Originally posted by Enkindu 

 

I'd consider that nothing more than truth in advertising, since all you are likely to see on that channel is another fine SyFy original movie like "Zombie Vampire Spiders from Outer Space IV."

Apparently there is good money in stupidity... everything is getting a whack from the "dumb down" hammer these days.

It's a shame too.. scifi used to be one of the only interesting channels left on the tube.  Oh well.

Intelligent people comprise too small a market to appeal to mass-market media like TV, movies, and MMOs.

This WoW being #1 is based on numbers, statistics, math right?

Ok so let's see if I get this, if the biggest number of people on xfire spend more hours on WoW then it has more market share then it's also logical to say that the massive amount of people that vote on mmorpg game rating represent the majority of the gamer community and their opinion of what is the best mmo around right?

With that in mind... WoW User Rating = 8.0 ---- Lineage2 User Rating = 8.1

'nuff said.

Originally posted by Zorndorf

The question is NOT if WOW will be on number one in 2012.

The question will be IF WOW will still have around 60% market share ?

http://www.xfire.com/genre/mmo/massively_multiplayer_online/

I think WOW will have a 70% marketshare in 2012.

So in fact it will even be bigger than today.

Reasons?

1. Every expansion widens the gap between the MIllions (of Blizzard) and the Thousands (the others).

2. Every new Fantasy mmorpg launched is pure publicity for the already known market leader : WOW.

3.  Motion picture will bring in MILLIONS of (again) new players. MMO play after Warcraft the Movie could explode from 1% of the population playing to 2% of the population playing on line in THE video gaming world.

4. WOW engine will be certainly brought to the new Xbox console (adapted for MMO and RTS play). The WOW engine will be used in a massivley played mmo with pop up dungeons and Battlegrounds. Adapted for the console market it will dwarf everything else. So strictly it is not WOW (too small so it could fit on a console), but in numbers and Lore  it is and it will dwarf all other MMO projects.

1, 2 and 3 are already facts.

Point 4 is already planned if you would look through the news this year (and yes Pardo's denials are far too weak).

So we are talking about the Top 10 ( most subs, positive press, strong playerbase ) premium ( 12,5 - 15€ per month ) western ( played in the western countries ) mmorpgs in 2012, hmm ...

My list would be

1. WoW

2. EVE Online

3. Aion

4. LOTRO

5. Final Fantasy XIV

6. Guild Wars 2

7. Champions Online

8. World of Darkness

9. Star Trek Online

10. One of the upcomming sci-fi sandboxes :

 Fallen Earh or Earthrise

Originally posted by Zorndorf

The question is NOT if WOW will be on number one in 2012.

The question will be IF WOW will still have around 60% market share ?

http://www.xfire.com/genre/mmo/massively_multiplayer_online/

I think WOW will have a 70% marketshare in 2012.

So in fact it will even be bigger than today.

Reasons?

1. Every expansion widens the gap between the MIllions (of Blizzard) and the Thousands (the others).

2. Every new Fantasy mmorpg launched is pure publicity for the already known market leader : WOW.

3.  Motion picture will bring in MILLIONS of (again) new players. MMO play after Warcraft the Movie could explode from 1% of the population playing to 2% of the population playing on line in THE video gaming world.

4. WOW engine will be certainly brought to the new Xbox console (adapted for MMO and RTS play). The WOW engine will be used in a massivley played mmo with pop up dungeons and Battlegrounds. Adapted for the console market it will dwarf everything else. So strictly it is not WOW (too small so it could fit on a console), but in numbers and Lore  it is and it will dwarf all other MMO projects.

1, 2 and 3 are already facts.

Point 4 is already planned if you would look through the news this year (and yes Pardo's denials are far too weak).

WoW will still be number one in 2012, but they will have lost marketshare. You can already clearly see now that WoW is leveling out in subsciption numbers, they are stagnating, slowly, but surely.

Originally posted by CyberWiz

 

WoW will still be number one in 2012, but they will have lost marketshare. You can already clearly see now that WoW is leveling out in subsciption numbers, they are stagnating, slowly, but surely.

 

Even though they make leveling faster, max level gets farther away (psychologically, at least) with each expansion, and lowbie areas are relatively barren. Even when you don't HAVE to group to level fast, a lot of people play these games to group and that's not a good option if you're not playing in primetime. I think a new system is needed to encourage the leveling of alts. I don't think heirloom items are the answer.

