Really?~ WoW still around in 2012? I wouldn't doubt if you're right on that. Hopefully though it won't be number 1.  I do think you're right on what games are going to be around in 2012.  It's a nice list of games that will be fun to play.

Originally posted by Cypt1

I think this writeup is pretty accurate overall, with the exception of GW2, as, at this point, we have only a modicum of information about it, and I'm starting to doubt that the game will even be released by 2012 considering how slow its development progress has been (unless NCSoft is just remaining tight-lipped and plans to release a deluge of information all at once when the game nears its beta state).

In addition, it's difficult to include a subscription-free game for comparison purposes, such as GW or GW2, in a list which is solely comprised of  games with subscription-based or subscription/microransaction hybrid-based payment models.  (I say "hybrid" models since we don't know for certain what payment models some of these unreleased MMOs will utilize, with the exception of GW2.)

I get the impression - but I really don't know for sure - that they're generally just keeping quiet until Aion has time to settle in. I suspect we'll hear more this fall and next year. Guild Wars wasn't exactly the most hyped game pre-release either. They tend to take a quieter approach.

I dont think GW2 should be on the list because it has no monthly fee. This alone gives it a huge advantage over the rest because you are not counting subscriptions but just sales of boxes. What would WoW's actual number be if it was just to count all the boxes and expacs sold? 15mil? I am sure about 5 million people have come and gone from Wow that are no longer counted.

Also a real hindrence for some people is paying a monthly fee for a game. To many people they just wont do it out of principle and would prefer to play a free MMO or fps etc so this is again a hindrence on this list.

As for the list I would say Aion should be in the top 5 as well Blizzard is making some secret MMO game as well. If that releases before 2012 you can add that to the top 3.

*Shrugs* 

It's an interesting list with some nice points but by and large you could get just as accurate a list by putting the names on a dart board and throwing at them.  :) 

Honestly who knows where this will all go, though I wll agree that most likely WoW will still be up in the top ten for sheer momentum's sake.  MMO's that are even half-way successful have a nice tail on them.  :) 

Though I must admit it is nice to see CCP up there with World of Darkness AND Eve Online.  I loved Eve and it's is only one of two MMO's I've left and come back to months/years later.   Eve is still a great skill system that I have yet to see anyone else ever try to copy.  The ability to focus on what you WANT to do, instead of grinding is HUGE. 

Originally posted by Zengrok

Originally posted by gnomexxx

So much for a dynamic gaming genre.  Especially if WoW is still on top 3 years from now.

I was kind of hoping technology and other advancements (like game design) would knock that game on its ass.  I cannot see myself being a fan of the MMO genre if it hasn't changed enough in 3 years to give us something more fun than WoW. 

That's not the point though.   WoW may still be a player, or even top slot in 3 years, but that doesn't mean the industry hasn't changed and evolved. 

Think of it this way.  People will always start with WoW, and evolve into something else.  This means those other, "better" games will always be a smaller segment.  So the only game that topples WoW, will be another starter game (and probably from Blizzard) that most of us will choose not to play anyway.

I hope you're right.  But so far all I've seen is everyone trying to copy WoW.  No one really seems interested in developing the more "mature" games.

By "mature" I mean with more depth, complexity, and possibilities for your character than WoW.  I also mean other things too, like something that will challenge the newer technology in machines by then.

So is a MMO game defined by the money that is payed for in sub or maybe its.... a game ?

Is "big" counted in subs when it comes to MMOs ?

How freaking stupid can ppl get ?  

Define a MMO and .... there - work from that list....  If you define MMOs based on the fact that it has to be a subed for game.... Then really you should not consider yourself as "gamer". 

Excellent article, surprisingly impartial and more thought out than I assumed based on the title.

Originally posted by Frobner

So is a MMO game defined by the money that is payed for in sub or maybe its.... a game ?

 

Is "big" counted in subs when it comes to MMOs ?

 

How freaking stupid can ppl get ?  

 

Define a MMO and .... there - work from that list....  If you define MMOs based on the fact that it has to be a subed for game.... Then really you should not consider yourself as "gamer". 

