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Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning

WAR (Warhammer Online) 

General Discussion  » EA to report Q4 figures on May 12th. What's your guess on Sub numbers in WAR ?

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46 posts found
  Sortran

Novice Member

Joined: 5/30/07
Posts: 152

4/20/09 4:25:28 AM#21

I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.

Playing: Not much actively.
Games played: to many to list, been playing MMO's since 2001
--------------------------

  User Deleted
4/20/09 4:29:09 AM#22
Originally posted by Deewe

OP, really who cares?

If you enjoy playing the game find a busy server and have Fun. Otherwise you are wasting your time.

Even if an "insert MMO name here" had 10k players and the publisher would find it profitable to continue keeping it alive and add content regularly I wouldn't mind playing it if it's fun.


 

That is all very true, however some ppl like to see numbers to prove that a game is doing well, and to make them feel more secure about their purchase, alot of ppl are like sheep and just follow the crowds rather than making up their own minds.

Games such as Neocron 2 has less than 10k players yet it still exists as an mmo, obviously the developers are able to still make a profit otherwise the game would have ceased to exist very much like Shadowbane who closed it's door recently.

I'm interested though in seeing how much impact the free trial has had on the game and wether the recent patches and content updates have brought ppl back to the game, the latest WoW expac has now been out for awhile and ppl maybe looking for a new game, so WAR might benefit from that aswell.

It would be satisfying to see an improvement in subscriber numbers if there is one, if there isn't and the numbers have stayed the same or decreased I still won't be concerned, I don't work for EA I'm just a customer and I've already got my moneys worth out of the game.

  User Deleted
4/20/09 4:33:21 AM#23
Originally posted by Sortran

I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.


 

I've seen a HUGE increase in ppl in the T1 areas, and it's still like that even today before the server I was on came down for maintenance (Damn them), so I think the 10 day Trail is still having a big impact, everyone loves a free trial.

Giving a free trial is also a good sign in that the developers feel more secure about thier game, ofc the flip side is ppl will say it as a sign of desperation, but if thats true why would WoW have a free trial.

 

  Tyvolus1

Novice Member

Joined: 10/18/08
Posts: 858

4/21/09 11:33:38 PM#24
Originally posted by Sortran

I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.


 

you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.

Tyvolus Xfire Miniprofile
  Pheace

Novice Member

Joined: 12/17/03
Posts: 2434

You can either agree with me or be wrong!

4/21/09 11:46:20 PM#25
Originally posted by Tyvolus1
Originally posted by Sortran

I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.


 

you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.

 

I'd love for you to read to me their first EQ quarterly report after WAR's release and tell me "exactly" what it meant for WAR. Because there were countless different descriptions of what it "could" have meant.

 

Yes they have an obligation not to lie if they state something in a clear manner. There's no obligation to do that though. They can simply say they have "450k people playing WAR today!" and that would not be a lie on their part even though it might include 150k trials for all we know.

 

In other words, even though they may not lie about numbers in the report they also may not be an accurate representation of what most of us would call "Subscribers".  More often they will use "players" actually which is a totally undefined legal term which you can't easily lie about since there's hardly any way to use it "wrong".

 

Their last report however was a very clearcut "this is where we stand" which I applaud them for, didn't expect them(or any company that has to show a decline) to do that.

  popinjay

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/07/07
Posts: 6638

Aaron Rodgers>Brett Favre

4/21/09 11:51:28 PM#26


Originally posted by Pheace

 
I'd love for you to read to me their first EQ quarterly report after WAR's release and tell me "exactly" what it meant for WAR. Because there were countless different descriptions of what it "could" have meant.
 
Yes they have an obligation not to lie if they state something in a clear manner. There's no obligation to do that though. They can simply say they have "450k people playing WAR today!" and that would not be a lie on their part even though it might include 150k trials for all we know.
 
In other words, even though they may not lie about numbers in the report they also may not be an accurate representation of what most of us would call "Subscribers".  More often they will use "players" actually which is a totally undefined legal term which you can't easily lie about.
 
Their last report however was a very clearcut "this is where we stand" which I applaud them for, didn't expect them(or any company that has to show a decline) to do that.


You DO know how that is going to turn out already, don't you? [/wink]

  Raztor

Novice Member

Joined: 12/19/06
Posts: 683

EQ-WoW raider
EvE Trader

4/22/09 2:42:00 AM#27
Originally posted by Zorndorf

Look at the graphics

http://www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/

Now before rolling in that the 200.000 western Xfire players don't represent anything. .... it is online and a service that tracks 24/24 hours.

