Originally posted by mmoguy43 

 

Tabula Rasa didn't close down because it couldn't directly compete with WoW(its not much like WoW anyway) but because of internal problems and it was inevitable after launch.

 

I honestly am pisssed off with bs threads like this and how WoW players expect to be blown away with a NEW MMO release when they are used to gobs of content with a seemingly endless number of things to do due to SEVERAL YEARS of development and THREE EXPANSIONS. Don't you see how retarded that sounds? How do you ever expect a new game to not "fail" by your standards?

I agree with what you said about Tabula Rasa.  Spot on correct and I don't think a comparison of Tabula Rasa to Aion if a fair comparison at all.  

However, wow did just fine on release without years of content.  It did not need 5 years worth of content to compete with Everquest and obviously if did exceptionally well at release and beyond.   All a new mmo needs is enough content to occupy players until new content can be added. 

That is what it it going to take to be a big success right now.  I don't mean compete with wow, but obviously do better than anything we have seen in the past few years.  The market looks ripe for a very successful game to scoop up people looking for an alternative to wow [and other games]. 

I don't think NCSoft would be sad to have a game with a million subscribers in the west and however many they have in the east. 

Originally posted by mmaize
 

Yet for all these reasons, and this is by no means a flame, the fact is that WoW's players are bored.  It's the same old same old for an old and over used model.  Aion doesn't stand to gain so much because it's revolutionizing the MMO world with some sort of new model for combat, pvp, pve, etc., but instead stands to gain because WoW for a very large crowd which is getting larger by the month is too much of the same to continue to throw money at any longer.  At least Aion is a new and interactive story line in a new world with some unique aspects to it.  I don't care how polished WoW is (which took time btw),  the fact is that Aion is really polished as well because of the time taken in the asian market which means you're pitting one well polished game based in a setting that's become played out vs. another polished game which offers a new setting, story line, etc....the chance to explore something new will win every time.

I agree with you that WoW players are getting bored. I'm sure that Aion will pull many of them away for a while. But the OP's question was: will it compete in the long-term? I think the answer to this question is no.

Because Aion is so similar to WoW, it will not hold players once they have experienced the story. Once they reach end game and realize how much less content there is than WoW, they will go back. This is especially true considering the fact that WoW's upcoming expansion will completely change the game from level 1 on. There will be plenty of reason to leave Aion and go back to WoW once it comes out.

I will be playing Aion because I like the game but it will never compete with wow as far as numbers go.

Aion's core is mostly set up for pvp, and most people like a more controlled environment to play in.

Originally posted by Anubisan

Originally posted by mmaize
 

Yet for all these reasons, and this is by no means a flame, the fact is that WoW's players are bored.  It's the same old same old for an old and over used model.  Aion doesn't stand to gain so much because it's revolutionizing the MMO world with some sort of new model for combat, pvp, pve, etc., but instead stands to gain because WoW for a very large crowd which is getting larger by the month is too much of the same to continue to throw money at any longer.  At least Aion is a new and interactive story line in a new world with some unique aspects to it.  I don't care how polished WoW is (which took time btw),  the fact is that Aion is really polished as well because of the time taken in the asian market which means you're pitting one well polished game based in a setting that's become played out vs. another polished game which offers a new setting, story line, etc....the chance to explore something new will win every time.

 

I agree with you that WoW players are getting bored. I'm sure that Aion will pull many of them away for a while. But the OP's question was: will it compete in the long-term? I think the answer to this question is no.

Because Aion is so similar to WoW, it will not hold players once they have experienced the story. Once they reach end game and realize how much less content there is than WoW, they will go back. This is especially true considering the fact that WoW's upcoming expansion will completely change the game from level 1 on. There will be plenty of reason to leave Aion and go back to WoW once it comes out.

I disagree.  It doesn't really change anything from level 1 on other than miniscule content changes.  There are a few new playable races (They've done that before), there will be some decent class changes as a result but nothing that changes the combat model and more importantly the changes to the class system are going to do exactly what raising the level cap is going to do, and that is break the PvP system which in turn will mean nerfs for all those players who spent the time choosing the character class(es) they enjoyed to now having to rethink that and now on top of that deal with the flavor of the month players who killed WoW in the first place.  Raiding?  More of the same...

I think Aion has plenty of room for expansions and improvements as well so it's not as if Aion is going to sit around and dwell on status quo by the time a good portion of players reach end game.

