Originally posted by Assasinated

Originally posted by Litigator_AB

Originally posted by Assasinated

So let me see if I get this straight, Finaticd, Hamrtime2, and Litigator_AB you think that your opinions are more correct than the opinions of the investors and the analytics on FC and AoC. You think your posts hold higher quality than the calculations the investors that actually have bought FC stock since beginning of this week.... I find that a bit hard to belive and I also am confused by Litigators "Investors are not happy"?? The bloody stock have gone up like a madman this year.

Again, I have little clue about finances but I think somebody is wrong when 4 different Investor Banks, analysts and whatever (found this is a different post somewhere) come out with the same massage the same day after Q4 reports. Let me just copy paste what these guys just said TODAY (not 2 months ago):

 

I am absolute in my opinion that Funcom is a garbage company and that my analysis of Funcom's position is better than these obscure Norwegian security firms. 

I also think my calculations are far more informative.  Because quite frankly, I don't care if Funcom's balance sheet from 2008 looks okay.  Because the product that is their only source of substantial revenue is garbage, they have too many employees, and the MMO market is not forgiving to failed launches.  

And sorry kid, the stock is down 92% for the year.  For every person who bought in at 3 NOK and has made a 30% profit the last month there are, quite literally, 1000 investors who have lost 90% of their investment.  Down 95% or 92%...it is still a disaster.  

Note that on yahoofinance Funcom had buy recommendations all throughout May-July from prominent security firms in Norway.  Now how good was that advice?

Lol,

Lit

 

Look guys, don't confuse me not knowing financials for being stupid. There's like 4 different proffesional Analysts/Banks above recommending FC and AoC (all of them yesterday) and you say not one but all of them got it wrong and are useless... While this Analyst www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/224635/Fredrik-Thoresen-DnBNor-Markets-Age-of-Conan-has-around-70000-players.html, dropping a few anecdotes on FC 2 months back, got a full very active thread going alone on a nearly outdated topic. Right now I suspect it's just because he happened to have some opinions (2 month old that is) that coincides with yours. I am sure it looks that way for many other people too so perhaps you want to explain us better.

My point here is, if you guys mean the analysts above are wrong, where did they miscalculate something? I mean what is it that they think is good that you disagree with? Please focus on this question instead of just writing some negative stuff to solidify your opinion. I am interested in finding out what is it in the professional analysts analysis that you disagree with? Once we have established this it should be easy for us readers to vote on the Real Life Investors or our own MMORPG analysts.

Do you know who struck it rich in the California Gold Rush? The Merchants who sold the picks and shovels, not the Miners. Analysts and Trading Firms are 'selling picks and shovels' in the stock market.  There were a ton of analysts that tried to steer me away from Micro-Soft when they went public,  glad I didn't listen.

As for Litigator_AB, he has been on top of this early on, and has been on the mark, and as for your question about those Norweigian analysts, he answered you and now you are trying to ignore it because you didn't like his answer.

Norweigian analysts will always be wrong since they are seeing funcom from within a certain degree of national pride. A degree of bias is involved.

Originally posted by hobo9766

Norweigian analysts will always be wrong since they are seeing funcom from within a certain degree of national pride. A degree of bias is involved.

You can't have read his post. I think he is asking why some people only refer to an outdated negative article from back in Dec, but not to the four positive articles that came out yesterday or whatever. They are all norwegian so... He kind of have a point. I think certain people are using financial rubbish to get to FC now.

I just came from WAR a couple of weeks back and I'll tell you, AoC is in a remarkable good state compared to Mythics shit. Bleeeehhh... WAR is boring and screwed up!!!

The current status of Funcom surely is not good, but there is hope for the future.

Yes, AoC, did lack contents and its playing fields was limited in size and innovation. The game became unpopular mostly though, because people expected more. When you come from WoW that has been build up by frequently added contents throughout many years, and then you meet a new game with 1/10 of that in contents, the mood has to be disappointment.

