HYPE,

Of the course the numbers are not really. I am just using an example of  known marketing techniques which dictates that any type of market for a product can expect on average a 1- 10 % return based on the population being targeted. I said one to 1 -5% for online MMO's because online marketing is a bit more complicated with variables such as spam and stuff

When I was running promotional events for Clubs in NYC. The average return on any marketed event was 1-10% meaning for every lets 1000 flyers I would have promoters hand out  you could expect anything from 10 to 100 folks showing. This might sound small to you in numbers, but at any given event promoted it had at least 10,000 flyers printed and distributed. Remember this is distributed in NYC which on avr has at least 3-5 million people in it at any given time. I am only aiming for 10,000 people and out of that at best 10% will show which is 1000 people. These were some of the most successful events as the venues were packed.  Most of my events averaged about 400-500 people for spaces which could only hold 700  people at most. I tended to promote lounges more then Big Clubs. Lounges are easier to work with but i digress.

Apply that concept to StarWars in the same fashion. Let say you have X amount of fans for StarWars as a product in general. You need to first figure out an estimate of how many of those fans actually play PC Games. (You can promote to none PC gamers as well but trying to figure out your return on those types of variables is more complicated.) Then from there you deduce that if X amount play PC games and know that SWTOR is being created 1-5% percent might be interested which is very good  in marketing sense if you get 5% or higher. If you have a pool of 10,000,000 possible customers and you get 5% of them to buy the game we are talking about 500,000 gamers.

if you haven't noticed in most successful games they only sell about a few million copies. That is great numbers when your looking at the total population of the gamers market.

Please read the following  article which explains my point further:

http://gigaom.com/2007/06/13/top-ten-most-popular-mmos/

And mind you this was written in 2007 and they used an estimate "For all intents and purposes, the most popular MMOs represent an estimated 50-75% of the total MMO market (30-60 million active users.)"

Wow is listed at 8.5 million that is almost 30% of the total market at the low end of the scale!! ( and about 15% at the higher end).

That is a what we call a RUNAWAY Success my friend. Nobody expected that  or could have predicted it either.

And runaway successes are not easily reproduced.

Further information about the Selling of products -

from : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warcraft_III

July 3, 2002

Warcraft III proved to be one of the most anticipated and popular computer game releases ever, with 4.5 million units shipped to retail stores and over one million units sold within a month.[3] Warcraft III won many awards including "Game of the Year" from more than six different publications.[4]

from : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Wars:_Knights_of_the_Old_Republic

The Xbox version of Knights of the Old Republic went gold on July 9, 2003 with a release date of July 16.[16] It sold 250,000 copies in the first four days of its release, making Knights of the Old Republic the fastest-selling Xbox title at the time of its release.[17] Following the game's release, it was announced that free downloadable content would be available through Xbox Live at the end of the year.[18] The PC version of the game went gold on November 11, 2003 and was released on November 18.[19] It was re-released as part of the Star Wars: The Best of PC collection in 2006.[20]

from http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=16253

8. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 1,130,000

Xbox U.S. Sales (Through May 2005)
1. Halo 2 - 4,660,000
2. Halo - 4,055,000
3. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell - 1,515,000
4. Grand Theft Auto Double Pack - 1,350,000
5. Project Gotham Racing - 1,210,000
6. Madden NFL 2005 - 1,200,000
7. ESPN NFL 2K5 - 1,180,000
8. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 1,130,000
9. Fable - 1,005,000
10. Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon - 990,000
11. Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind - 955,000
12. Need for Speed: Underground 2 - 950,000
13. Dead or Alive 3 - 910,000
14. Need for Speed: Underground - 805,000
15. Madden NFL 2004 - 805,000
16. Spider-Man: The Movie - 800,000
17. Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six 3 - 770,000
18. Max Payne - 755,000
19. Medal of Honor: Frontline - 745,000
20. MechAssault - 720,000
21. True Crime: Streets of LA - 710,000

Granted Wikipedia is NOT the best source it does give you a pretty good idea of the numbers i was talking about

I played Star Wars: the old republic on the xbox, but never bought it... I played my roommates copy. When it comes to console games a lot of people might just rent a game and beat it rather than buying them. Where mmos need to be purchased really to play. I would also say that there are a lot more PCs out in the world than there are Xboxs, so that would give them a larger player pool to work with. Also the xbox game released early in the Xboxs life span, so that could acount for smaller numbers to an extent.

Originally posted by greed0104

I really don't give a damn which is better. Aslong as ToR provides me a polished fun experience then i'm more then happy.

greed i totally agree with ya.  As long as a game SWTOR, EQ2 or wow provides fun for me, i will play it, i do what i want with my money and no one will tell me other wise.  I go by me, myself, and I when it comes to picking a game and playing it.