Originally posted by Daffid011

I agree with what you said about Tabula Rasa.  Spot on correct and I don't think a comparison of Tabula Rasa to Aion if a fair comparison at all.  

However, wow did just fine on release without years of content.  It did not need 5 years worth of content to compete with Everquest and obviously if did exceptionally well at release and beyond.   All a new mmo needs is enough content to occupy players until new content can be added. 

Well its fair to compare games but you have to compare them on some kind of relative value.

Tabula Rasa had one of the best foundations of any MMO I've ever seen.  That means the core systems were solid..

The issue was there was not much game built on top of that foundation.  I think TR if it was fully developed would have done extremely well.

The issue isn't having a "lack of content" it was having "almost no content".

Beyond that what I think a game really needs is to be different in some way.  Its not about calling any MMO a "clone" of another.  If I walk into a place and its like I've been there before and I know where everything is.. there really isn't much inspiration to explore.

Personally I like games and I'll play them while I find them fun.  So I will play Aion for at least a month .. not sure beyond that.  I have friends going into Aion with me so that can alter things.

The "objective" statement I can make is... The subscription level needed to be number 2 or 3 in North America isn't that high.  So I would not be suprised to see Aion up there.

Aion does have one thing most western MMO's don't have... a very large installed "east" player base.

The main two western MMO's that I can think of off hand that have done well in "the east" are Ultima Online and WoW.  Which means Aion will have built in "income" that most western MMO's don't have.  This allows them to have development resources most western mmo's don't have.

Then again what do you mean by "long term" ?

WoW came out in 2004.. so November of this year its basicly 5 years old?

In September UO will have been "live" 12 years... EA has signed Net Dragon to launch that game into new markets... a 12 year old game.. in new markets.

So the term "long term" might be a bit different based on point of view.  I wonder 7 years from now what the installed player base of WoW will be... etc

Success happens on many levels.. from a company point of view .. profit = success.

Originally posted by Anubisan

 I agree with you that WoW players are getting bored. I'm sure that Aion will pull many of them away for a while. But the OP's question was: will it compete in the long-term? I think the answer to this question is no.

Because Aion is so similar to WoW, it will not hold players once they have experienced the story. Once they reach end game and realize how much less content there is than WoW, they will go back. This is especially true considering the fact that WoW's upcoming expansion will completely change the game from level 1 on. There will be plenty of reason to leave Aion and go back to WoW once it comes out.

Aion is not similar to wow game play wise (UI yes I can agree on that).

Aion has a lot of end game content for a game that is only one year old (how much content did wow have in one year)?

Most of what you say is your opinion, which is fine, but it's not a true indication of what is in store for this game.  No one really knows that.

What a thread.

If Aion doesn´t fix the rift-system or offer servers with controlled pvp, it will compete with other gankgames. Longterm.

Originally posted by stayontarget

Originally posted by Anubisan

 I agree with you that WoW players are getting bored. I'm sure that Aion will pull many of them away for a while. But the OP's question was: will it compete in the long-term? I think the answer to this question is no.

Because Aion is so similar to WoW, it will not hold players once they have experienced the story. Once they reach end game and realize how much less content there is than WoW, they will go back. This is especially true considering the fact that WoW's upcoming expansion will completely change the game from level 1 on. There will be plenty of reason to leave Aion and go back to WoW once it comes out.

1) Aion is not similar to wow game play wise (UI yes I can agree on that).

2) Aion has a lot of end game content for a game that is only one year old (how much content did wow have in one year)?

Most of what you say is your opinion, which is fine, but it's not a true indication of what is in store for this game.  No one really knows that.

Obviously what I say is my opinion. This thread was a discussion of our collective opinions regarding Aion's chances for overtaking WoW. I still don't think that anyone has presented any solid arguments to refute my assertion that WoW will prevail.

1) In terms of gameplay, I found Aion to be extremely similar to WoW. The combat system is almost identical (other than the addition of combos) and the interface is practically identical as well. The quest logging and other UI elements are straight copies from WoW. In fact, other than the PvP focus, I don't see how anyone could really argue that the gameplay in Aion is NOT like WoW. It is obvious there is one game NCSoft was attempting to emulate more than any other...

2) Aion may have plenty of end game content for a new release, but it has nowhere near the amount that WoW does. The question posed by the OP was whether or not we believed Aion could contend with WoW. I don't believe that Aion will ever have as much content as WoW does because of the 5 year head start and the MASSIVE resources Blizzard has at their disposal. They are in the lead now and I believe they probably will always be.

