Originally posted by Zorndorf

In contrast to Aion ... this game HAS a well known western Lore.

This game HAS another theme than the 134th version of a Fantasy world.

So it will ONLY "fail" if the following happens in game:

"Dear Jedi (young paladin), go get me some 10 pigs in space (boars) with this shiny light sabre (Holy mace) on that Red Planet (Outland)."

If this happens it will fail. If they can avoid that, they will hit a home run.

Definition of fail = not achieving 1 million western subscriptions (as that number was already broken 4 years ago) and no,  0.5 million is not good enough as that was already broken 10 years ago in mmorpg land.

The only way to go is a space driven game with seperate servers for its planet systems (allowing at least 10 clustered servers and (finally ) 100's of thousands players simultaniously with INNOVATIVE new mechanics.

---> We will see who will come up with these kind of new  mmorpg's.

 

well said. good point!
 

Originally posted by Mazin

 

Ok  you obviously have your blinders on.  Am i predicting this game will be the "WOW killa"?  Hell no! 

The only thing I'm saying is that great companies make great games.  Blizzard made great games before WOW and made their only MMORPG a great game(a lot of you hate it, I do now too, but it was still a great game and kept my interest for years).

Bioware makes great games and this will be a great MMORPG, it may not have the numbers of WOW, it may not have a great end game I don't know, but I do know the journey to the end will be an enjoyable experience and I will have a blast playing this game for a few months.  

Anything longer than a few months is gravy.

No. You don't know anything. You hope. And until the game is launched that's all you can do.

Why do I make this point? Because I remember all the people like you who told us that they knew Dark & Light was going to be great - and AoC - and Warhammer - and Darkfall...

Originally posted by zymurgeist

Not only is it unlikely to fail War and AoC didn't fail either. They may not have lived up to your expectations but they made, and are still making, money.  So your premise has failed.

No, they failed.  Mythic advertised Warhammer as a potential wow-killer.  This wasn't meant to be a niche game.  This was meant to take down Blizzard's titan.  It failed miserably.  AoC was meant to be a game that drew all of the people wanting pvp in.  They had one of the worst launches in the history of gaming, and are basically on life support right now.

I don't see this game failing though.  Bioware has done enough with things.

Originally posted by hubertgrove

Originally posted by Mazin

 

Ok  you obviously have your blinders on.  Am i predicting this game will be the "WOW killa"?  Hell no! 

The only thing I'm saying is that great companies make great games.  Blizzard made great games before WOW and made their only MMORPG a great game(a lot of you hate it, I do now too, but it was still a great game and kept my interest for years).

Bioware makes great games and this will be a great MMORPG, it may not have the numbers of WOW, it may not have a great end game I don't know, but I do know the journey to the end will be an enjoyable experience and I will have a blast playing this game for a few months.  

Anything longer than a few months is gravy.

 

No. You don't know anything. You hope. And until the game is launched that's all you can do.

Why do I make this point? Because I remember all the people like you who told us that they knew Dark & Light was going to be great - and AoC - and Warhammer - and Darkfall...

No name studio, Funcom, Mythic, No name studio.  I never thought they would be worth a damn.  Bioware / Blizzard.  I will go out on the limb here and predict Blizzards next MMO will be great too.

Originally posted by Mazin

Originally posted by hubertgrove

 

No. You don't know anything. You hope. And until the game is launched that's all you can do.

Why do I make this point? Because I remember all the people like you who told us that they knew Dark & Light was going to be great - and AoC - and Warhammer - and Darkfall...

No name studio, Funcom, Mythic, No name studio.  I never thought they would be worth a damn.  Bioware / Blizzard.  I will go out on the limb here and predict Blizzards next MMO will be great too.

With respect, I don't think you understand what going 'out on a limb' means.

I've said it before, there are only 2 companies out there that has produced hits for years, pratically every game they produce is a hit, those 2 companies are Blizzard ( starcraft, warcraft, diablo) and Bioware  ( Baldur's gate, Kotor, Mass Effect Neverwinter nights).  Now, the most succesful IP out there is SW, (I know, the new movies where somewhat disapointing but still a success), now combine the two and the odds are that it will be a really good game.

