Originally posted by Litigator_AB

 

Can you provide a copy or reference to your special mail from Olav so that we can forward it to Oslo stock exchange. They probably want to stop public trade of FC while launching an investigation of the leaked information.

A CFO can't just send a friendly mail to your helsinki friend and give hints on guiding for Q12009. Thats insider trade and is only likely if mister Olav flirts with the idea of getting jailtime.

Edit: Ohh by the way, I think you forgot Box revenue for 1C company sales of boxes in Russia and Polland. 150000 boxes *50 $ *25%= 1.87 Mill $. Just a minor 2 Mill $ detail  . Ohh and still waiting on a copy of that mail from Olavs mail to your friend in Helsinki.

 

Well since I am not getting an answer from you OP I'm just going to assume you are just BSing. Either way what you have to comprehend is that posts like this is stuff you easily can get in trouble for (for real). It is not a problem if your posts are just intended to be a troll, but if you also buy and sell stocks (which I saw you mention in a different post) you are on thin ice. I'll trust you yourself know why. Cheers

www.oslobors.no/ob/kontakt

 

The OP (namely me) has a job and only checks the forums on occasion.  So here is your belated update:

#1:  It is only insider trading if he provided the information to me (or you or whoever) to the exclusion of others.  The only logical conclusion is that this information has been provided through the appropriate channels to stockholders and Oslobors. 

#2:  Polish and Russian game sales did not happen in October-December.  This is Q4-08 we are speaking of, not Q1-09.  The only Q1-09 info we have is in regards to guidance (meaning they must think Russia and Poland are a bust).

#3:  I have no financial interest in Funcom at the moment.  I haven't since the summer.

Lit

 

Nononono... I have no interest in your other fluff. Reference to your special mail, that you base this whole thread on. REFERENCE?

Originally posted by Conza

Originally posted by Litigator_AB

The OP (namely me) has a job and only checks the forums on occasion.  So here is your belated update:

#1:  It is only insider trading if he provided the information to me (or you or whoever) to the exclusion of others.  The only logical conclusion is that this information has been provided through the appropriate channels to stockholders and Oslobors. 

#2:  Polish and Russian game sales did not happen in October-December.  This is Q4-08 we are speaking of, not Q1-09.  The only Q1-09 info we have is in regards to guidance (meaning they must think Russia and Poland are a bust).

#3:  I have no financial interest in Funcom at the moment.  I haven't since the summer.

Lit

 

Nononono... I have no interest in your other fluff. Reference to your special mail, that you base this whole thread on. REFERENCE?

Seems like you and your "insider trading conspiracy theory" got owned big time by his "fluff"

Why would he send you any copies of his email? You think he or anyone else here cares if some random AoC fanboi believes him or not?

Originally posted by Litigator_AB

 Funcom is coming in at guidance for Q4 08 and will be "slightly lower" Q1 09.  He did not comment past that in the email.  

However:

Funcom made 18 million last quarter.  Q4 08 guidance was between 8-10 million US.  So essentially Funcom lost approximately 50% of its revenue.  

I did not get clarification of what slightly lower meant but I'm assuming that means the guidance numbers are going to have an upper limit of the lower limit from Q4 08 with at least a 2 million US window...so I'm expecting 6-8 million USD.  

Dismal numbers, but still better than I thought Funcom would do (unless they just technically met expectations...8.2 million USD is pretty woeful.  9.5 million would be more respectable and means they stopped the subscriber bleed.

A lower Q1 09 number is to be expected simply due to the loss of 6 month subscriptions coming off the books.  

Questions and comments?

Lit

Are there still so many interested in all this rubbish? i mean the games not bad but o moved on as not enough to do in it. but clicked on this just to see if there are still any who are obsessed with proving it a failure still and whoah! there are lol! this is great news if i want to buy shares in this company...but i'm a gameplayer and really it dont mean crap to me. either play it or dont.

What is interesting is the platform you choose to post on though! have some confidence mate and take it somewhere where you will get a good argument about these things.

Originally posted by shukes33 

Are there still so many interested in all this rubbish? i mean the games not bad but o moved on as not enough to do in it. but clicked on this just to see if there are still any who are obsessed with proving it a failure still and whoah! there are lol! this is great news if i want to buy shares in this company...but i'm a gameplayer and really it dont mean crap to me. either play it or dont.

What is interesting is the platform you choose to post on though! have some confidence mate and take it somewhere where you will get a good argument about these things.