I may be wrong, but this is how I see it. Believe me, I WANT someone to overtake WoW as the king of MMORPGs. Unfortunately I just don't see enough new ideas in Aion to really make a dent. It has been said many times before: you can't out-WoW WoW. Without completely breaking the mold, Aion and other games that try to copy WoW too closely will only condemn themselves to being inferior knock-offs.

Just as no one was able to predict WoW would be as successful as it is no one will be able to predict what game will eventually surpass it. I think AION has the potential to be successful for years to come. Then again NCSoft could do something amazingly boneheaded to screw that up.

Que Sera Sera

Originally posted by zymurgeist

Just as no one was able to predict WoW would be as successful as it is no one will be able to predict what game will eventually surpass it. I think AION has the potential to be successful for years to come. Then again NCSoft could do something amazingly boneheaded to screw that up.

Que Sera Sera

Exactly, I was thinking that Aion has potential, but why would NCSoft screw Aion up like say, Star Wars Galaxies. That game was moderately successful until SOE started messing with it. Pre-CU was the best, good lord why!!! WHY!!! SWG OWNED!

So, Aion perhaps may be different, they might start improving and improving, but who knows, from what we've heard in Asia, Aion is on its way to becoming the best!

Originally posted by Anubisan

I don't think this game really has any hope of truly competing with WOW long-term. Aion basically took WoW's combat style and many other game mechanics, but forgot some of the most important elements.

1. Aion has a noticeably rougher level grind than WoW. Not surprising for an Asian MMORPG, but this will alienate the casual crowd who currently play WoW.
2. Aion has an Asian anime look and feel to the game. This is a good thing in my opinion, but many western gamers will be put off by it and will not invest in the game long-term as a result. The characters all have a bit of a feminine look to them which is a big negative to some gamers.
3. Aion has far fewer class/spec customization options. In WoW, you have your talent spec, enchantments, gems, and glyphs. All of these things can help you differentiate your character and allow you to play according to a preferred style. Aion's characters are all much more cookie-cutter in comparison.
4. Aion has only 2 starting areas. This will make people bored very quickly when rolling new characters and will prevent many from doing so long term. In comparison, WoW has different starting zones for every race and multiple zones to level in at every range.
5. WOW has massively more PvE content and all of it is more polished than Aion's.

For all of these reasons, I don't think Aion will contend with WoW in the long run. This is not to say that Aion will not be successful. I predict that it will see great success like Lineage 2 did. But I seriously doubt that it will be a true contender for the top spot.

I'm going to have to disagree with your here.

1. The level grind isn't much rougher. It only seems like that to some because the level cap is lower than in WoW so you spend more time in any given level.

2. I really don't understand why it is branded as "anime". Games like Ragnarok Online and Trickster are clearly anime influenced. The character creation system is definitly robust enough to get rid of any feminte aspect if you want to.

3. While World of Warcraft does offer more customization, you're still playing the cookie cutter type. No matter how you differ your character, you're still going to use stealth and melee dps as a rogue, you'll still do damage from a distance as a mage and while you might increase your dps a bit as a priest, at the end of the day you're expected to heal. It doesn't necessarily change the way you play.

4. I don't think that a big majority of the population will really care about that.  Even in WoW you will only spend a couple of hours in your newbie area, especially when you have already played through it and after that you will head over to the universal level areas. Having good set of classes that all play different from each other is much more important than what the area you play in look like

5: While this is true, I don't think Aion appeals to the newbie gamer. Nearly every mmorpg gamer has played WoW at some point so they are already familar with most of the content in WoW. Aion is a completely new game. Besides WoW was in Aion's shoes at one point. Keep in mind that back in the old days there were no Battlegrounds or territories that could be capture. There were only a few raid instances which required 40 people. WoW didn't have as much content as the already widely popular Everquest, Dark age of Camelot and Final Fantasy XI, but it still stuck through. You seem to think that you need revolutionary features to be the next big game. I disagree with that, WoW didn't have any huge features that were not present in other games nor did it have as much content.

I'll be the first to admit that Aion plays a lot like WoW and in some cases just downright rips it off, but there are cases where they streamlined the game. For example, every important area, person (think quest giver) and mob that comes up in dialogue or your quest journal is branded in Blue. You can click on it which gives more information about that person, location or mob and you can check its location, which is then marked on both your minimap and map. The combat is also more expansive. At level 10 I was already using 8 keys or so on regular mobs. in WoW, you only use 3 or 4 on regular enemies. There is also the combo system and aerial combat which I think will add a big layer of depth in pvp.