Lets stop with the hate and wait to see how the game developes, I am not saying it will be a success or a failure, if I had to bet on it, I would put my money with it being good, but in the end is a gamble.

Originally posted by Baltus

I've said it before, there are only 2 companies out there that has produced hits for years, pratically every game they produce is a hit, those 2 companies are Blizzard ( starcraft, warcraft, diablo) and Bioware  ( Baldur's gate, Kotor, Mass Effect Neverwinter nights).  Now, the most succesful IP out there is SW, (I know, the new movies where somewhat disapointing but still a success), now combine the two and the odds are that it will be a really good game.

 

Lets stop with the hate and wait to see how the game developes, I am not saying it will be a success or a failure, if I had to bet on it, I would put my money with it being good, but in the end is a gamble.

 

 

www.shacknews.com/featuredarticle.x

One of the biggest resources that Bioware has that many MMO companies seem to lack, is creativity.  Not just in the mechanisms and code, but actual story telling.  They are great at making their games feel epic and meaningful.  Something I find distinctly lacking in every MMO I've played.  None of my characters have ever felt vested in their virtual world.  Their decisions rarely, if ever, changed their story or progression.  This will not be the case in SWTOR.

To be honest, I'm psyched about Star Wars: The Old Republic. I really hope it does well. I am just doing some early speculation to see if endgame was a factor in success and suppose it isn't.

So, in that case, this game will do well. The trailer has shown that this game not only has the funding, the dedication, and the skills to pull off one of the best MMORPGs in history.

Originally posted by Guillermo197

The only reason it might fail on is that the game will be TOO solo driven. No crafting. No market place. And the very strong rumor of a micro transaction based system.

If the above is to become true and real. Then yes this game will not last long.

Cheers

That would really suck. I would rather pay $15 bucks to play a game, than have to pay for my gear/items in game.

No one cares if you think the game will fail dude.

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Originally posted by Proximo521

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Originally posted by Souldrainer

If you take the top 5 MMORPGs on the market right now, and find the median number of subscribers, then you will have an idea of how many players we'll see in SW:TOR.  I have no doubt in my mind as to how this is going to go...
#1 The game will move millions on launch day. 
#2 After two weeks or so, a massive exodus (of those who expected something different anr/or are impatient with bugs) will occur. 
#3  People will rant and rave about the massive failure for years to come. 
#4 People who actually stick it out for a while will have some fun, but many will still continue to rant and leave.
Finally, at the end of it all, we will have a moderately successful MMO, but a lot of people will call it a failure because it won't touch WOW in terms of Endgame PVE or bug squashing prowess.  In this respect, TOR will be no different than WAR or AoC.
At the end of the day, if you define "success" as "millions of sustained subscribers", then you are delusional, and the only successful MMO you know is WOW.  WOW was a fluke.  They got lucky.

---

 
Where did you get your crystal ball?

---

P.S. Star Wars: The Old Republic will succeed just like WAR and AoC.
fixed that for you
 

Originally posted by Syno23

Star Wars: The Old Republic will probably be one of the most amazing games, but after what I've seen, this game simply won't be a success. However, let's start with the basics.

GAMEPLAY:

Star Wars: The Old Republic will obviously have gameplay similar to the trailer most of us have seen in at E3 yesterday. I know Star Wars will have the most fun fast paced gameplay of let's just say all MMORPGs. However, Tabula Rasa probably had the most addicting gameplay in the world and it was shutdown by NCSoft.

STORY:

That is particularly because Tabula Rasa had boring quests and an uninteresting storyline. I know without a doubt that Star Wars: The Old Republic will have the best storyline of all MMORPGs. A fully voiced MMORPG, dang, I know it's going to feel real like a regular RPG. The storyline is already EPIC! The Sith vs. The JEDI! I couldn't ask for anything better. And, gameplay like Mass Effect and Knights of the Old Republic, you can't beat it.

ENDGAME: 

Age of Conan and Warhammer had some amazing gameplay. The storylines sucked but gameplay can make up for that. However, both games lacked endgame and eventually failed. They were released incomplete. I know Star Wars: The Old Republic is going to be complete, but that' the mistake BioWare is making, they are working too hard on the actual game.

Most if not all developers forget about the endgame. What is their problem? So, if Star Wars : The Old Republic doesn't have fun and exciting endgame, it will fail like the rest.