Each to their own , I find this thread a lot more interesting than than most on this forum. You can only read so many infomercial threads, which is about all the forum would consist of if it were up to the three amigos. As far as the finances affecting you as a gamer ask just anyone who ever played E&B , ACII, or Hellgate London.

Monday is going to be interesting, but as has been pointed out, the Q1 report on May 15 will be the tell all and the investor meeting on 23 May should turn out to be very interesting

Originally posted by Litigator_AB

 

Can you provide a copy or reference to your special mail from Olav so that we can forward it to Oslo stock exchange. They probably want to stop public trade of FC while launching an investigation of the leaked information.

A CFO can't just send a friendly mail to your helsinki friend and give hints on guiding for Q12009. Thats insider trade and is only likely if mister Olav flirts with the idea of getting jailtime.

Edit: Ohh by the way, I think you forgot Box revenue for 1C company sales of boxes in Russia and Polland. 150000 boxes *50 $ *25%= 1.87 Mill $. Just a minor 2 Mill $ detail  . Ohh and still waiting on a copy of that mail from Olavs mail to your friend in Helsinki.

 

Well since I am not getting an answer from you OP I'm just going to assume you are just BSing. Either way what you have to comprehend is that posts like this is stuff you easily can get in trouble for (for real). It is not a problem if your posts are just intended to be a troll, but if you also buy and sell stocks (which I saw you mention in a different post) you are on thin ice. I'll trust you yourself know why. Cheers

www.oslobors.no/ob/kontakt

 

The OP (namely me) has a job and only checks the forums on occasion.  So here is your belated update:

#1:  It is only insider trading if he provided the information to me (or you or whoever) to the exclusion of others.  The only logical conclusion is that this information has been provided through the appropriate channels to stockholders and Oslobors. 

#2:  Polish and Russian game sales did not happen in October-December.  This is Q4-08 we are speaking of, not Q1-09.  The only Q1-09 info we have is in regards to guidance (meaning they must think Russia and Poland are a bust).

#3:  I have no financial interest in Funcom at the moment.  I haven't since the summer.

Lit

 

#1 PROVES that Litigator is lying. The information he used to start this post HAS NOT BEEN DISCLOSED TO THE MARKET! Below is the list of news disclosed to the market.
http://www.oslobors.no/markedsaktivitet/stockNews?newt__ticker=FUNCOM&newt__menuCtx=1.1.17 

Now, since we have proved his lies, please ask youreselves why? Why on earth would he lie about this?

He has some agenda and wants to create a negative hype around the funcom stock.

Originally posted by Jackdog

Originally posted by shukes33 

Are there still so many interested in all this rubbish? i mean the games not bad but o moved on as not enough to do in it. but clicked on this just to see if there are still any who are obsessed with proving it a failure still and whoah! there are lol! this is great news if i want to buy shares in this company...but i'm a gameplayer and really it dont mean crap to me. either play it or dont.

What is interesting is the platform you choose to post on though! have some confidence mate and take it somewhere where you will get a good argument about these things.

Each to their own , I find this thread a lot more interesting than than most on this forum. You can only read so many infomercial threads, which is about all the forum would consist of if it were up to the three amigos. As far as the finances affecting you as a gamer ask just anyone who ever played E&B , ACII, or Hellgate London.

Monday is going to be interesting, but as has been pointed out, the Q1 report on May 15 will be the tell all and the investor meeting on 23 May should turn out to be very interesting

Sorry mate i think you misunderstood what i meant.

Why start a thread like this on a gaming site that's designed to talk about games and gameplay. if we talk about AoC as far as i can read, subs are growing, game is getting better and fixes/content seems to be planned too. But if we talk about financial circumstances of the company behind the game...then why not take it to a more suitable place thats all? somewhere where people are qualified to talk about it more ( not to say people here arent ) on maybe a financil forum? if people want to discuss it then your right, who am i to stop them. and i do apologise for the snap reaction i made, it just suprised me people havent tired of it by now that's all.

Originally posted by shukes33

 

Sorry mate i think you misunderstood what i meant.

Why start a thread like this on a gaming site that's designed to talk about games and gameplay.

My point is the game and gameplay is directly related to the finances of the company. No money = no further devlopment.  We might just have to agree to disagree here because far as I can see they are directly related. Also if he game is doing a turn around the comapnies reports should reflect that.

Point taken :)

i was a bit snappy and after reading what i wrote first time round i'm kinda embarrassed. i dont have any interest in it to be honest but that's not to say anyone who has is wrong or right :) but i must say, AoC doesnt look anywhere near where it will be closing because of financial reasons yet....not even close.