---------------

Now the graph itself is NOT the interesting thing, it is the numbers of PEOPLE logged in using Xfire. At the end of Sep it was between 12K (week) and 15 K (weekend). We NOW know this stood for 750K to 800K players in War (source: EA)

At Christmas this figure was 5.5K to 6K. We NOW know this stood for 300K "subscriptions" (counting in the new copies sold at XMas).

NOW we see 3K to 3.3K of players. As the Xfire figures are rather trustworthy in having a consistent measure IF there isn't an XFire promotion going on (like the AOC promotion between 1 - 16 April)...

It shows that NOW the number of total players would be in the order of 200K players at the most.

------------------

So a prediction: EA will be talking of "number of accounts/players" again - including the TRIAL accounts of March as they can't afford to talk about 200K subscriptions/active players. Another press release stating 40% loss in subscriptions would be devestating to their game.

----------->

 As long as Xfire itself doesn't use "promotions", the interaction between games is also rather accurate (as 200.000 XFire players is indeed a large base). Last year it was reported LotrO had 175K subs. It is exactly in the same order as War right now. Also the ratio of players between Wow and War is at a 30/1 ratio right now. If Wow is about 5 million western subs, just divide 5 million by 30 ... and you get again the same 170K players.
So Xfire is rather accurate to see the number of players in an online game.

 

Nice and clear post. Pretty much sums what I was going to say. I'd be highly surprised if it's over the 180k mark in US/Europe. With the release of the Korean and Rusian versions it'll be over 200k so I guess that's the numbers EA will use.

  Sortran

Novice Member

Joined: 5/30/07
Posts: 152

4/22/09 3:50:45 AM#28
Originally posted by Tyvolus1
Originally posted by Sortran

I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.


 

you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.


 

Pheace beat me to the rebuttal. Nice try though.  Numbers can be played many ways and still be true. So apparently you know very little on what is classified as accurate number reporting on the reports that go out to stockholders.

Playing: Not much actively.
Games played: to many to list, been playing MMO's since 2001
--------------------------

  Kordesh

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/12/06
Posts: 1731

4/22/09 3:55:52 AM#29
Originally posted by Sortran
Originally posted by Tyvolus1
Originally posted by Sortran

I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.


 

you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.


 

Pheace beat me to the rebuttal. Nice try though.  Numbers can be played many ways and still be true. So apparently you know very little on what is classified as accurate number reporting on the reports that go out to stockholders.

Oh please. Since when have companies been ethical about anything in the past several decades? Including trial accounts and other things to fluff the numbers is EXACTLY what they would do. If they were pressed for specifics they would obviously need to give them up, but you can be damn sure they're going to try and make things look as rosey as possible. 

Bans a perma, but so are sigs in necro posts.

EAT ME MMORPG.com!

  merrua

Novice Member

Joined: 3/07/09
Posts: 12

4/22/09 4:01:35 AM#30

 

Its a pity about War, I liked somethings about the game, but got bored before I finished the free month when you buy the game.

What some people have said might be right, when they doubled the xps needed to level they killed it a bit. If my level 16 character was level 32 I might have been still interested for the last week. 

 

  srsh12345

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/04/06
Posts: 61

4/22/09 12:49:08 PM#31

I honestly don't see EA publishing this number without fudging it a little.  

 

Like counting people who have unsubcribed but their acc't hasn't expired, counting trial accounts, etc.  However, I don't fault them because I believe all MMO do this.  It's in every MMO best interest to show higher numbers so that potential new players don't feel like they're joining a dying game.

 

My guess is that there's 200-250,000 active players.  I believe they'll report close to 450,000

  Tyvolus1

Novice Member

Joined: 10/18/08
Posts: 858

4/22/09 5:29:58 PM#32
Originally posted by Pheace
Originally posted by Tyvolus1
Originally posted by Sortran

I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.


 

you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.

 

I'd love for you to read to me their first EQ quarterly report after WAR's release and tell me "exactly" what it meant for WAR. Because there were countless different descriptions of what it "could" have meant.

 

Yes they have an obligation not to lie if they state something in a clear manner. There's no obligation to do that though. They can simply say they have "450k people playing WAR today!" and that would not be a lie on their part even though it might include 150k trials for all we know.