For a newcomer to MMO, AoC is beliieve it or not, an amazing experience, its generally agreed that it is the best looking MMO on the market, and yes, when you are an experience MMO gamer, you go through the contents very fast, but for the newcomer, that isnt so, and it takes a little time before they start to think "where do I go to level up".

So while AoC steadily becomes better and better, there is no doubt it needs to, to keep even the barely 100K subscriber they have now. But why wouldnt they do what they can?

Funcom has new things up the sleeve as well. They recently hired a genious game designer (Rasmus Hahr), a bit of a scoop for Funcom, since he is really good. He is working on the comng mmo title The Secret World, so that game does have a chance.

They are also working on several casual MMO's, which actually is a much much bigger market, than the quality client MMO market is. They chose to use the Unity engine for this, which is a huge scoop, since thats probably the best engine out there right now for casual MMO's and a very fast one to develop in, meaning they just might be ready  to launch their next mmo already in 2009.

Those two things, would get an investor hopeful, the hiring of Rasmus and the use of the right developing tool, Unity, making them able to launch something in 2009.

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Originally posted by zymurgeist
There's wrong and then there's wrong. "The stock lost 90% of it's value" is a misleading statement. It was never worth that much.When Funcom was 55 it was way overvalued. The game would have to be an amazing success to justify the stock having been that high. People ran it up on pure speculation. Prior to that it was at about 12. It was worth that. A successful AoC launch would have justified a significant increase. Maybe to 24. AoC had a bad launch the stock fell rapidly. Now the company is undervalued so the stock is slowly drifting upward. That's where the buy recommendations comes from. However it's not worth 12 any more. It's more like 5 or6 and it's not going to have any significant gain until the company finds a way to increase it's revenue stream or gets closer to launching another game. No Funcom isn't going bankrupt. No it's not going to suddenly become an investment that makes people rich overnight. No AoC is not the largest  part of the companies debt, revenue, or operating budget any more. It's just another property like AO.  There are better gaming companies to invest in right now but funcom is a reasonable buy for a small portion of your investment portfolio if you only expect at most a very modest return.
 
Yes I'm a real life investor. No I'm not a broker or a financial expert or Rodger O. Riney. I'm just a guy with a self managed retirement account.

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WoW.......This kills me.

#1 The stock lost 93% of its value in 2008. I still dont understand how thats misleading. Doesnt matter if "you think" it was over valued. Facts are facts.

#2 So if AoC is just like AO (which currently brings in little to no income), where is their revenue coming from? AoC has an est 70,000 subs! There isnt enough income coming into the company to keep it going in its current state.

Can you explain why they lost 38,000,000 u.s. in 2008? Or how about the 23,000,000 in the 4th quarter alone. Its simple math really. There isnt enough revenue coming in from AoC to support the company.

They have 39,000,000 in cash at the end of 2008. If they lost 7,000,000 in Jan and Feb like they did in the months in the 4th q then they are down to around 25,000,000. How long will the company last with little cash and all the debt they have????? Not long.

I'd like to point out that many people actually bought Enron stock after it bottomed out thinking it would rebound.  Just sayin'.

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Originally posted by Mitara
Funcom has new things up the sleeve as well. They recently hired a genious game designer (Rasmus Hahr), a bit of a scoop for Funcom, since he is really good. He is working on the comng mmo title The Secret World, so that game does have a chance.

They are also working on several casual MMO's, which actually is a much much bigger market, than the quality client MMO market is. They chose to use the Unity engine for this, which is a huge scoop, since thats probably the best engine out there right now for casual MMO's and a very fast one to develop in, meaning they just might be ready  to launch their next mmo already in 2009.

Those two things, would get an investor hopeful, the hiring of Rasmus and the use of the right developing tool, Unity, making them able to launch something in 2009.

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When Funcom, makers of Anarchy Online and Age of Conan, decide to use Unity for their upcoming browser based MMO project, you know it has to be good.

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Originally posted by _Shadowmage

 

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Originally posted by Mitara
Funcom has new things up the sleeve as well. They recently hired a genious game designer (Rasmus Hahr), a bit of a scoop for Funcom, since he is really good. He is working on the comng mmo title The Secret World, so that game does have a chance.