Share your thoughts.

So what is exactly your definition for a failure, cause from reading your post you come off as someone who thinks that 11 million is the only form of success. And even if it isn't, neither WAR nor AOC, which yes, ( had pretty horrible start but has been coming back  over the past few months, with good reason, as they have done a hell of a job fixing it up) are failures or are considered failures by industry professionals. While, no they didn't hit the insane levels that most forum dwellers predicted, 300k + is not bad and not even a failure.

And finally, your actual argument for their impending failure is on something have absolutely no information on, infact your basing all this off a cinematic ..... as we have no NO info on.

I will say though, that Mythic was hyping their shit far to much and did not deliver IMO, being and ex DAoC player i was expecting something great and was soarly disappointed with what I got, but that could be jsut as much my fault as it was Mythics.

Your argument is completely baseless and even more unfounded, saying a game is goign to fail becasue others did before you know anything about it is ignorant bordering on stupid.

Originally posted by Syno23

Star Wars: The Old Republic will probably be one of the most amazing games, but after what I've seen, this game simply won't be a success. However, let's start with the basics.

GAMEPLAY:

Star Wars: The Old Republic will obviously have gameplay similar to the trailer most of us have seen in at E3 yesterday. I know Star Wars will have the most fun fast paced gameplay of let's just say all MMORPGs. However, Tabula Rasa probably had the most addicting gameplay in the world and it was shutdown by NCSoft.

STORY:

That is particularly because Tabula Rasa had boring quests and an uninteresting storyline. I know without a doubt that Star Wars: The Old Republic will have the best storyline of all MMORPGs. A fully voiced MMORPG, dang, I know it's going to feel real like a regular RPG. The storyline is already EPIC! The Sith vs. The JEDI! I couldn't ask for anything better. And, gameplay like Mass Effect and Knights of the Old Republic, you can't beat it.

ENDGAME: 

Age of Conan and Warhammer had some amazing gameplay. The storylines sucked but gameplay can make up for that. However, both games lacked endgame and eventually failed. They were released incomplete. I know Star Wars: The Old Republic is going to be complete, but that' the mistake BioWare is making, they are working too hard on the actual game.

Most if not all developers forget about the endgame. What is their problem? So, if Star Wars : The Old Republic doesn't have fun and exciting endgame, it will fail like the rest.

Share your thoughts.

You wanna bet on this thought? I will bet its going to be a massive success there are so many elements that point to it, and Bioware never fails SOE do :)

The word fail is thrown far too much around, it's become absolutely ridiculous. Fail this, fail that, this will be a fail, blah blah blah... The game isn't even in beta for pete's sake.

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Originally posted by Baltus
I've said it before, there are only 2 companies out there that has produced hits for years, pratically every game they produce is a hit, those 2 companies are Blizzard ( starcraft, warcraft, diablo) and Bioware  ( Baldur's gate, Kotor, Mass Effect Neverwinter nights).  Now, the most succesful IP out there is SW, (I know, the new movies where somewhat disapointing but still a success), now combine the two and the odds are that it will be a really good game.
 
Lets stop with the hate and wait to see how the game developes, I am not saying it will be a success or a failure, if I had to bet on it, I would put my money with it being good, but in the end is a gamble.
 
 

---

Yes, several MMOs over the psat 3 years or so has been failures, AoC, PoTBS, Vanguard, Tabula Rasa (was fun), etc. and LOTRO is one of the only few that actually didn't fail.

So give it time and wait til SWTOR hits beta, THEN we'll talk.

I applaud peoples enthusiasm for a new title.  However, try to stay objective, otherwise you could be in for a shock.

Here's two words that prove that no matter what you're game development history you can still c*ck it up:  Brad McQuaid.

Here's another two words:    Richard Garriott

Now, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't SW:TOR going to be Biowares first MMO?

Mypoint is that Bioware have as much a chance to screw up their product as the others have of making a successful one.  

Sure, theres a chance that the very name of the company might cause an initial flood in sales, but that doesn't guarantee that the game will appeal to a large enough audience to be classed as successful on a longer time period.  Initial sales are only the tip of the iceberg, so to speak.  It's all about sub retention.