 

In other words, even though they may not lie about numbers in the report they also may not be an accurate representation of what most of us would call "Subscribers".  More often they will use "players" actually which is a totally undefined legal term which you can't easily lie about since there's hardly any way to use it "wrong".

 

Their last report however was a very clearcut "this is where we stand" which I applaud them for, didn't expect them(or any company that has to show a decline) to do that.

IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC.  I do not work for EA and am in no way responsible for their quarterly and/or yearly filings.  Take it up with the appropriate parties if you feel you can make a case...Somehow I doubt you can.  This is one of those cases of put up or shut up. -- Serious accusations my friend, go ahead and prove it.  And not to me, take it to the SEC and file a complaint.  Just be sure to have some facts, telling them you are a wow fanboi and dont like WAR wont help your case much to them.  They may get a good chuckle at your expense -- something I am known to enjoy as well.
 

Tyvolus Xfire Miniprofile
  oddjobs74

Novice Member

Joined: 3/21/07
Posts: 597

4/22/09 5:35:41 PM#33
Originally posted by popinjay

 


Originally posted by Deewe

 

OP, really who cares?


 

 

At last count?

 


406 people, including you.
 


 

pwned!

  Pheace

Novice Member

Joined: 12/17/03
Posts: 2434

You can either agree with me or be wrong!

4/23/09 12:37:23 AM#34
Originally posted by Tyvolus1
Originally posted by Pheace
Originally posted by Tyvolus1
Originally posted by Sortran

I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.


 

you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.

 

I'd love for you to read to me their first EQ quarterly report after WAR's release and tell me "exactly" what it meant for WAR. Because there were countless different descriptions of what it "could" have meant.

 

Yes they have an obligation not to lie if they state something in a clear manner. There's no obligation to do that though. They can simply say they have "450k people playing WAR today!" and that would not be a lie on their part even though it might include 150k trials for all we know.

 

In other words, even though they may not lie about numbers in the report they also may not be an accurate representation of what most of us would call "Subscribers".  More often they will use "players" actually which is a totally undefined legal term which you can't easily lie about since there's hardly any way to use it "wrong".

 

Their last report however was a very clearcut "this is where we stand" which I applaud them for, didn't expect them(or any company that has to show a decline) to do that.

IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC.  I do not work for EA and am in no way responsible for their quarterly and/or yearly filings.  Take it up with the appropriate parties if you feel you can make a case...Somehow I doubt you can.  This is one of those cases of put up or shut up. -- Serious accusations my friend, go ahead and prove it.  And not to me, take it to the SEC and file a complaint.  Just be sure to have some facts, telling them you are a wow fanboi and dont like WAR wont help your case much to them.  They may get a good chuckle at your expense -- something I am known to enjoy as well.
 

 

Haha, that completely went over your head didn't it? Do you need someone to translate what I said to you? Did you understand a single word I said? I didn't say they lied, I said they didn't need to. Reread what I said because you obviously didn't grasp it at all, which just makes yourself look like a fool for building an argument on something I didn't say :)  

 

Love your baseless defensive rant though, very true to form, attack the messenger on something he didn't say rather than argue the point he did  ;)

  Distaste

Advanced Member

Joined: 10/03/06
Posts: 668

4/23/09 2:01:13 AM#35

I doubt they will even release numbers. I mean Mark didn't even sound sure they would make the earnings call when they announced 300k so now with them being lower I doubt they will announce them. Especially since SWTOR is an MMO which is a major investment. Just because the one MMO didn't do well doesn't mean SWTOR won't so no point in bringing negativity to the MMO portion of quarter.

Just so people get their facts straight.


Dec 31st- 300k Subs

March 11th- 63 servers were shutdown

Google Trends and Xfire have had Warhammer Online on a downward trend the entire time with only small bursts of increased activity.

Mythic has also given out 10 day free trials to old and new players to try and generate subs. They have also added exclusive refer a friend items like the Manticore and gryphon mounts.

The Russian version only has 2 servers.

 

All signs point to not doing well. So it would be a million to one shot for them to be over 300k subs. Heck most people thought the game was sub 100k in Feb. My bet is on 150k-200k just by using the difference of players on Xfire at Xmas and now. Sure xfire isn't that reliable but we will see.

  Pheace

Novice Member

Joined: 12/17/03
Posts: 2434

You can either agree with me or be wrong!

4/23/09 6:31:22 AM#36

One thing I've noticed about MJ talking about EA quarter results and WAR's sub numbers. MJ himself seems to have squat all to do with whether they are in there or not. It's basically up to EA. To be honest, if they had actually worried about the impact of sub numbers on games I don't think they would have posted last quarters sub numbers to begin with. Just doesn't seem to matter much to EA.