They are also working on several casual MMO's, which actually is a much much bigger market, than the quality client MMO market is. They chose to use the Unity engine for this, which is a huge scoop, since thats probably the best engine out there right now for casual MMO's and a very fast one to develop in, meaning they just might be ready  to launch their next mmo already in 2009.

Those two things, would get an investor hopeful, the hiring of Rasmus and the use of the right developing tool, Unity, making them able to launch something in 2009.

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Wow - just wow. Can I have what you are smoking.

Now I dont claim to know everyone who is anyone in game development, so I googled your genius developer. The highest rated (and only link) for this genius - is the very thread I am posting in.

As for your claim that they scooped the best engine out there - Unity's claim to fame for being a great engine is that Funcom are using it.

 

 

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When Funcom, makers of Anarchy Online and Age of Conan, decide to use Unity for their upcoming browser based MMO project, you know it has to be good.

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Thats a catch 22. Funcom must be in a good position as they are using the best engine - which is the best engine because funcom are using it!

Darn - why wont my stockbroker answer the phone - I want to sell my house and buy funcom shares. It must be a great investment since the 4 leading stock broking companies in the world say its a great buy. /sarcasm

 

So from what I'm reading in this thread, the fans here aren't really fans of AOC anymore(since it sounds like they all agree it has plummeting subscribers), instead they are trying to prop up 'funcom' the company now.

Originally posted by Bill_pull

Originally posted by _Shadowmage

 

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Originally posted by Mitara
Funcom has new things up the sleeve as well. They recently hired a genious game designer (Rasmus Hahr), a bit of a scoop for Funcom, since he is really good. He is working on the comng mmo title The Secret World, so that game does have a chance.

They are also working on several casual MMO's, which actually is a much much bigger market, than the quality client MMO market is. They chose to use the Unity engine for this, which is a huge scoop, since thats probably the best engine out there right now for casual MMO's and a very fast one to develop in, meaning they just might be ready  to launch their next mmo already in 2009.

Those two things, would get an investor hopeful, the hiring of Rasmus and the use of the right developing tool, Unity, making them able to launch something in 2009.

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Wow - just wow. Can I have what you are smoking.

Now I dont claim to know everyone who is anyone in game development, so I googled your genius developer. The highest rated (and only link) for this genius - is the very thread I am posting in.

As for your claim that they scooped the best engine out there - Unity's claim to fame for being a great engine is that Funcom are using it.

 

 

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When Funcom, makers of Anarchy Online and Age of Conan, decide to use Unity for their upcoming browser based MMO project, you know it has to be good.

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Thats a catch 22. Funcom must be in a good position as they are using the best engine - which is the best engine because funcom are using it!

Darn - why wont my stockbroker answer the phone - I want to sell my house and buy funcom shares. It must be a great investment since the 4 leading stock broking companies in the world say its a great buy. /sarcasm

 

 

So from what I'm reading in this thread, the fans here aren't really fans of AOC anymore(since it sounds like they all agree it has plummeting subscribers), instead they are trying to prop up 'funcom' the company now.

I don't think anyone have talked about subscription in this thread till your post, so it's a bit off topic. My question was, what are the Real Life Investors and Analysts doing wrong since they have absolute opposite opinion polarity compared to some of the finacial experts here in MMORPG. Or visa versa, what are our mmorpg finance people doing wrong? Nobody have really answered this still. I am thoroughly disapointed in our own peoples ability to answer spot on this question. You all answer, well FC went down a bunch last year and that's the end of the reflection really. It is irrelevant how much it went down last year, I wonder why some people think it now will go a bunch up after it already have gone up >50% this year (I think statements as FC will double can be called a bunch).

This is last time I try to bring the thread back on topic, as this is really not that important. But I am baffled over your ability to read, comprehend and answer rather well defined questions? It's up to you guys to speak a bit about whats going on NOW and not last year.