Come back after 6 months after release and THEN we'll know just how well Bioware pulled this off.

Originally posted by Syno23

Star Wars: The Old Republic will probably be one of the.... blah blah blah

 SUMMARY: Endgame needs to be done right or game will fail

OP, your insight into MMOs is truly amazing!

Originally posted by Tarka

I applaud peoples enthusiasm for a new title.  However, try to stay objective, otherwise you could be in for a shock.

Here's two words that prove that no matter what you're game development history you can still c*ck it up:  Brad McQuaid.

Here's another two words:    Richard Garriott

Now, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't SW:TOR going to be Biowares first MMO?

Mypoint is that Bioware have as much a chance to screw up their product as the others have of making a successful one.  

Sure, theres a chance that the very name of the company might cause an initial flood in sales, but that doesn't guarantee that the game will appeal to a large enough audience to be classed as successful on a longer time period.  Initial sales are only the tip of the iceberg, so to speak.  It's all about sub retention.

Come back after 6 months after release and THEN we'll know just how well Bioware pulled this off.

Right now, everybody is speculating.  However, Bioware has one of the best gaming pedigrees that exists.  I would say that title for title, they have probably been better than Blizzard in churning out blockbusters (though its close.)  They, like Blizzard, have a different mentality when approaching games.  They take their sweet time, and are more interested in quality than quantity.

Therefore when they do something like this, I give them the benefit of the doubt.  There was talk about them in this project back when the NGE hit.  Another thing Bioware has that other companies lack:  cold hard cash, and a ton of it.  This isn't a company that needs a financial savior.  Like Blizzard, they can throw a lot of cash at this project.  While money doesn't mean everything, it certainly helps.

If I were a betting man, I'd double down on SW:TOR becoming a massive hit.

OP is wrong... simple as that.

1) WAR isn't a failure... it's got over 300,000 subscribers.  That's not a failure.  It's a success... in fact it's a huge success.  People need to get over this delusion that games need to have 1,000,000 subscribers to be a success.

Break down the numbers:

300,000 subscribers = 300,000x15x12= $54,000,000/yr not including box sales.

Box Sales on 300,000 subscribers given average retention of 2-3 months is approximately 1,000,000 boxes a year in sales x $50 per box is another $50,000,000 a year, for at least the first year or so.

So how, exactly, is a 100,000,000 return on a 50,000,000 investment a failure?  That's a 200% rate of return on the game in just the first year.  That's a success no matter how you slice it. 

Even AOC isn't a failure.  If the game lasts longer than 2 years it only needs roughly 50,000 subscribers to be a "success" this is a known fact in the MMO industry and has been for over a decade now.  It is only since WOW that people have gotten this idiotic idea that to be 'successful' an MMO must have over 1million subscribers.  That's just absolute ludicrousy.  MMO's were successful before wow and they're still successful after WOW.   

2) SW:TOR is *STAR WARS*....

no matter how it turns out it will still be better than SWG... which means it'll get at least as many subscribers as SWG had in it's prime (300,000 by the way) and probably far more.  Also, SW:TOR doesn't suffer from the idiotic timeline that SWG did so it won't have the rabid storyline advocates yelling at them for having or not having Jedi in the game.  It will, quite simply, do better than the original SWG did.  Oh... and by the way, for those who keep saying "but it won't have space"  Neither did SWG and it hit 300k subs BEFORE jump to lightspeed was eventually added to the game.  An expansion, I might add, which got very little use then, and still gets very little use to this day.  Bottom line:  The game will easily hit 300k subscribers even if it's just a glorified lightsaber simulation ;)  So, yeah, it's gonna fail.... Sorry but you're wrong.

3) You are, once again, making assumptions based on...... nothing

End game?  How on earth would you have a clue what the end game in SW:TOR is going to be?  They've already stated that it will have PVP.  Which can be an end-game in and of itself (it is in EVE after all).  End-Game is entirely subjective and it depends completely on the game's design as to what it winds up being.  It could be raiding it could be territory control PVP it could be a combination of the two or it could be something altogether different.  Bottom line:  You don't know so you're just making a wild assed guess on what it'll be based on..... nothing.   

4)  As to 'gameplay'? 

