Them's fighting words! During a recent conference call, NCsoft CFO Jaeho Lee stated, "I believe the performance of Aion in the US and European markets will be very successful. ... We are guessing that Aion will be -- could be -- the second [most] successful MMO in the US market next to World of Warcraft".

Looks like it is on! It's on like Donkey Kong!

So, what do you make of this? Can Aion hope to hit #2? And if so, will #2 be a distant second? Or do you think Aion could actually reach numbers in the same ballpark as Blizzard's 800lb gorilla? Let us know in the comments below!

Via MaximumPC

What do you mean its on? Not like there is much competition for the number 2 spot i mean what there WAR LOTRO and AOC. Two of those games are on the decline.

Eh, that really isn't saying much in my opinion. In regards to the triple A mmo's out there the subscription numbers in comparison to WoW is rather pedistrian so gaining the #2 foothold is not a difficult feat to accomplish. I believe Aion will be able to capture this at the present time but still a distant #2 at this point. In 2010 who knows what will happen since there are a number of heavily awaited MMO's that should be released then. I'm just hoping this gaming genre picks up and we get more selection of good polished games to play.

Dont forget EvE online, its surpassed WAR back in january with 300,000 active subs. Not sure if that puts them at #2 or #3 all depends on LOTRO's sub numbers.

Meh, for a safe 2nd place you just need around 500k subs, so he probably will fulfill his "taunt" to the competitors.

LOTRO will be getting to China soon, so that should rocket the "subscription" numbers to maybe 1 or 2 mil. 

Still, it's entertaining to see that Aion is an ambicious project, I just wonder how the replayability factor will play in keeping ours subs.

Originally posted by Zhauric

Eh, that really isn't saying much in my opinion. In regards to the triple A mmo's out there the subscription numbers in comparison to WoW is rather pedistrian so gaining the #2 foothold is not a difficult feat to accomplish. I believe Aion will be able to capture this at the present time but still a distant #2 at this point. In 2010 who knows what will happen since there are a number of heavily awaited MMO's that should be released then. I'm just hoping this gaming genre picks up and we get more selection of good polished games to play.

Which is why I also asked the question -- does #2 only mean a distant second, or do you think Aion can approach WoW-like numbers?

Originally posted by Pyrostasis

Dont forget EvE online, its surpassed WAR back in january with 300,000 active subs. Not sure if that puts them at #2 or #3 all depends on LOTRO's sub numbers.

EVE is a great game! But its nature wont allow it to score numbers that other MMOs do.

And this is a good thing. Imagine  Blizzard running EVE, then the game would have millions of subscribers but would have been swallow as an arcade game.

 I can see it holding 2nd or 3rd place. 

I dont think it will come near wow number's, If it does it certinly wont hold them due its linear nature.

But its good look forward to playing it. 

Originally posted by Elesthor

Originally posted by Pyrostasis

Dont forget EvE online, its surpassed WAR back in january with 300,000 active subs. Not sure if that puts them at #2 or #3 all depends on LOTRO's sub numbers.

 

EVE is a great game! But its nature wont allow it to score numbers that other MMOs do.

And this is a good thing. Imagine  Blizzard running EVE, then the game would have millions of subscribers but would have been swallow as an arcade game.

How come not? A 300k sub number probably places it in 3rd or 2nd place. And the best thing about EVE is that their numbers only seem to rise, fact that comes as close as it can to show it is a solid and constantly improving game. Few MMOs seem to accomplish that.

Also EVE's Plexes being the innovation in the fight against RMTs (rather than making item malls they prefer to allow the "trade" of monthly "timecards" ingame) provides a noticeable profit, as seen in this dev blog http://www.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&bid=684

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Originally posted by Pyrostasis
Dont forget EvE online, its surpassed WAR back in january with 300,000 active subs. Not sure if that puts them at #2 or #3 all depends on LOTRO's sub numbers.

---

Surpassed Warhammer with 300k subs in January? Eh? In January Warhammer had like 750k players. It wasn't till after that it went DOWN to 300k (I am one of those people that left).

I know EvE guys like to preach about how great it is but seriously.

As to Aion, I've enjoyed what I've seen so far but it's a PVP game, it won't be remotely near the scale of WoW. I'll be playing it. It might put the nail in Warhammer and it might be 2nd place but I just can't imagine it'll be very popular for long due to the PVP focus.

I don't think it will get anywhere near WoWs numbers. It is no secret that WoW is a very mainstream game which is played by people who weren't into MMOs before.

It is based on a famous franchise, has the Blizzard logo on it and has a very neutral look (even if a little cartooney) which isn't offputting for the mainstream player.

Aion on other hand is strictly Anime with happy angels and japanese faces. I can tell right now that many averege 14 - 16 year olds will look at the box and go "baah this looks gay".