Saying Warcraft is more popular then starwars is rediculous; Yes, warcraft is a bestselling game, however the starwars IP overall is much more powerful then Warcraft (just look at the numbers). While warcraft has made a name for it's self as a pc game IP lets not forget that the Star Wars IP has crossed every bridge at this point; Comics, Movies, Series, Toys, Video Games,  MMO, Cartoon, Novels, Pez dispensers; and the list goes on.

     In the long run I think that it won't matter what SW:TOR does because blizzard's monolith is starting to show it's age; that  combined with the fact that every serious mmo that has been released in the past few years have taken huge numbers of WoW''s players looking for something new (even though in the long run they return because all newer mmo's have been crap: See Age of conan).    

 Just wanted to state something to those saying that WoW "raised the bar" for game releases these days.  I'm sorry but WoW was terribly buggy when it first came out just like any MMO.  WoW prevailed because of what it presented, a new format of MMO a more simplistic interface, a new way to play in general with flowing movements.  Sure they have polished up a lot but they still have a lot of flaws.  Blizzards biggest flaw is that they are just straight up money hungry pricks now, there customer service is god awful.  Go ahead and try to contact someone about a problem good luck.  Enjoy chatting with a GM that could give two shits about your concerns.  Blizzard fails in my eyes and i still play the damn game because it is the best of the genre right now with an active community although 80% of that community has been carried through everything and has no clue how to play there class or at all in general.  I'd continue but i'm tired.  End rant.

Originally posted by Noforatu

 Just wanted to state something to those saying that WoW "raised the bar" for game releases these days.  I'm sorry but WoW was terribly buggy when it first came out just like any MMO.  WoW prevailed because of what it presented, a new format of MMO a more simplistic interface, a new way to play in general with flowing movements.  Sure they have polished up a lot but they still have a lot of flaws.  Blizzards biggest flaw is that they are just straight up money hungry pricks now, there customer service is god awful.  Go ahead and try to contact someone about a problem good luck.  Enjoy chatting with a GM that could give two shits about your concerns.  Blizzard fails in my eyes and i still play the damn game because it is the best of the genre right now with an active community although 80% of that community has been carried through everything and has no clue how to play there class or at all in general.  I'd continue but i'm tired.  End rant.

Actually WoW did raise the bar MMO's launches.  I don't know what you mean by buggy.  Because it's widely known it wasn't.  Yes there were a few quest that were bugged.  Other then that though the only problem World of Warcraft had at launch.  Was that it was too popular and the servers were hit with more then they could handle.

I could pick the rest of your post as well, but there really is no point in doing so.

OP, as someone else said before.  StarWars is a more well known IP then Warcraft.  So the possibility of it becoming bigger is possible.  Any MMO game has the potential to be bigger then WoW.

Originally posted by Noforatu

 Just wanted to state something to those saying that WoW "raised the bar" for game releases these days.  I'm sorry but WoW was terribly buggy when it first came out just like any MMO.  WoW prevailed because of what it presented, a new format of MMO a more simplistic interface, a new way to play in general with flowing movements.  Sure they have polished up a lot but they still have a lot of flaws.  Blizzards biggest flaw is that they are just straight up money hungry pricks now, there customer service is god awful.  Go ahead and try to contact someone about a problem good luck.  Enjoy chatting with a GM that could give two shits about your concerns.  Blizzard fails in my eyes and i still play the damn game because it is the best of the genre right now with an active community although 80% of that community has been carried through everything and has no clue how to play there class or at all in general.  I'd continue but i'm tired.  End rant.

i find WoW customer support pretty good actually, at least they have GM's that listen to whats going on, and when i had a problem with WoW on my PC i called blizzard, and they explained everything step by step and made it work. it is indeed commercializing which made the game WORSE in my opinion, attracting too much (awfull) crowd...

The concept of a WOW KILLER is pure fantasy in of itself.  Blizzard my be like Smaug sitting atop his huge mass of treasure but there isnt a single black arrow out there able to shoot it from the sky.  In fact Blizzard Is more akin to Elrond with his reluctance to reforge Narsill then the beast Smaug. Hell at this point I dont even think WOW 2 will cause the downfall of WOW ( Everquest - Everquest 2 )

You are forgetting a few key points.

Sure, there are a lot of star wars games, but how many MMOs? .. One? and that sucks, right ?

So lets just say this is the only MMO star wars game viable on the market. What makes this game so different to others, is that you can interact, live, and be a part of the star wars universe like no other game, you can feel insignificant, you can just be a tiny spek on the universe, and you can roleplay.

Roleplaying, any idea how many roleplayers there are? not many, in truth. Infact, most roleplaying servers are in the minority, but look on the other side, how many hardcore starwars fans are there that roleplays, how many of them simply adore the universe, how many MMO roleplayers will leave their other games and come here.

