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You DO know how that is going to turn out already, don't you? [/wink] "You know, you have such a stunningly superficial knowledge of what went on that it's almost embarrassing to listen to you." Zbigniew Brzezinski to Joe Scarborough regarding Clinton and the Middle East on the "Morning Joe" program. |
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Look at the graphics http://www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/ Now before rolling in that the 200.000 western Xfire players don't represent anything. .... it is online and a service that tracks 24/24 hours. --------------- Now the graph itself is NOT the interesting thing, it is the numbers of PEOPLE logged in using Xfire. At the end of Sep it was between 12K (week) and 15 K (weekend). We NOW know this stood for 750K to 800K players in War (source: EA) At Christmas this figure was 5.5K to 6K. We NOW know this stood for 300K "subscriptions" (counting in the new copies sold at XMas). NOW we see 3K to 3.3K of players. As the Xfire figures are rather trustworthy in having a consistent measure IF there isn't an XFire promotion going on (like the AOC promotion between 1 - 16 April)... It shows that NOW the number of total players would be in the order of 200K players at the most. ------------------ So a prediction: EA will be talking of "number of accounts/players" again - including the TRIAL accounts of March as they can't afford to talk about 200K subscriptions/active players. Another press release stating 40% loss in subscriptions would be devestating to their game. -----------> As long as Xfire itself doesn't use "promotions", the interaction between games is also rather accurate (as 200.000 XFire players is indeed a large base). Last year it was reported LotrO had 175K subs. It is exactly in the same order as War right now. Also the ratio of players between Wow and War is at a 30/1 ratio right now. If Wow is about 5 million western subs, just divide 5 million by 30 ... and you get again the same 170K players.
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Originally posted by Zorndorf Nice and clear post. Pretty much sums what I was going to say. I'd be highly surprised if it's over the 180k mark in US/Europe. With the release of the Korean and Rusian versions it'll be over 200k so I guess that's the numbers EA will use. |
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Originally posted by Tyvolus1
you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations. But, nice try.
Pheace beat me to the rebuttal. Nice try though. Numbers can be played many ways and still be true. So apparently you know very little on what is classified as accurate number reporting on the reports that go out to stockholders. Playing: Not much actively. |
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Originally posted by Sortran
Pheace beat me to the rebuttal. Nice try though. Numbers can be played many ways and still be true. So apparently you know very little on what is classified as accurate number reporting on the reports that go out to stockholders. Oh please. Since when have companies been ethical about anything in the past several decades? Including trial accounts and other things to fluff the numbers is EXACTLY what they would do. If they were pressed for specifics they would obviously need to give them up, but you can be damn sure they're going to try and make things look as rosey as possible. |
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Its a pity about War, I liked somethings about the game, but got bored before I finished the free month when you buy the game. What some people have said might be right, when they doubled the xps needed to level they killed it a bit. If my level 16 character was level 32 I might have been still interested for the last week.
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I honestly don't see EA publishing this number without fudging it a little.
Like counting people who have unsubcribed but their acc't hasn't expired, counting trial accounts, etc. However, I don't fault them because I believe all MMO do this. It's in every MMO best interest to show higher numbers so that potential new players don't feel like they're joining a dying game.
My guess is that there's 200-250,000 active players. I believe they'll report close to 450,000 |
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Originally posted by Pheace
I'd love for you to read to me their first EQ quarterly report after WAR's release and tell me "exactly" what it meant for WAR. Because there were countless different descriptions of what it "could" have meant.
Yes they have an obligation not to lie if they state something in a clear manner. There's no obligation to do that though. They can simply say they have "450k people playing WAR today!" and that would not be a lie on their part even though it might include 150k trials for all we know.
In other words, even though they may not lie about numbers in the report they also may not be an accurate representation of what most of us would call "Subscribers". More often they will use "players" actually which is a totally undefined legal term which you can't easily lie about since there's hardly any way to use it "wrong".
