For the sake of MMO's i hope not.

From what I have seen, prospective players are expecting and wanting one type of game and bioware are making a different type so expect a lot of people to be disappointed in the end. I'm not saying it will be a failure, in terms of polish and content it will be a good game, interms of being a proper and decent MMORPG? i doubt it.

I'm sorry but i'm going to have to say not a chance.  While i don't think it'll do badly and is like to have hundreds of thousnads of subs in the beginning at least i don't see anything different to tempt that many people away from their current generic mmo's.  The question i'm curious about is whether or not it will be like every other game of it's kind and suffer a large drop in subs within a year

No because it won't have enough mindless grinding for the Asian MMO market, but it's still going to be huge.

Anyway, they would need over 10 million players at launch to beat wow.  That would do more harm than good, it would kill the servers.  Plus starwars appeals to a smaller audience than wow style fantasy.

Since 11 million are not likely going to do a mass exodus of WoW anytime soon, its fair to say they won't be the lead of the market. However, they will likely get a good grip with a strong playerbase, 250k in all likely hood.

No. At this point it is near impossible for Bioware to take the MMO lead with SWTOR due to the fact they are not getting the market coverage like NCSoft is with Aion or Blizzard with WoW. They might make a good run maybe as good as FF7 but I dont see it getting any better than that.

I highly doubt that they can take the lead.  There are way too many people still in love with WoW, or people that believe WoW is the end all be all to MMOs.

By the way I miss the MOG podcast.  I'm not sure if you guys still do it, but I unsubscribed since I haven't seen one in months.  You guys should get back into it!  You guys used to stray off topic a lot and talk a lot of shit, but that's what I loved about the show haha. 

considering from what they have shown its gonna be a single player game with online capabilities i can't see them garner over 1 mil subs

The game that knocks WoW off top spot is going to have to be DIFFERENT to WoW, I haven't seen enough from BioWare to convince me that is the case with SWTOR. My money is still on Bliz, WoW is going to be knocked off the top spot by it's successor.

Doubtful due to the very linear nature. If LOTRO couldnt do it or even come close then neither will SW. It will be its own worst enemy everyone will be a sith lord or jedi and to this point it will not hold the hardcore crowd . Many will play no doubt but anything more than 500k after the first 3 months will amaze me.

Originally posted by efefia

The game that knocks WoW off top spot is going to have to be DIFFERENT to WoW, I haven't seen enough from BioWare to convince me that is the case with SWTOR. My money is still on Bliz, WoW is going to be knocked off the top spot by it's successor.

Almost certainly.

There are ways Blizzard can make it happen, even if it wouldn't otherwise. They can simply let WoW degrade while polishing and expanding the new MMO.

They could - let established WoW players transfer to the new game with some in-game bonuses. That would destroy anyone hoping to match the new game.

If the new game is in a similar style (S & S) which I doubt, then it is likely they will sacrifice WoW to boost it.

If the new game is quite different in theme - Supers, or Horror, for example, then it's quite possible for the two to co-exist for a while.

This topic is too soon for discussion..

WoW is fail period anyone mindless enough to get stucked into that hunk of junk should take a step outside take a deep breath and realize the hours of life they just wasted...

11million ppl (this is all time)

lets do some math here. since i'm not sure what the max pop limit on wows servers are I'm gonna guess.

Lets say theres 10,000 on each server 243 servers i think wow has.

Thats 2,430,000

Lets say its 15,000

thats 3,645,000

regardless, there are people still playing that are sucked in to dope pve grinding for gear and terrabad pvp thats just going to be replaced by another level cap, more gear and more hours you could of been out at a party, club, family, that you wasted and can never get back. Just wait the next expansion will do the same you grind it then in 3-4 months you get to do it again...

However, this is with all MMOS but none have done it more successful than WoW..

So my tip to you WoW palyers, Eat a Cookie, play some WoW because really..... What does life have better to offer you?

Originally posted by Vandarix

This topic is too soon for discussion..

WoW is fail period anyone mindless enough to get stucked into that hunk of junk should take a step outside take a deep breath and realize the hours of life they just wasted...

11million ppl (this is all time)

lets do some math here. since i'm not sure what the max pop limit on wows servers are I'm gonna guess.

Lets say theres 10,000 on each server 243 servers i think wow has.

Thats 2,430,000

Lets say its 15,000

thats 3,645,000

It's always funny to see someone's incomplete math.

10, 000 or 15,000 per server ONLINE AT ONE TIME. Not the number of accounts which are current. IF you figure only 1/3 of accounts are online at any one time - then what totals do you get? Hmm?

The numbers that Bliz release are not "all time", they are current subscription numbers. 12 million was the last press release if memory serves me right. No need to go counting servers and taking wild guesses, it's right there... 12 million concurrent subscriptions.

