The primary problem with subscription figures is that if they are low, publishing them can spell death for a perfectly good game.

AoC is in a difficult position. Despite a dire launch the game in now significantly improved and is, in my opinion, one of the best games in the genre. However, it probably has a low number of subs at present due to the poor launch, although this figure must certainly be increasing given the current state-of-the-game.

Funcom has to fight 3 battles:

a) It needs to continue to improve and develop the game, which it is evidently doing.

b) It needs to encourage players to play it not put them off. In a fickle market, players won’t invest time and to a lesser extent money in a game that they think everyone is leaving, regardless of how good it is. So publishing subscription figures would be an idiotic move.

c) It needs to mitigate the damage done by trolls and haters on forums like these. Most of the people likely to play and enjoy this game no doubt visit forums like this one. To find a game you are considering gets verbally hammered with abuse by vindictive trolls every time it’s mentioned is extremely off-putting. Even if your interested enough to try the game and make up your own mind you know others won’t be that persistent, so you might not stick at it even if you enjoy it. It’s a vicious circle. AoC suffers from haters more than any other game I’ve played. Much of this was deserved, ‘was’ being the key word.

The last problem is the biggest. In my opinion, it’s the negative attitude that is continuously spread amongst gamers which poses the biggest threat and challenge to this industry as a whole. If you were to assess every post ever made on this site and rank it as either positive, negative or neutral the percentages would probably appear as follows:

Positive = 2%
Neutral = 8%
Negative = 90%

For every happy player who has fun playing whatever MMO, there are another 45 who will slam them, their game and everything they stand for, ‘just because’.

In a way, I’m a fool to even respond to this post and bump it's speculative and detrimental title back up onto the front page of this site. But who knows, maybe people will read my post and agree with me.
 

Originally posted by Aryas

The primary problem with subscription figures is that if they are low, publishing them can spell death for a perfectly good game.

AoC is in a difficult position. Despite a dire launch the game in now significantly improved and is, in my opinion, one of the best games in the genre. However, it probably has a low number of subs at present due to the poor launch, although this figure must certainly be increasing given the current state-of-the-game.

Funcom has to fight 3 battles:

a) It needs to continue to improve and develop the game, which it is evidently doing.

b) It needs to encourage players to play it not put them off. In a fickle market, players won’t invest time and to a lesser extent money in a game that they think everyone is leaving, regardless of how good it is. So publishing subscription figures would be an idiotic move.

c) It needs to mitigate the damage done by trolls and haters on forums like these. Most of the people likely to play and enjoy this game no doubt visit forums like this one. To find a game you are considering gets verbally hammered with abuse by vindictive trolls every time it’s mentioned is extremely off-putting. Even if your interested enough to try the game and make up your own mind you know others won’t be that persistent, so you might not stick at it even if you enjoy it. It’s a vicious circle. AoC suffers from haters more than any other game I’ve played. Much of this was deserved, ‘was’ being the key word.

The last problem is the biggest. In my opinion, it’s the negative attitude that is continuously spread amongst gamers which poses the biggest threat and challenge to this industry as a whole. If you were to assess every post ever made on this site and rank it as either positive, negative or neutral the percentages would probably appear as follows:

Positive = 2%
Neutral = 8%
Negative = 90%

For every happy player who has fun playing whatever MMO, there are another 45 who will slam them, their game and everything they stand for, ‘just because’.

In a way, I’m a fool to even respond to this post and bump it's speculative and detrimental title back up onto the front page of this site. But who knows, maybe people will read my post and agree with me.
 

I agree with this. Funcom is to blame for creating such a hateful community also. While people were running their mouths about the games issues, here was Funcom stating major success...and knowing it was NOT true.

But, I had faith in the game due to the fact that after playing it, I was spoiled. I did not want to go back to WoW, LOTRO and their stale gameplay, or play WAR and it's ugliness.

So, after the dust settled and Craig came on board to fix the game, I came back, and was impressed. I plan to stick it out and support their efforts.

Funcom learned humility during that time, and it shows.