Their last report however was a very clearcut "this is where we stand" which I applaud them for, didn't expect them(or any company that has to show a decline) to do that. IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC. I do not work for EA and am in no way responsible for their quarterly and/or yearly filings. Take it up with the appropriate parties if you feel you can make a case...Somehow I doubt you can. This is one of those cases of put up or shut up. -- Serious accusations my friend, go ahead and prove it. And not to me, take it to the SEC and file a complaint. Just be sure to have some facts, telling them you are a wow fanboi and dont like WAR wont help your case much to them. They may get a good chuckle at your expense -- something I am known to enjoy as well. |
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Originally posted by popinjay
pwned! |
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Originally posted by Tyvolus1
I'd love for you to read to me their first EQ quarterly report after WAR's release and tell me "exactly" what it meant for WAR. Because there were countless different descriptions of what it "could" have meant.
Yes they have an obligation not to lie if they state something in a clear manner. There's no obligation to do that though. They can simply say they have "450k people playing WAR today!" and that would not be a lie on their part even though it might include 150k trials for all we know.
In other words, even though they may not lie about numbers in the report they also may not be an accurate representation of what most of us would call "Subscribers". More often they will use "players" actually which is a totally undefined legal term which you can't easily lie about since there's hardly any way to use it "wrong".
Their last report however was a very clearcut "this is where we stand" which I applaud them for, didn't expect them(or any company that has to show a decline) to do that. IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC. I do not work for EA and am in no way responsible for their quarterly and/or yearly filings. Take it up with the appropriate parties if you feel you can make a case...Somehow I doubt you can. This is one of those cases of put up or shut up. -- Serious accusations my friend, go ahead and prove it. And not to me, take it to the SEC and file a complaint. Just be sure to have some facts, telling them you are a wow fanboi and dont like WAR wont help your case much to them. They may get a good chuckle at your expense -- something I am known to enjoy as well.
Haha, that completely went over your head didn't it? Do you need someone to translate what I said to you? Did you understand a single word I said? I didn't say they lied, I said they didn't need to. Reread what I said because you obviously didn't grasp it at all, which just makes yourself look like a fool for building an argument on something I didn't say :)
Love your baseless defensive rant though, very true to form, attack the messenger on something he didn't say rather than argue the point he did ;)
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I doubt they will even release numbers. I mean Mark didn't even sound sure they would make the earnings call when they announced 300k so now with them being lower I doubt they will announce them. Especially since SWTOR is an MMO which is a major investment. Just because the one MMO didn't do well doesn't mean SWTOR won't so no point in bringing negativity to the MMO portion of quarter. Just so people get their facts straight.
March 11th- 63 servers were shutdown Google Trends and Xfire have had Warhammer Online on a downward trend the entire time with only small bursts of increased activity. Mythic has also given out 10 day free trials to old and new players to try and generate subs. They have also added exclusive refer a friend items like the Manticore and gryphon mounts. The Russian version only has 2 servers.
All signs point to not doing well. So it would be a million to one shot for them to be over 300k subs. Heck most people thought the game was sub 100k in Feb. My bet is on 150k-200k just by using the difference of players on Xfire at Xmas and now. Sure xfire isn't that reliable but we will see. |
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Originally posted by Distaste If using Xfire in combo with officially confirmed data then Xfire is rather accurate. 12K(week)-15K (weekends) Xfire players after 3 weeks (end of Sep) would equal 800K "accounts created" (EA confirmed). 5.5K - 6K Xfire players at XMas would equal 300K "subscriptions" (EA confirmed). 3.0 - 3.3K Xfire players NOW would equal .... (170K) ??? The sample stays the same (Xfire players), so a simple 3 way math is showing the subscription base is under 200K. As Xfire players are PC players with an internet connection and as the War sample base of Xfire is high enough, the figures should be reliable. Even between games the data are consistent (as long as no special Xfire "offers" and "prices" are promoting a specific game) because 200.000 western PC gamers is H U G E. --- So I bet EA will not say anything OR talk about "players/accounts playing" and so including the trial accounts. I am curious, but my guess they will say "around 250K players". But you can't beat data from a sample of 200.000 western PC users which is being monitored 24/24 hours.