Originally posted by Conza

Originally posted by Litigator_AB

 

Can you provide a copy or reference to your special mail from Olav so that we can forward it to Oslo stock exchange. They probably want to stop public trade of FC while launching an investigation of the leaked information.

A CFO can't just send a friendly mail to your helsinki friend and give hints on guiding for Q12009. Thats insider trade and is only likely if mister Olav flirts with the idea of getting jailtime.

Edit: Ohh by the way, I think you forgot Box revenue for 1C company sales of boxes in Russia and Polland. 150000 boxes *50 $ *25%= 1.87 Mill $. Just a minor 2 Mill $ detail  . Ohh and still waiting on a copy of that mail from Olavs mail to your friend in Helsinki.

 

Well since I am not getting an answer from you OP I'm just going to assume you are just BSing. Either way what you have to comprehend is that posts like this is stuff you easily can get in trouble for (for real). It is not a problem if your posts are just intended to be a troll, but if you also buy and sell stocks (which I saw you mention in a different post) you are on thin ice. I'll trust you yourself know why. Cheers

www.oslobors.no/ob/kontakt

 

The OP (namely me) has a job and only checks the forums on occasion.  So here is your belated update:

#1:  It is only insider trading if he provided the information to me (or you or whoever) to the exclusion of others.  The only logical conclusion is that this information has been provided through the appropriate channels to stockholders and Oslobors. 

#2:  Polish and Russian game sales did not happen in October-December.  This is Q4-08 we are speaking of, not Q1-09.  The only Q1-09 info we have is in regards to guidance (meaning they must think Russia and Poland are a bust).

#3:  I have no financial interest in Funcom at the moment.  I haven't since the summer.

Lit

 

 

Nononono... I have no interest in your other fluff. Reference to your special mail, that you base this whole thread on. REFERENCE?

No reference, its a FAKE. He is only lying.

He probably has his own agenda.

Seems like OP was right on the Info and wrong on the conclusion.

Two things here. Funcom stock is not dead, nor is it thriving either. Its hanging in there and there is hope that growth will take place on AoC during 2009. There were no big surprises in the figures and stock is now slightly above 4 NOK (up from 2.50 in November, Down from 55 in June)

Secondly: OP got hold of insider information and posted it on this forum. This is illegal!!!!

Originally posted by Aceundor

Seems like OP was right on the Info and wrong on the conclusion.

Two things here. Funcom stock is not dead, nor is it thriving either. Its hanging in there and there is hope that growth will take place on AoC during 2009. There were no big surprises in the figures and stock is now slightly above 4 NOK (up from 2.50 in November, Down from 55 in June)

Secondly: OP got hold of insider information and posted it on this forum. This is illegal!!!!

The biggest point not being made is AoC launched in Poland and Russia just this year (Jan. and Feb respectively). This is not being taken into account for forward looking statements.

Korea if I am not mistaken has already been sold, with 50% rights to profits there. And as we can see, people are interested enough that all it will take is a winback program (or trial) to bring in new customers who bought boxes but did like me and left due to the launch mess.

In all honesty, all I can do is laugh at the doomsayers who kept spouting...Funcom will be dead in December...oh wait...January...sorry, I meant February...

And the best part? The game is hella fun, and I am having a blast...and that is what matters most.

Originally posted by openedge1

The biggest point not being made is AoC launched in Poland and Russia just this year (Jan. and Feb respectively). This is not being taken into account for forward looking statements.

Korea if I am not mistaken has already been sold, with 50% rights to profits there. And as we can see, people are interested enough that all it will take is a winback program (or trial) to bring in new customers who bought boxes but did like me and left due to the launch mess.

In all honesty, all I can do is laugh at the doomsayers who kept spouting...Funcom will be dead in December...oh wait...January...sorry, I meant February...

And the best part? The game is hella fun, and I am having a blast...and that is what matters most.

I don't think Funcom will be dead anytime soon. The company has operated on a loss for years and that is not a problem, due to some of the financial backing they have. Their cash reserve is good at the moment, according to the statement and they have enough money to continue work on AoC as well as finish TSW and other games in development.

However, your statements are wrong in 2 respects:

- Funcom estimates 6 to 8 million revenue in Q1 2009. there has to be at least a ROUGH estimate of their Poland and Russia revenue included in that. Poland and Russia was announced a while ago, and so it HAS to be in the forcast for Q1 2009.

- as you mention the Korean enterprise has already paid 50% up front - this is a KNOWN figure and therefor HAS to be in the Q1 2009 forecast.