There is no chest thumping now. And I wish the same would happen for the haters, and they would get of that mountain they are shouting from...

Good post, and cheers

Originally posted by sancher36

Originally posted by jposavatz

Originally posted by haggus71

The X-Fire numbers are inaccurate, at least as far as EVE and LotRO are concerned.  EVE has said they have a quarter million people playing, and LotRO has said 250-300k active.

Ind just ignore Avery.  Any thread with AoC will bring him out to wave the Funcom banner.

 

Quite possibly.  I hadn't heard those other numbers.  Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant. 

 

If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:

• EvE = 250,000 / 17,521 = 14.3
• LotRO = 300,000 / 19,559 = 15.3

(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3

And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:

• AoC = 5,278 * 20.3 = 107,143

Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.

Its all nothing but pure speculation, there is no sure way of knowing how many subscribers aoc has and how many have joined the game since things have improved over the last few months.
 

Simple splashing of mathmatics in posts will get you nowhere at all without having some idea at least, for all we know aoc could have around 300k plus. Trying to prove a point using imaginary figures people have dreamed up is a joke.

You know.. people keep saying " You can't do math with Xfire and come up with an accurate guess for subscribers"...    Well guess what...  Warhammer/EA  just proved, once again, that you can.  Anyone who followed Xfire  KNEW that it had about 300,000 subscribers on Dec 31st.. and they  KNOW it has about 250,000 right now.  They knew AOC had 400,000 players on June 30th and that Warhammer had 750,000 at launch and 400,000 a month later.  Every single time a game posts it's official numbers, xfire had already predicted it.

You have to be careful about 'one time' things though... like the Lotro(now) and Eve(dec) promotions, patches and other 'curiousities' and other one-time events that cause temporary inflated numbers.  But otherwise, the subscribers of the major mmorpgs seem to be consistent in their use of xfire. (about 1.5%-2% usage in the west).

it's just amazing that every time a company releases numbers, including AOC back in early summer, that it matches up exactly with what Xfire was saying.... yet 3 months afterwards, people will come back and say " you can't use xfire to predict anything'.

Eve 250,000
Warhammer  250,000 (now, not Dec 31st)
Lotro  200,000
AOC  100,000
WOW  5,500,000 ( west only)

Originally posted by Alandora

  

You know.. people keep saying " You can't do math with Xfire and come up with an accurate guess for subscribers"...    Well guess what...  Warhammer/EA  just proved, once again, that you can.  Anyone who followed Xfire  KNEW that it had about 300,000 subscribers on Dec 31st.. and they  KNOW it has about 250,000 right now.  They knew AOC had 400,000 players on June 30th and that Warhammer had 750,000 at launch and 400,000 a month later.  Every single time a game posts it's official numbers, xfire had already predicted it.

You have to be careful about 'one time' things though... like the Lotro(now) and Eve(dec) promotions, patches and other 'curiousities' and other one-time events that cause temporary inflated numbers.  But otherwise, the subscribers of the major mmorpgs seem to be consistent in their use of xfire. (about 1.5%-2% usage in the west).

it's just amazing that every time a company releases numbers, including AOC back in early summer, that it matches up exactly with what Xfire was saying.... yet 3 months afterwards, people will come back and say " you can't use xfire to predict anything'.

Eve 250,000
Warhammer  250,000 (now, not Dec 31st)
Lotro  200,000
AOC  100,000
WOW  5,500,000 ( west only)

Then you turn around and have a game which makes all of this data moot.

City of Heroes.

If we use this "fuzzy math" that someone has created, then CoH has a total of 48k users.

How can this be, when we know FOR a FACT that they have 125k as of the last NCSoft financial report. 

The game is only available in the US and EU, which Xfire tracks. So, this officially makes using Xfire math to calculate users a fallacy.

No one will ever know for sure. We can at least do "trends" with Xfire though...and that is UPWARDS for AoC.

