Originally posted by digitalruse

My crystal ball is on the fritz, so I'll get back to you.

Just curious, what purpose does such speculation serve? What data are you hoping to gain here? Should we expect a thread six months from now that says, "I was right!" if such an event does occur?

Not an attack, just trying to understand your intentions.

-DR

No purpose.  Zero.   Same stupid questions ad nausem.   "What if my belly button ruptures?"  "Will I ever have an original or educated thought?".   It's become an internet forum staple.

It's never ending and there's always a knucklehead to fill the bill.

Aion will do fine.  It will end up like EQ2.  It will be a safe bet as far as content, population, and longevity.

Originally posted by ab29x

Originally posted by digitalruse

My crystal ball is on the fritz, so I'll get back to you.

Just curious, what purpose does such speculation serve? What data are you hoping to gain here? Should we expect a thread six months from now that says, "I was right!" if such an event does occur?

Not an attack, just trying to understand your intentions.

-DR

 

No purpose.  Zero.   Same stupid questions ad nausem.   "What if my belly button ruptures?"  "Will I ever have an original or educated thought?".   It's become an internet forum staple.

It's never ending and there's always a knucklehead to fill the bill.

Aion will do fine.  It will end up like EQ2.  It will be a safe bet as far as content, population, and longevity.

 

 

 

 

Beats out your post of HAMMEH TIME!

There is no such thing as a stupid post, just stupid answers.

This thread is merely a study on the MMORPG player base.

Eleventy trazillion

Originally posted by Markn12

Originally posted by Rajen

Originally posted by zunarn

Ok just curious how well you guys think Aion will do. WoW has 2.5m subs in North America but of course that didn't happen overnight. I'm predicting at least 200k subs since no other major mmo being released this year. It will be great to look back at this 6 months from now and see how people did in their prediction. Please no trolling!

 

 

 

 

The game will lose a ton of subs with swtor and ffxiv coming out in 2010.

 

Also the game not being known outside of the forum goer MMO community means it won't be that big. It just doesn't look as good compared to ffxiv and swtor, they make it look out of date. I am going to come back to these forums in 2010 and probably get a good laugh on all the fanboys who are brown nosing this game until they can't breathe.

 

So your saying a game thats been out a year and has a few million players in asia doesnt look as good as 2 games that are not even in beta and probably not in alpha yet ?  Drop the blinders and fanboyism for FF series and Starwars please.    How can anyone say FF14 or Starwars will be better when they have no clue how them games will turn out at all ? 

With the exception of WoW, it seems to me that the more popular a game is in the East, the less popular it is in the West.  Even Western made games that are considered mediocre, tend to have more Western subscribers than the best games that come from the East.
 

I will say after the updates which give more areas to PvE in....close to one million. 

This game will probably sell a million copies, but after 6 months will be whittled down to no more than 500k would be my guess.  There simply is nothing new in this game to hold more subscribers than that.  It's not a bad game, but it's similar to pretty much every mmo out there right now.

100-200k

Every new mmorpg gets hype like this before launch and then once it's actually launched you realise the people giving it the hype is like 100 people who are loud on the forums and the game flops.

Originally posted by Wickedjelly

Originally posted by EduardoASG

there wont be Aion in 6 months.. in 6 months everyone gonna be playing something else.

Aion is nice but wont hold people above 1 or 2 month subscription in my opinion.

Do you have multiple personalities or something? In anothe topic you say if they can avoid the shortcomings of AoC and War it could be a hit then here you say it won't last six months. 

Ugh.. i have only played the beta.. and thats where i base this opinion.

Lets see what will the game be like at release and if they can avoid those errors.. might be an hit.. if not, it wont.

Ok ...wait ....just got back from the future.  The answer is......946,034...... well at least on Jan. 20th 2010. 

I'd say after the honey moon each 150k in NA and EU. Not to bash the game, but that is the average in the post-wow era.

Originally posted by zunarn

Originally posted by ab29x

Originally posted by digitalruse

My crystal ball is on the fritz, so I'll get back to you.