What is this I don't even.

Overall not a bad list a few games im not familiar with. have to disagree with the coments that star trek and star wars won't be big i think they will be huge. Also have to take Aion of the list dont really see the game lasting more that a couple years if that , once the Hype dies down it won't be very big.

Originally posted by bboneheadd

What about runescape? It has and will have more subs then any of the 10 games on the list in 2012 (besides wow ofcourse)

Seems like everyone ingnores the fact that runescape is #2 most subscribed game out right now

I thought it was registered users.  Like all F2P games, the number of actual subscribers is substantially less than the number of registered users.

The guy who wrote this list must be on crack or something.

I agree with your pick of Blizzard being #1 but I have a feeling it may be Starcraft Online not World of Warcraft.   They may hold off for another year but I just have a feeling we will see it towards the end of 2012 and it will easily be #1 whenever it releases.

I think WoW is just going to be too old, and with too many barriers to entry by 2012 to remain number 1.  It's already moved into it's cash-cow phase and will probably be declining in a year.  That said, a declining WoW may be number 1, but the Bioware game has everything going for it that WoW did, and then some.  It's going to be 6 years newer, and EA has got the budget to hire KISS members to make their TV spots for it. 

It was probably naieve to leave Copernicus from the list.

Originally posted by Nicoo

D2 was kinda an MMORPG or am I totaly wrong? Battlenet etc.

And Blizz knows the deal MMORPGS sells, so D3 will be a MMORPG. Or well it already is.

No D2 was NOT an MMORPG. D3 will NOT be an MMORPG or they would have already marketed it as such. So no, Diablo 3 has no business being on this list.

Well overall I agree with the list. I don't think WoW will be #1 by then. I think the rest of the player base will start to see just how stale the gameplay is by then. Or at least I have faith in the player base to see through the gameplay by then at least. I do think if Blizzards new MMO releases by then that IT will be number 1 though.

And I wouldn't rank GW2 up that high either. Too hard to gauge the actual player base in that game. A lot of people were like me with the first Guild Wars...Bought it, played it a little bit, got bored and uninstalled.

OK, the statement made below is totally not correct. Tabula Rasa ? NCSofts FlagShip Title ?

If Anything id say Lineage 2 is NCSofts flagship title. & its still going strong.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This first major launch since the cancellation of the company’s previous flagship title, Tabula Rasa

Jon's list is good but I disagree with it slightly.The  Top 4  games will be exactly as Jon says, I think. BUT...

1: There aren't enough Sci-Fi fans to put 3  outer space MMORPG's in the top 10 list in 2012:) * Eve is very worthy of being in that list- it's fans rabid-ly love it LOL! 

2. LoTRO. Why would it nose dive in 2102 ? It's been in the top games list since it launched and I don't see any games on that list that would pull the LoTRO fans away in droves. Plus, it's fans are as rabidly devoted as Eve's:)

Good list though! It will be in that order I bet: WoW, GW2, SWG, FF2 but I would put LoTRO at 5. I can't prove it because Turbine doesn't release their numbers but it's subs seem to remain strangely constant over the last 3 years. Lotsa new games have come out from 2007 till now and LoTRO seems immune.

Originally posted by Lydon

I agree. Guild Wars 2 is going to come in and catch people by surprise.

The only thing on the list I don't agree with is Aion...I think it'll be slightly higher up the list. If not near the top.

It is NCSoft, all Aion will be by then is a huge bot farm.  Where have you been?

Star Wars won't launch in 2010 period.  They will be lucky to make 2011.  Blizzard might surprise us too with their new MMO, 3 years is a long time.

Star Trek Online ABOVE AION ?

Really?

I mean, really?

Really really?

Did you accept a bribe?

No, really, did you?

Originally posted by logangregor

 

Star Trek Online ABOVE AION ?

Really?

 

I mean, really?

Really really?

Did you accept a bribe?

No, really, did you?

 

Yep Really start trek has been around forever. Aion is pretty much a pebble in comparison to star trek

As much as I hate to admit it, this is a pretty spot on list. I hate seeing WoW on top though. LOL.