Originally posted by Assasinated

 

I don't think anyone have talked about subscription in this thread till your post, so it's a bit off topic. My question was, what are the Real Life Investors and Analysts doing wrong since they have absolute opposite opinion polarity compared to some of the finacial experts here in MMORPG. Or visa versa, what are our mmorpg finance people doing wrong? Nobody have really answered this still. I am thoroughly disapointed in our own peoples ability to answer spot on this question. You all answer, well FC went down a bunch last year and that's the end of the reflection really. It is irrelevant how much it went down last year, I wonder why some people think it now will go a bunch up after it already have gone up >50% this year (I think statements as FC will double can be called a bunch).

This is last time I try to bring the thread back on topic, as this is really not that important. But I am baffled over your ability to read, comprehend and answer rather well defined questions? It's up to you guys to speak a bit about whats going on NOW and not last year.

You found 3-4 people suggesting FC as a choice TO BUY AS A PENNY STOCK *  (i.e.low buy-in,  high risk), how many analysts do you think there are working world wide?  50,000, 100,000, 300,000 ? You found a couple people who are saying "Hey if your looking for a big gamble why not try out FunCom."

It seems like your question has more to do with your limited knowledge of how stocks and the market work, if you spend the time educating yourself on the subject I think the answer will become self evident. You will not find a single legitimate Analyst in the world telling you to build your portfolio around Penny Stocks.

* From Wikipedia "Penny Stock - High-risk investments These risks include limited liquidity, lack of financial reporting, and fraud. Legitimate information on penny stock companies can be difficult to find and a stock can be easily manipulated"

The total amount of Funcom shares that traded hands today was $15,000 USD.   Some guy down my street bought a new car, and it was a bigger change in money than an entire day of Funcom stock trades.   This stock is so far off the radar of EVERYONE, that I don't think anyone but someone living next to Funcom HQ's even knows it's a publicly traded company.

Penny stocks are notorious for volatility..  One buy order can send the stock up 20%.   A few hours later a sell order sends it back down 20%.  Do you know that pension funds, mutual funds and banks are forbidden to even buy junk stocks?  Do you know why?  Because it isn't considered investing.. it's more like flipping a coin.    Don't believe me?  Ask the 'insider' who bought the stock 6 months ago at $15

Unfinished, you are just rude as if you feel I am picking a fight. Well I am not. Look, it's just a few hours since I made the post above. I can still remember what is says, it says 4 analysts (not less) and I copied the text to you as a proof (you refer to this as 2-3  analysts). Also the text says very clearly that some of them indeed made FunCom part of their portefolio. Now if you gonna be angry and rude because I point out that you and the other experts consistently don't talk about the topic, then so be it. I'm not gonna join you in the fight you are trying to pick here. Why are you getting angry?

Bill, i did not get your point.

MMORPG, unless somebody else that have something usefull to say stops by, I suggest you just close this thread. I give up trying to get something usefull out of this.

I suggest you stop getting annoyed at people trying to answer your question.

Also you found four analysts that recommend the stock. Big deal - do any of them say why they recommend the stock? The one of your links I checked didnt say why they thought it was a good investment. So perhaps you should be asking them why they think its so good - instead of asking us why we think they are wrong.

The article from Reuters doesnt sound favorable

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Shares in Norwegian computer game maker Funcom (FUNCOM.OL) fall 10.4 percent after it takes impairment charges of $22.8 million in the fourth-quarter, mainly to reflect lower revenues than anticipated from the online computer game 'Age of Conan'.

Analyst Fredrik Thoresen at DnB NOR Markets says comments from Funcom suggest interest in the game is levelling off.

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They could only find two brokers who would comment on the stock - and both are neutral.

http://cincinnati.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/othercities/triangle/stories/2009/02/23/daily20.html which says they lost 58cents for every share issued in the 4th qtr, their Chief Finance Officer left etc. Sound real promising.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=FUNCOM.OL yet another link that shows no brokers recommending buying this stock.

So perhaps its a bit of a national pride thing.

