Jon breaks out his crystal ball and peers three years down the road. Which 10 games will dominate the market then?

This week, I dug deep into the old closet to pull out my trusty crystal ball. Gazing deep into its smoky depths, I asked a simple question: What MMOs will round out the Top 10 three years from now? Being a cantankerous old coot of a crystal ball, it told me that I needed to be more specific. Was it to base the list on subscriber numbers? Overall profitability? Random lottery? In the end we decided to look for a Top 10 list that took many factors into account, with subscribers, profitability, critical acclaim and fan support topping the list.

When I was putting this list together, there were a number of games that cropped up as possibilities that, for whatever reasons, I decided not to include in my top ten. The next Blizzard MMO, for example is left off because there’s a good chance it won’t yet have launched. It’s tough enough to define the Top 10 Games of 2009, let alone three years from now. Many quality titles didn’t make the list, but were kept firmly in mind. They include: The Secret World, The Agency, Copernicus, Lord of the Rings Online, Global Agenda and Fallen Earth.

Read more here.

FFXIV will reign supreme!

Good write up with the knowledge we have.  You know I have new faith in Ragnar working on Secret World despite it being with Funcom.  I would  swap APB for Secret World because I don't see APB having that much depth.  I feel like it will be a really fun arcade like MMORPG for a few months, but I don't see it lasting through 2012. 

I love seeing World of Darkness in there.

It is hard to say with so many rumored games stirring around like Elder Scrolls Online, Blizzard's next MMO, and the trio of games coming from Trion (Heroes of Telara, a Scifi MMo, and a MMORTS). I would probably swap in Heroes of Telara for your Superhero game category.

Overall a really good list. 

Is Guild Wars  ranked high only because its free and the people who play it never paid for a subscription pay game?   Personally, I installed it, got bored to death, Uninstalled it.  Maybe its changed,  has it?

Originally posted by Shreddi

Is Guild Wars  ranked high only because its free and the people who play it never paid for a subscription pay game?   Personally, I installed it, got bored to death, Uninstalled it.  Maybe its changed,  has it?

Well Guild Wars 2 supposedly has quite a few changes from the original such as a more persistant world outside of cities.  Many, many people play it and there are many competitive leagues.  It is one of the top non FPS PvP games.  It has great Co-op and really intense combat combined with skill collection/unlocking and millions of builds.  It is a very solid game.  It doesn't really feel like an MMO though which they seem to be addressing in Guild Wars 2.

I agree. Guild Wars 2 is going to come in and catch people by surprise.

The only thing on the list I don't agree with is Aion...I think it'll be slightly higher up the list. If not near the top.

World of Warcraft FTW!

Did you guys hear about the new expansion for it?

The expansion is called World of Warcraft: Cataclysm

err something like that not sure.

Supposed to have some new races.. Goblin for Horde and..something else for Alliance I forgot what.

Star Trek won't be big because it's design veers too far from the appeal of the TV shows.

SWTOR won't be big because it's going to be a massively single-player game. It will be big at first, but then people will see how limited its group gameplay is. Concentratrion on story will divide players, not unite them.

Originally posted by dknight784

World of Warcraft FTW!

 

Did you guys hear about the new expansion for it?

The expansion is called World of Warcraft: Cataclysm

err something like that not sure.

 

Supposed to have some new races.. Goblin for Horde and..something else for Alliance I forgot what.

The Worgen.

There is already speculation that the two new races will be neutral - you chooose your side when creating your character (or at the end of a DK-like initial quest line.). It's just speculation, though.'

New races mean little to me. A new class and some new mechanics would be interesting.

Originally posted by MMO_Doubter

Star Trek won't be big because it's design veers too far from the appeal of the TV shows.

SWTOR won't be big because it's going to be a massively single-player game. It will be big at first, but then people will see how limited its group gameplay is. Concentratrion on story will divide players, not unite them.