Cheers

Originally posted by Aryas

 

c) It needs to mitigate the damage done by trolls and haters on forums like these. Most of the people likely to play and enjoy this game no doubt visit forums like this one. To find a game you are considering gets verbally hammered with abuse by vindictive trolls every time it’s mentioned is extremely off-putting. Even if your interested enough to try the game and make up your own mind you know others won’t be that persistent, so you might not stick at it even if you enjoy it. It’s a vicious circle. AoC suffers from haters more than any other game I’ve played. Much of this was deserved, ‘was’ being the key word.

The last problem is the biggest. In my opinion, it’s the negative attitude that is continuously spread amongst gamers which poses the biggest threat and challenge to this industry as a whole.

For every happy player who has fun playing whatever MMO, there are another 45 who will slam them, their game and everything they stand for, ‘just because’.

 

While I'd agree with your 3 points in terms of FC's challenges, I think it's neither fair or accurate to say that people are trashing the game "just because".  People had, and have, perfectly legit reasons for trashing the game, some of which you even elude to in this post.  People were sold a $60 bugfest that promised things at launch that almost a year later it hasn't delivered on.

I was there at the end of beta, looking at a potentially good game that was absolutely not ready for prime time.  I watched as they sold that same code on disks for 60+ bucks.  They deserve the thrashing they're getting from people, and it's up to them to turn that opinion around.

PS:  If this is the most trashed upon game you've ever played, you've obviously not played SWG.

After the merge the servers are packed with people, Even more than they where at launch.

This is my opinion and based on my gameplay from the Fury server.

Originally posted by mdkman

After the merge the servers are packed with people, Even more than they where at launch.

This is my opinion and based on my gameplay from the Fury server.

 

Can you think of any reason that might be true?

I'll help. If you have 10 people in 10 rooms= empty

10 people in one room= packed.

Time will tell if FC can lure people back, and retain them, so they can hit the internal numbers they are shooting for.

Originally posted by Aryas

The primary problem with subscription figures is that if they are low, publishing them can spell death for a perfectly good game.

AoC is in a difficult position. Despite a dire launch the game in now significantly improved and is, in my opinion, one of the best games in the genre. However, it probably has a low number of subs at present due to the poor launch, although this figure must certainly be increasing given the current state-of-the-game.

Funcom has to fight 3 battles:

a) It needs to continue to improve and develop the game, which it is evidently doing.

b) It needs to encourage players to play it not put them off. In a fickle market, players won’t invest time and to a lesser extent money in a game that they think everyone is leaving, regardless of how good it is. So publishing subscription figures would be an idiotic move.

c) It needs to mitigate the damage done by trolls and haters on forums like these. Most of the people likely to play and enjoy this game no doubt visit forums like this one. To find a game you are considering gets verbally hammered with abuse by vindictive trolls every time it’s mentioned is extremely off-putting. Even if your interested enough to try the game and make up your own mind you know others won’t be that persistent, so you might not stick at it even if you enjoy it. It’s a vicious circle. AoC suffers from haters more than any other game I’ve played. Much of this was deserved, ‘was’ being the key word.

The last problem is the biggest. In my opinion, it’s the negative attitude that is continuously spread amongst gamers which poses the biggest threat and challenge to this industry as a whole. If you were to assess every post ever made on this site and rank it as either positive, negative or neutral the percentages would probably appear as follows:

Positive = 2%
Neutral = 8%
Negative = 90%

For every happy player who has fun playing whatever MMO, there are another 45 who will slam them, their game and everything they stand for, ‘just because’.

In a way, I’m a fool to even respond to this post and bump it's speculative and detrimental title back up onto the front page of this site. But who knows, maybe people will read my post and agree with me.
 

They should hire you but sadly gaming companies would rather have people with very little busines sense, no PR experience and zero experience in dealing with real humans ans the negative emotions that their blunders produce.

Hopefully someday a company will get it right.

Originally posted by courtsdad

Originally posted by mdkman

After the merge the servers are packed with people, Even more than they where at launch.

This is my opinion and based on my gameplay from the Fury server.

 

 

Can you think of any reason that might be true?

