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Aion

Aion 

General Discussion  » I have a bad feeling about this

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49 posts found
drbaltazar

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/28/07
Posts: 2144

9/19/09 12:02:52 AM#26

 and pray .because if other server stays like this the closed one wont open up till the 22 

wardog250

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/06/06
Posts: 162

Destroying worlds since 323BCE

9/19/09 12:03:15 AM#27


Originally posted by Swanea

Originally posted by andorov

First of all, you have a typo. You  meant 400,000 not 4,000,000.
Secondly, while it may even be correct that 400,000 people will play, all of them will not play at the same time.
No company is stupid enough to set up an extra 20 servers just to accomodate the surge they get on week 1 (when everyone wants to play 24/7). After week 1, 16000 subs per server translates to about 5-10k concurrent users. 
So I think they've done their math right.



 
Uh, Mythic was....

lol ya, they got arrogant. They were sure that WAR was going to plunder WoW's population. They couldn't have been more wrong. NCsoft is doing the right thing by starting off with a few servers and let the game grow from that.

I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use. - Galileo Galilei

VoIgore

Hard Core Member

Joined: 6/15/08
Posts: 265

9/19/09 12:04:09 AM#28
Originally posted by Albos

 My legion members are disappointed cause only half of us got characters ready the rest can't server is locked. I know you say jump on next server but we are a legion we need everyone on same server.

 

And that is exactly the reason why there is faction balance hardcoded.

Imagine 3 guilds all 100+ players strong agree to join the same server, same faction. Wanna wait for balance until 300 Joe Schmoe's join the other side? Or cry about broken PvP in the endgame? Me not!

NCSoft does this JUST RIGHT THIS WAY and if they wouldn't, people would cuss all over the forums: "OMG haven't they learned from WAR??" -and rightly so!

Thanks for at least ONE company that is making some thoughts about PvP when releasing a PvP-game.

"Women should not be enlightened or educated in any way. They should, in fact, be segregated as they are the cause of hideous and involuntary erections in holy men." — St. Augustine.

bazak

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/05/07
Posts: 51

9/19/09 12:15:39 AM#29

i have to agree locking the servers  and locking factions when apropriate is a very good move nc soft has a very good track record and even though that doesnt mean much in reality from game to game they continue to prove themselves with stuff like this

Time is an Illusion, Perception is reality

Wolfenpride

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/28/06
Posts: 2549

9/19/09 1:34:07 AM#30

Honestly the servers are gonna probably crash a few times with everyone trying to log in at the same time. It happens to every mmo the first few days, their is literally no exception.

NC's proven during the stress test/open beta that they will work hard to get it all sorted out as soon as possible, so I don't really mind.

Ephimero

Hard Core Member

Joined: 10/18/06
Posts: 1839

9/19/09 1:57:08 AM#31

I got all my legion members inside the server we wanted to be at, Spatalos, which was the first locking out of the 24 servers.

Meeting 1 hour before release, making sure people who couldnt attend had someone to create their chars, and doing things fastly is key in these cases.

Dameonk

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/30/04
Posts: 1268

9/19/09 2:07:03 AM#32

Just so everyone knows....

Liv said earlier on her Twitter feed that any locked servers will be opened for the headstart.

twitter.com/aion_liv/status/4093193326

Bioware did not make Knights of the old Republic 2.

stayontarget

Novice Member

Joined: 10/04/08
Posts: 2801

Girlfriends come and go but Epic battles are Soulbound

9/19/09 2:47:46 AM#33

So what makes the NA/EU so special that they will underestimate the pop ?   I mean they have done it already in three countries.

New servers will be added just as soon as the servers full up to cap.  Some queing lines for about the first week until people start to do less 24/7 hardcore grinding and get into a normal routine playing hours.

Leucrotta

Advanced Member

Joined: 2/29/08
Posts: 369

9/19/09 2:50:16 AM#34
Originally posted by stayontarget

So what makes the NA/EU so special that they will underestimate the pop ?   I mean they have done it already in three countries.

New servers will be added just as soon as the servers full up to cap.  Some queing lines for about the first week until people start to do less 24/7 hardcore grinding and get into a normal routine playing hours.