 

You do your name justice ;) hehe

Seriously though, I am curious what games you think Jon missed on there. Clearly, there will be a top 10 games. Should be fun to hear all the opinions.

Sounds like a realitstic and logical prediction.

Originally posted by Dana

Originally posted by MMO_Doubter

Star Trek won't be big because it's design veers too far from the appeal of the TV shows.

SWTOR won't be big because it's going to be a massively single-player game. It will be big at first, but then people will see how limited its group gameplay is. Concentratrion on story will divide players, not unite them.

 

You do your name justice ;) hehe

Seriously though, I am curious what games you think Jon missed on there. Clearly, there will be a top 10 games. Should be fun to hear all the opinions.

Quite possible more than one supers game will be in the top ten, and I'm hoping and praying for a survival horror MMO to emerge. That would be sweet. Something along the lines of Hellgate:London, but without the suck.

Since I'm blue-skying here, I'll add that I would really like to see an MMO using the world and characters of Miyazaki's anime films. Some clever and original designs and art, and the films are quite popular. Can't see anything but standard S&S gameplay though. Perhaps steampunk, though I think that is a very limited appeal.

Originally posted by MMO_Doubter

Originally posted by Dana

Originally posted by MMO_Doubter

Star Trek won't be big because it's design veers too far from the appeal of the TV shows.

SWTOR won't be big because it's going to be a massively single-player game. It will be big at first, but then people will see how limited its group gameplay is. Concentratrion on story will divide players, not unite them.

 

You do your name justice ;) hehe

Seriously though, I am curious what games you think Jon missed on there. Clearly, there will be a top 10 games. Should be fun to hear all the opinions.

Quite possible more than one supers game will be in the top ten, and I'm hoping and praying for a survival horror MMO to emerge. That would be sweet. Something along the lines of Hellgate:London, but without the suck.

I cannot agree with you more on survival horror, but the trick to a three year list is you really can only consider games we already know to exist. With the exception of Blizzard, ZeniMax and 38 Studios, there likely isn't a AAA unannounced game out there that we can honestly expect to have any chance of coming out by 2012.

That likely means no survival horror.

That said, I would love one too. I feel a "why not" coming on ;)

Originally posted by dknight784

World of Warcraft FTW!

 

Did you guys hear about the new expansion for it?

The expansion is called World of Warcraft: Cataclysm

err something like that not sure.

 

Supposed to have some new races.. Goblin for Horde and..something else for Alliance I forgot what.

Well, Blizzcon starts in 10 days so we all just have to wait and see what Blizzard have in store for us... :)

Anyway, on topic with some input. I play WoW and I've become a bit fed up with the game lately (mostly due to it interfering with work and a personal life and if I can't get the best stuff in the game why play?) I can't see myself quitting. I might take breaks more often in the future but I probably will always be back when new major patches are released and especially when new expansions are released. I love the universe and the game itself and I wan't to at least experience it as much as I can. I'm sure my feelings are shared with quite a lot of people.... lots will always come back, even only for a couple of months, every expansion. Can't see this slow down in three years. So yeah, the game will probably still be the largest in 2012.

The fact that Blade and Soul isnt on the list makes the writer retarded. And they need to think of three years time. What new amazing next gen mmo's can come out in 3 years? How about Diablo 3 too?

Sorry but too close minded on what MMO's will be the top because three years anything can change and alot will. WoW might be top 10 but not top 3. Also why dont we put Maplestory in their? it has more global players then WoW currently if we are going based off numbers and not quality of the game.

Never post on here ever but had to when I read this.

*EDIT*

I think star wars will flop IMO.

FFXIV will be the game the #1 game for me anyway... though the list is pretty realistic although I think Aion might be a little higher but we'll see. I'm def excited for Guild Wars 2 and FFXIV... but since GW2 will be free montly and is suppose to have a more MMO feel ect, it could surpass WoW... but I'm not one of those people that is always looking for something to knock WoW out of it's place.

apb, star trek or starwars in 2012? hardly.. wow ,ff,aion and eve will be there in massive amount// but im not so sure for those 3

Originally posted by fixif

apb, star trek or starwars in 2012? hardly.. wow ,ff,aion and eve will be there in massive amount// but im not so sure for those 3

I agree those games arent persistent. Its like a fighter game or a single player game after uve beaten it like 3 times already. Gets old very fast.

