CCP deploying a horror mmorpg...!? I'm in! I belive anything that CCP makes is purely genuis. Eve-online game mechanics seem intense, so World of Darkness has to be good! I'll be sure to watch out for this game!

Originally posted by Arthineas

Can't believe you guys left out Copernicus by Curt Schilling's 38 Studios.  With guys like RA Salvatore(one of the best fantasy writers around) and Todd Mcfarlane(great artist), along with all the other industry pros they have been hiring, its bound to be great.

That hasn't been in development very long has it?  Meaning 2012 release is not likely.

 Good game or not, WoW dwarfs everything else right now so it's not hard to guess it'll still be very strong in 2-3 years.  Especially since just about every game released fails at launch.  I also believe that the only thing to beat WoW will be Blizzards next MMO.  

I agree with Eve being on the list, it definitely has plenty of untapped potential, which is why I'm very excited to see how World of Darkness turns out.  Overall, the top 10 list is a pretty good prediction.

So much for a dynamic gaming genre.  Especially if WoW is still on top 3 years from now.

I was kind of hoping technology and other advancements (like game design) would knock that game on its ass.  I cannot see myself being a fan of the MMO genre if it hasn't changed enough in 3 years to give us something more fun than WoW. 

Originally posted by Guintu

Originally posted by Dana

Originally posted by MMO_Doubter

Star Trek won't be big because it's design veers too far from the appeal of the TV shows.

SWTOR won't be big because it's going to be a massively single-player game. It will be big at first, but then people will see how limited its group gameplay is. Concentratrion on story will divide players, not unite them.

 

You do your name justice ;) hehe

Seriously though, I am curious what games you think Jon missed on there. Clearly, there will be a top 10 games. Should be fun to hear all the opinions.

 

One game he missed was Stargate Worlds. 

I do hope by 2012 there is a game that beats WoW, it got boring a long time ago.

Last I heard, that game was basically dead in the water....to my great sadness.  It looked so good.

Originally posted by Barafor

Did you even consider Lotro? The games been making gold for the past 3 years, double its life span and i would be amazed what they will create. The only reason it isn't as popular if not more than WoW is becuase WoW is the only MMO out there thats been doing major comercial campaigns and yet sadly, i have never even seen a quick add for lotro on a website.

Hate to be the one to say it but lotro is over-rated, i played it for almost two years due to a great kinship. If it wasn't Middle Earth I don't lotro would have near the following it does..just my opition of course.

Originally posted by Xyfire1

The downfall of WoW:

 

1. Aion will be out shortly and it will deal a semi-significant blow to WoW, the Hardcore players that have been playing for years are looking for something new at this point, even if the story and lore of WoW is incredible.

2. Star Wars: The Old Republic - I think it's safe to say that this game will be out in 2010. I know that this game will rock the WoW subscription numbers, there is so much fanbase and hype it is unmatchable, though, expected in a 35(ish)-year-old saga. If this doesn't kill WoW, it will severely cripple it. In fact, it may even hurt Aion in the process, lol.

3. Guild Wars 2 - If not done already, GW2 will deal the final blow to WoW. Enough said.

Therefore, WoW will be done by 2013.

This is not to say that other games won't contribute to the downfall of the MMO god.

These are my opinion's about what I think the future of MMO's holds, no need for fanboys to flame me. But, I suppose this is the wrong forum to ask of you that. :D lol

I agree. I think WoW will see a fairly big decrease in subs in about a month (Aion release) and from then on will only get worse once more new mmos come out. WoWs a great game but I think the majority of the fan base is ready to move on to greener pastures.

Originally posted by dRedawg

CCP deploying a horror mmorpg...!? I'm in! I belive anything that CCP makes is purely genuis. Eve-online game mechanics seem intense, so World of Darkness has to be good! I'll be sure to watch out for this game!

I know!  I'm looking forward to watching what they'll do with it.  Hopefully it will be a little more engaging, since it will be a different kind of game, but I hope they keep the sandbox thing they do.

Originally posted by gnomexxx

So much for a dynamic gaming genre.  Especially if WoW is still on top 3 years from now.

I was kind of hoping technology and other advancements (like game design) would knock that game on its ass.  I cannot see myself being a fan of the MMO genre if it hasn't changed enough in 3 years to give us something more fun than WoW. 

That's not the point though.   WoW may still be a player, or even top slot in 3 years, but that doesn't mean the industry hasn't changed and evolved. 

Think of it this way.  People will always start with WoW, and evolve into something else.  This means those other, "better" games will always be a smaller segment.  So the only game that topples WoW, will be another starter game (and probably from Blizzard) that most of us will choose not to play anyway.