Just curious, what purpose does such speculation serve? What data are you hoping to gain here? Should we expect a thread six months from now that says, "I was right!" if such an event does occur?

Not an attack, just trying to understand your intentions.

-DR

 

No purpose.  Zero.   Same stupid questions ad nausem.   "What if my belly button ruptures?"  "Will I ever have an original or educated thought?".   It's become an internet forum staple.

It's never ending and there's always a knucklehead to fill the bill.

Aion will do fine.  It will end up like EQ2.  It will be a safe bet as far as content, population, and longevity.

 

 

 

 

 

Beats out your post of HAMMEH TIME!

There is no such thing as a stupid post, just stupid answers.

This thread is merely a study on the MMORPG player base.

Completely and utterly wrong.  There's are many many stupid questions and posts in this world, just like this topic.

'How many apples will my apple tree have on it in 16 days? '  'If I don't brush my dog how much do you think he will shed?'

This is no study professor, It's a generic yawn of a worthless question.  Check back in 7ish months and wah-lah, answered.

 For what it offers and looking at how the market is today. I would guess about 100-150k active subscribers after 6 months. 

Originally posted by ab29x

Originally posted by zunarn

Originally posted by ab29x

Originally posted by digitalruse

My crystal ball is on the fritz, so I'll get back to you.

Just curious, what purpose does such speculation serve? What data are you hoping to gain here? Should we expect a thread six months from now that says, "I was right!" if such an event does occur?

Not an attack, just trying to understand your intentions.

-DR

 

No purpose.  Zero.   Same stupid questions ad nausem.   "What if my belly button ruptures?"  "Will I ever have an original or educated thought?".   It's become an internet forum staple.

It's never ending and there's always a knucklehead to fill the bill.

Aion will do fine.  It will end up like EQ2.  It will be a safe bet as far as content, population, and longevity.

 

 

 

 

 

Beats out your post of HAMMEH TIME!

There is no such thing as a stupid post, just stupid answers.

This thread is merely a study on the MMORPG player base.

 

Completely and utterly wrong.  There's are many many stupid questions and posts in this world, just like this topic.

'How many apples will my apple tree have on it in 16 days? '  'If I don't brush my dog how much do you think he will shed?'

This is no study professor, It's a generic yawn of a worthless question.  Check back in 7ish months and wah-lah, answered.

 

Still beats your moronic HAMMEH TIME! reply any day of te week lol.
 

Dont take it too seriously bud or any other poster, still only a game.

Some of you guys take this forum wayyyyyyy to seriously and this really proves my point.

RELAX! HAMMEH TIME!

About 200k or less.

Aion ain't that special.

Originally posted by Forumfall

About 200k or less.

 

Aion ain't that special.

Agreed... and especially after seeing some footage from TERA Online.  I think I'll skip on Aion and wait for TERA instead.  I think Blue Hole Studio might have a winner on their hands.

Depends on how quick NCsoft can kick out content. If fast then it should retain 500k or so subs and if not less than 200k in NA.

Originally posted by Oyjord

" How many North American subscribers will Aion have in 6 months?"

 

Well, how many 14 yr old girls are gaming in North America?  It seems the game only appeals to said demographic, with all of it's fey male and schoolgirl female avatars and animations and sound, and its pretty glowy soft graphics.  Ugh.

we all know you prefer big strong men isnt that right? you like to feel their muscles.

Originally posted by ronan32

Originally posted by Oyjord

" How many North American subscribers will Aion have in 6 months?"

 

Well, how many 14 yr old girls are gaming in North America?  It seems the game only appeals to said demographic, with all of it's fey male and schoolgirl female avatars and animations and sound, and its pretty glowy soft graphics.  Ugh.

 

we all know you prefer big strong men isnt that right? you like to feel their muscles.

I'm cool with "fey males" lol
 

The vast majority of prediction tools people use for things like this are basically their own prejudices. Whether it be for or against.