Originally posted by MMO_Doubter

Originally posted by CyberWiz

 

WoW will still be number one in 2012, but they will have lost marketshare. You can already clearly see now that WoW is leveling out in subsciption numbers, they are stagnating, slowly, but surely.

 

Even though they make leveling faster, max level gets farther away (psychologically, at least) with each expansion, and lowbie areas are relatively barren. Even when you don't HAVE to group to level fast, a lot of people play these games to group and that's not a good option if you're not playing in primetime. I think a new system is needed to encourage the leveling of alts. I don't think heirloom items are the answer.

thats what blizzard is working on. From the very little info given they will only be addin 5 new levels per expac as well as retooling the lower levels.

Originally posted by Spaceweed10

Originally posted by Dana

Jon breaks out his crystal ball and peers three years down the road. Which 10 games will dominate the market then?

This week, I dug deep into the old closet to pull out my trusty crystal ball. Gazing deep into its smoky depths, I asked a simple question: What MMOs will round out the Top 10 three years from now? Being a cantankerous old coot of a crystal ball, it told me that I needed to be more specific. Was it to base the list on subscriber numbers? Overall profitability? Random lottery? In the end we decided to look for a Top 10 list that took many factors into account, with subscribers, profitability, critical acclaim and fan support topping the list.

When I was putting this list together, there were a number of games that cropped up as possibilities that, for whatever reasons, I decided not to include in my top ten. The next Blizzard MMO, for example is left off because there’s a good chance it won’t yet have launched. It’s tough enough to define the Top 10 Games of 2009, let alone three years from now. Many quality titles didn’t make the list, but were kept firmly in mind. They include: The Secret World, The Agency, Copernicus, Lord of the Rings Online, Global Agenda and Fallen Earth.

Read more here.

 

And that is why this genre is now a dead duck.

Sad to say, I agree.

2012 is still three years away...and a lot can happen in three years.

So I want to make a prediction of my own for 2012.  I think the order of games in your list may be more or less correct, but I think the overall quantity of MMO players will decrease by 1/3 to 2/3 of what they are now.

That is to say, WoW may be king, I predict it will lose 4-10 million subscribers between now and 2012.  The other games may have significant playerbases, but the definition of significant will change.  I think the days of million-subscriber games will be more or less gone by 2012.  The reasons have to do with the following:

1)  The market is flooded with a lot of games, and there's no indication that quality is improving.  It is similar to what happened to cartriges in the early 1980's: a lot of games and a lot of options for multiplayer gaming (sub models, F2P browserware, consoles, peer-to-peer multiplayer systems, etc.) with more of an incentive to copy existing games than to create wholly new ways of gaming.

2)  Scams, buggy releases, and an ever-increasing price point for the player to enjoy the game is going to affect the consumer confidence in this genre, much the same way as it did in 1983-1984.

3)  The industry is counting on the 12 million subscribers to WoW will get sick of WoW and move on to their games instead, yet there is no indication that these 12 million really want to pick up another online game after they tire of WoW.

4)  There's little evidence that the current levels of interest in MMORPGs are permanent.  The likelihood that MMORPGs are a fad cannot be discounted.  It could be that MMOs, like most other technological entertainment options, are subject to a five-year meteoric rise in appeal followed by a five-year steep decline.  Look at the history of analog (late70's to mid 80's), 2D (mid 80's to mid 90's), 3D (early 90's to early 2000's), and online (early 2000's to, I predict, early 2010's).

5)  There are other options today to enjoy playing online with people without committing to the MMO conventions.  Peer-to-peer matchmaking services have come a long way, they are far less expensive for the consumer and the producer than MMOs, and they offer a lot more options for gaming than MMOs allow.

So I predict the games might be ordered as stated in the article, but the landscape will be much different in 2012.

  “Is there any legitimate or realistic reason to believe that WoW won’t still be the number one MMO on the market in 2012?”

Yes.

Final Fantasy is the 6th best selling franchise in video game history. The only RPG to beat it is pokemon--and i don't see any future plans to make a pokemon MMO so that leaves FF.

And since they've said they are going to add many casual elements (which i realllly hope they dont add too many) that will make it big.

Originally posted by Jquik

  “Is there any legitimate or realistic reason to believe that WoW won’t still be the number one MMO on the market in 2012?”

Yes.

Final Fantasy is the 6th best selling franchise in video game history. The only RPG to beat it is pokemon--and i don't see any future plans to make a pokemon MMO so that leaves FF.

