Here's a betting and foretelling game for ye (i'm going to look this thread up again in 2012):

What'll be the Big Five in MMO's in 2012, and why do you think that?

My list:

- Guild Wars 2

- World of Warcraft

- Star Wars: The Old Republic

- Final Fantasy XIV

- The Secret World

Guild Wars 2 is a no-brainer to me. GW2's world will be larger than GW and the expansions combined, it has innovations like the dynamic events and the personal stories, and ANet has a reputation for polish equal to Blizzard's. The betas of GW were near to flawless, and that was 8 months before release. Since GW2 will be subfree, I expect GW2 to be a 2nd MMO for many that they'll be playing concurrent a 1st MMO sub they will keep running. Unless GW2 will draw them in that deep, that they will just let go of any MMO sub they were holding.

WoW is the only older MMO on the list, for the obvious reasons: there'll be CATA to keep fans occupied for a while plus the changes it will bring. I think though the flood of new MMO's will seriously diminish WoW's player population, and its age is starting to show, it'll look old, dated. But the influx of players of China, next to CATA, will compensate for the exodus of EU/US players somewhat, so I expect WoW still to have a number of  millions of players. Unless Activision/Blizzard screws things up too much with their payable service/itemshop course they're following at the moment.

SW ToR will have a great start, not that surprising since Bioware were able to invest a large amount of cash into it. Plus, it's Star Wars, and Bioware has shown how well it can do Star Wars with Knights of the Old Republic. But, how much they will retain of those initial high number of players will depend on how immersive and enjoyable their MMO world will be for the current generation of MMO gamers. It'll litterally be a difference of millions of subs they will hold if the ToR MMO will be just nice, or great.

Final Fantasy XIV has another experienced game company behind it, Square Enix. I think this will be the top Asian MMO in the years to come when it's being released. Also, it'll be the extra boost of Asian gamers that will put the player numbers of this MMO solidly in the Top 5. Plus, it'll be interesting to see if and how different FF XIV will be from the current generation MMO's and their gameplay, and if Square Enix can make its typically own flavor of gameplay work for MMO gamers.

The fifth spot will be a hard one to guess and the most unsure, but I'm betting on The Secret World. We've seen abundant amount of fantasy MMO's, a lot of science fiction MMO's. But The Secret World will be the first horror/urban fantasy MMO: magic that takes place in current times, all kinds of myths, (urban) legends and folklore that is true and can be explored, it's a great theme and that alone will intrigue many to give it a shot. Plus there's many people who like Cthulhu, Lovecraft's, Stephen King's and Neil Gaiman's work and they love to try out a game that is inspired by it. Next to that, the graphics look great and Funcom has a number of interesting innovations it wants to use. With the (relatively) good release of RotGS they have further shown that they can learn from their mistakes, they'll only mess it up when they release TSW before it's ready.

There's a number I didn't include in that Top 5: most important one, EVE Universe Online (EVE Online+Dust 514). If TSW fails, then EVE deserves that spot, even if the sub numbers will hover around 500k-700k in 2012. But if CCP manages to release Dust 514 as well as Incarna it will be a potent mix, and get a firm boost in players as well. Think of it, an online world that is spread out over 2 games, that will have massive space battles and massive ground battles, where victories and defeats make a difference upon the universe, where planets can be exploited, where people can gather up and meet in spacestations and all this is happening not in separate servers and game worlds, but all taking place in one world.

I didn't add CCP's World of Darkness and Blizzard's second MMO as well because I don't think they will be released before 2013, else they would be serious candidates for the Top 5. The next spots will see a fierce competition between old batchers as a Aion, LotrO, EQ2 and AoC and the upcomers TERA, Rift, and Blade & Soul, where the newer games overall will have the edge in player numbers, especially including the large numbers of Asian gamers.

TL:DR

the upcoming, new generation will definitely make its mark in the MMO market, and have establised themselves in 2012. Players will flock to them and will see the difference with the older MMO's, in favor of the new ones. Only WoW despite its age will be kept standing among the newer MMO's due to its sheer volume of current players and expansion in China. But it'll be MMO games like GW2, ToR, FFXIV, TERA, TSW, EVE Online/Dust 514, TSW and Rift that will dominate the MMO field in 2012. Don't believe it? Then post your own prediction list for 2012, plus the reason why those.

1. WoW

2: SW: TOR

3: EVE

4: Guild Wars 2

There won't be more than 4 big MMOs in 2012.  WoW will be bigger than 3 next combined.

Would'nt it have made more sence to say whats the big 5 mmos in 2011 given all the ones being talked about thus far have a release date next year . As for mmos with a likly 2012 release date proberbly things like the Warhammer 40k mmo or Gods and Heroes ,Possibly un-named but rumoured games like the Elder Scrolls or Fallout mmos .One thing we can be certain of WoW will be there and still very popular and I think its a fair assumption that StarWars and GW2 will do well too but then again they will be games most likly to be released sometime next spring or summer .

I actually think Tera: The Exiled Realm of Arborea got a fair chance of reaching the top.

