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10/30/09 3:57:00 PM#26
Remember, the announcements are not to keep up to date information about the games population level. The press releases are only done when they reach a new total subscriber milestone. The lack of press release just suggests wow has not hit 12 million subscribers. I'm sure if they did hit 12 million we would have heard about it. I do agree that the fiasco in china has really screwed things up. The game could be growing leaps and bounds in the west, but as a result of the chinese government the overall total might be down or at the same level. Hard to tell at this point.
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10/30/09 4:13:01 PM#27
Are they fibbing about sub numbers? Probably maybe and evan if they are most likely not to the extent that the rest of the MMO publishers fib about their sub numbers. So when all is said and done it doesn't really matter they have subs in the millions while the rest of the big names have subs under half a million. Not something worth arguing about really. The lesser of two evils is still evil. |
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10/30/09 4:35:11 PM#28
Originally posted by Palebane
Last time I played WoW was about a year ago and I played during prime time on one of the top 5 most populated servers, and the game and main towns were not that populated and no more populated than Everquest on Mayong. And Everquest has nowhere near the sub numbers WoW claims to have. |
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Originally posted by Zorndorf Go back to what the definition of a subscriber is... you are late but we had this discussion. You aren't showing me anything I haven't seen, I've seen the financials and listened to the webcasts from activision/blizzard - no breaking news to me, I linked the 10 million post from Blizzard to have a nice clean 5 million to work from. Gotta love that so many ppl have to be insulting on this site. Are you here to discuss or get your jollies trying to toss out insults? The definition is in the first paragraph or so. The cards in china are down there near the bottom to explain that all cards are not equal. I don't know how much more I can do than color code it - if I hadn't done that it would have been called a "wall of text". Damned if you do or don't fits - don't call something ridiculous if you aren't even going to read it. You said 11.5 I stated 10 for ease of math. You stating 11.5 doesn't change the card types and it doesn't change the subscriber description. Once again, YOU are assuming subscriber means one human being without reading the description from Blizzard themselves. |
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10/30/09 5:06:00 PM#30
Originally posted by a_name
From your original post and this response it sounds like you think they are counting the number of subscription cards being sold as 1 subscriber each. A time card still gets associated with a game account. The definition states they count people who have paid access to an account during a 1 month period.
Your speculation has no real merit to support it that I can see, because an INDIVIDUAL buying 1 time card is still the same INDIVIDUAL who buys 10 time cards. An INDIVIDUAL account can only be one of two things during the one month period they count total subscribers: active or not active.
Read the last line of the definition, they do not count expired time cards. If a person buy 4 time cards and uses them all during the month, then only 1 is active. So they don't count the other 3.
"The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards."
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10/30/09 5:23:33 PM#31
Sales figures speak for themselves as to WoW's sub numbers, these are the 2009 offical NPD PC monthly sales charts (for north america). Not only is Wrath at the top when theres no big release for that month but WoW and the battle chest is never out of the top 10. January 2009 Febuary 2009 March 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 |
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Comnitus
 Novice Member
Joined: 6/03/09
Revenge is a dish best served with mayonnaise and those little cheesy things on sticks. |
10/30/09 5:28:29 PM#32
Originally posted by colddog Why doesn't the OP respond to this post? Because he can't. Silly thread.
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Originally posted by Daffid011
From your original post and this response it sounds like you think they are counting the number of subscription cards being sold as 1 subscriber each. A time card still gets associated with a game account. The definition states they count people who have paid access to an account during a 1 month period.
Your speculation has no real merit to support it that I can see, because an INDIVIDUAL buying 1 time card is still the same INDIVIDUAL who buys 10 time cards. An INDIVIDUAL account can only be one of two things during the one month period they count total subscribers: active or not active.
Read the last line of the definition, they do not count expired time cards. If a person buy 4 time cards and uses them all during the month, then only 1 is active. So they don't count the other 3.
"The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards."
