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I checked the stats today; 63.500 Xfire players were playing Wow yesterday, while War had 970 players.... That's a ratio of 65... to 1. Do you guys remember when War had a 6 to 1 ratio when it launched? That's a 10% of the original highest point ever (exactly one year ago). (When calculating the approx. number I took Wow 5.5 M western pleyers, EVE 300K, and Lotro 180 K) And so a ratio of 65 to 1 ... War has now around 80K active players. Indeed exactly 10% of the initial high 800K. -----> For those STILL doubting Xfire: the current servers for War is 5EU/5NA. That's indeed a maximum capacity of 100K players, apparently filled at 80%. The problem is that War has now less than 1K Xfire players, so the stats error rate will grow tremendously. AoC is around 70K players at the moment. And this bar graphs is a trend we saw ALL year. http://www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/ Now the good: I predict the exact same trend with Aion. The only thing is Aion will not get to that 6 to 1 point at launch.... And then we will discuss things .... why .... See you in 3 months. Now the WOW killers ARE killed. "Heads will roll". |
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Xfire is a terrible indicator of players. My guildies and I don't use Xfire and most of them still play WAR. |
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Originally posted by LtJohnnyRico
Reread the above: the checking WAS done with a 3 way point of "known subs numbers". Wow, EVE and Lotro. And the figures match with the currently open servers of WAR (10). So a 3 way point checking and server numbers shows the millions of Xfire users serve perfectly to analyse the number of players. Same for Aion btw: 250K players in open Beta and playing on .... 12 EU/12 NA servers at launch. Xfire was always was right on spot for western based MMO's.
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Originally posted by Zorndorf
Reread the above: the checking WAS done with a 3 way point of "known subs numbers". Wow, EVE and Lotro. And the figures match with the currently open servers of WAR (10). So a 3 way point checking and server numbers shows the millions of Xfire users serve perfectly to analyse the number of players. Same for Aion btw: 250K players in open Beta and playing on .... 12 EU/12 NA servers at launch. Xfire was always was right on spot for western based MMO's.
Oops, I did it again. I fed a troll! |
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We all already know that War is loosing subs left and right. I dont what is the purpose of this thread, why does players like to see other games die and other devs lost their jobs?
RIP, Orc Choppa |
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Originally posted by arctarus
The purpose is NOT to troll. The purpose is to show Xfire is a very reliable tool to view a game's activity. Always a nice parameter before investing time/money. And as I said, we'll discuss things why the graphs will repeat themselves. Too early now.
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Originally posted by Zorndorf
The purpose is NOT to troll. The purpose is to show Xfire is a very reliable tool to view a game's activity. Always a nice parameter before investing time/money. And as I said, we'll discuss things why the graphs will repeat themselves. Too early now.
Err, TF2 is #9 on that list, although it's the game I have most fun with these days. Does that mean I should have bought CS:S instead(although I have it,but I don't have as much fun as I do in TF2 so it probably wouldnt have been a good choice from the first place). The thing is, no real gamer would want a MMO to die, since they'd have better choices. Comparing MMOs with burger companies-the epitome of logic. |
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there are more then 5 eu servers for war btw :P at least 4 english.. then theres german and french servers aswell :P
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Originally posted by Zorndorf
Xfire is useful for looking back at general trends of the past. It's exteremely questionable when used to try and explain current short term trends that may or may not have any meaning. It's worthless at projecting trends into the future. To bring up AION, a game that hasn't even launched yet, in this context is absurd. It's not only too early to discuss it it's too early to even bring it up as some sort of pseudo-justification for your opinion on AION's prospects. If you think AION is going to tank that's fine but the premise of this thread is nonsensical. "Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice." ~Greys Law |
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Originally posted by Thenarius Err, TF2 is #9 on that list, although it's the game I have most fun with these days. Does that mean I should have bought CS:S instead(although I have it,but I don't have as much fun as I do in TF2 so it probably wouldnt have been a good choice from the first place). The thing is, no real gamer would want a MMO to die, since they'd have better choices. I am talking mmorpg's and only watch for number of players. The conclusion is simple: just watch Xfire to see how many players are playing a certain MMORPG and how it could influence its future (TR, Hellgate anyone?). No one is saying you can't play PotBS (like I also do btw). The fact remains that the total amount of AoC/War players is now down to around 150K. Both games combined had 1.5 M players little more than a year ago ... And that 10% call was always shown by Xfire. Up to the very last %. |
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Originally posted by zymurgeist
Xfire is useful for looking back at general trends of the past. It's exteremely questionable when used to try and explain current short term trends that may or may not have any meaning. It's worthless at projecting trends into the future. To bring up AION, a game that hasn't even launched yet, in this context is absurd. It's not only too early to discuss it it's too early to even bring it up as some sort of pseudo-justification for your opinion on AION's prospects. If you think AION is going to tank that's fine but the premise of this thread is nonsensical.
On the contrary: War had 500K players 3 days before launch (according to Xfire Beta AND later confirmed by Mythic). To grow in the first 3 weeks to 800K. Aion showed around 250K players on Xfire. And what do we see on their website? .... The game is planned to be launched with 12 EU/12NA servers .... And NCsoft is saying they have 300K pre orders running (no doubt counting the 10 euro paidand freely distributed trials for open Beta). I already predicted 4 weeks ago the game would launch around 300K with a furrther growth to 400K. all based on Xfire trends in recent years. It's all math really. Polish doesn't even have anything to do with it...