 

16 servers are still open for character creation so im not sure what they underestimated

vesavius

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/08/04
Posts: 1645

''Get me a beer and money sandwhich. Hold the bread.'' - DR & Quinch

9/19/09 7:15:00 AM#35
Originally posted by Swanea
Originally posted by andorov

First of all, you have a typo. You  meant 400,000 not 4,000,000.

Secondly, while it may even be correct that 400,000 people will play, all of them will not play at the same time.

No company is stupid enough to set up an extra 20 servers just to accomodate the surge they get on week 1 (when everyone wants to play 24/7). After week 1, 16000 subs per server translates to about 5-10k concurrent users. 

So I think they've done their math right.

 

Uh, Mythic was....


 

lol so true

vesavius

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/08/04
Posts: 1645

''Get me a beer and money sandwhich. Hold the bread.'' - DR & Quinch

9/19/09 7:52:12 AM#36
Originally posted by Ephimero

I got all my legion members inside the server we wanted to be at, Spatalos, which was the first locking out of the 24 servers.

Meeting 1 hour before release, making sure people who couldnt attend had someone to create their chars, and doing things fastly is key in these cases.


 

Which faction Eph?

Schaapje

Novice Member

Joined: 6/09/06
Posts: 7

Shoga-fucking-nai

9/19/09 8:05:23 AM#37

I couldn't get in for atleast 45 minutes. But it's okay. I got my characters.

But the one thing that really bugs me, and I haven't seen any topic about it is why in Godsname do they launch the headstart on Sunday 9pm (21:00)?????

I know for a fact I won't be able to play. The first hours will be BOEM! BAM!! server crash.

For alot of people we do have jobs/school the next day. So why the HELL 9pm... I just... fail to see the point in doing that?

6pm? (18:00).... sure I think you can get maybe 2-3 hours of gaming out of it. But honestly why?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Why so damn late??

"Because it will balance out in time-zones", please don't give me that bullshit.

SlickShoes

Novice Member

Joined: 3/01/06
Posts: 202

9/19/09 8:33:12 AM#38
Originally posted by Schaapje

I couldn't get in for atleast 45 minutes. But it's okay. I got my characters.

But the one thing that really bugs me, and I haven't seen any topic about it is why in Godsname do they launch the headstart on Sunday 9pm (21:00)?????

I know for a fact I won't be able to play. The first hours will be BOEM! BAM!! server crash.

For alot of people we do have jobs/school the next day. So why the HELL 9pm... I just... fail to see the point in doing that?

6pm? (18:00).... sure I think you can get maybe 2-3 hours of gaming out of it. But honestly why?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Why so damn late??

"Because it will balance out in time-zones", please don't give me that bullshit.


 

Because thats 12pm in pacific time, its all going live at once. Also the game doesnt go live in EU techincally until next friday so you get an extra 2 days fo free gameplay to make up for it opening up at 9pm EU time on sunday!

Currently playing GTAIV

Qazz

Novice Member

Joined: 9/19/09
Posts: 12

9/19/09 9:22:12 AM#39
Originally posted by glofish

I think NCSoft does not fully understand just how many people are ready to jump ship to Aion. For god's sake they have 400,000 preorders and only 24 servers (US and Euro total)!!!

 

That makes for 16K guaranteed people per server. I think the capacity of a server is at most 10K people. And I am being generous here after all WOW servers take no more than 5K simultaneous users before queues kick in. Note that we're not even taking into account regular retail sales.

 

I think the servers will be night unplayable until they open up at least 20 more servers.

 


 

Hopefully they DON'T do what Warhammer did.   WAR was slammed at first, with wait times pushing 1 hour.  They quickly launched enough servers to allow people to play within a reasonable wait time....then the initial buzz wore off.  Some stayed, some left.

Dozens of servers became wastelands of inactivity and they had to do several server merges.

Launching an MMO is a tough balancing act...let's hope Aion doesn't repeat past mistakes.

Model192

Novice Member

Joined: 10/28/04
Posts: 40

Woo woo.