This is the first post that raises a valid point, kudos! Here's why I think that's not true. If you purchase 3 and apply 3 none are expired. Even when you deplete the first you still have 2 active cards. You don't have to apply the cards to an account for them to be active, the fact that they were purchased makes them pre-paid and their validation is what guarantees they are active, it's only when you associate them with an account that they become something that could be spent. Let's say someone buys 10 cards. They hold onto 9 but they put 1 into their account. Do they not still have 9 active cards that aren't expired, yes, just because blizzard can't associate them with an account doesn't count that they weren't sold and I believe they are counting them because they don't know if the person is going to use them so they count it as a sub anyway - it's sold, how else do you account for the money? Until the card is applied to an account it has to count as something and for their marketing, its another subscriber. |
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10/30/09 5:42:42 PM#34
I really do not see how hard it is to understand that each ACTIVE account counts as a subscriber (i.e. time on the account *gasp*) I mean, is it really hard to understand that an account is counted as a subscriber if A. First month of play (just bought game, still using the month included with the game) B. Using a Game Card (NA/EU) C. Free month of Recruit a friend/Scroll of Resurrection (i.e. new account created with original game to play for the first time, and pay for the first game, or got another ACCOUNT to subscribe for another month) D. Credit Card Recurring Sub E. Card/Points or what not they are called in Asia....(aka, ability to use some of their time)
So in the end I am pretty sure we can boil it down to
An account is a subscriber as long as it has the ability to log in (i.e. time on the account), not counting any first time free trials, burning crusade free trials, wrath of the lich king free trials, or Scroll of resurrection free trial portion......... |
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10/30/09 5:46:46 PM#35
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10/30/09 5:48:15 PM#36
Originally posted by a_name This is the first post that raises a valid point, kudos! Here's why I think that's not true. If you purchase 3 and apply 3 none are expired. Even when you deplete the first you still have 2 active cards. You don't have to apply the cards to an account for them to be active, the fact that they were purchase makes them pre-paid, it's only when you associate them with an account that they become something that could be spent. Let's say someone buys 10 cards. They hold onto 9 but they put 1 into their account. Do they not still have 9 active cards that aren't expired, yes, just because blizzard can't associate them with an account doesn't count that they weren't sold and I believe they are counting them because they don't know if the person is going to use them so they count it as a sub anyway - it's sold, how else do you account for the money?Until the card is applied to an account it has to count as something and for their marketing, its another subscriber. Those 9 cards are not ACTIVE, the definition does not say they count "cards sold" just "active pre-paid cards" and to be active it has to have been used and added to an account. |
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10/30/09 5:50:38 PM#37
And your logic fails, if a gametimecard would be active after initial sell, then it would also expire, even without really using it. It just doesn't make any sense.
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10/30/09 5:52:28 PM#38
Games shouldn't even use subscription numbers because it is flawed. I can go buy a pre-paid card, make an account and never play but still be counted as an active subscriber. When a system like this is flawed there are just so many ways to get around it but yet still be technically correct. |
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10/30/09 5:54:06 PM#39
Originally posted by SaintViktor
It isn't really that flawed. The reasoning they put these details out is mostly for internal reasoning to please stockholders. if some one pays money to buy the game, as well as the gamecard, and yet doesn't play it...it is still money coming in thus should and does count as an active subscriber |
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10/30/09 5:58:16 PM#40
How is that flawed? You still have the subscription, even if you don't use it. You don't need to participate to be a active subscriber, the one doesn't exclude the other.
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We've reached our empasse then. To me the word activated imparts that the card has a key that can be used to open up the time to a specific account. When the time is depleted, it's also inactive, inactive would indicate that the key combination were invalid or that the time was spent. To others the word activated means that the card was entered into the website and associated with an account. I don't see a solution to this because there is no way to define the word in it's usage other than from Blizzard themselves and I doubt they care to hear from any of us. Even the dictionary agrees with both. ac·tive Pronunciation (ktv)
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10/30/09 5:58:32 PM#42
Originally posted by SaintViktor
But you'll only be counted as a sub for a month. What should the companies do, telephone every single sub with active time to see if they are currently playing? out of all the companies Blizzard is the most upfront. people can disagree with the Definition but you cannot with the figure that comes from that definition. |
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10/30/09 6:02:40 PM#43
Originally posted by coffee
But you'll only be counted as a sub for a month. What should the companies do, telephone every single sub with active time to see if they are currently playing? out of all the companies Blizzard is the most upfront. people can disagree with the Definition but you cannot with the figure that comes from that definition.