Edit:

http://eu.blizzard.com/en/press/081223.html

11.5 million

"The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. "

PS, the most successful Star Wars game to date sold approx HALF the amount of boxes that WoW has in current subscribers, that includes all platforms as well, so the 3 major consoles and all handheld devices.

SWTOR would need to shift a minimum of 15 million units (to allow for attrition/burnout) to surpass WoW's subs numbers. Still think that's a realistic proposition?

Originally posted by MMO_Doubter

It's always funny to see someone's incomplete math.

 

10, 000 or 15,000 per server ONLINE AT ONE TIME. Not the number of accounts which are current. IF you figure only 1/3 of accounts are online at any one time - then what totals do you get? Hmm?

This was hypothetical suggesting that there were 10,000 players on each server (doesn't matter if they're online or not) subscription is a subscription.

now if you want to factor in that most those servers are low or medium population while maybe 20-30 of them are high popped.. then the numbers will be different yes which this is the case... So if you want to take 2,430,000 from that and factor in the high/low/medium pops on the servers then you're probably looking at 1.7mil (again hypothetical) I would be impossible for me to determine the actual population of WoW because I don't have access to blizzard data bases genius.

that math wasn't incomplete for the problem it was solving.. As for the actual population it is however.

Tacking on to this. in order for wow to have 11.5 million current subscription that would mean there almost 50,000 people per server with 243 servers. No 1 server in wow could handle 50,000 people without crashing constantly. that would mean there would constantly be 1,500 players if not more surrounding you at one time granted all 50,000 were online... lets cut that in half even 25,000 is unrealistic.

WoW has had a Total of 11.5 million subscriptions.. Those are not ALL active. Common sense should tell anyone that.

Originally posted by Vandarix

WoW has had a Total of 11.5 million subscriptions.. Those are not ALL active. Common sense should tell anyone that. 

So you're saying they are lying? Or didn't you bother reading the press release?

I'll save you the effort of reading it if you like, it's says....11.5 Million, current, paying subscribers

Originally posted by Vandarix

Tacking on to this. in order for wow to have 11.5 million current subscription that would mean there almost 50,000 people per server with 243 servers. No 1 server in wow could handle 50,000 people without crashing constantly. that would mean there would constantly be 1,500 players if not more surrounding you at one time granted all 50,000 were online... lets cut that in half even 25,000 is unrealistic.

WoW has had a Total of 11.5 million subscriptions.. Those are not ALL active. Common sense should tell anyone that.

 

The most polite way I can respond to that is to say that you are mistaken.

BTW, those 243 servers - is that worldwide or just outside of China?

Originally posted by efefia

Originally posted by Vandarix

WoW has had a Total of 11.5 million subscriptions.. Those are not ALL active. Common sense should tell anyone that. 

 

So you're saying they are lying? Or didn't you bother reading the press release?

I'll save you the effort of reading it if you like, it's says....11.5 Million, current, paying subscribers

yes, they're lying. Business is all about lying.

just sink this into your head 50,000 people even on the worlds lowest requirement game playing on one server would lag to all hell.

now factor in time zones and diff hours of game play..

 The majority of WoW players sit infront of the screen for 8+ hrs a day some even MORE. there would be 25,000 if not more on at one time all hours of the day... I can't think of any supercomputer that could handle all that information..

Originally posted by MMO_Doubter

Originally posted by Vandarix

Tacking on to this. in order for wow to have 11.5 million current subscription that would mean there almost 50,000 people per server with 243 servers. No 1 server in wow could handle 50,000 people without crashing constantly. that would mean there would constantly be 1,500 players if not more surrounding you at one time granted all 50,000 were online... lets cut that in half even 25,000 is unrealistic.

WoW has had a Total of 11.5 million subscriptions.. Those are not ALL active. Common sense should tell anyone that.

 

pretty sure thats worldwide i noticed Euro servers, etc. they would need 500+ servers to hold 11.5million

Originally posted by MMO_Doubter

Originally posted by Vandarix

Tacking on to this. in order for wow to have 11.5 million current subscription that would mean there almost 50,000 people per server with 243 servers. No 1 server in wow could handle 50,000 people without crashing constantly. that would mean there would constantly be 1,500 players if not more surrounding you at one time granted all 50,000 were online... lets cut that in half even 25,000 is unrealistic.

WoW has had a Total of 11.5 million subscriptions.. Those are not ALL active. Common sense should tell anyone that.

 

The most polite way I can respond to that is to say that you are mistaken.

 

BTW, those 243 servers - is that worldwide or just outside of China?

It's misinformation, there are currently 491 Servers covering EU/US regions, as the subscription base is split roughly 50/50 between Asia &EU/US it's reasonable to assume there's as many in Asia, so not far shy of 1000 servers globally.