i think blizzard will release a new mmo in 2012-2013...it just seems right...they even said they are making one .

Think Jon might need a better crystal ball.  It's entirely possible that in 2010 WoW may not have the top subscriber numbers worldwide, let alone by 2012.

Unless WoW does a complete graphics overhaul and changes some fundamental mechanics, I do not think it will be #1.  It will be up there but not #1. 

Its very difficult to overhaul the graphics of a game with that much content.  Blizzard is working on a new MMO (which i think will be starcraft online) which probably wont be out until 2013. 

You know. I can't even find warhammer 40k in the games list on this site.  Does this guy even know it is in development?  I know very little info is released on the game but it is moving along

Originally posted by Zorvan

 

How do I know this? Why don't you try keeping up with current events in the Stagate Worlds section, k? And there is no "Scifi" channel anymore. It's SyFy.

Eeeew. Whoever came up with that name needs brain surgery.

My top 5 in NA/EU:

1: GW2

With a free to pay model, and being a recent game with a successful past, it will sell so well that it will probably be the one to dethrone wow.

2: WoW

Even tho wow it's aging, there are many people playing it right now that it will be impossible for any game to kill it, it wont be the top dog forever though, and that's why I placed it as second.

3: Swtor

Probably one of the most hyped MMOs in history due to a huge fanbase, it should do well, even if its not going to be a good classic MMORPG.

4: Aion

The long term dynamics of its gameplay and the guild content should keep it alive and kicking for a bunch of years.

5: FFXIV

Huge franchise and a good company behind it, even if the franchise has been going down after the milestone of FFVII.

Originally posted by Kesarion

I hope Blizzard doesn't continue World of Warcraft, they could just make something else, maybe continue with Warcraft 4 like they said they would when the teams finished their current projects. That wow is just terribly boring, I played when it launched in 2004 for a bit, quit rather fast.

 

I mean really, they've just been milking that dead cow for 6 years. Why don't those necromancers at Blizzard move onto something else ?

 

Personally I can't wait for Aion this year and later APB. I'm hoping they will revive my interest for mmos.

Nice logic!  Blizzard should stop milking a dead cow which generates around $100million per month because you played for a couple of months almost 5 years ago and found it boring.  I don't understand your issue, if you don't like the game then by all means don't play it, however don't gripe at Blizzard for running a successful business.  All the while Blizzard have a large subscriber base, like it or not, they are unlikely to drastically depart from their current formula.

Whilst on the subject, basing your opinions on a brief period of playing five years ago is also a weak argument for Blizzard canning the most successful MMORPG in history.  Believe it or not they have actually spent the last five years developing the game which means now it is substantially different to what you may have played 5 years ago.  Had you played WoW recently or posted this five years ago you could have made an informed opinion but as it stands your opinion is basically worthless.

You might also be interested to know Aion has a significant amount of game play elements in common with WoW, so you are likely to find that boring as well.  Perhaps you should contact NCSoft now before they accidentally release a dead cow which ends up generating millions of dollars.

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Originally posted by Every d-bag with a hyper-inflated opinion
SW:TOR will fail because I don't like it. Too wordy.
STO will fail because I don't like it. Too Trekky.
FFXIV will fail because I don't like it. I have no idea why.
Aion will fail because I don't like it. Not hardcore enough, I can't blow up someone else's PC when I PK them.
WoW will fail because I'm jealous. Oh and I don't like it.

 

Top 3 MMOs in 2012 will be (and I know this because I have a DeLorean with ultraflux technology)
3. XXXtreme Solitaire
2. Bejeweled Arena
1. (Insert single-player game from 1996)

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Please feel free to replace every post in this thread with this one above.

Oh, and good list, Jon. One serious question I have for anyone saying WoW will not be #1 - are you counting on WoW losing subs to push it back, or the market gaining that many players who will go to one other game? As boring as WoW is to me personally, and evidently many others, we still can't deny its success. Not even counting China, 5-6 million subs is a hefty amount to overcome.  And keep in mind, before WoW the big one was L2 with around 2.5 million, mostly Asian players.

Thanks for the article. I don't agree with some of your predictions I'm afraid.