Considering this, and then looking at the fact that Funcom only forecasts about 6 to 8 million for Q1 2009 (with increased revenue from Anarchy Online due to new booster pack), it will mean that subscription numbers for AoC will be lower than Q4 2008, where revenue was 8.7 million USD (without money from Korea, Poland and Russia).

You are right though - you enjoy the game and that IS the most important thing to you. As it should be.

I think AoC will survive, i don't think Darkfall will have any impact at all - while it will appeal to some PvP fantatics, those PvP fantatics will have left AoC a long time ago, so i doubt there will be many people leaving when Darkfall opens up. Other than that, there is nothing else coming out that's a major competitor, so it really is down to the Funcom team to generate more content now and keep people interested in the game. If they retain upwards of 100k subscribers, the game will be profitable at some point (same as AO was).

Originally posted by ZeGerman1942

However, your statements are wrong in 2 respects:

- Funcom estimates 6 to 8 million revenue in Q1 2009. there has to be at least a ROUGH estimate of their Poland and Russia revenue included in that. Poland and Russia was announced a while ago, and so it HAS to be in the forcast for Q1 2009.

- as you mention the Korean enterprise has already paid 50% up front - this is a KNOWN figure and therefor HAS to be in the Q1 2009 forecast.

Considering this, and then looking at the fact that Funcom only forecasts about 6 to 8 million for Q1 2009 (with increased revenue from Anarchy Online due to new booster pack), it will mean that subscription numbers for AoC will be lower than Q4 2008, where revenue was 8.7 million USD (without money from Korea, Poland and Russia).

Thanks for this update. Believe me, I am not a "money" guy, and all this talk is annoying when we are trying to discuss how a game plays.

 You are right though - you enjoy the game and that IS the most important thing to you. As it should be.

Big agree

I think AoC will survive, i don't think Darkfall will have any impact at all - while it will appeal to some PvP fantatics, those PvP fantatics will have left AoC a long time ago, so i doubt there will be many people leaving when Darkfall opens up. Other than that, there is nothing else coming out that's a major competitor, so it really is down to the Funcom team to generate more content now and keep people interested in the game. If they retain upwards of 100k subscribers, the game will be profitable at some point (same as AO was).

And the horizon looks weak for a major MMO Fantasy. Aion will not pop until the fall, and anything else on the list has either a small following (Darkfall) or is being looked at suspiciously (TCoS...I mean...where the heck is this game?)

Thanks

Originally posted by ZeGerman1942

Originally posted by openedge1

The biggest point not being made is AoC launched in Poland and Russia just this year (Jan. and Feb respectively). This is not being taken into account for forward looking statements.

Korea if I am not mistaken has already been sold, with 50% rights to profits there. And as we can see, people are interested enough that all it will take is a winback program (or trial) to bring in new customers who bought boxes but did like me and left due to the launch mess.

In all honesty, all I can do is laugh at the doomsayers who kept spouting...Funcom will be dead in December...oh wait...January...sorry, I meant February...

And the best part? The game is hella fun, and I am having a blast...and that is what matters most.

 

I don't think Funcom will be dead anytime soon. The company has operated on a loss for years and that is not a problem, due to some of the financial backing they have. Their cash reserve is good at the moment, according to the statement and they have enough money to continue work on AoC as well as finish TSW and other games in development.

However, your statements are wrong in 2 respects:

- Funcom estimates 6 to 8 million revenue in Q1 2009. there has to be at least a ROUGH estimate of their Poland and Russia revenue included in that. Poland and Russia was announced a while ago, and so it HAS to be in the forcast for Q1 2009.

- as you mention the Korean enterprise has already paid 50% up front - this is a KNOWN figure and therefor HAS to be in the Q1 2009 forecast.

Considering this, and then looking at the fact that Funcom only forecasts about 6 to 8 million for Q1 2009 (with increased revenue from Anarchy Online due to new booster pack), it will mean that subscription numbers for AoC will be lower than Q4 2008, where revenue was 8.7 million USD (without money from Korea, Poland and Russia).

 

You are right though - you enjoy the game and that IS the most important thing to you. As it should be.

I think AoC will survive, i don't think Darkfall will have any impact at all - while it will appeal to some PvP fantatics, those PvP fantatics will have left AoC a long time ago, so i doubt there will be many people leaving when Darkfall opens up. Other than that, there is nothing else coming out that's a major competitor, so it really is down to the Funcom team to generate more content now and keep people interested in the game. If they retain upwards of 100k subscribers, the game will be profitable at some point (same as AO was).