And since they've said they are going to add many casual elements (which i realllly hope they dont add too many) that will make it big.

ok,  but not everyone can stomach a Asian style MMO.

FF is not Korean. Not that the origin matters

Originally posted by Wieland

Originally posted by Nicoo

People saying Diablo 3 isnt an mmorpg... Are you retarded?

What makes D3 not a mmorpg? The graphics? lol, retarded.

MMORPG = Massively Multiplayer Online Roleplaying Game
 

A Chatroom(Battlenet) doesnt qualify as Massively.

I predict Diablo 3 will be more of an MMORPG than Star Wars: The Old Republic will.

i don't want WoW to be #1 in 2012... seriously... it's damn overrated (and it was already overrated years ago!!!) and it's not even that good.

Guild Wars 2 will pwn WoW's overhyped butt. also, Lineage 2 should be on the list... or... Lineage 3?

"Lineage III is a sequel to Lineage II by NCsoft. The Lineage III project began January 1, 2008 and will be announced to the public in 2011"

Without the luxury of a crystal ball, I would have the top spot in my list as one of these three, with the other two (including WoW BLEH) being in close 2nd, 3rd, 4th.

Final Fantasy 14 might possibly be number one due to the cross-platform that has been up for talks since the word "Rapture" was released from SE.

Guild Wars 2, with it possibly being F2P?, could easily take the number one spot as well.  Alot of hours of my life have been spent alone in the instanced world of Guild Wars (and Nightfall).  Perhaps with a more open world, where others can play in the same instance would be nice (out of party).

If anything in pop culture can teach us anything, it's that super heros equal money.  From "The 3", I think either Champions or DC will be further up on the list (sorry, Batman > X-Men).

Then, of course, the elephant in the room, WoW.  WoW has seen steady numbers, and nothing seems to show me otherwise that it won't stay on top.  Just wishful thinking that it won't be in 3 years :)

Can someone please save this somewhere so we can throw it in his face =P

I applaud the attempt but i just dont buy it. STO and SW:TOR in the top 5, yeah definitely. a Superhero game up there yeah. Aion - not so sure. APB - definitely not sold on that idea. Eve? uh, your own criteria should keep that one out of the top 10.

You know, i think there might even be a console mmo in the mix there, but probably not yet by 2012. Given the new things like Natal (though i doubt that will do it) and Sony's new motion control system, i cant wait for mmos that really let you "be who you were born to be" to quote a lotro (or other LOTR game) ad.

Picture that tech demo where the guy was using the two wands (kinda like dual wii motes) and it represented them like a bow and the other hand was knocking the arrows, and a button press (i assume) to release. Add that to a freaking mmo where you got a party of 5 people, and we're not that far from actually playing .hack sign in VR.

Next step between where we are now and there is the motion control/video capture software stuff in development. Then we go to triple bigscreens for more peripheral vision - i mean think about how much a human can actually see, and how much a screen represents. Most people see right around 180 degrees, some (like myself) a little bit more. A screen, even sitting 4-5 feet from a 50" bigscreen is only say 60-80 degrees, rough guess. My 19" flatscreen here at 2-3 feet is like 30-40 tops. So yeah, once you get past the lack of real visualization, and into either multiple screens, or matrix style crap....oofa. Cant wait =P On that same note, imagine FPS games, it's gonna be more like that new movie coming out "gamer" only not controlling a real person obviously, but gameplay will be like what's shown in the commercials. Potential for that kind of gaming is just staggering.

I know, i got off on a tangent, but it's late and im waiting for 8am to roll around so i can play champions lol.
 

I can't believe you placed World of Darkness at number 6. Honestly, that's bogus. It's should be at least number 2 and Champions Online closing in on a top 5 position. WoW won't be number one but it'll hold a top 5 spot just because of the numbers it attracts (or attracted as they're LOSING players). I think you just gave more bullshit hype to a game (WoW) that needs to die already...

I think WoW keeps getting people back into WoW by coming out with new content in the expansion packs. I know I have gotten sucked back in twice by the expansions and quickly gotten bored with them. So, by keeping people coming back with new content, what more do they have to explore in the Warcraft universe? Arthas was the end all-be all in Warcraft. He's in this expansion. So what next? I mean, it doesn't matter to me. I won't be going back to play the game again. But what more can they possibly come out with to sucker people back into playing that will keep them on top in 3 years?

 Great post as usual and nice picks...