 

 

  TheHavok

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/13/04
Posts: 2417

"Free crack and everybody gets laid."

4/23/09 6:45:17 AM#37

Im going to say, around 200k.  The game in dwindling...not expanding, I think thats clear to all the MMORPG community.  I wont even get into the reasons why.

Warhammer: A needed success to show our mmorpg community that....well...our community maybe dying?  LOL okay, MJ....time for bedtime.

  spaceno37

Apprentice Member

Joined: 4/13/09
Posts: 3

4/23/09 8:32:23 AM#38

I was one of those 10 free trail accounts for April.  I didn't make it 10 days.

The game just wasn't fun.  Sorry, graphics were only ok for me.  Game play was laggy/jerky (Like using arrows).  While they gave a lot of information it just seemed overload somewhat.

I played DoAC, Everquest I&II, WOW, Eve Online, and others.  
 

There just seemed to be something missing.  No fear factor of dying (got to level 9 didn't die). 

 

Spaceno

  LrdHades

Novice Member

Joined: 2/11/04
Posts: 163

4/23/09 3:24:39 PM#39

There's a few things you have to keep in mind.

 

1. War expanding worldwide

The released in some new regions, so Q1 may see a world wide subscriber uptick. So it may not be until Q2 or later before we see those numbers wash out. This game had over a 50% churn rate, so most people who pick it up don't stick around.

 

2. Free Trials

This too has seen an uptick due to recent marketing efforts.  We'll see if EA announces active subscribers or active players.  Technically though they could try to make free trial accounts out to be subscribers in order to pad the numbers.

 

Either way there isn't any decent game out there. If people like PVE then they're in WoW or another PVE game.  If they like PVP they are on EVE, WoW-PVP Servers, War, AOC, and a handful of others. All of them pretty much play alike.

I think the market will remain like it is now until major releases come out in 2010 or 2011.

 

 

  Tyvolus1

Novice Member

Joined: 10/18/08
Posts: 858

4/24/09 3:08:04 PM#40
Originally posted by Pheace
Originally posted by Tyvolus1
Originally posted by Pheace
Originally posted by Tyvolus1
Originally posted by Sortran

I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.


 

you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.

 

I'd love for you to read to me their first EQ quarterly report after WAR's release and tell me "exactly" what it meant for WAR. Because there were countless different descriptions of what it "could" have meant.

 

Yes they have an obligation not to lie if they state something in a clear manner. There's no obligation to do that though. They can simply say they have "450k people playing WAR today!" and that would not be a lie on their part even though it might include 150k trials for all we know.

 

In other words, even though they may not lie about numbers in the report they also may not be an accurate representation of what most of us would call "Subscribers".  More often they will use "players" actually which is a totally undefined legal term which you can't easily lie about since there's hardly any way to use it "wrong".

 

Their last report however was a very clearcut "this is where we stand" which I applaud them for, didn't expect them(or any company that has to show a decline) to do that.

IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC.  I do not work for EA and am in no way responsible for their quarterly and/or yearly filings.  Take it up with the appropriate parties if you feel you can make a case...Somehow I doubt you can.  This is one of those cases of put up or shut up. -- Serious accusations my friend, go ahead and prove it.  And not to me, take it to the SEC and file a complaint.  Just be sure to have some facts, telling them you are a wow fanboi and dont like WAR wont help your case much to them.  They may get a good chuckle at your expense -- something I am known to enjoy as well.
 

 

Haha, that completely went over your head didn't it? Do you need someone to translate what I said to you? Did you understand a single word I said? I didn't say they lied, I said they didn't need to. Reread what I said because you obviously didn't grasp it at all, which just makes yourself look like a fool for building an argument on something I didn't say :)  

 

Love your baseless defensive rant though, very true to form, attack the messenger on something he didn't say rather than argue the point he did  ;)

"IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC."
 

This is what I wrote in response to your mindless ramblings which all but tried to convince people that EA is attempting to mislead people in their quarterly and/or yearly filings.  You run on about how they are trying to manipulate their subs they provide in a report they filed.  You should try not to speak out of both sides of your mouth, especially in the same thread.  Either way, we can argue semantics all day, but everyone here knows which one of us is the smart one, and it isnt the guy with the picture of "fluffy" for his avatar.

Tyvolus Xfire Miniprofile
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