Very open with information ?   Say that again AA.

You do know you are talking about the company that didn't lift NDA.  And the same company had their FORUMS CLOSED TO PUBLIC when game launched to prevent information about the real state of the game coming out.

Serioulsy....

Some things can be defended - but there are others that can not.   AOC is probably the last game in the genre that will be launched without lifing NDA.  Around mililon ppl bought a game based on false promises including such small issues as the first every MMORPG game with DX10 support. 

Im sorry.... Did Funcom even put the announchment info that DX was not in on their closed "public" forums ?  Very open with information what ? 

This statement from AA pretty much shows everyone that hes not really here to bring out the truth about the game.  Hes here only to talk about his/Funcom version of the truth.  That truth is about selling a game no matter what.   And adding few lies about how Funcom has been open with information sounds pretty nice - But its also sounds alot like the same lies that have been going on from day one of this game title.

Originally posted by Frobner

Very open with infromation ?   Say that again AA.

You do know you are talking about the company that didn't lift NDA.  And the same company had their FORUMS CLOSED TO PUBLIC when game launched to prevent information about the real state of the game coming out.

Serioulsy....

Some things can be defended - but there are others that can not.   AOC is probably the last game in the genre that will be launched without lifing NDA.  Around mililon ppl bought a game based on false promises including such small issues as the first every MMORPG game with DX10 support. 

Im sorry.... Did Funcom even put that announchment info on their closed "public" forums ?  

This statement from AA pretty much shows everyone that hes not really to bring out the truth about the game.  Hes here only to talk about his/Funcom version of the truth.  And adding few lies about how Funcom has been open with information sounds like pretty much the same lies that have been going on from day one of this game title.

Actually you know... Im sorry. I thought it was quite clear what I wrote. Maybe you just didn't get it as your twisting it all up amongst your own feelings.

Whilst I was away from that competition I won, the NDA was lifted for Press + myself - hence the 5 + hours of camcorder footage released I took and the write up's Jon Wood did at the time as well as other sites.

I respect the NDA I was under before and after that trip from the beta.

NDA was lifted before launch in the same scope as other games about the come out shortly after too. I don't hear you moaning on their boards?

There were 10's of thousands of beta testers.

bymitra.com ? remember that site it collated all the posts devs made from the old forums? I posted it regularly here in showing that they were quite open with a lot of development with AoC.

Again this thread is a guess to the amount of subs the game has. Just because there is an NDA like other games doesn't give reason to single it out.

We are in present day, the game made $100 mill last year, continues to provide a strong backbone in income to support development for a long time. No matter how much QQ there is from the past.

You think it's funny that someone in the thread takes it off topic asking personal questions with an ulterior motive to get someone like you to respond, I think it's funny :) "Topic Hijacking"

It have the highest sales because it had such large hype and had no other big game around it's release date. But bad game is bad. Age of Conan was billed as a PvP'ers dream by many players. It was theorized that this would syphon off many World of Warcraft subscribers, and it does appear that AoC did quite well in its first week of sales.

There is only one problem with this.

People are leaving AoC (80% of the free month)

I'm among them. I don't have the amount of time it would require to level from 1-80. On top of that, learning a new game and the opportunity cost of playing AoC instead of leveling an alt in World of Warcraft makes AoC seem like a waste of time.

Furthermore, reading about how AoC is punishing gankers by implementing a jail system doesn't exactly encourage me to level.

Systems to discourage ganking in PvE games are probably good.

Systems to discourage ganking in a PvP game aren't good.

I think many of the players aren't keen on leveling up another character. The eventual "WoW killer" or at least a "WoW syphon" will come when gaming companies realize you don't have to have a D+D based level grind to get players to keep playing. This will have to be combined with other gameplay elements that are done better than they are in World of Warcraft.

Darkfall Online looks like it might inspire hope. That is, if you don't mind waiting for vaporware. When your MMORPG is mentioned right after Duke Nukem Forever when it comes to vaporware, it might just be time to say "GOLD" it' and release the damn thing already.

btw for those following

NDA stands for:

Norwegian

Development

Association

--I knew it !!

Although I'm not the OP, I do think that the estimate is reasonable based upon the following:

(Disclaimer:  I am neither a mathematician nor a statistician.  I'm sure some of you can poke holes in the methods and reasoning used below.  I'm not saying they're 100% rock-solid valid, but I think they're at least somewhat indicative.  I did take stats in college, and I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night...)