9/19/09 9:30:43 AM#40

400,000 people for preorder just means that 400k people wanted to try the beta for near free to see if they would actually play. There will be a percentage of people like me who decide against paying the 50$ and sub fee because it just doesn't have "it".

Frostbite05

Elite Member

Joined: 9/15/08
Posts: 967

9/19/09 9:34:08 AM#41
Originally posted by Albos

 My legion members are disappointed cause only half of us got characters ready the rest can't server is locked. I know you say jump on next server but we are a legion we need everyone on same server.

 

Don't pick asmodian than or just wait till launch when they all open up for everyone

Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 1127

9/19/09 9:50:03 AM#42


Originally posted by glofish
I think NCSoft does not fully understand just how many people are ready to jump ship to Aion. For god's sake they have 400,000 preorders and only 24 servers (US and Euro total)!!!
 
That makes for 16K guaranteed people per server. I think the capacity of a server is at most 10K people. And I am being generous here after all WOW servers take no more than 5K simultaneous users before queues kick in. Note that we're not even taking into account regular retail sales.
 
I think the servers will be night unplayable until they open up at least 20 more servers.
 

Let's use EVE to get an idea how subscriber base is related to concurrent online users.

EVE got about 300.000 subs, at peak hours, there are around 40k-45k users online, make it 45k.
With those numbers, we can see that only 15% of whole subscriber base makes the daily peak. Because of EVE skill system, there might be some people that are not very active so just to make sure, let's raise the number to 20%.

Now take Aion.
400.000 pre orders is a server capacity of 80.000 people online, distrubuted across 24 servers(for rough numbers ignoring EU/US timezones) we get 3.333 estimated users per server from pre-orders.

Seems fine, doesn't it? ;-)

thamighty213

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/17/06
Posts: 790

9/19/09 11:15:38 AM#43

After that initial couple of weeks rule of thumb is you never have more than 15% of your playerbase on at any given time so thats around 2k users based on current amount of servers and current sales.


Slineer

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/16/04
Posts: 75

9/19/09 11:41:14 AM#44
Originally posted by Gdemami

 


Originally posted by glofish
I think NCSoft does not fully understand just how many people are ready to jump ship to Aion. For god's sake they have 400,000 preorders and only 24 servers (US and Euro total)!!!
 
That makes for 16K guaranteed people per server. I think the capacity of a server is at most 10K people. And I am being generous here after all WOW servers take no more than 5K simultaneous users before queues kick in. Note that we're not even taking into account regular retail sales.
 
I think the servers will be night unplayable until they open up at least 20 more servers.
 

 

Let's use EVE to get an idea how subscriber base is related to concurrent online users.

EVE got about 300.000 subs, at peak hours, there are around 40k-45k users online, make it 45k.
With those numbers, we can see that only 15% of whole subscriber base makes the daily peak. Because of EVE skill system, there might be some people that are not very active so just to make sure, let's raise the number to 20%.

Now take Aion.
400.000 pre orders is a server capacity of 80.000 people online, distrubuted across 24 servers(for rough numbers ignoring EU/US timezones) we get 3.333 estimated users per server from pre-orders.

Seems fine, doesn't it? ;-)

Your logic is flawed, EVE's 300k subscribers are worldwide, all share the same server and all have different peek times. This causes people to be on 24/7 and balances out the server population over the entire day. Aion servers are localized time zones, meaning all or the majority of the players on those servers will be on during that peak time. 

As far as WAR goes, they needed to add all those servers to accomidate the 850,000 (?) copies they sold during the first month. The failure was not in adding the servers, as I believe they did a really good job cloning the servers and letting people choose to continue on either server instead of reroll or wait in line.  The failure was in the flawed over hyped game and poor network code that lagged even with low population servers. 

Aion has instances for the first 20 lvl's and can add or remove the # of these instances to support current online players. I'm sure they are expecting some people to not pick up their game box, and more people to not level past 20. Once people pass the lvl 20 mark, then they can decide on adding more servers or not. If a server is already over populated and has queue times I hope they copy WAR and clone the server, this will negate any confusion of guilds trying to organize as they can simply log in the other server and it will be identical to the one they just left. 