I'm participating in the Fallen Earth Beta and I finally got what I was looking for and I think it might have a good spot on 2012, specially because M rated MMOs haven't really done a good job on the past years (Bloddymare:Requiem / AoC), as imho they all think that M rate is for nudity and gore, and that´s not it, a M rated MMO is a complex, skill based game that requires a great effort and maturity to be played, and Fallen Earth is delivering that with great competence...

...But I have to agree that WoW is probably still going to be the king of the hill by that time, and I think of that because games like Aion keep coming out and it bores me to death, while people try to make games LIKE WoW, people are going to play more and more WoW, and that's not a bad thing, as for the "new" things people ask all the time are being brought in WoW all the time with great content patches and expansions....

Lol but I would like to point something out, most people on this and many other threads in the forum are burning WoW to the ground, so where are the 12 million guys playing that game !?

 I personally believe that if SE doesn't completely mess up FFXIV (which isn't likely, if they do it the same way they did XI), it'll rule the PvE of MMO's. It'll never be the 'best' MMO however only because it doesn't focus on PvP which will make lots of players avoid it. I think it'll be on top 3 anyway though, since it's PvE will be better than any other games out there.

WoW may still be a behemoth in 2012.

It will also remain a simplistic kid's game.

Good read Jon,

I'll be interested to see which of the super hero's games take's off, I really enjoy COH. I'm also hoping the old republic will add something exciting and new to MMO's, that seems to have been a lot of rehashing recently (although some nice polish).

As to WoW I got talked into playing again, and I've finally leveled a character to 80, but I've just ended my subscription, as it just gets to boring after awhile.

Great article Jon - interesting read.

Personally, I'm hoping for the success of GW2 and Knights of the Old Republic, since those are games I'm interested in playing.  I also think that Second Life (or worlds like that) is going to continue to have a presence.   Some people like to be part of making their world, and some people like to be in an online world without the emphasis on RPG structure.  I'm also wondering about the success of games such as Free Realms, targeted to a younger crowd but I know a number of adults who are playing it and having a great time.

As for WoW, I don't play WoW myself (might one day) but I always applaud Blizzard's success - they made a game that so many people want to play.  I think that's a good thing. 

On a different note - one of the things I'm hoping for, with the new tools and infrastructure out there, is smaller, more niche oriented MMOs that can make a go of it.   In my ideal world, one slot of "most popular" MMOs would be filled by a very successful group of MMOs that have subscriptions of, oh 1000 - 5000 in number with active populations of people happily playing them. 

Dont forget the secret world by Funcom, MMO based on the work of  H.P. Lovercraft.

You guys are forgetting that D3 will not be an mmorpg because it is NOT a persistant world nor is it massive.

I don't think Wow will be in the top spot even at the end of 2010. and here is why.
 

WoW has a ton of subs fron asia and there are some really cool games comming out soon that will practically cripple their subs over there. Namely from Emil Chronicle online. When the beta testers are begging on any forum they can find on info about when will OB start you know they have something good there.And it isn't the normal people complaining about CB ending it's like a zealot professing his undying love for his god. ECO will do very well.

FFXIV will take a ton of subs from WoW. Anyone who played FFXI for longer than a year will undoubtably try FFXIV immediately. This success will be fueled by the fact that the FFXI 500k community will flock to the new game as well.

EVERYONE will try SWTOR......no really EVERYONE. If Bioware hits it out of the ballpark it's game over, nuff said.

Jumpgate Evolution. should be pretty popular. I am skeptical about netdevil's ability to make a next gen MMO world. but I really hope they get it right.

Black Prophesy, I think this game will surprise a lot of people. The devs seem extremely competent and are making a world that I will have to try.

FPS mmo's......I don't see any on the horizon that I think will amount to anything notable, and I play FPS games.......scratch that Global Agenda looks awesome and will proably pull in a substantial subscriber base.

Add onto that Champions online and DC universe and a slew of upcomming promising titles and I see WoW subs taking a severe beating next year. Expecially now that the release too early = failure fiasco's have shown the developers that the only way to sucess is to release a polished product.

Karos online looks very good, and if the Diablo 2 1.13 patch is awesome we might also see a flock of people going old school D2 for a while.

Interesting writeup and I mostly agree with it except for Aion.

I honestly don't think Aion is going to do as well as the hype is hinting at.   Having tried it during it's two open events so far I just can't get into it.  Nor can most of the folks I know who have tried it.  The quests are boring (at best) and if you don't quest the game is extraordinarily grindy.   The crafting system is an outright joke and the classes are excruiciatingly linear.  I just don't see it going anywhere in the long run.