WoW will surely be an MMORPG that is still being played in 2012. But number one? I sincerely doubt that. I played the game for 3 years. By some people's standards thats a long time. Theres nothing that could bring me back to that game now, beyond a complete graphical overhaul and new mechanics in the game that give progression beyond new equipment and levels. Even with that, I'm bored of the story that is a tongue-in-cheek amalgamation of the most famous myths, legends and stories. I prefer a story that is a little more serious and thoughtful. Theres large numbers of people who feel the same as me, it is apparent. All the MMOs that released last year got huge initial sales, but not many subscriptions. Many realised that those games aren't that different from WoW, and that WoW still does it best overall. I thought some of last year's releases did have some improvements, for example WAR's tome of knowledge, AoC's graphics and LOTRO's story (in fact all three had better stories than WoW, not surprisingly). Some of those people went back to WoW, while others await the next MMO that can realise their dream of what an MMO should be, or what the progression from WoW should be. I believe this sentiment will only grow in the next year or two.

My prediction of the top MMO in 2012? It has to be The Old Republic. For me they have a lot of the right ingredients. For example, bringing the game world to life with full voiceover, not taking away any of the features that have traditionally made the genre great, adding a few innovations and learning from what worked for their peers. A world like Star Wars which has very wide appeal and recognition,  a developer like BioWare with their fan following from KotOR (similair to Blizzard's single player fan following pre-WoW) - amongst other games,  and the huge financial clout of Electronic Arts.

In my eyes these things add up to a greater force than what Blizzard will have in that specific year. In 2015 or whatever, when Blizzard's next MMORPG is released, things may or may not be different.

i wonder will there be an mmo in 2012 that is based soley on microtransactions, you buy level one, but level 2 etc.

thats the future i foreseen, and anyone playing wow in 2012 is just a braindead guinea pig.

Originally posted by Dana

Just to be clear, since it keeps coming up. Diablo 3 wasn't considered for this list. As it stands now, we don't qualify it as an MMO. We could be wrong, and maybe that will change, but as of this moment, it's not the way it sounds, nor how Blizzard positions it. I'd be first in line if they make it more MMO-like, but if it's anything like D2 in terms of online play, adding it to the list opens the door to every lobby based online game on the planet.

Then why is GW2 on the list? Is it going to be handled differently than GW1? If not then the only difference between D3 and GW2 will be a chat room vs a graphic chat room..

Anyone else notice how CCP is staying out of the Fantasy MMO Genre? That is smart. They already have the Sci Fi genre all to themselves thank to the failure of Tabula Rasa and now with a Horror MMO in the works it looks like they will have that genre all to themselves.. Although I dont think the game will do that well.

Aion.. Move over WAR and AOC the next big failure is on the way!

I think  Global Agenda should be on this list.

Originally posted by SlyLoK

Originally posted by Dana

Just to be clear, since it keeps coming up. Diablo 3 wasn't considered for this list. As it stands now, we don't qualify it as an MMO. We could be wrong, and maybe that will change, but as of this moment, it's not the way it sounds, nor how Blizzard positions it. I'd be first in line if they make it more MMO-like, but if it's anything like D2 in terms of online play, adding it to the list opens the door to every lobby based online game on the planet.

 

Then why is GW2 on the list? Is it going to be handled differently than GW1? If not then the only difference between D3 and GW2 will be a chat room vs a graphic chat room..

Anyone else notice how CCP is staying out of the Fantasy MMO Genre? That is smart. They already have the Sci Fi genre all to themselves thank to the failure of Tabula Rasa and now with a Horror MMO in the works it looks like they will have that genre all to themselves.. Although I dont think the game will do that well.

Aion.. Move over WAR and AOC the next big failure is on the way!

GW2 is on the list because it is going to be a MMORPG.  GW2 isn't GW.

Originally posted by SlyLoK

Then why is GW2 on the list? Is it going to be handled differently than GW1? If not then the only difference between D3 and GW2 will be a chat room vs a graphic chat room..

Anyone else notice how CCP is staying out of the Fantasy MMO Genre? That is smart. They already have the Sci Fi genre all to themselves thank to the failure of Tabula Rasa and now with a Horror MMO in the works it looks like they will have that genre all to themselves.. Although I dont think the game will do that well.

Aion.. Move over WAR and AOC the next big failure is on the way!

I hate to burst your bubble, but GW2 is set to be nothing like Guild Wars at all. And that includes a persistent world, just like most major MMORPGs. So you will run into random people outside outposts and cities and PvP zones. In fact, Guild Wars promises vast open PvP warzones, potentially unlimited level counts and more.

You'd do well to read up on one of the GW2 previews out there (here's an old one I wrote, it's still fully up-to-date given the 0.0 new info since then) to see exactly what's been announced thus far. It's not much, but what's been revealed is stunning... and shows exactly why Guild Wars 2 fully deserves to be ranked 2nd, or potentially even 1st, in this Top 10 list.