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xfire is crap way to figure out anything ----- i have over 40 players in my fps clan more than half rarely log into xfire--- and we have about 200 ACTIVE players in my WAR guild alone--- so your telling me that 15-20% of WAR population is from my guild alone-- lmao gtfo troll
the only thing xfire tells you is how many people who play any games actually log into xfire while playing-- thats it |
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Originally posted by Dkompoze
Xfire is an on line 24/7 sampling tool of a few million players. 99% of the people don't even need to install it. It's a sample and it works (as proven above). Be glad it is there to counter "the million's" boasted by all.
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Sounds like a case of spurious correlation to me.. |
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But you have to instal and log into xfire when playing games for it to count--- so what your saying is a program that probably less than half of the gaming population uses is an accurate thing to measure current population of certain games ???????? your for real ????? --- are you a little slow or something---- so i guess i can go to logitech website and see how many people bought g-15 keyboards and that will also give me an accurate population count of a certain game to? I like feeding trolls but his troll isnt as smart as most-- so i think im done feeding him-- have fun your little fantasy world troll |
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Originally posted by Zorndorf true heads will roll in various game when aion lunch ,just in beta everytime there was aion in beta action everygame dropped like 18% in just the small amount of time aion was on they got to the 25 place if i recall hell its only pre-buy lot of people dont pre-buy this game will be following wow very closelly withing a month it is the flavor of the month game ,like war was like aoc was the bigger picture here i m asking my self ,what is ncsoft trump card to keep player in the game is it pvp tourney ,rp contest etc what is coming for aion nobody knows ncsoft is keeping a very short leech on those in the know! |
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Originally posted by Zorndorf
On the contrary: War had 500K players 3 days before launch (according to Xfire Beta AND later confirmed by Mythic). To grow in the first 3 weeks to 800K. Aion showed around 250K players on Xfire. And what do we see on their website? .... The game is planned to be launched with 12 EU/12NA servers .... And NCsoft is saying they have 300K pre orders running (no doubt counting the 10 euro paidand freely distributed trials for open Beta). I already predicted 4 weeks ago the game would launch around 300K with a furrther growth to 400K. all based on Xfire trends in recent years. It's all math really. Polish doesn't even have anything to do with it...
So your claiming an unalterable trend based on a miniscule amount of data? They could have certainly made changes to turn Wahammer around. AoC bucked it's trend and didin't die completely as it's trend predicted. EVE defies all logic. WoW did not follow your supposed trend. Predicting future performance based on the past has always been dicey. Predicting it based on a single data point data is crystal ball reading. Math does not predict human behavior. Your asserting authority where none exists. Your crystal ball is cracked. I suspect AION will do well.I won't bring in hoodoo mumbo jumbo claiming it's math to support that. It's simply my opinion based on my instincts. I could be wrong. "Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice." ~Greys Law |
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BTW if your posting this garbage to predict how Aion is gonna do, why not post this in the Aion forums---- or let the truth be told wow-fanboy should post in wow forums FTL |
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Originally posted by Dkompoze
Do me a favor and look at the player numbers of MMORPG's. With the 3 point reference of WOW= 5.5 M, EVE = 300K and Lotro = 180K. then - with these references- caluclate the MMO's Xfire player numbers. Players that is NOT the playing time. Just for the fun. Here: do some work before argueing: http://www.xfire.com/genre/mmo/massively_multiplayer_online/ And ignore the games with lesser than 500 Xfire players. These samples are too low to give meanigful samples.
Then come back. To the above comment on predictions: I predicted weeks (even months ago) Aion would launch at 300K over here and reach an upper limit of 400K . I just used Aion weekends play of July ...... and I was right on top. The rest is easy: MMO published in the last 3 years have a retention rate of 30% at best in the first 3 months. No ball glasses: just plain figures. On launch an analylist said War would settle out a t 250 K 3 months after launch. Just plain industry watching. (Eve was a complete other story btw -np fantasy mmo - and already had 3 relaunches in 6 years.) Nothing supernatural about it.
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Well i dunno if AION will suffer the same fate as WAR, but from my personal experience of the 2. I played WAR in Beta it was a BLAST. I bought the game on launch and play for a month, left mostly because of the servers population issues, basicly leaving the player the choice of either queued servers vs empty one.
For AION i played 2 beta weekeed and found it UTTERLY BORING. I wont even buy the game. I havent played AION in 2 months and i have no desire to play it. I dont like the ASIAN atmosphere of the game, it feels like all those 100 free 2 play asian grinder and i found the questing really boring. Finally comparing both game at launch, WAR was superior to AION and yet it failed.... will see what happent to AION, it would'nt suprise me if in 1 year AION is in the same state as WAR. |
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What about people like myself that have multiple xfire accounts -- what about people who use xfire but only did 10- day free trials of games-- it still shows up in xfire as a game they own not a trial --- so how the hell is xfire accurate again ????
Using xfire to measure numbers,trends,etc leaves you with nothing more than a GUESSTIMATION at best
LIKE I SAID BEFORE BASED ON YOUR MATH MY WAR GUILD MAKES UP 15-20% OF THE ENTIRE WAR POPULATION-- so one guild on one server on one side (destro) makes up 15-20% of the entire pop of war ? |
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Originally posted by Dkompoze Use the techniques I gave above and do the calculations yourself. It is an interesting exercice. Easy really. You don't need it to enjoy a game, but I think it helps before investing in a game on the long term. I also play PotBS, but I know it can be done with any time soon. SO an informed customer is always better off.
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Originally posted by skadad there are 3 english servers (k8p is being merged as we speak) 1 french and 1 german, thats 3+1+1 = 5 :) |
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Germany has 3 Servers...sry dude;D |
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in all the other threads i keep hearing "5 eu servers left", so they must be lying, or not? i wouldnt know im not playing the game atm |
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