Using some "known" numbers (well, claimed anyway) as a starting point, and Xfire to draw some conclusions:

• WoW subscribers:  11,000,000
• Xfire "Hours Played":  408,232
• 11,000,000 / 408,232 = 26.9 users/hour who use Xfire with WoW

• WAR subscribers:  300,000
• Xfire "Hours Played":  12,108
• 300,000 / 12,108 = 24.8 users/hour who use Xfire with WAR

Although not identical, 26.9 and 24.8 are actually quite close, so I suspect that my method at least isn't complete nonsense.... let's average them together, and use 25.9 as a rough multiplier for all games...

•  AoC "Hours Played":  5,278
• 5,278 * 25.9 = 136,700 users... that's between 100-150k... OP might be right.

A few other of the top MMOs (just because I was curious, and have played all of them):

• GW:  22,652 * 25.9 = 586,686 users
• LotRO:  19,559 * 25.9 = 506,578 users
• EvE:  17,521 * 25.9 = 453,793 users

Of course I realize that Xfire numbers fluctuate daily... but at least as a point of reference, I think these numbers seem reasonable enough.  None of this is proof, but it's another data point to consider...

First off - Facts
NDA was NOT lifted.  It was NEVER lifted.  Beta testers were NOT allowed to talk about their gaming experience during beta even after launch.  Now lets keep that clear cause obviously you have missed this fact.  I hope you can clarify this yourself since breaking NDA is not something that MMORPG has taken lightly in the past - even when ppl have been warning others about the true state of games - few days before launch with Pre-Order ads all over the Website.
Secondly - Im not stealing my own topic.  I just want to keep things based on facts rather than something made up that is supposed to sound as a good advertisement for the game.   Its easy to bend few facts when there is noone around to correct ppl.  Im pretty sure you would correct me if I said something wrong so I expect I have the same right to correct you.
But your right - I was talking about AOC subs in the present game.   But however you bend things - there is no way of hiding the past.  AOC will always have to face up to what went on before, during and shortly after launch.  That is PART of the present this game is living with.  Thats probably part of the reason it has fallen from close to 1 million players down to 100-150 k like I suggested.  
PPL are quick to forget.  And then its alot easier to bend the past.  Hell... <Mod edit>   Same goes for my perspective about Funcom.   FUNCOM tried deliberatly to HIDE information about the game before launch and NDA is NOT lifted like you are here claiming.   That is simply not correct and I will risk beeing called stealing this topic in correcting such false statements.

The X-Fire numbers are inaccurate, at least as far as EVE and LotRO are concerned.  EVE has said they have a quarter million people playing, and LotRO has said 250-300k active.

Ind just ignore Avery.  Any thread with AoC will bring him out to wave the Funcom banner.

Originally posted by Battlekruse

It have the highest sales because it had such large hype and had no other big game around it's release date. But bad game is bad. Age of Conan was billed as a PvP'ers dream by many players. It was theorized that this would syphon off many World of Warcraft subscribers, and it does appear that AoC did quite well in its first week of sales.

There is only one problem with this.

People are leaving AoC (80% of the free month)

I'm among them. I don't have the amount of time it would require to level from 1-80. On top of that, learning a new game and the opportunity cost of playing AoC instead of leveling an alt in World of Warcraft makes AoC seem like a waste of time.

Furthermore, reading about how AoC is punishing gankers by implementing a jail system doesn't exactly encourage me to level.

Systems to discourage ganking in PvE games are probably good.

Systems to discourage ganking in a PvP game aren't good.

I think many of the players aren't keen on leveling up another character. The eventual "WoW killer" or at least a "WoW syphon" will come when gaming companies realize you don't have to have a D+D based level grind to get players to keep playing. This will have to be combined with other gameplay elements that are done better than they are in World of Warcraft.

Darkfall Online looks like it might inspire hope. That is, if you don't mind waiting for vaporware. When your MMORPG is mentioned right after Duke Nukem Forever when it comes to vaporware, it might just be time to say "GOLD" it' and release the damn thing already.

So you are saying you (and others) don't play AoC because you don't want to level up a new character (or learn a new game), and because you are a ganker?  
 

So....it has nothing to do with the game being sub-par, or maybe because of Funcoms empty promises?

Wow, thats a first...

Originally posted by haggus71

The X-Fire numbers are inaccurate, at least as far as EVE and LotRO are concerned.  EVE has said they have a quarter million people playing, and LotRO has said 250-300k active.