As for Aion and failure. I don't think so. Aside from the fact that it can't fail worldwide (does too well in Asia with what... 3.5 million subs now?), it also looks like the Western beta test has been received very positively thus far. And Aion does not look set to offer a horrible follow-up to a brilliant in-beta beginner's area (AoC, I look at you... and Tortage). Nor is NCSoft proclaiming it to be the be-all end-all innovative game that will one-up everything, everytime, everywhere, when it's really just one big bag of derivative fail (hello WAR).

On the contrary, what NCSoft has done thus far for Aion looks a lot like WoW pre-release. Positive sounds can be heard all around in spite of (nearly) all the unique features being dropped (although not nearly as many as WoW). It's extremely polished, content-heavy and solid. It offers a vibrant world and is accessible for newbies, but also offers a good challenge for veterans. All in all it's WoW at launch, done better: big, solid, hyped up, nothing new whatsoever, but just plain good.

And in case you hadn't noticed: plain good is what sells nowadays.

 Reason why WoW wont be top 1 2012 = blizzard would come out with their next mmo... Why didnt the writer think of this...

At first when I read this list I was kinda meh about it. Then I thought a little bit more about it and decided the final 3 are petty spot on. WoW will always remain on top I imagine, Guild Wars 2 will do reasonably well due the fact that it’s a great casual play game, it’s free after you purchase the box, its based on fantasy, has a pretty large following, and most people I know split time between GW and WoW. TOR will most likely be 3rd because of the huge following of BioWare fans, KOTOR fans, SWG fans, and fans of SW who game, and hype or word of mouth, role players heaven, and it will be casual friendly.

Withe the release of patch 3.2, which turned WoW from semi-casual to full on casual, this game has started to drop down the hill, not that it already hasn't been sliding for the past couple years anyway. Plus with blizz putting out a new completely different MMO over the next few years there will be very few players in WoW left. After Icecrown comes out in a few months by the looks of it, most of the known lore in the Warcraft universe(Up to WC3 basically) is out the window and you have to start creating more story like they did with all the books of Star Wars you see out there that happen after the ep. 6. So do i think this list is a little off??? Yes. Do i completley disagree??? eh i just think some of the games should be shifted into different positions and i also think that WoW should not be number 1 nor do i think it will STILL be the top MMO in 2012 because of the changes that are taking place in game now and the New MMO on the way(With most of Original team from WoW when it started, are on board). Most likely Blizz's New MMO will be No.1 if anything.

I also think Aion will be more popular than what most ppl think it will be. Now b4 anyone jumps on me about being an Aion fanboy trust me im not, id love to try it out, but from what i hear from ppl in beta they are really impressed and i think jsut by word of mouth the game will be a lot bigger than what this list implies, but then again you never can tell about how an MMO will work out among the players. Now on FF XIV, yeah that game will obviously be huge because a lot of ppl love the FF universe, still its just not one franchise i never enjoyed very much, i kept trying to find a FF game i liked but it is just not my style of play. But, anyway thats just my take on this list.

Originally posted by spawn12345

 Reason why WoW wont be top 1 2012 = blizzard would come out with their next mmo... Why didnt the writer think of this...

Because knowing Blizzard it is unlikely that they release the new game that fast. 2013 or 2014 is more likely. Wow took 6 years to make, this will take as long.

I too think Wow will be in top 2012 but I think it will be on the way down faster and faster. Computer games don't age that well and you can already feel that Kaplan is gone, Blizzard have no other guy like him anymore.

I also believe GW2 will run past Wow. GW was a low budget game that was made rather quick for a MMO. GW2 will be a full blown MMO with an open world and amazing graphics. That together with no monthly fees make it very hard to beat, the original GW never got close to Wow but it got a lot closer than anything else.

The only thing against GW2 is that it might be too hard fo many younger Wow fans.

The thing on the list I think will fail is star trek online. I think Cryptic have bigger chanses pulling Neverwinter nights online off. Both IPs have many fans but it is a lot easier to make a forgotten realm based game then a Star trek one. Of course NWNO might not be ready to 2012.

I agree it is possible for WOW to remain number one because for the 9-10 million new mmo gamers,it was their first game,and first games always have a lasting impression.WOW is in no way a top game on any platform,you can break down any of it's components and its a very average game,but like i said for most of its 12-13 mil its their first game.

IMO 2012 is far to distant to make any predictions,way too much can happen in that time.If a game comes long that offers competition and rewards ,i could easily see all the young kids leaving WOW for a NEW game to hold bragging competitions.Since ALL the developers have stated they are looking at microtransactions,i am guessing the top game in 2012 could very well be a F2P game,who knows maybe that game will be WOW lol.