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One thing I've noticed about MJ talking about EA quarter results and WAR's sub numbers. MJ himself seems to have squat all to do with whether they are in there or not. It's basically up to EA. To be honest, if they had actually worried about the impact of sub numbers on games I don't think they would have posted last quarters sub numbers to begin with. Just doesn't seem to matter much to EA.
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Im going to say, around 200k. The game in dwindling...not expanding, I think thats clear to all the MMORPG community. I wont even get into the reasons why. Warhammer: A needed success to show our mmorpg community that....well...our community maybe dying? LOL okay, MJ....time for bedtime.
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I was one of those 10 free trail accounts for April. I didn't make it 10 days. The game just wasn't fun. Sorry, graphics were only ok for me. Game play was laggy/jerky (Like using arrows). While they gave a lot of information it just seemed overload somewhat. I played DoAC, Everquest I&II, WOW, Eve Online, and others. There just seemed to be something missing. No fear factor of dying (got to level 9 didn't die).
Spaceno |
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There's a few things you have to keep in mind.
1. War expanding worldwide The released in some new regions, so Q1 may see a world wide subscriber uptick. So it may not be until Q2 or later before we see those numbers wash out. This game had over a 50% churn rate, so most people who pick it up don't stick around.
2. Free Trials This too has seen an uptick due to recent marketing efforts. We'll see if EA announces active subscribers or active players. Technically though they could try to make free trial accounts out to be subscribers in order to pad the numbers.
Either way there isn't any decent game out there. If people like PVE then they're in WoW or another PVE game. If they like PVP they are on EVE, WoW-PVP Servers, War, AOC, and a handful of others. All of them pretty much play alike. I think the market will remain like it is now until major releases come out in 2010 or 2011.
Guildmaster |
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Originally posted by Pheace IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC. I do not work for EA and am in no way responsible for their quarterly and/or yearly filings. Take it up with the appropriate parties if you feel you can make a case...Somehow I doubt you can. This is one of those cases of put up or shut up. -- Serious accusations my friend, go ahead and prove it. And not to me, take it to the SEC and file a complaint. Just be sure to have some facts, telling them you are a wow fanboi and dont like WAR wont help your case much to them. They may get a good chuckle at your expense -- something I am known to enjoy as well.
Haha, that completely went over your head didn't it? Do you need someone to translate what I said to you? Did you understand a single word I said? I didn't say they lied, I said they didn't need to. Reread what I said because you obviously didn't grasp it at all, which just makes yourself look like a fool for building an argument on something I didn't say :)
Love your baseless defensive rant though, very true to form, attack the messenger on something he didn't say rather than argue the point he did ;) "IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC." This is what I wrote in response to your mindless ramblings which all but tried to convince people that EA is attempting to mislead people in their quarterly and/or yearly filings. You run on about how they are trying to manipulate their subs they provide in a report they filed. You should try not to speak out of both sides of your mouth, especially in the same thread. Either way, we can argue semantics all day, but everyone here knows which one of us is the smart one, and it isnt the guy with the picture of "fluffy" for his avatar. |
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Originally posted by Tyvolus1 IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC. I do not work for EA and am in no way responsible for their quarterly and/or yearly filings. Take it up with the appropriate parties if you feel you can make a case...Somehow I doubt you can. This is one of those cases of put up or shut up. -- Serious accusations my friend, go ahead and prove it. And not to me, take it to the SEC and file a complaint. Just be sure to have some facts, telling them you are a wow fanboi and dont like WAR wont help your case much to them. They may get a good chuckle at your expense -- something I am known to enjoy as well.