"Cinematic" official trailers: http://www.tera-online.com/media/videos.php

Unofficial unmodified ingame footage of all classes in combat: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIMJeyPhjEo

Game features some very interesting combat physics and sure is keen to the eye!

The game is scheduled to be released "Winter 2010/2011".

Originally posted by yayitsandy

Would'nt it have made more sence to say whats the big 5 mmos in 2011 given all the ones being talked about thus far have a release date next year .

Nope, it was meant as a pulsecheck of what the state of affairs will be in the course of 2012.

Some release dates will be changed as usual onto a later date, probably ending up in the end of 2011, start of 2012. Also, it's more interesting to see how the MMO landscape will be when things have settled a bit, after the first few months that a MMO has come out. How many players will keep playing the new MMO then will be the true measure of its success, not the initial masses that will try it out for the first month or two.

Agreed...this is the most probable top 5 of 2012

Roma Victor 2  :D

EvE

WoW

Guild Wars 2

Xyson

Hmm... Predictable list... Ohh and you forgot TERA which wil propably not be on the top 5 list tho and more innovative Blade and Soul by NCsoft.

Blade and Soul - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_beydVTs6JQ

Hey, I mentioned TERA, only not on the TOP 5 :) 

(quoting part of OP):

"The next spots will see a fierce competition between old batchers as a Aion, LotrO, EQ2 and AoC and the upcomers TERA, Rift, and Blade & Soul, where the newer games overall will have the edge in player numbers, especially including the large numbers of Asian gamers."

I thought TSW and FFXIV not to be that predictable for the Big Five, since EVE Online (if DUST514 & Incarna gets released), TERA and Rift are good contenders too, especially when you include the Asian player base.

Originally posted by Vrika

1. WoW

2: SW: TOR

3: EVE

4: Guild Wars 2

There won't be more than 4 big MMOs in 2012.  WoW will be bigger than 3 next combined.

 Overall number of western players: Why only SA/US/EU/Aus markets? It is the only market that counts for us players.

1. WOW - 5+ M

2. Diablo 3 - 2 M

3. GW 2 - 1 M

4. SW:TOR - 0.5 M

5. EVE - 0.4 M

Only 1 and 5 are games that actually exist, so the number 2 - 4 is just "fortune telling". I rank them above EVE (300K) anyway because of the sheer focus and hype of these games. They could fall of the list anytime as actual gameplay will be even less than I expect (as was the case with Lotro, Aoc, War, Tabula, Aion-West etc...Something the OP should think about next time).

WOW is timeless (just like Mario graphs) and Blizzard will keep it up (even beyond their MMO project 2)

D3 is certainly an on line fantasy game (and I include it here because it will have more impact on WOW than the others)That's why it will be in a combined subscription package available through BattleNet (not the playing but the PvP and extra paid content)

GW2 we don't know if it will be extra good, but it has no subs, so cheap to keep it installed on the HD.

SW:TOR(¨*) : its core selling points are the liniair prerecorded voice and movies, which is simply fluff in on line gaming: under 400K long term subs (*) if they don't change its linair single player experience focus in time. 

EVE will be there because SW is yet again not a fully fledged space opera and so EVE could grow by 25%.

the rest will be the niche market. Yes even the FTP ones.

Originally posted by cyphers

Hey, I mentioned TERA, only not on the TOP 5 :) 

 

(quoting part of OP):

"The next spots will see a fierce competition between old batchers as a Aion, LotrO, EQ2 and AoC and the upcomers TERA, Rift, and Blade & Soul, where the newer games overall will have the edge in player numbers, especially including the large numbers of Asian gamers."

 

I thought TSW and FFXIV not to be that predictable for the Big Five, since EVE Online (if DUST514 & Incarna gets released), TERA and Rift are good contenders too, especially when you include the Asian player base.

ooops! Sorry for that i just noticed. I didn't read your post fully...

My list:

WoW

FFXIV

GW2

SWToR

TERA/TSW

Honestly, WoW will remain huge because it's fanbase is self-created. Given the battle.net support and Real ID features for their games, Blizzard's community is a self-evolving entity. WoW's numbers will drop themselves, but much of their fanbase will be retained through their other products, such as SW2 and D3.

FFXIV will be the next contender because of the fiercely loyal fanbase they created with their original game. However, SE seems to be changing enough of what many felt was wrong with XI to give XIV a try.

GW2 is a bit of a darkhorse in my opinion, they could easily slide anywhere up and down the list. I think a lot of their success hinges upon how well the dynamic content system works out. If it truly creates a unique experience and not just a bunch of scripted events with one or two outcomes, I think we'll see GW2 grab a considerable share of the online masses.

SW:ToR is the game which I think will wind up being a disappointment for many, but will bring many newer Star Wars fans to the genre, as in the younger generation who grew up watching the most recent trilogy. ToR is backed by Bioware which has a proven track record in the gaming world, but from what we've been shown, I don't think ToR is going to appeal to as many veteran mmorpgers as Bioware hopes.

TERA  is a worthy mention because of the interesting features behind the game. This game will most likely appeal to a similar mass that wanted to enjoy Aion, but wound up being disappointed by it. From some of the raid features that have been shown on various trailers, TERA might also appeal to more old school raiders.