Ind just ignore Avery.  Any thread with AoC will bring him out to wave the Funcom banner.

Quite possibly.  I hadn't heard those other numbers.  Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant. 

If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:

• EvE = 250,000 / 17,521 = 14.3
• LotRO = 300,000 / 19,559 = 15.3

(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3

And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:

• AoC = 5,278 * 20.3 = 107,143

Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.

Originally posted by Frobner

First off - Facts

NDA was NOT lifted.  It was NEVER lifted.  Beta testers were NOT allowed to talk about their gaming experience during beta even after launch.  Now lets keep that clear cause obviously you have missed this fact.  I hope you can clarify this yourself since breaking NDA is not something that MMORPG has taken lightly in the past - even when ppl have been warning others about the true state of games - few days before launch with Pre-Order ads all over the Website.

Secondly - Im not stealing my own topic.  I just want to keep things based on facts rather than something made up that is supposed to sound as a good advertisement for the game.   Its easy to bend few facts when there is noone around to correct ppl.  Im pretty sure you would correct me if I said something wrong so I expect I have the same right to correct you.

But your right - I was talking about AOC subs in the present game.   But however you bend things - there is no way of hiding the past.  AOC will always have to face up to what went on before, during and shortly after launch.  That is PART of the present this game is living with.  Thats probably part of the reason it has fallen from close to 1 million players down to 100-150 k like I suggested.  

PPL are quick to forget.  And then its alot easier to bend the past.  Hell... There are even ppl now that say The Holocaust never happened.  How many facts are those ppl skipping and bending ?   Hopefully there will always be ppl around remind ppl it happend - to prevent it happening again.  By stating facts about the Holocaust does not mean that those hate ppl from Germany.   Same goes for my perspective about Funcom.   FUNCOM tried deliberatly to HIDE information about the game before launch and NDA is NOT lifted like you are here claiming.   That is simply not correct and I will risk beeing called stealing this topic in correcting such false statements.

People*

Originally posted by jposavatz

Originally posted by haggus71

The X-Fire numbers are inaccurate, at least as far as EVE and LotRO are concerned.  EVE has said they have a quarter million people playing, and LotRO has said 250-300k active.

Ind just ignore Avery.  Any thread with AoC will bring him out to wave the Funcom banner.

 

Quite possibly.  I hadn't heard those other numbers.  Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant. 

 

If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:

• EvE = 250,000 / 17,521 = 14.3
• LotRO = 300,000 / 19,559 = 15.3

(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3

And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:

• AoC = 5,278 * 20.3 = 107,143

Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.

Its all nothing but pure speculation, there is no sure way of knowing how many subscribers aoc has and how many have joined the game since things have improved over the last few months.
 

Simple splashing of mathmatics in posts will get you nowhere at all without having some idea at least, for all we know aoc could have around 300k plus. Trying to prove a point using imaginary figures people have dreamed up is a joke.

Originally posted by Battlekruse

It have the highest sales because it had such large hype and had no other big game around it's release date. But bad game is bad. Age of Conan was billed as a PvP'ers dream by many players. It was theorized that this would syphon off many World of Warcraft subscribers, and it does appear that AoC did quite well in its first week of sales.

There is only one problem with this.

People are leaving AoC (80% of the free month)

I'm among them. I don't have the amount of time it would require to level from 1-80. On top of that, learning a new game and the opportunity cost of playing AoC instead of leveling an alt in World of Warcraft makes AoC seem like a waste of time.

Furthermore, reading about how AoC is punishing gankers by implementing a jail system doesn't exactly encourage me to level.

Systems to discourage ganking in PvE games are probably good.

Systems to discourage ganking in a PvP game aren't good.

I think many of the players aren't keen on leveling up another character. The eventual "WoW killer" or at least a "WoW syphon" will come when gaming companies realize you don't have to have a D+D based level grind to get players to keep playing. This will have to be combined with other gameplay elements that are done better than they are in World of Warcraft.

Darkfall Online looks like it might inspire hope. That is, if you don't mind waiting for vaporware. When your MMORPG is mentioned right after Duke Nukem Forever when it comes to vaporware, it might just be time to say "GOLD" it' and release the damn thing already.

 

As for sub numbers-  Do you REALLY think it is that simple? A bit of multiplying and dividing and KABUMM you have the numbers. 