Originally posted by nickelpat

Lynx, every MMORPG competes with WoW, and WAR, and AoC. It's all the same market, and if a product comes out and can't compete, it fails. Take for example Tabula Rasa (as awesome as it was), it was competeing against WoW, EVE, and some other pretty name MMORPGs. It just couldn't compete, it didn't have the marketing and end game content it needed. Although, they were really pumping out content.

In the end, those are the only two options, compete or fail. Be it against WoW, AoC, WAR, EVE, or any other MMORPG.

And you are talking about something completely different, although I don't think you realize it. There is a big difference between "competing in the MMO market" as you stated, and "competing with WOW" which is what the OP presented. You can compete in the MMO market without competing directly with WOW. To reiterate his question:

"Regardless if you're a fan or a flamer, do you think this game will compete with WoW long-term?"

Originally posted by Antarious 

Then again what do you mean by "long term" ?

 

WoW came out in 2004.. so November of this year its basicly 5 years old?

 

In September UO will have been "live" 12 years... EA has signed Net Dragon to launch that game into new markets... a 12 year old game.. in new markets.

 

So the term "long term" might be a bit different based on point of view.  I wonder 7 years from now what the installed player base of WoW will be... etc

 

Success happens on many levels.. from a company point of view .. profit = success.

 I don't recall saying successful long term.  Maybe you meant that for the original poster?

However I don't think the length of time a game operates makes it a success.  Retaining players for a long time without massive drop offs is a success.  Growing subscribers beyond release numbers also looks to be successful.   Retaining the playerbase for a "long term" period of time is success, especially in the face of competition.

Vanguard for example is closing in on 3 years, but I would not call that game a success by any stretch of the imagination.

The way the market is right now, there is little reason for a game to lose momentum only a few months beyond release.  If a game delivers what it intends to, then it should easily keep growing the first year.  Closing servers, laying off staff and seeing massive drop offs in subscribers show that a game is not living up to its potential and has failed to meet initial expectations. 

Again I am sure that Vanguard has been cut so deep that it turns some small profit, but I doubt any company considers it a success.  

Any game can be trimmed down enough to avoid losing money, but that doesn't mean it is paying off the initial investment let alone be considered a success.  Right now there are more games avoiding failure than there really are success stories.

Short answer:

Western market, no. Eastern market, yes.

Originally posted by Hrothmund

Short answer:

 

Western market, no. Eastern market, yes.

Yup.. exactly my thoughs aswel.

The game system is clearly apealing to the eastern market.. from graphics to gameplay grind and gankfest after lvl 20, it is not a game the large majority of western players will bother playing after the intial month.

The average western player usually plays with friends and family, usually daddy momy sister brother thingie etc.. and those players wont pay a game where you can easly get ganked after lvl 20 or so by players 10 lvls higer [ usually kids with sexual complexes needing to vent their frustation in game ] who dont sleep, share accounts in order to get a lvl edge above the rest etc..

Add to that, the fact that Aion after 20 becomes a crappy griding game.. come on.. nowadays people have lives or most do.. the old school days of nonstop grinding to the point of exaustion are old.. at least in the West.

Really doubt Aion will hold more than 1 or 2 months with good sub numbers [ in the West ].

November gonna bring interesting stuff like Dragon Age Origins etc.. and that will burn Aion down as a pass time until Star Wars Old Republic comes out :)

Short term it'll probably do well based on hype alone.  Long term (2 months out) depends on how quickly the players get bored with the current content.  WoW didn't have a whole lot of content when it launched but most enjoyed the idea of leveling alts and playing different race/class combos.  In Aion it's hard to imagine players going through the same tedium over and over levels 1-30, since the leveling path is very linear and the only thing that changes would would be the classes (I think the game would stand to gain perhaps 1-2 more classes for diversity).

End game content makes or breaks your subscriber retension, everyone knows that.  Two things could kill that retention, if there isn't enough content to keep you satisfied, or the grind is too much (whether it be levels or abyss points) to keep going (WAR is the prime example of this).

simply put, no.