Also, if Warhammer Online couldn't do it, a game which is very well done and in many ways is better then WoW (at least in my opinion) and has a look which aims for the "hardcore gamer", I highly doubt Aion will do any better.

Right, those are my predictions.

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Originally posted by EricDanie

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Originally posted by Elesthor

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Originally posted by Pyrostasis

Dont forget EvE online, its surpassed WAR back in january with 300,000 active subs. Not sure if that puts them at #2 or #3 all depends on LOTRO's sub numbers.

---

 
EVE is a great game! But its nature wont allow it to score numbers that other MMOs do.
And this is a good thing. Imagine  Blizzard running EVE, then the game would have millions of subscribers but would have been swallow as an arcade game.

---

How come not? A 300k sub number probably places it in 3rd or 2nd place. And the best thing about EVE is that their numbers only seem to rise, fact that comes as close as it can to show it is a solid and constantly improving game. Few MMOs seem to accomplish that.
Also EVE's Plexes being the innovation in the fight against RMTs (rather than making item malls they prefer to allow the "trade" of monthly "timecards" ingame) probably yields then 1.5 or even twice the money they get from subs.

---

---

Also, if Warhammer Online couldn't do it, a game which is very well done and in many ways is better then WoW (at least in my opinion) and has a look which aims for the "hardcore gamer", I highly doubt Aion will do any better.

---

God they just keep raising it higher and higher, don't they? Oh well, it'll make the fall much more enjoyable to laugh at.

Like many people said its not hard to reach number 2 on todays market and im sure Aion will make it and stay there for some time

i dont think that aion will get much subs.

i dont even think it will get in the top 5 mmos.

why, graphics  are great but subs dont want better graphics anymore, come how better do u need the graphics to get, im ok with the graphics of games today they are visaully nice.

aion is not targeting realism so i dont look at the graphics as a high point and if you  judge a game on that point or base a game on that point you find out that you will be disappointed.

i think most people have got their eyes on mortal online when it comes out, while its totally different and its just like elder scrolls which was a hit and once news spreads of this game.

all this hyper is just like warhammer, now look at warhammer.

aion is going to flop, so they are saying its targetted at western players, soooo whats a western game to do with it being a success?

the flying looks like only good point, but theres already more polished flying games out there.

not to mention the game will peak at the start like age of conan which was another flop.

developers need to stop basing games on graphics these days, because we crossed that line where graphics are soo good, we cant really notice that much  these days.

look at games that are big hits.

l4d graphics are not all that, but gameplay is great.

another zombie game, killing floor is gaining more and more people and lots of people are asying its better then l4d yet its graphics are OMG.

and i think uses a engine from 4 years ago.

cod4, They polished the perk system online, also with the great storymode that made you feel like a solider for example the sniper level.

some games in the past got role of the best.

for example world of warcraft, had many many fans aleady from the warcraft series.

just think if the people who made age of empires 3 or halo 3 made a mmo, that game will be a huge success because more people know about it and relate to the mmo.so really you have to put all these and put together and when you look at aion you can see its not that great ands its generic, doe i do like the one wing thing :D might try out hte game if the price drops to 20 quid but i would not pay 50 pound and then subscription.

All this stuff is Called HYPE, people are just hyping the game up and im not talking about subs im talking about all those people who get paid or make blogs about mmos, becasue thats called advertising and hypering.

dont fall for the bullshit.

with mmos, its a love or hate it thing with every person, as every different person has different tastes.

and im  sure alot of people who pay for mmos are biased against eastern mmos.

Originally posted by ange10

i dont think that aion will get much subs.

 

i dont even think it will get in the top 5 mmos.

 

why, graphics  are great but subs dont want better graphics anymore, come how better do u need the graphics to get, im ok with the graphics of games today they are visaully nice.

aion is not targeting realism so i dont look at the graphics as a high point and if you  judge a game on that point or base a game on that point you find out that you will be disappointed.

i think most people have got their eyes on mortal online when it comes out, while its totally different and its just like elder scrolls which was a hit and once news spreads of this game.

all this hyper is just like warhammer, now look at warhammer.

 

aion is going to flop, so they are saying its targetted at western players, soooo whats a western game to do with it being a success?

the flying looks like only good point, but theres already more polished flying games out there.

 

not to mention the game will peak at the start like age of conan which was another flop.

 

developers need to stop basing games on graphics these days, because we crossed that line where graphics are soo good, we cant really notice that much  these days.

look at games that are big hits.

l4d graphics are not all that, but gameplay is great.

 

another zombie game, killing floor is gaining more and more people and lots of people are asying its better then l4d yet its graphics are OMG.

and i think uses a engine from 4 years ago.

cod4, They polished the perk system online, also with the great storymode that made you feel like a solider for example the sniper level.

some games in the past got role of the best.

for example world of warcraft, had many many fans aleady from the warcraft series.

just think if the people who made age of empires 3 or halo 3 made a mmo, that game will be a huge success because more people know about it and relate to the mmo.so really you have to put all these and put together and when you look at aion you can see its not that great ands its generic, doe i do like the one wing thing :D might try out hte game if the price drops to 20 quid but i would not pay 50 pound and then subscription.