Originally posted by Dana

Originally posted by Cypt1

I think this writeup is pretty accurate overall, with the exception of GW2, as, at this point, we have only a modicum of information about it, and I'm starting to doubt that the game will even be released by 2012 considering how slow its development progress has been (unless NCSoft is just remaining tight-lipped and plans to release a deluge of information all at once when the game nears its beta state).

In addition, it's difficult to include a subscription-free game for comparison purposes, such as GW or GW2, in a list which is solely comprised of  games with subscription-based or subscription/microransaction hybrid-based payment models.  (I say "hybrid" models since we don't know for certain what payment models some of these unreleased MMOs will utilize, with the exception of GW2.)

 

I get the impression - but I really don't know for sure - that they're generally just keeping quiet until Aion has time to settle in. I suspect we'll hear more this fall and next year. Guild Wars wasn't exactly the most hyped game pre-release either. They tend to take a quieter approach.

I'm definitely hoping that this is the case -- I've been severely disappointed by the lack of information about GW2, but due to previous experience, I'm remaining incredulous until an official statement has been made. (I'd rather not have to face yet another huge letdown when it comes to a release date, as I'm naturally a bit impatient, unfortunately.)

EDIT:

To some of the posters above me, I'd love to chime in and agree that Star Trek should be placed above Aion, but that would be a totally biased statement since I'm a huge fan of both Star Trek and Star Wars (yes, it IS possible to like both, contrary to popular belief), and so anything I say about the two upcoming MMOs based on those franchises will be, admittedly, unadulterated "fanboyism."

Originally posted by dlunas

 

Last I heard, that game was basically dead in the water....to my great sadness.  It looked so good.

Same. I was really looking forward to SGW, but man, it's dead. Not Daniel Jackson 'dead' either.

Interesting list, Jon. The only ones of your list that I'll be trying/maintain a subscription to are World of Darkness and Star Trek Online. My EvE subscription is about to be canceled and replaced by Fallen Earth. I'm also looking forward to Copernicus as well. In the end, I could see myself having subscriptions to those 4 in 3 years (FE, WoD, Copernicus and STO) though I may not carry the STO sub if Cryptic goes the RMT route with it as they did with Champions.

"The original Guild Wars franchise made a name for itself by providing a product that was designed and marketed differently from their competition. They proved that the subscription wasn’t the only possible avenue for an MMORPG and in doing so gained a remarkable following."

If MMORPG.com wants to be taken seriously, they should not make statements like that.  Every company can release a super instanced game like GW and not charge a fee.

GW is not an mmo, even Arenanet said that themselves.  If GW is on list of MMO's why dont you put Diablo2  on the list as well. GW has 3d chat room, diablo2 does not.

Why dont you guys just put single player RPG's that have multiplayer capability on this site as well.

stop calling apples oranges, : )

this was no rant, flame or anything of that sort, but I've seen so many comments by MMORPG.com staff made towards GW being an mmo its sad.

Originally posted by Lydon

I agree. Guild Wars 2 is going to come in and catch people by surprise.

The only thing on the list I don't agree with is Aion...I think it'll be slightly higher up the list. If not near the top.

I agree 2 Guild Wars has a massive following and GW2 will surprise a lot of people why?

Well let's see Anet and NCsoft have had how many years to perfect this license, hmm 5-6 years were talking about some

serious tweaking here guys, lots lots of feedback from  people from all over the world.

I wouldn't be surprised if it climbs to #1....one things for sure, it's gonna make ALOT of money.

Guild Wars franchise has got it all.

Awesome PVE

Diverse PVP

Lots of Armor

Huge areas and dungeons

persistent world areas

like some posters have said many leagues...you can go into GuilD Wars any

time of day and spectate Guild vs GUild Vs Guild all DAY and it's intense, hell

you could check it out right now.

Not to mention if GW looks as good as it does how much more beautiful can

GW2 look, totally amazing I bet.

#2 for Guild Wars is about right and by then I don't think WOW can compete with it

maybe FF can, my 2 pennies..