It does not matter if a game comes out that is miles better than the rest,trying to pry 12+ million gamers from there maxed out accounts on WOW ,is a monumental task.This is what players cling to ,at least the majority do,there friends and there levels an their virtual gear,they have in those other games.

What will actually dethrone WOW is Blizzard,they will make a NEW game,and the Blizzard faithful will again blindly follow them into the game.This will divide and conquer the WOW faithful[as happened to EQ>EQ2].Once this happens,then the NEXT big game on the block will be the one to reap the rewards and cash in on those millions of players.Who knows perhaps it could be the Mcfarlane/Schilling game,i think that is about due in 2012.SO far in the distant future,i am sure SOE  has something working up their sleeve,they will by that time probably have some new MMORPG,and SOE delivers in big fashion,so if they find the right niche and the timing is right ,who knows.SOE has started a movement to shift resources and close down games,so i think they have a major plan for something new.

EVE an aged piece of work,but it has the design that may not get any competition.In Eve you can do so much with so little effort,there is things you can achieve while going for a snack,that lazy type gaming will always have a niche following.I do however expect to eventually see some developer come along and do what EVE should have done and make it a complete MMORPG with advanced features,probably not until around 2015.

Some of those other games??? lmao ,i see a few of those being cancelled or having less than 40k players,no idea on the train of thought for placing them in there.WOD?40k players,APB?? lucky to be alive in 2012,again 40k players ,IF it survives.

Any Star Wars game will have some sort of longevity solely off it's name ,nothing more,so i can see those sticking around.

FFXIV may be well placed around #4,hard to say,they are banking on a totally different approach,to MMO gaming,one i don't agreee with,but we will find out soon enough,if it has a following as FFXI did.

Final Fantasy XIV got a good spot.  Sounds about right.

 WORLD OF WARCRAFT  IN FIRST POSTITION IN 2012 LOL ! 

actually, the game is great.. but in 3 years? no.. really not.. its still going to be a nice game, but never first..

Personnaly I will plan to be playing Aion. I am enjoying it more than any other game I've played so far and that's just solo. But who knows in 3 years.

Nice to see eve on the list.

I have no doubt that game will be going strong 5 years from now..  it is just as much fun today as when I started in 2004.

The game contnues to evolve in fascinating ways, and the fact that everything important in the game is PLAYER driven means that you never know what the next year will bring.

No matter how good a game's AI is, it will never equal 20-50k people online at any given time (most of whom are trying hard to completely destroy you!).

Hats off to CCP for staying true to their original vision.

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Originally posted by Zorvan

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Originally posted by Guintu

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Originally posted by Zorvan

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Originally posted by Guintu

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Originally posted by Dana

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Originally posted by MMO_Doubter

Star Trek won't be big because it's design veers too far from the appeal of the TV shows.
SWTOR won't be big because it's going to be a massively single-player game. It will be big at first, but then people will see how limited its group gameplay is. Concentratrion on story will divide players, not unite them.
 

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You do your name justice ;) hehe
Seriously though, I am curious what games you think Jon missed on there. Clearly, there will be a top 10 games. Should be fun to hear all the opinions.

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One game he missed was Stargate Worlds. 
I do hope by 2012 there is a game that beats WoW, it got boring a long time ago.

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Trust me, he didn't miss it. It ain't happening.

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And how do you know this?  The Scifi channel is in on it so it has a good chance of happening.  I think this is the game scifi channel has been talking about thats going to happen with the show.

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How do I know this? Why don't you try keeping up with current events in the Stagate Worlds section, k? And there is no "Scifi" channel anymore. It's SyFy.

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Yeah, SyFy, what's that all about? SciFi made sense, SyFy is just how a stupid person would spell it.

"We don't want the kids to think we are a channel just for stuffy geeks who insist on being grammar nazis. Let's change our name to something hipper, something that speaks to the new generation, something that says 'Hey kids, we're stupid just like you!'"

Originally posted by xaldraxius

 

 

Yeah, SyFy, what's that all about? SciFi made sense, SyFy is just how a stupid person would spell it.

"We don't want the kids to think we are a channel just for stuffy geeks who insist on being grammar nazis. Let's change our name to something hipper, something that speaks to the new generation, something that says 'Hey kids, we're stupid just like you!'"

I'd consider that nothing more than truth in advertising, since all you are likely to see on that channel is another fine SyFy original movie like "Zombie Vampire Spiders from Outer Space IV."

Apparently there is good money in stupidity... everything is getting a whack from the "dumb down" hammer these days.

It's a shame too.. scifi used to be one of the only interesting channels left on the tube.  Oh well.