All this stuff is Called HYPE, people are just hyping the game up and im not talking about subs im talking about all those people who get paid or make blogs about mmos, becasue thats called advertising and hypering.

dont fall for the bullshit.

with mmos, its a love or hate it thing with every person, as every different person has different tastes.

 

and im  sure alot of people who pay for mmos are biased against eastern mmos.

 

 

You do you keep speaking about graphics? You actually played the game?

The game could be played in minimum quality that I wouldnt give a crap, what i enjoy in this game is the gameplay polish and all the options it allows, like world pvp, pvpve dungeons, castle sieges, meaningfull crafting possibilities and so much more

Originally posted by tryklon

Originally posted by ange10

i dont think that aion will get much subs.

 

i dont even think it will get in the top 5 mmos.

 

why, graphics  are great but subs dont want better graphics anymore, come how better do u need the graphics to get, im ok with the graphics of games today they are visaully nice.

aion is not targeting realism so i dont look at the graphics as a high point and if you  judge a game on that point or base a game on that point you find out that you will be disappointed.

i think most people have got their eyes on mortal online when it comes out, while its totally different and its just like elder scrolls which was a hit and once news spreads of this game.

all this hyper is just like warhammer, now look at warhammer.

 

aion is going to flop, so they are saying its targetted at western players, soooo whats a western game to do with it being a success?

the flying looks like only good point, but theres already more polished flying games out there.

 

not to mention the game will peak at the start like age of conan which was another flop.

 

developers need to stop basing games on graphics these days, because we crossed that line where graphics are soo good, we cant really notice that much  these days.

look at games that are big hits.

l4d graphics are not all that, but gameplay is great.

 

another zombie game, killing floor is gaining more and more people and lots of people are asying its better then l4d yet its graphics are OMG.

and i think uses a engine from 4 years ago.

cod4, They polished the perk system online, also with the great storymode that made you feel like a solider for example the sniper level.

some games in the past got role of the best.

for example world of warcraft, had many many fans aleady from the warcraft series.

just think if the people who made age of empires 3 or halo 3 made a mmo, that game will be a huge success because more people know about it and relate to the mmo.so really you have to put all these and put together and when you look at aion you can see its not that great ands its generic, doe i do like the one wing thing :D might try out hte game if the price drops to 20 quid but i would not pay 50 pound and then subscription.

All this stuff is Called HYPE, people are just hyping the game up and im not talking about subs im talking about all those people who get paid or make blogs about mmos, becasue thats called advertising and hypering.

dont fall for the bullshit.

with mmos, its a love or hate it thing with every person, as every different person has different tastes.

 

and im  sure alot of people who pay for mmos are biased against eastern mmos.

 

 

 

You do you keep speaking about graphics? You actually played the game?

The game could be played in minimum quality that I wouldnt give a crap, what i enjoy in this game is the gameplay polish and all the options it allows, like world pvp, pvpve dungeons, castle sieges, meaningfull crafting possibilities and so much more

most peopel are hypering its graphics, as the wow killer, as you stated with the pvp,pvpve,dungeons,castle sieges and crafting.

i seen all that, like every mmo has those elements so whats the difference.

the more i read about this game, the more it sounds like perfect world.

custormising your character, looks promising, but won't u be wearing gear most of the time, and i think only a hardcore gamer would spend time on how their character looks.

sooooo, what has aion got that has'nt been seen before???

Originally posted by ange10

Originally posted by tryklon

Originally posted by ange10

i dont think that aion will get much subs.

 

i dont even think it will get in the top 5 mmos.

 

why, graphics  are great but subs dont want better graphics anymore, come how better do u need the graphics to get, im ok with the graphics of games today they are visaully nice.

aion is not targeting realism so i dont look at the graphics as a high point and if you  judge a game on that point or base a game on that point you find out that you will be disappointed.

i think most people have got their eyes on mortal online when it comes out, while its totally different and its just like elder scrolls which was a hit and once news spreads of this game.

all this hyper is just like warhammer, now look at warhammer.

 

aion is going to flop, so they are saying its targetted at western players, soooo whats a western game to do with it being a success?

the flying looks like only good point, but theres already more polished flying games out there.

 

not to mention the game will peak at the start like age of conan which was another flop.

 

developers need to stop basing games on graphics these days, because we crossed that line where graphics are soo good, we cant really notice that much  these days.

look at games that are big hits.

l4d graphics are not all that, but gameplay is great.