I disagree with this. CCP is far more up front about sub numbers than Blizzard. |
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10/30/09 6:06:00 PM#44
Originally posted by -aLpHa-
Because people consider and are under the impression that an active subscriber is someone who actually pays to play the game ? Thats like selling out all the tickets for a concert but yet noone showing up. Like I said, technically the terms they use are correct but since noone actually has to be there to be considered an active user the system is flawed. |
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10/30/09 6:06:05 PM#45
No, you are just wrong and i can only do a facepalm to your reasoning. Just think about it. You buy a 30 day GC, now from your definition, it should be active from this moment on. If you buy 3 30 day GC's and only put 1 key down, you get +30 days on your account, if you don't put the other 2 keys down, the cards expires after 30 days and you wasted 2 cards.
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10/30/09 6:09:38 PM#46
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Originally posted by -aLpHa- Where is your source that states that points expire if not used in 30 days from purchase in china? If you don't have one then you are just making things up.
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10/30/09 6:16:13 PM#48
Originally posted by SaintViktor
You gave me alot of thougths... After I read what you typed I just had to do some calculations, now I'm not any expert in this area but I can do basic maths. Just to make a quick check on your theory. And plsease note that I 'm using numbers that is more easy to calculate with. So, let's say that: WoW have 10 000 000 subscribers. In reality they have 2 000 000 subscribers. 2 000 000 x $15 = $30 000 000 $75 000 000 - $120 000 000= -$90 000 000 Eh, I don't think they do this. Ok so they have 8 000 000 subscribers but they falsely buys 2 000 000 subscriptions and cards. Yeah! They could afford this. Hmm, that was odd? They seem to make more money if they don't buy any subscriptions themself. Ahh, maybe they give their employes free subscriptions to the amount of 2 000 000 accounts. Or why even bother with that why don't they just open up 2 millions accounts themself. That could work. OH WAIT! While I am writing this something hits me... Even if they would give away merely 10 000 subscriptions to bolster their numbers it would be leaked somehow. Think of if they would do this by the millions. Yeah, surely the amount of people that pays for the game and not play is neglectable and also accountable towards their subscription numbers without making it flawed. Isn't it?
I'm so broke. I can't even pay attention. |
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Wizardry
 Apprentice Member
Joined: 8/27/04
Remove quests,bosses and trigger them back in is called Dynamic events now?lol..i think not. |
10/30/09 6:16:27 PM#49
First of all i commented on that NPD list before ,you might as well throw it out the window.I stumbled onto it researching the legitimacy of EA's game Spore being rated number 2 before it even hit the shelves.At the time i did a lot of homework and found that most of the games in the list directly fund that marketing company. I did a lot of math on the whole WOW numbers thing before,i don't feel like getting into it,but i figured the ACTUAL concurrent player count is around 4-5 million no where near the 11 million players, people think or try to claim there is.It falls under the same reasoning as AION. That reasoning is that there is a MASSIVE amount of RMT activity going on in both those games.Even though Aion's botting is a little more noticeable,IMO WOW still tops the chart by leaps and bounds for RMT use.I am sure most are aware of add ons that allow multiple accounts to be played via ONE player?this is how RMT utilize 5+ bots to one account.There is legit players that also do this,so there is no way in hell you could ever try to convince ANYONE that there is 11 million actual players.RMT do NOT count as players.Multi controlled accounts do NOT count as multiple players. Then you figure in how many TIME card accounts expire EVERY day,you actually think they have someone totaling up those massive numbers ongoing?An expired time card is not an expired account,they can re activate it the very next day,i highly doubt Blizzard auto removes that account on an expired time card.I would lean closer to the fact that every time someone activates a time card,they claim it as a NEW account,that is MUCH easier than tracking on/off accounts via time cards. Anyhoot,like i said after you figure everything in and realistically ONLY account for REAL players ,the actual player count is around 4-5 million.AION is almost in the same boat,although i doubt multi bot use from one player is as active as in WOW,there is still a TON of RMT activity,they make up a VERY large amount of the accounts. http://www.youtube.com/user/Napolianboo#p/u/15/rCYLLQCNc1w |
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10/30/09 6:24:21 PM#50
Originally posted by Wizardry
Are you actually saying that it is harder to distuingished an inactive account using timecards compared to using VISA? I'm so broke. I can't even pay attention. |
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