I supplyed you with 2 reasons I have been given by current investors, only to see people like Shadowmage, curring my post down. I do understand, its very clear from the wording shadowmage is using, that he is on some kind of crusade against Funcom. I cant blame him for not liking Funcom, I dont like them much either. I can blame him for not being serious...

Originally posted by Assasinated

Unfinished, you are just rude as if you feel I am picking a fight. Well I am not. Look, it's just a few hours since I made the post above. I can still remember what is says, it says 4 analysts (not less) and I copied the text to you as a proof (you refer to this as 2-3  analysts). Also the text says very clearly that some of them indeed made FunCom part of their portefolio. Now if you gonna be angry and rude because I point out that you and the other experts consistently don't talk about the topic, then so be it. I'm not gonna join you in the fight you are trying to pick here. Why are you getting angry?

Bill, i did not get your point.

MMORPG, unless somebody else that have something usefull to say stops by, I suggest you just close this thread. I give up trying to get something usefull out of this.

On the internet, the angry tone of voice you are claiming to hear is your own imagination.

Did you even bother to read the link to Wiki on what a Penny Stock is? You claimed to want help understanding, many here have tried, and you keep saying you still don't understand. I don't know what more we can do to try to help.

If you are going to take offense to every answer in life that you don't want to hear, you are in for a rough road.

Originally posted by Assasinated

Unfinished, you are just rude as if you feel I am picking a fight. Well I am not. Look, it's just a few hours since I made the post above. I can still remember what is says, it says 4 analysts (not less) and I copied the text to you as a proof (you refer to this as 2-3  analysts). Also the text says very clearly that some of them indeed made FunCom part of their portefolio. Now if you gonna be angry and rude because I point out that you and the other experts consistently don't talk about the topic, then so be it. I'm not gonna join you in the fight you are trying to pick here. Why are you getting angry?

Bill, i did not get your point.

MMORPG, unless somebody else that have something usefull to say stops by, I suggest you just close this thread. I give up trying to get something usefull out of this.

If they made Funcom part of their portfolio they are poor investors.  Any long-term return on Funcom is a gamble based on a company that has never produced a successful MMO and had its revenue drop around 60% last quarter. 

The MMORPG model is built on a liberal supply of credit cards.  Due to the constriction in discretionary credit that is going to happen over the next year, that is going to affect EVERY mmo.  And MMO's that are underwater (meaning losing money) are the ones in the most vulnerable position. 

Many companies can get away with 100,000 subscriptions and be golden.  Perhaps Funcom can too if it fires 250 of its employees.  But that type of contraction will crush the stock value and because Funcom is public they wont do it.

Instead they are going to chase their tail with the world's most God awful idea for an MMO: "The Secret World".  It is probably the worst MMO idea out there and has about the same chance of success as "Imperator" did.  

So the course of events will go something like this:  They are going to continue to support AoC and they are going to develop "The Secret World".  The Secret World, due to funding issues, will be released early in late 2010 and due to no money for advertising (and a retarded concept) will fall flat on its face.  Funcom's only decent IP (AoC for sure, and Dreamfall and AO at nominal prices) will be bought up as Funcom goes under. 

If it wasn't real life it would actually be funny.  As it stands it is sad and any investor who thinks AoC is going to grow obviously never played it.  Successful MMOs all have a hardcore playerbase (not fanbois) and AoC has none.  There is nothing to do in the game other than flutter around with no purpose and no goals.  Sure Funcom can keep AoC open and develop it with its bankroll, but every dollar it spends now has diminishing returns and works towards Funcom's earlier demise.

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Originally posted by Mitara
I supplyed you with 2 reasons I have been given by current investors, only to see people like Shadowmage, curring my post down. I do understand, its very clear from the wording shadowmage is using, that he is on some kind of crusade against Funcom. I cant blame him for not liking Funcom, I dont like them much either. I can blame him for not being serious...

cry me a river. Instead of claiming to be the victim of a crusade, how about posting some links to back up the unfounded assertions you made in your post.

Here I will remind you
Funcom has new things up the sleeve as well. They recently hired a genious game designer (Rasmus Hahr), a bit of a scoop for Funcom, since he is really good.

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