 

another zombie game, killing floor is gaining more and more people and lots of people are asying its better then l4d yet its graphics are OMG.

and i think uses a engine from 4 years ago.

cod4, They polished the perk system online, also with the great storymode that made you feel like a solider for example the sniper level.

some games in the past got role of the best.

for example world of warcraft, had many many fans aleady from the warcraft series.

just think if the people who made age of empires 3 or halo 3 made a mmo, that game will be a huge success because more people know about it and relate to the mmo.so really you have to put all these and put together and when you look at aion you can see its not that great ands its generic, doe i do like the one wing thing :D might try out hte game if the price drops to 20 quid but i would not pay 50 pound and then subscription.

All this stuff is Called HYPE, people are just hyping the game up and im not talking about subs im talking about all those people who get paid or make blogs about mmos, becasue thats called advertising and hypering.

dont fall for the bullshit.

with mmos, its a love or hate it thing with every person, as every different person has different tastes.

 

and im  sure alot of people who pay for mmos are biased against eastern mmos.

 

 

 

You do you keep speaking about graphics? You actually played the game?

The game could be played in minimum quality that I wouldnt give a crap, what i enjoy in this game is the gameplay polish and all the options it allows, like world pvp, pvpve dungeons, castle sieges, meaningfull crafting possibilities and so much more

 

most peopel are hypering its graphics, as the wow killer, as you stated with the pvp,pvpve,dungeons,castle sieges and crafting.

i seen all that, like every mmo has those elements so whats the difference.

the more i read about this game, the more it sounds like perfect world.

custormising your character, looks promising, but won't u be wearing gear most of the time, and i think only a hardcore gamer would spend time on how their character looks.

sooooo, what has aion got that has'nt been seen before???

The question is not about the features it has, offcourse many other games have them, its about the way they are implemented and the way they are played, many other games tried but it seems to me this guys are finally getting it right, and I dont know why people insist this is not possible, why not?

I think Aion will hit somewhere around 1-2 million subs in the NA and globally be around 7-8 million. It's a linear game with a nice appeal. It's also built like WoW in the fact that its easy to get into, plays like a champ on modern and old systems, and has a lot of content to work with from the start. The only thing that WILL hold Aion back is Gameguard. If they remove it, they can count on high sub numbers. But if they keep it, the program alone will cost them a few hundred thousand subs because of the way it detects. Some people may think I'm being looney, but the game just feels like what WAR could have been in some ways. Plus AIon has a nice story, and some nice features taboot!

 Some are down playing the significance of a number 2 ranking in the US and Europe. But it is actually very significant for them to gain more ground in the western market. Even with poor competition, that would be a big win for NCsoft.

Originally posted by MikeB

Them's fighting words! During a recent conference call, NCsoft CFO Jaeho Lee stated, "I believe the performance of Aion in the US and European markets will be very successful. ... We are guessing that Aion will be -- could be -- the second [most] successful MMO in the US market next to World of Warcraft".

And right there, folks, is the beginning of the downfall of AION.

I'm sorry, but the last time NCsoft got cocky was when they believed the Garriott brothers were the second coming of Christ. Remember that little dead game? Tabula Rasa?

Personally, I believe AION may do 500k non-goldfarming/botting subs in NA at the end of 6 months, if that. Regardless of how much they try to convince themselves otherwise, they do NOT understand western gamers.

Getting number 2 sure sub numbers for these crappy mmo's lately basically allow every game to release and be number 2 can they last who knows and will it be even really close is a bigger question and to those I say no across the board.  But since I have no interest in aion I'm probably not the one to ask.

If Aion provides a quality PVP experience with balanced servers and no major issues or introductions of controversial things (item mall, etc...), the game will do well. Also, if NCSoft keeps bots and hacks under control.

If it fails to have a good PVP experience and the quality of the PVP is poor, it will do very badly.

It all depends on the PVP at the end game and how it is. Nobody can really foresee that.

The question is not about initial subs, but long term. Can the game keep people around? Every game has great initial subs - Champion's Online will as did AOC and WAR. But the long term staying power was the issue.

Personally, my opinion is that Aion will have limited staying power and once the initial "honeymoon period" wears off, the game will lose players. It I was going to forecast US subs, I would put it around 300-500k at around the 6 months mark.

However, when the new WOW expansion, SW:TOR and Star trek Online hit, that number will drop.

The games with the most to fear from Aion are AOC and WAR simply because their end game is built around PVP and with PVP you need numbers and Aion will offer a lot of people playing whereas AOC and WAR do not. Mythic and Funcom have a lot to fear from the game launching.

Last guy that challenged WoW openly doesn't have a job right now. 

Originally posted by Scalebane

Last guy that challenged WoW openly doesn't have a job right now. 

Who was that :o ?
 

I think Aion will do well, there no telling how well till it goes live. But i do know the ppl who have been in beta and who i've spoke to really enjoy it and can't wait for the launch.