I  would trust BioWare above almost any other game company out there to make sure the gameplay itself is fun.  I have yet to play a game of theirs that I didn't enjoy the gameplay in.   Your arguement there is a total non-arguement.

In summary:

You are wrong.

1) Your idea of what constitutes a 'failed' MMORPG is flawed

2) Your concept of what makes a MMORPG successful is flawed

3) You are basing your entire post on nothing but assumptions with no basis in fact... nor, for that matter, even in prior precedent for either MMORPG's in general or BioWare's track record.

Originally posted by iceman00

Right now, everybody is speculating.  However, Bioware has one of the best gaming pedigrees that exists.  I would say that title for title, they have probably been better than Blizzard in churning out blockbusters (though its close.)  They, like Blizzard, have a different mentality when approaching games.  They take their sweet time, and are more interested in quality than quantity.

Therefore when they do something like this, I give them the benefit of the doubt.  There was talk about them in this project back when the NGE hit.  Another thing Bioware has that other companies lack:  cold hard cash, and a ton of it.  This isn't a company that needs a financial savior.  Like Blizzard, they can throw a lot of cash at this project.  While money doesn't mean everything, it certainly helps.

If I were a betting man, I'd double down on SW:TOR becoming a massive hit.

Don't forget that BioWare has two HUGE RPG hits in the Star Wars arena already.  It's not like this is totaly untested ground for them.  It's not exactly a huge leap to take good RPG design and turn it into solid MMORPG design... remember:  This is exactly what Origin (another huge name, in it's day, in the gaming industry) did with Ultima... taking it from Ultima to Ultima Online and they were the first blockbuster MMORPG to hit the market.  With over 400,000 subscribers at their peak (only eclipsed by EQ1 at the time and EQ1 only had 500,000 at it's peak).

Personally I'll be very surprised if BioWare doesn't produce a huge hit on this one.  Will it be something that MMORPG vets like or not? I don't know... nor do I care... I expect it'll be very similar to the KOTOR games in many ways and if all they did was that and add multiplayer it would STILL be a huge hit. 

Not sure why you think TR had addicting gameplay, I thought it was boring as hell.  Anyway, the endgame with MMOs has taken a back seat lately, you are certainly correct about that.  But this is clear when developers keep creating theme park style games that are based on obtaining armor sets.  That is why the market has been craving a sandbox game where we can literally create our own end game without the endless grind for armor sets (I do realize both styles will have a grind).  I suppose you have a valid point here and you may end up being right, but I hope you are wrong.  I am putting my faith in Bioware to create an MMO that has a fun end game that is not repetitive. 

Originally posted by Tarka

 

Now, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't SW:TOR going to be Biowares first MMO?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't WoW Blizzard's first MMO?

The argument that you shouldn't expect much when a game is a company's first foray into MMOs is completely unsupportable by any evidence.  The most successful games in the history of the industry have all been made by companies with no prior experience making MMOs.

Originally posted by CazNeerg

Originally posted by Tarka

 

 

Now, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't SW:TOR going to be Biowares first MMO?

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't WoW Blizzard's first MMO?

The argument that you shouldn't expect much when a game is a company's first foray into MMOs is completely unsupportable by any evidence.  The most successful games in the history of the industry have all been made by companies with no prior experience making MMOs.

Yep... some examples:

EQ1 : SOE's first MMO  Still haven't equalled their success with that one

Ultima Online:  Origin Systems first MMO - Never repeated

Asheron's Call:  Turbine's first MMO... took them 3 tries to hit the jackpot a 2nd time

DAOC:  Mythic's first MMO and while WAR has slightly more players it's arguably not as good as DAOC was

WOW:  Blizzard's first MMO

Guild Wars:  yep.... big hit... still going strong......  Arena Net's first MMO

EVE Online:  CCP's first MMO.... still working on their 2nd

The list of "First MMO's" for established game companies that were successful is quite long indeed.  Stating that a game is someone's "First" MMO is a reason for failure is silly given the statistical fact that most first timers do better than most repeats.

Then there's also Dark and Light, POTBS, Darkfail, etc..... :-p

That's why I never look at "is this their first" as an indication.  I look at what their dedication is, how much quality time they are spending on something (real quality time) how they stick to their underlying vision, etc.