Haha, that completely went over your head didn't it? Do you need someone to translate what I said to you? Did you understand a single word I said? I didn't say they lied, I said they didn't need to. Reread what I said because you obviously didn't grasp it at all, which just makes yourself look like a fool for building an argument on something I didn't say :)
Love your baseless defensive rant though, very true to form, attack the messenger on something he didn't say rather than argue the point he did ;) "IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC." This is what I wrote in response to your mindless ramblings which all but tried to convince people that EA is attempting to mislead people in their quarterly and/or yearly filings. You run on about how they are trying to manipulate their subs they provide in a report they filed. You should try not to speak out of both sides of your mouth, especially in the same thread. Either way, we can argue semantics all day, but everyone here knows which one of us is the smart one, and it isnt the guy with the picture of "fluffy" for his avatar.
Considering you're the one that tried to make it sound like companies only provide "accurate and true information" and you didn't even manage to bring up a single argument to my reply to that. Yes I 'm pretty sure people know who's the one in the wrong here.
If you hadn't noticed, I already claimed "what you said" was based on your own misconceptions, yet you continue to somehow take them for truth after having been made to bend over already. But go right ahead and keep insulting people though and making up stuff, it's very true to form ;)
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Well i tried the 10 day reactivation deal. This game is a disaster. They have added several things but the core of the game has not changed at all. It seems to just be a continuous rehash of mush. I have no idea what the total popualtion is but on the NA servers it's really low it seems despite the fact that they have basically merged servers 10 to 1 now. Some NA servers barely break out of low population even in prime time. During off peak hours it's virtually a wasteland. Unless 250k of the 300k are EU players there is no chance this game has 300k subs now. I would be surprised if they had more than 100k in NA. Servers continue to lose players and some have become very unbalanced making the problem worse.
They still haven't fixed many of the problems they had in beta yet they try to keep spitting out new classes live events and other stuff to keep people playing but unfortunately most of it is plagued with bugs and broken like the rest of the game. It's a shame that mythic has let this game fail so badly but I guess they are broke anyway so it's hard to put resources into something when your losing money already. |
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There is an odd thing going on these days. Warhammer is now being promoted through Xfire ... (by giving it free speech and access to the trials). Normally this means the game skyrockets to double the number of Xfire players (like it did with Eve, Lotro, Aoc...), but in the case of Warhammer it still is declining in number of players....As speech is not offered in game it would normally have a BIG impact on the PvP guilds actively playing War. But ... it doesn't: not even growing .... Very curious. The only thing it would mean is that it already attracted the majority of the interested players and still is losing its player base. That implies that the server problems of unbalanced factions and too low pops are devestating ATM and the summer even has to begin. ------ If the trend continues DOAC is the only alternative to turn to I think for the players loving RvR (as most will not like to return to Wow I guess). It will be interesting what EA will do when KOTOR gets announced. Perhaps Mythic should prepare a DAOC2.
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Who's doing that, Zorn? I didn't see a promotion through Xfire by Mythic recently. Could you link that? "You know, you have such a stunningly superficial knowledge of what went on that it's almost embarrassing to listen to you." Zbigniew Brzezinski to Joe Scarborough regarding Clinton and the Middle East on the "Morning Joe" program. |
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Originally posted by Volatility
3?....17?.....4768590432?.....1/2 ? It's better to lurk in forums and be thought a fool...than to endlessly "Quote" and remove all doubts. |
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Originally posted by popinjay
Just look at the banner of War, promoting free in game speech and download. I don't understand it has no effect on Xfire stats. With other games recently this led to double Xfire figures because ot these promotions (Lotro, eve, aoc come to mind). Of course these promos are only very temp., but it has no influene at all now.
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War is below 200k active players! (I'm NOT one of them)
But they will probably show a number of 350-400k. Free trials etc. included.
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Either way, I recently came back to WAR and loving it, they made ALOT of improvements and medium servers have an active population. Cyberwiz aka CyberGh0st aka Mentakh |
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