TSW is also worth mentioning mostly due to the unique setting in the mmorpg genre. TSW is looking to blend horror, sci-fi, conspiracy and urban fantasy hopefully into a setting that's very unique. TSW has some other features that will make the game unique, but I think it's largest appeal will be the setting.

I am surprised no one included Warhammer 40k Online. THQ and Vigil have been developing since 2007 and been keeping everything secret. If you follow the 3-5 year development cycle of most MMOs, it should be out in 2012. Look for more info in on it in a few months.

I don't know.

Maybe GW2 and TOR along with Earthrise.

I expect Darkfall and MO to come into their own by then and EvE is going to be pretty crazy by then with its expansions.

I know its against everything i stand for on these forums but WoW with cat and its new endgame direction might be a lot better.

So let see.

New Games: TOR, GW2, Earthrise

Improved games by 2012: EvE, MO, DF, WoW.

I am waiting for the following games in this order:

Star Wars: The Old Republic (star wars is always good)
Blade & Soul (I get to platy a martial artist again Teras Kasi ftw)

Guild Wars 2 (lost of new ideas here and if implemented right it will be a great game)

Rift: Planes of Telara (cant wait looks nice ... love the lore of the game)
The Secret World    "Horror" mmo kinda ... H.P. Lovecraft inspired nice lore ... hope they dont mess it up
Final Fantasy XIV (stunning game ... will be my first Final Fantasy game)
Black Prophecy (ELITE kind of game if any of you remember that game ... cant wait)

Jumpgate Evolution

Seems more of an arcade kind of shooter, and not sure it will ever come out but will give it a go if it does

Originally posted by commanderjim

Roma Victor 2  :D

EvE

WoW

Guild Wars 2

Xyson

Xyson?  Open world PvP is automatic niche standing methinks. Matter of fact should just change that to meknows. :P

I think the OP is pretty close to what things will be. I saw someone put D3 on list....didnt know it was going sub base. I am looking forward to the SPG portion. Over the yrs, my family(me, wife, and 2 daughters) have each logged tons of time on our copy of D2/ToB.

Probably the most played game ever in this house....followed by Might and Magic 3 collection(not including MMOs). 

The Old Republic. 

I will give GW2 a second look, if it turns out to have real progression, and not the sort of side ways progression of GW, which I don't really care for. 

Originally posted by freizo

I actually think Tera: The Exiled Realm of Arborea got a fair chance of reaching the top.

 

"Cinematic" official trailers: http://www.tera-online.com/media/videos.php

Unofficial unmodified ingame footage of all classes in combat: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIMJeyPhjEo

 

Game features some very interesting combat physics and sure is keen to the eye!

The game is scheduled to be released "Winter 2010/2011".

I agree.. This one also has peaked my interest - ALOT :)

Originally posted by Ikonic

I am surprised no one included Warhammer 40k Online. THQ and Vigil have been developing since 2007 and been keeping everything secret. If you follow the 3-5 year development cycle of most MMOs, it should be out in 2012. Look for more info in on it in a few months.

Has there been news that it'll be released in 2011/2012? I haven't read much about it yet, but if it will launch in that period I expect there'll be a large group of fans and other interested people who'd like to give it a try.

THQ is a good development company that had made some exciting single player games, but they will have to fight back against people's hesitance of giving it a try after the failure of the other Games Workshop title, Warhammer Online.

I expect WoW will start to be included in a package deal towards 2011/2012, as some others have hinted at, where WoW will be part of a Battlenet service where your account will also give you access to other Blizzard (and maybe other non-Blizzard) games like Starcraft, SC2, D3, league and tournament play, this all for a monthly fee. On top of that I expect there'll be a number of added services to which you can additionally subscribe and shoppable items that you'll be able to buy, The flying mount and the AH service I see as the first tentative baby steps in this new course; when fully developed and Battlenet 2.0 fully functional up and running I expect it to go more along the lines of Facebook, with added applets, tools and other gimmicks being made available to enhance your enjoyment of Blizzard (and maybe also other Activision) games. For a price.

Only time will tell if the pricing will be reasonable, but my bet is that a lot of Blizzard/WoW fans are willing to cough up far more than currently, without any qualms, and what large company could resist such temptation? Very few. Reap while the money is good.

I'll also be interested if there'll be other "next gen" developments in sight in 2012 - like modified virtual world access via iPhone and other devices - or some other game mechanics than pure sandbox, theme park, old school or for example the tank-healer-dps trinity, but we'll see then. So far it looks to be ANet with GW2 that will go the farthest in trying different stuff out, but how different it will really be is something to find out when the game arrives.

edit:  I saw the trailers of TERA too, the combat looks very interesting and dynamic as well.

I've checked out Tera as well.  It has some promise.  If Aion delivers on everything that has been promised (compensation on current/avoidance of future excess grinding) then it's future could look bright as well.

One major contender that looks like hasn't been considered is the WoD MMO.  I think people grossly underestimate the number of people looking forward to this.