I think it also would have been helpful if Jon had put what he considers the top 10 MMOs presently along-side his predictions for 2012.

I personally don't think the list will change as much as what Jon does. History has shown that very few of the new MMOs stay in the top 10 for very long. I guess a lot depends on when you think some of the new MMOs will launch. Those that launch at the end of 2011 might still be in the top 10 by early to mid 2012. Those that launch early 2012 will probably be there as well.

Looking at AoC and WAR as examples... they quickly shot into the top 10... but they just as quickly lost a high percentage of their population. I anticipate the same from MMOs for the foreseeable future. There might be 1 or 2 exceptions... but by and large MMOs are released too early so we can probably expect more of the same in that regard.

Anyway, all that to say...

For the anal-retentive (like myself) I like to see it in a table. So, I have made a quick table of what is currently the 1-10 MMOs (going by number of subs or money generated), what Jon's picks are for 2012, and what my picks for 2012 are.

And yes, just like my picks for 2012 the order of the present MMOs is opinion. If someone can point me to concrete proof of numbers that suggest otherwise I am open to editing the order.  I have included a few links that I used to base my order on.

One last note... I am only considering MMOs for present based on subscriptions and/or money generated.  They also need to be listed on the Game List here at mmorpg.com. If it's not listed... it's not on the list below.

Anyway... we'll see how it goes.  I hope I am wrong about the new up and coming MMOs, but past experiences show that there aren't very many "winners". 

Some of the links that I've found from which I based my current Top 10 list on:

gigaom.com/2009/02/01/top-10-money-making-mmos-2008/

www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php

www.gossipgamers.com/top-10-most-popular-mmorpgs-of-2008/

http://www.the-top-tens.com/lists/top-ten-mmorpg-games.asp

www.secondlifeupdate.com/uncategorized/top-9-online-virtual-3d-worlds/

www.associatedcontent.com/article/838971/top_10_mmorpgs.html

Here is my top ten for 2012, my list is based on personal opinion of market trends.

10. Black Prophecy
like the outer fringes of space so does this entry arrive on my list, it's nice to add in a personal dark horse and I believe this is it, why? I think this will pick up the hard core space sim fans due to its pvp centric outlook and gritty realistc looking graphics. It will give EvE players the ability to pilot thier ships and may well knock a big hole in its player base. Like jumpgate evolution it has a point of difference in the space combat - however probably be more niche due to its currently promoted pvp style.

9. Star Wars: The Old Republic
Just because its star wars and just because its bioware, people are sure to play this game. The franchise just will not die out, even if this game is borderline terrible it will be played, just not as high up the list as some might think. Current gameplay dev trailers make it look like like a battlefield heroes with light sabres so it might not be as well received as we all expect.

8. Jumpgate Evolution
Space Opera MMO - not since Earth and Beyond have we had a true space MMO that requires you to pilot your ship - EvE is very successful as sandbox but emulates space combat using a standard MMO based lock on and click buttons type system. Games in 2012 more so than ever will need a point of difference. NetDevil is the grandfather of space MMO's with the original jumpgate and should not be underrated.

7. Fallen Earth (or other sandbox)
It seems the market likes to have a sandbox game there for the more hardcore player, Fallen Earth has the mechanics of point and shoot of the 'FPS' style game play and requires a bit more skill than auto-attack akin to all other MMO's.

6. Guild Wars 2
With NCSoft charging ahead in the MMO market with Aion I'm sure we will see GW2 by 2012

5. Final Fantasy XIV
Not a personal favourite, however the share amount of fans this franchise has will surely make it a success unless something goes horribly wrong.

4. World Of Warcraft
Will certainly be still around but like everquest before it the 4-5 year honeymoon period will be well over and consumers will move on to a more sophisticated classier product - the only saviour maybe it's ability to run on the console market as it is a very low end requirement game, if it did get ported that would be a definite sign of the end

3. Runes Of Magic
ROM is basically is WoW with a dual class system, the fact that it's free, has not been out a year and has over two million players all ready.
 

2. Aion
This game has big mass market appeal and has been very successful in the asian markets, I have no doubt this will be a major player in the NA market and will top World of Warcraft if WoW continues its current trends and does not upgrade itself.
 

1. Diablo 3
Blizzard will be king yet again, while the Diablo series is not considered an MMORPG by most, I however do - simply put lots of players online match making and role playing - it may not have the persistent world mechanics of others but hey look at guild wars and diablo 2 before it whether you have a lobby system or a pretty township with a horse or two, still just only a glorified interface for like minded players to get together. Mass market appeal, more than likely cross platformed onto the console market (Xbox 720? PS5?)