Years ago so many people thought WoW looked too cartoony and was too kiddish to survive and yet now it is the king of the proverbial hill. So many people thought Eve was too slow and hardcore to survive for very long and yet now it is the only MMO to show steady, if slow, growth over time. So many people thought that SOE would never ruin SWG and that the game would continue on into the halls of legend and yet it proceeded into the halls of infamy by becoming such a monstrosity.

This industry has proven to be anything but predictable when those predictions are based on prejudice. Aion does have wide appeal to be sure, but it more or less holds appeal for the more hardcore of us out there. The kidlet crowd of mmo gamers don't have the attention span to deal with Aion. This is mostly because they are also the young end of the WoW generation of MMO fans. In six months Aion will most likely hold at least a million subs in the west. It already has roughly 2-4 million in the east, the number so varied because of conflicting reports.

The upper threshold for Aion subs will most likely lay in the 2.6-3 million range for western markets as a whole. I can't see it's more traditional (note: 'hardcore' as many people deem it) approach to RPG's pulling in much more than that. WoW has about 4-5 million subs in the west, which right now is pretty much their entire consumer base since it went down in Asia and is still not back up. Aion isn't really any less accessible than WoW. The main difference between the games is that WoW has moved a MASSIVE amount of grinding to end-game with stuff that seems like content, but really isn't. When people complete these grinds most don't feel like they accomplished anything. The 'grind' in Aion rests more with leveling and making consumables, but the leveling pace isn't any slower than LOTRO.

Anyway, in six months I see Aion having probably around 1.2 million subs in total for western markets. Not much more or less.

Hmmm-I know the answer to this question-isn't it similar to if CO has 200k subscribers and Aion has 300k subscribers and they are both hurtling at each other at the speed of light, at what point will they collide?  I need my slide rule.

Seriously? I think 1-2 million subscribers if not more

TBH, Warhammer had the strength of a quite popular IP behind it.  I know there are those who see Aion as another asian grinder/polished f2p-quality game.

They've got my sub when it releases, though.  I haven't managed to get into pvp during the CB events, so that remains to be seen.

Being realistic, I don't even think it's appropriate for the poll to have a 50k - 200k options.

If there wont be any new content patch for level 50 range, it will swindle to 170k- 200k from 250k potential (at maximum they could be lower for all different reasons like lacking translation, lags, bots etc). They must provide us with atleast one contentpatch within the next 6months, unless they want to lose too many subscriber. The current half year old version provides us with an actually "finished" product and there are right now no more major contentpatches planed. Most MMOs are released half finished.

Its a simple psychological effect. If you give people all content in the first month, after 6 months more will be bored of the game, as in the case where you provided them 3/4 of the finished content in the first month and then added the last quarter after like 3 months. Even though its still the same. So even though Aion will be released in a finished version due to the "lack of updates" people will get bored faster. They have to add atleast a minor contenpatch, just to keep the playerbase entertained.

If they will charge us extra for the next v2.x content in form of an purchaseable addon for more than 20$, the playbase will shrink to less than 200k. NA plays a game thats already published for about a whole year. They might add 2.0 content and including a raise of the levelcap within the next 6-7 months, as its official they dont plan any more major v1.X contentupdates. Far more than 6 months without any update would even hurt the Korean playerbase.

If they will provide it for free and fund it with monthly fees i guess somewhat between 250 if the addon will be released after the 6th month. About 270k-300k if the addon has been released a while before the 6th month, so the generic peak after a new contentpatch/addon still has effect on the subscriptionnumbers in the 6th month.

If they do neither plan to provide us with atleast a minor contentupdate and will charge us after half a year for an addon again then the numbers will  probably fall even lower than AoC. No one pays so much in such a short time just for an MMO

since i have heard only good things from beta players so far and its one of the few mmo's coming out soon i think it will have over 250k subs by a few months and if it truly is that good i would be willing to bet it hits 1 mil in the western hemisphere by a full year.  hopefully it doesnt pull a conan or WH and flop big time

I am absolutely sure beyond the shadow of any doubt that in one years time AION will have more than one subscriber to be sure, unless I am mistaken.