Originally posted by Psythos

 I think some of the wow player base are to afraid to hop off of the gear treadmill to try anything out. Step off for a couple months and your a couple tiers behind. Ive seen people say ''im gonna try it but i will play both so i dont miss raid nights in wow''. I had no plans at all of even trying it because to me it looked like wow 3.0. That opinion went right out th ewindow after i played it for a week. I played wow for probably 4 years and despite being a well developed game it has become a game i just dont feel like playing anymore. I played it for a year or 2 longer than intented because of friends. The sounds in the game are annoying. The type of people it is attracting are annoying. The elitist bullshit in that game with acheivements and gear tiers are annoying as well. What happened to playing games for fun. In the last year or so ive played wow i noticed people only do things related to gear.  ''what do i get for it'' , ''whats in it for me'' , ''how much honor?'' ,''what kind of tokens drop'' collectem all collectem all collectem all ,heh

lol most play with buddys 

so when they trade for another game it better do something awsome or make em win money or whatever it is because 

mmo wise wow is pretty much complete ,and the fact that blizzard has lot of variosu stuff anouced at blizzcon hurts a lot

the fact that wow will get an expension hurts a lot 

lot of gamer will postpone their p2p change and go f2p for a change of air

people dont like when i say this but the economy hurts the gaming comunity a lot 

so friends try to save where ever they can 

ddo is a great game dx10 to boot

rune of magic is another great game 

the chronicle of spellborn another great game all in free to play industry

im sorry if you guys feel slighted by the fact that lot of player feel they dont have their moneys worth in aion

yes its a good game,like lot of f2p game are also good

ncsoft hasnt showed what will make me go buy aion yet 

they might announce it a lunch (ya right)

but probably not they ll rely on the game only 

so i ll wait 3 month like i always do since i played wow 

then we ll see

one thing is sure ,lot of us will be back to wow when cataclysm lunch

and only one thing can prevent gamer from doing that 

an annoucement so great from ncsoft everybody will want in(for a share of the game)

I for one hope it won't compete with WoW. Please let the large masses stay there so we can keep Aion true to its goals.

I know you're trying to sound thoughtful Baseline, but I've seen this thread a thousand times before "How will X game compete with WoW?" You seem to think that developers need to set their sights on taking down the biggest fish in the sea. They don't; plenty of games are coexisting with WoW just fine. But hypothetically if I were really considering this issue I think we'd have to look at WoW's possible lifespan in regards to Aion's success. How long do we think WoW will keep going and will Aion still be going after that point?

If I were really optimistic I'd give WoW another 5 solid years, but personally I think we'll see a sharp decline in subs after 3. And it's not that WoW is a bad game or is getting boring, it's just the nature of MMO's in general. Then the question becomes will Aion survive past this point? Having not played the game I have to base my opinion off of the gaeplay videos I've seen. So far it looks promising, I don't see any reason Aion can't stick around for a while.

I love all the arguments on how Aion ripped off WOW.  Actually most MMORPG's rip off each other.  Most players of MMORPG's have only played WOW and never played the older MMORPG's.  Having played WOW for a couple of years, there was hardly any content in the game at launch. WOW took ideas from other mmorpg's and took out alot of the things that players did not like and made a very good game.  But they did rip off ideas from other mmorpgs.

I do not think Aion is trying to compete directly with WOW and take their crown.  NCsoft specializes in PVP type games and that alone will keep alot of players away.  I am not going to predict something I do not know.

Having beta tested and then trying the OB I like the game and I think it will do well.  The key is adding new content and making sure the balance between classes is kept up to date.  I found the game polished and fun.   The PVP was a blast and is head and shoulders above AOC, War, and WOW. 

I can remember way back when WOW was releasing teasers and alot of the same conversations about catoony graphics and content were turn offs to alot of players.  Not alot has changed over the years as here we are talking about the same things.

Our legion does have alot of ex WOW players and they love the game.  Most wanted a better PVP experience and did not like Warhammer. 

Who cares if it will kill wow or not?

They attract different audience Aion PvP fans that also like some PvE content while WoW the other way round attracts PvE and some little PvP.

Originally posted by EduardoASG

November gonna bring interesting stuff like Dragon Age Origins etc.. and that will burn Aion down as a pass time until Star Wars Old Republic comes out :)

Aion will be fine long term theres no doubt,the amount of content is pretty staggering,already played the 1.5 end game content and theres a tonne of it.

Getting to lvl 50 is in noway an easy feat even with the massive amount of quests.

You can't compare a single player with an mmo sorry but try something else to bash aion.