There is no point in adding more servers until people pass the starter zones which are instanced. As we see individual names for each server, in reality they are clusters of multiple servers which can be scaled to support more or less people. Especially during the first 20 lvl's when everything is instanced. However if they see a trend that leaves them to believe they will need to open additional servers, I'm sure they will. In addition its common to open a couple fresh servers on the official launch day so people who wish, can have a fair start and not be competing with headstart players.

Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 1127

9/19/09 11:52:29 AM#45


Originally posted by Slineer
Your logic is flawed.

It is not.

That's why I fancy EVE and you play Aion...

Draccan

Novice Member

Joined: 8/12/07
Posts: 1007

sandbox is king

9/19/09 12:11:12 PM#46

NC Soft are not exactly mmo rookies... I am sure they are ready to crack out new servers when needed, but no reason to overextend by day one...

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Slineer

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/16/04
Posts: 75

9/19/09 12:35:55 PM#47
Originally posted by Gdemami

 


Originally posted by Slineer
Your logic is flawed.

 

It is not.

That's why I fancy EVE and you play Aion...

 

 

Again your logic is flawed twice. I will be trying Aion, I would not classify myself as playing it yet. I've also tried EVE, that doesn't make me an EVE player. You used EVE as a reference for calculating peak users in an MMO per server. You calculated players on a world wide server compared to localized servers with set time zones.  You couldn't be more wrong in your technique/logic.  At launch or fresh content expansions games tend to have 50% active server pop online during peak hours. After things quiet down they settle at around 25%. That varies greatly from MMO to MMO, especially if servers are localized with set time zones.

Also you say it like being an Aion player is a bad thing, which leads me to believe you think spreadsheets in empty space makes you hardcore or something?  Eh, anyways, to each his own. I will play whatever game I find fun.

 

glofish

Hard Core Member

Joined: 9/06/09
Posts: 202

 
9/19/09 1:17:41 PM#48

 

Comparing concurrent users to EVE is a flawed comparison due to the game's radically different desing. The chat may look like all players are on the same server but that is not more than a simple illusion (an excellently delivered on as well).

 

Travelingin EVE means jumping from system to system and when you do so you are jumping from instance to instance. There are hundreds of star systems thus the load get distributed over many instances.

 

At the same time in EVE  the environment is a lot more sparse, less character  customization and far less information needs to be sent around on each player. 

 

 

 

Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 1127

9/19/09 2:49:13 PM#49


Originally posted by Slineer
Again your logic is flawed twice. I will be trying Aion, I would not classify myself as playing it yet. I've also tried EVE, that doesn't make me an EVE player. You used EVE as a reference for calculating peak users in an MMO per server. You calculated players on a world wide server compared to localized servers with set time zones.  You couldn't be more wrong in your technique/logic. 

So you are concerned about timezones, right?

Let's do the calcs again then.

We have 300.000 world wide EVE subs. Let's say, 2/3 of this comes from US players and 1/3 is EU.
We end up with:
200k subs for US
and
100k for EU
OK?

The worldwide peak is 45k, let's assume it must be the US hours because US have the most subs, right?

Out of 200k US subs, 45k online users is 22% online, so far OK?
The peak for US is 45k at 200k subs.

Now we get the rest of subs, the EU players - 100k. We make a peak of 22% because the players are the ame nuts as those in US, right?
The peak for EU is 22k at 100k subs.

OK?

Now we do the same with Aion subs.
We devide 400.00 subs for US and EU the same way - divide the subs in ratio 1/2 and 22% peak, ok?

The peak for US is 61k online with 265k subs.
The peak for EU is 29k 132k subs.

OK?

Now the servers. We devide them equaly because we are not stupid, right?
16 servers for US.
8 servers for EU.

Now we divide subs between them:
3.8k online users per server for US
3.6k online users per server for EU.

There is a slight difference but that is because we split the subs for 2 timezones only and didn't go through reductions of cross overs and other zones.

Still, we get about the same results, huh?


Originally posted by Slineer

Also you say it like being an Aion player is a bad thing, which leads me to believe you think spreadsheets in empty space makes you hardcore or something? 
 


Spreadsheets ftw!

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