Even though we have not heard anything about them. The new Blizzard MMO and the Zenimax MMO will be number 1 and 2 on that list, almost undoubtedly. They'll be the King and Queen of the MMO market in a few years.

Originally posted by Dana

Originally posted by MMO_Doubter

Originally posted by Dana

Originally posted by MMO_Doubter

Star Trek won't be big because it's design veers too far from the appeal of the TV shows.

SWTOR won't be big because it's going to be a massively single-player game. It will be big at first, but then people will see how limited its group gameplay is. Concentratrion on story will divide players, not unite them.

 

You do your name justice ;) hehe

Seriously though, I am curious what games you think Jon missed on there. Clearly, there will be a top 10 games. Should be fun to hear all the opinions.

Quite possible more than one supers game will be in the top ten, and I'm hoping and praying for a survival horror MMO to emerge. That would be sweet. Something along the lines of Hellgate:London, but without the suck.

 

I cannot agree with you more on survival horror, but the trick to a three year list is you really can only consider games we already know to exist. With the exception of Blizzard, ZeniMax and 38 Studios, there likely isn't a AAA unannounced game out there that we can honestly expect to have any chance of coming out by 2012.

That's three chances, then. I'm predicting that Blizzard's game will be supers, as I only see three BIG genres for MMOs - S&S, SciFI, and Supers. I doubt they would do another S&S while WoW is still popular. They said it would be a new IP, so that leaves Starcraft out, and why do SF without using SC? That leaves Supers, but it might be a crowded market by then.

Fingers crossed for 'World of Horrors'. Could be awesome.

Not a bad list, but with so many mmo projects poping up and in the shadows its hard to tell. Blizzards next MMO, Heroes of Telara, a possible Elder Scrolls MMO, and the super secret game 38 Studios is working on to name a few are all contenders as well. Will be an interesting next 5 years for MMO's .

Not only is their no blade and soul on this list or diablo 3.

What about Global Agenda? Just some food for though but the writer doesnt know anything about knew games coming out obviously.

Man no love for Heroes of Telara?  Trion seems to know what they are doing.  It could be a sleeper.

Originally posted by fixif

apb, star trek or starwars in 2012? hardly.. wow ,ff,aion and eve will be there in massive amount// but im not so sure for those 3

I think you seriously underestimate the amount of people who Sci-Fi fans wanting a good mmo (besides EVE).

Imo for starters i think Aion should be higher. Wow will ofc be up there agreed and even if it starts to die, they said they making a new mmo (blizzard) so they'll be up there either way. Guild wars didn't have enough customization hardly any armour and no way in game to sell anything to players, all had to be done on a fan website. Other than the game breaking problems (for me and am guessing others) the pvp and pve was awesome, but shouldn't be top 5.

Originally posted by jmd10222

Originally posted by fixif

apb, star trek or starwars in 2012? hardly.. wow ,ff,aion and eve will be there in massive amount// but im not so sure for those 3

 

I think you seriously underestimate the amount of people who Sci-Fi fans wanting a good mmo (besides EVE).

Well, I'm a huge SF fan. Been reading SF since I was about 10. I loved the original Star Trek and Star Wars, but those two games both look to be the wrong way of covering the IP. I don't even think Trek would make a good MMO (it would have to force grouping like no other game ever has), and Star Wars needs the draw of the original Trilogy's characters and locations to be HUGE. Star Wars isn't actually SF, it's more a mix of magic and tech.

There are some VERY good settings for SF MMOs- like Larry Niven's 'Known Universe' setting. It would be pretty cool to explore 'Ringworld' wouldn't it? Or Arther Clarke's Rama?