I'll check back in 3 years ;-)

A good list all in all. I agree with most of it. The people that don't think SW:ToR or STO will be big are delusional at best. Those 2 games will succeed on their IPs and publisher's names alone. Kotor was a huge success and had absolutely no direct ties to the movies so that excuse doesn't really hold water. STO will have massive amounts of content, some even procedurally generated so it will be massive with no chance of running out of things to do. Add to that the episodic mission content and you have a mini Star Trek episode of sorts waiting for you every time you log in. Also what the Author of this article seemed to miss is that STO will be released on both the PC and Xbox 360. It may just be that run away console MMO hit that he's expecting.

SW:ToR and STO will both be major successes regardless of what a few nay-sayers here may think. Whether either one will be #1 remains to be seen and is a long shot at best but neither game will be a failure.

Bren

Originally posted by xzyax

 

#10

LoTRO

LoTRO

 

Total loss of credibility when I read this. This game will maybe be in the top 1,000, but not even top 50...

It will go the way of EQ2 come Aion release, and then downward as Final Fantasy comes out.

What's sad is there just seems to be WoW, and then everything else just piddles along. EVE seems to be the exception.

We know there are tons and tons of people looking to get into a new great MMO, because of the initial success of AoC and WAR. Here's hoping TOR doesn't suck. I'm also looking forward to World of Darkness.

Nice Job. I think this was a well thought out list.

However. I think that Aion will be higher probably around #4. Considering it is already very popular in Asia/Korea and coming to NA  soon. 

If you compare the upcoming Aion NA launch to what we have been used to in the past two years from games like WAR and AOC, it should be a much more polished launch and retain more subsribers that quit a game quickly due to bugs and glitches.

Everything else on the list seems spot on. I can't really argue with WoW being number 1 although I would like to see a new champion.

The main contender if WoW does not take the top spot would be SWTOR or Final Fantasy. Both I have been watching very closely and trust the companies working on them.

(my two cents)

I definitely see WoW as still reigning supreme for another few years.  Even if they drop the number of players and subscriptions, its still gonna take something pretty special to knock it off the top.

I would assume at this point, SWTOR will be number 2 because of the hype, and I highly doubt they'll make a massively single player mmo, just doesn't make sense.  Too much money is going into development.  That, however, is also a double edged sword.  If TOR fails to deliver, it'll be lambasted even more than Conan.  Bioware, do yourself a favor and make the game right and release when ready, not when shareholders say you need to.

Guild Wars, never played, thus can't really comment.

What I'd love to see is some form of Shadowrun/Fallout MMO.  A kind of 50-100 years down the road using Earth as the location and as thus you can use London, Rome, Paris, New York and Washington DC as backdrops and not only make the cities, but do some reinvention of them, combine that with magic and tech (meaning armor, weapons, rides, etc..) and I think that would have an insanely high potential market.

Imagine a guild raid on the White House or Buckingham Palace or the Vatican.  A mission to steal Michaelangelo's David, or to find out who stole it, etc...  That kind of world would be cool, recognizable and fun.

Star Trek on TV was popular I believe for two reasons.

1 - novel situations with a strong moral basis for the characters to contend with, not unlike Twilight Zone, though

usually not as sharply focused.

2 - something Twilight Zone did not have, namely, persistent main characters who had sufficiently interesting interactions with each other that sometimes they could carry a weak plot.

The setting to me was secondary, or less.

It seems to me that an MMO will have to focus mostly on setting --- I don't know how one would try to tackle the two points mentioned above.   Compare Lotro.   The heart of the Lotro genre is a battle against obstacles, not solving novel situations or character interaction.   So Lotro, I think, was more doable.

My summary:  STO might be a good game.  But it won't be because it follows the TV program, because the things the game can do will reflect the less interesting parts of the TV show.

I think Aion will personally blow mmo's off the market. Its going to be better than WoW itself, Lets be realistic here, Anything can cahnge in the next 3 years But as for now since Aion is getting ready for release, I think it will beat all the others... For now.

Originally posted by frozen7714

I think Aion will personally blow mmo's off the market. Its going to be better than WoW itself, Lets be realistic here, Anything can cahnge in the next 3 years But as for now since Aion is getting ready for release, I think it will beat all the others... For now.

I couldn't disagree with you more, but I'm speculating and your speculating.  We will see in 6 months.

 All Points Bulletin?

No.