You said you don't think Funcom is in trouble because they have been operating at a loss for the past few years.  That is true, but what you failed to mention is that it paid it's bills the last few years by borrowing money against the release of AOC.  That option is no longer available.  It is highly unlikely that Funcom will be able to borrow more money for two reasons.  First, they now have a history of two failed games (finanically)...banks will be very unlikely to think they will hit a homerun on their next game.  Secondly, banks are strapped right now, much more than they were when Funcom was borrowing to make AOC.

Originally posted by rogert4221

 

You said you don't think Funcom is in trouble because they have been operating at a loss for the past few years.  That is true, but what you failed to mention is that it paid it's bills the last few years by borrowing money against the release of AOC.  That option is no longer available.  It is highly unlikely that Funcom will be able to borrow more money for two reasons.  First, they now have a history of two failed games (finanically)...banks will be very unlikely to think they will hit a homerun on their next game.  Secondly, banks are strapped right now, much more than they were when Funcom was borrowing to make AOC.

Age of Conan is not a financial failure yet. The game has not even been out for a year. Is it underperforming? Certainly, no doubt about that - and everyone knows why that is (hype, launching before it was ready, massive bugs and cut/unfinished features).

But after the server merges, operating cost of the game will be reduced drastically and revenue from the game will be similar to what it was (maybe slightly lower), so as long as the game keeps a certain amount of subscribers it will eventually break even and then make a profit.

Look at AO. It took years to break even and make a profit, but it now DOES make a profit - which means all the debt and costs it accumulated have been paid off. Age of Conan can do the same - the less subcribers it has, the longer it will take, but it can (and i believe it will) break even and make a profit.

It is a massive shame that the game turned out the way it did and that not more people are playing it, but as much as people hate the game and hate some people behind the game, saying it is going to be a fincial failure is wrong.

It will certainly not be good news for Funcom and securing financing in these times will be harder, but it's not necessarily banks where the money for Funcom is coming from either.

AOC is down about 33M right now.   I agree that the game may become profitable on a quarterly basis pretty soon, but it will never earn back the amount it cost to make... and it will ONLY become profitable on a quarterly basis if it continues to cut developers.  In the financial report, they said their overall employees dropped from 318 to 302, but they also said TSW staff increased... this means the staff of AOC has been cut quite a bit... this means less content being added, buggier and at a slower pace.

Basically you are right.. they hope AOC will become like AO..... profitable on a quarterly basis, but never earning back the price it took to make the game.

If I spend 50,000 to start a restaurant and I make a profit of 100 per year.... is that good?  Yeah, you are 'making' 100 per year, but you are never going to make back the 50,000 you spent to build the restaurant.

well i guess we have to disagree there. I think Age of Conan will make back the money it has cost to make :)

but i think that's fair enough - we don't have to agree on this :)

Originally posted by ZeGerman1942

well i guess we have to disagree there. I think Age of Conan will make back the money it has cost to make :)

but i think that's fair enough - we don't have to agree on this :)

Interesting turn of events...

http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/2660203/thread/224601

CEO buys up stocks!

Originally posted by Aceundor

Seems like OP was right on the Info and wrong on the conclusion.

Two things here. Funcom stock is not dead, nor is it thriving either. Its hanging in there and there is hope that growth will take place on AoC during 2009. There were no big surprises in the figures and stock is now slightly above 4 NOK (up from 2.50 in November, Down from 55 in June)

Secondly: OP got hold of insider information and posted it on this forum. This is illegal!!!!

What I posted was not illegal...it was available to the markets when I posted it.  If Olav posted it early (or mistook his fiduciary duty) that is not my fault.

However, he has resigned...perhaps there was some bad blood and some internal fighting?  Shrug.

Anyways any detractors are obviously a bit silent right now as my information was bang on and indeed the news is not good.  They can try and make it sound as good as they want, but in the end they are at a playing population of 120k or less as of now.  Because there were at least 20k worth of subscribers who had signed up in July 08 who are obviously not going to come back.

Lit

Originally posted by Litigator_AB

 

I did not get clarification of what slightly lower meant but I'm assuming that means the guidance numbers are going to have an upper limit of the lower limit from Q4 08 with at least a 2 million US window...so I'm expecting 6-8 million USD.  

I just read the report.  It seems my prognostication regarding future revenue was 100% accurate (literally). Hate to say it but Funcom double speak has become easy to parse.

My subscription model worked perfectly.  We can say with some confidence that AoC had 110-115k active players as of Oct-Dec last year and that that bleed has stopped substantially.  Ultimately though the game is still anticipated to lose subscribers this next quarter.

In other words, Age of Conan is looking at less than 100k by the time of the next presentation.  Full stop.

Lit