There was a poll on the swtor forums, and around 50% said they will be roleplaying, which to me suggests a #1 roleplaying MMO, similar to how WoW is the #1 theme park MMO, and EvE is the #1 sandbox (yes i know UO is more prestigious but this is modern day we're talking about)

Originally posted by zipit

 

 

      Be mindful of your premature conclusions. Bear in mind that Star Wars encompas an fanbase that spans 3 generations. That's ....3 generations. In terms of the game itself, TOR, also remember that Bioware has the considerable if not entirely unified backing of the Exiles who formed following the NGE Order 66. Us Exiles alone can pump + 75-100.000 subscribers into the game at any given moment if we so choose. If Bioware is able to appease the Exile community while at the same time appeal to new players which will be their primary target audience then I'd say they're off to a flying start. I have slight misgivings about their lack of focus on crafting, but they have this Exile's full support......for now.

 

 

     Dritzz Darkwood

     55th Mechanized Rifle Division

     Tatooine

 

 

I don't think the Exiles have quite the influence you think we do. Many have just us have moved on or quit entirely.

I do agree with you that SW has three decades of back story, but the I.P.'s reputation has taken a huge beating over the last ten years, three stale movies (only one slightly well received, and that because the other two were so painful), that cartoon movie (also not well received). Also the SWG debacle, which is the worst thing that can happen when you think of reputation among MMO gamers.

I agree in principle with the OP that World's initial popularity was due to the reputation of Warcraft. When they logged in they found a solid game, and it snowballed from there. Their claimed numbers didn't happen overnight though.

I think swtor will do just fine, but don't expect it to overtake wow at launch, expect large launch numbers, say along the lines of 1.5 to 2 times that of AOC (they sold a chunk of boxes in the first month). This is just my prediction, we'll see. If it does overtake wow, to me that would just be 1. a miracle, or 2. the wave of the market. If swtor, say 5 years down the road has warcraft's numbers, then I will say, damn, they were right about Bioware.

I think WoW is a phenomenon. We are not likely to ever see an MMORPG become as popular in our lifetime. I do, however, see a multiplayer FPS becoming as popular if not more popular relatively soon.

I find it funny that people really compare games to WoW...seriously.  I would almost guarantee if you pitted original WoW against what players play today people would say the original sucks.  It's an unfair advantage to compare a brand new game fresh on the market or getting ready to come on the market with a game that's been out for 5 years and has been polished and fixed repeatedly.  On a personal level I think ToR will be better than WoW (heck I prefer lotro over WoW). 

Now you got a dangerous combination ahead for Blizz.  You have Bioware which is an international superstar when it comes to developing engrossing and fun games, I dare you to name one that hasn't gotten good reviews (and I'm talking big name reviewer not some dinky web blog created by a self-absorbed 50-yr old living in his mom's basement).  And then with Bioware you have Star Wars IP with anything that has Old Republic in the title and you have a game that is guaranteed to sell.

WoW is big an all but lets face it...I'm betting a good percentage of those accounts over in asia are gold farming accounts whose sole purpose is to farm gold, disrupt the economy on said servers, and just ruins the game for some people.  Numbers aren't always the end-all be-all for a game, WoW fanbois.  Try to look at what's under the numbers.  WoW has a huge gold farmer base, and many players who play multiple accounts (I'm on my third).  And then there's this gem http://www.geekologie.com/2008/10/guy_plays_36_world_of_warcraft.php.  We also have to take into consideration that the politics with advertising come into effect.  It may have said 11 million accounts but which ones are paid and which ones are trial?  Yes, Blizz is sneaky enough to include the free-trial accounts as well as the GM accounts.  Blizz are the masters of marketing, otherwise WoW would never have been this big.

I'm not bashing WoW, I just hate how whenever a new game is coming out; what's the first thing I see on this board...X Game will topple WoW, or WoW is OMGTEHPWNERZ on X Game.  No that wasn't aimed at the OP, he's siding with Star Wars :).  Like I said before, I'm pretty sure ToR will suck me away from WoW, lotro, and Aion (Yes I play 3) but I agree with a previous poster that I hope it never reaches that level of popularity.  Because there's a lot fo people who play WoW who honestly need to re-evaluate their online etiquette (seriously first Barrens chat now Trade chat).  Think of it in a druggy sort of way.  WoW is Crack, and ToR is marijuana...each will have it's addicts and paying customers and there will always be a discussion of which one gives you the best feelings when you use it.

Originally posted by greed0104

I really don't give a damn which is better. Aslong as ToR provides me a polished fun experience then i'm more then happy.

 Cant have said this any better. Who cares if it does or doesnt kill WOW.

Pretty soon your going to have a bunch of active, diverse, MMO's out. I mean Warcraft, Star Trek, a new star wars mmo, super heroes, etc.

What this means is that pretty soon everyone can just stick to there own respective sub-categories. We know you hate WoW because it's the most successfull MMO and your a star trek fan and are playing WoW out of restriction.

And since WoW has been out for 5 years now it's days are numbered irregardless. It'll just probably remain consistent with sales and fanbase, but never what it used to be.