 

I'll help. If you have 10 people in 10 rooms= empty

10 people in one room= packed.

Time will tell if FC can lure people back, and retain them, so they can hit the internal numbers they are shooting for.

 

Well no matter what, the merge was the right call todo and the servers are alive once again.

As for me, I will not return to AOC... I had my fun but i wish players that are sticking to it will get the patches they deserve.

And as for funcom i hope they drown in their own lies.

Originally posted by Unfinished

Originally posted by Inzra

They should have waited until dx10 was ready, but then we probably wouldn't have AoC launch until this year.

 

And would have kept a helluva lot more of it's day one customers. FC wouldn't have been labeled as 'two time losers' or 'liars and thieves', an earned reputation they will probably never get past

My guess is many gamer's will be much more skeptical about any title launched by any company** post-AoC, I'll bet pre-orders will be fewer, and 'pro' reviews won't carry as much weight, and launch days won't bring in crowds as large. I truly think AoC's launch will have a long lasting impact on how MMO companies advertise / hype, and decide when a title is 'launch ready'. FunCom has become a cautionary tale.

** Except Blizzard - and no I am not a fan

Well i would have waited for it another year, been happy too, but I reckon there was some money issues involved.

It's not like funcom is the only ones releasing buggy games though, or games that doesn't live up to expectations, so I wouldn't say Funcom is so much worse than others.

Afaik Vanguard, Light and Dark, Tabula rasa, and Warhammer to some extent.

Anyway a little skepticism never hurt anyone, people should be more descerning and not jump into a game that hasn't been reviewed. So I have no sympathy for those that have to be first online at launch and rush to endgame, they can blame themselves for not being more cautious, even if Funcom released AoC unfinished.

As for me i never saw anything gamebreaking, but there were times i got slightly annoyed ( the ambient sound bug hurt my ears a bit, but it was fixed by next patch)

After a full night of calculation using the same method you used.

I agree with your results and I can also forsee that Darkfall will have 15 million subs one week after launch.

Dont question my calculations, you wouldnt understand them for you see I did some very advanced math in high school. Stuff involving multipliactions and all that advanced stuff.

Originally posted by Inzra

It's not like funcom is the only ones releasing buggy games though, or games that doesn't live up to expectations, so I wouldn't say Funcom is so much worse than others.

Afaik Vanguard, Light and Dark, Tabula rasa, and Warhammer to some extent.

I think you make a very telling point , Age of Conan can be easily grouped with the most historic failures in the MMO genre.

Even if they have 150k subs. That is a healthy number. Lotro is doing fine and it has an estimated 50k to 80k population. IMO age of conans flaw is the lvl cap. Lvl 80 is fine but  not to start, I think you have to ease people into it. Other than that content is solid, graphics are excellent and it has a healthy population. So as long as it can keep over 100k and keep overhead low it will make money and thats why they made the game.

Even if it was only 100K that is 20 Million a Year! There isn't a publisher today that wouldn't kill for that type of Revenue!

Not to mention the initial box sales of 35 Million and Change, You guys are nuts!

If the OP's intention was to make AOC look bad he is an idiot.

Again, Any Publisher would be blessed to have 55 Million in Revenue!

Originally posted by Sacrificiall

Even if it was only 100K that is 20 Million a Year! There isn't a publisher today that wouldn't kill for that type of Revenue!

Not to mention the initial box sales of 35 Million and Change, You guys are nuts!

If the OP's intention was to make AOC look bad he is an idiot.

Again, Any Publisher would be blessed to have 55 Million in Revenue!

$20 mill anaually is gross revenue, many MMO devs claim 50% of a sub fee  goes to cover bandwidth, FC has more than 300 employees and offices in atleast 3 countries. FC also claims to have spent upwards of $40 mill on the games development.

Not to mention AoC retail box can now be bought for $5 and time cards for 50% of their face value.

Not the exactly a stellar financial picture atm. I'll leave their stock price out of it.

Originally posted by Unfinished

Not to mention AoC retail box can now be bought for $5 and time cards for 50% of their face value.

Please provide a link of time cards going 50% off their face value. All the sites I checked show 60 day time cards for 29.99 or very close to it.

Originally posted by Sevenwind

Originally posted by Unfinished

Not to mention AoC retail box can now be bought for $5 and time cards for 50% of their face value.

 

Please provide a link of time cards going 50% off their face value. All the sites I checked show 60 day time cards for 29.99 or very close to it.

I found one site selling them off for this price. They are just a no name store as well.

I do not think this is the issue. The poster is making it sound like AoC is the only game to do this. I know for a fact that LOTRO was just 9.99 after 6 months for the boxes, and they were pushing a special for 9.99 a month for returning players. Or new players could get 9.99 for 3 months bought in advance.

The fact is this is nothing new, and usually happens when a game has sold it's stock within enough of a range to have paid for the box sales...the rest equals pure profit.

In so many words, the poster believes this is doom, and this is not proof of that...unless of course you mark your game down to .99 cents (*cough* Tabula Rasa *cough*)...then you can start to say goodbye to the game.

Cheers

i'm one of the ones that recently returned to AoC been having alot more fun than i did the first go, probably because i'm playing on a pvp server. at launch the pvp servers was an unplayable gankfest.i couldn't even get off the lil boat to whitesands without being gang raped by groups before i could even move, and then spawn camped at the rez point.thankfully the grievers quit the game so the rest of us can enjoy it playing real pvp.

i did notice in global chat, i've seen alot of people saying they just returned asking questions and what not. wether people come back and try it out again doesn't matter to me but some are and having fun not sure why the new trend is to hate on every game you don't play. why does it matter if others enjoy a game that you don't? short bus mentality i guess, doesn't need to make sense.

Originally posted by warror

Even if they have 150k subs. That is a healthy number. Lotro is doing fine and it has an estimated 50k to 80k population. IMO age of conans flaw is the lvl cap. Lvl 80 is fine but  not to start, I think you have to ease people into it. Other than that content is solid, graphics are excellent and it has a healthy population. So as long as it can keep over 100k and keep overhead low it will make money and thats why they made the game.

Where are you getting your LotRO numbers?

Last I heard, LotRO had 200k+.

Just wondering where you got those numbers.

Originally posted by jposavatz

Although I'm not the OP, I do think that the estimate is reasonable based upon the following:

 

(Disclaimer:  I am neither a mathematician nor a statistician.  I'm sure some of you can poke holes in the methods and reasoning used below.  I'm not saying they're 100% rock-solid valid, but I think they're at least somewhat indicative.  I did take stats in college, and I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night...)

 

Using some "known" numbers (well, claimed anyway) as a starting point, and Xfire to draw some conclusions:

• WoW subscribers:  11,000,000
• Xfire "Hours Played":  408,232
• 11,000,000 / 408,232 = 26.9 users/hour who use Xfire with WoW

 

• WAR subscribers:  300,000
• Xfire "Hours Played":  12,108
• 300,000 / 12,108 = 24.8 users/hour who use Xfire with WAR

Although not identical, 26.9 and 24.8 are actually quite close, so I suspect that my method at least isn't complete nonsense.... let's average them together, and use 25.9 as a rough multiplier for all games...

•  AoC "Hours Played":  5,278
• 5,278 * 25.9 = 136,700 users... that's between 100-150k... OP might be right.

A few other of the top MMOs (just because I was curious, and have played all of them):

• GW:  22,652 * 25.9 = 586,686 users
• LotRO:  19,559 * 25.9 = 506,578 users
• EvE:  17,521 * 25.9 = 453,793 users

Of course I realize that Xfire numbers fluctuate daily... but at least as a point of reference, I think these numbers seem reasonable enough.  None of this is proof, but it's another data point to consider...

 

EVE is only around 250k subs. CCP has never had any issue releasing their subscription numbers, but they've been growing since launch, something that only WoW can claim with them.  They have a slightly higher xfire usage atm because there was an eve/xfire promo competition kinda like lotro is doing now i believe.