{ Mod Edit }

Originally posted by sancher36

Originally posted by jposavatz

Originally posted by haggus71

The X-Fire numbers are inaccurate, at least as far as EVE and LotRO are concerned.  EVE has said they have a quarter million people playing, and LotRO has said 250-300k active.

Ind just ignore Avery.  Any thread with AoC will bring him out to wave the Funcom banner.

 

Quite possibly.  I hadn't heard those other numbers.  Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant. 

 

If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:

• EvE = 250,000 / 17,521 = 14.3
• LotRO = 300,000 / 19,559 = 15.3

(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3

And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:

• AoC = 5,278 * 20.3 = 107,143

Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.

Its all nothing but pure speculation, there is no sure way of knowing how many subscribers aoc has and how many have joined the game since things have improved over the last few months.
 

Simple splashing of mathmatics in posts will get you nowhere at all without having some idea at least, for all we know aoc could have around 300k plus. Trying to prove a point using imaginary figures people have dreamed up is a joke.

Sancher36,

If I might make a suggestion, you should re-read the entirety of this thread, and specifically my contributions to it...

I never said that my calculations were anything but a simple application of statistics, and as we all know, statistics often lie.  Nor am I "splashing mathematics" in an attempt to prove any points - I personally couldn't care less if AoC has 300k subs or 30k subs.  

The OP suggested AoC had 100k-150k subscribers, others complained that he provided no means of backing up that estimate, and I attempted to illustrate one way that such a claim could be justified (but certainly not proven).

Originally posted by nihce 

As for sub numbers-  Do you REALLY think it is that simple? A bit of multiplying and dividing and KABUMM you have the numbers. 

{ Mod Edit }

 

No, I don't.  I think that a statistical examination is simply one way of looking at things, it's certainly not proof.  I think I said that pretty clearly in my disclaimer...

What I do think that my bit of multiplying and dividing does show is that the OP's estimates aren't necessarily unreasonable.  They could be completely wrong mind you, but at least there's some data which might confrim he's in the right ballpark.

Originally posted by jposavatz

Originally posted by sancher36

Originally posted by jposavatz

Originally posted by haggus71

The X-Fire numbers are inaccurate, at least as far as EVE and LotRO are concerned.  EVE has said they have a quarter million people playing, and LotRO has said 250-300k active.

Ind just ignore Avery.  Any thread with AoC will bring him out to wave the Funcom banner.

 

Quite possibly.  I hadn't heard those other numbers.  Perhaps Xfire just isn't broad enough of a statistical sample to be relevant. 

 

If you use the numbers that haggus71 points to and re-average the "multiplier" I came up with:

• EvE = 250,000 / 17,521 = 14.3
• LotRO = 300,000 / 19,559 = 15.3

(26.9 + 24.8 + 14.3 + 15.3) / 4 = 20.3

And then recalculating AoC numbers with the new multiplier:

• AoC = 5,278 * 20.3 = 107,143

Not nearly as high as before, but still possibly around 100k subscribers.

Its all nothing but pure speculation, there is no sure way of knowing how many subscribers aoc has and how many have joined the game since things have improved over the last few months.
 

Simple splashing of mathmatics in posts will get you nowhere at all without having some idea at least, for all we know aoc could have around 300k plus. Trying to prove a point using imaginary figures people have dreamed up is a joke.

 

Sancher36,

 

If I might make a suggestion, you should re-read the entirety of this thread, and specifically my contributions to it...

 

I never said that my calculations were anything but a simple application of statistics, and as we all know, statistics often lie.  Nor am I "splashing mathematics" in an attempt to prove any points - I personally couldn't care less if AoC has 300k subs or 30k subs.  

 

The OP suggested AoC had 100k-150k subscribers, others complained that he provided no means of backing up that estimate, and I attempted to illustrate one way that such a claim could be justified (but certainly not proven).

 

 

Ok I apologise for that :) I just think too many ill informed people will skim over it and take it as fact.

Originally posted by sancher36

Ok I apologise for that :) I just think too many ill informed people will skim over it and take it as fact.

No worries, no harm done. 

And I suspect you're right - sometimes I'm shocked when I see forum posts stating opinions and such, which later will mysteriously wind up being quoted elsewhere as fact.  Well perhaps not "shocked" but certainly disappointed at least. 

Originally posted by Frobner

Very open with information ?   Say that again AA.

You do know you are talking about the company that didn't lift NDA.  And the same company had their FORUMS CLOSED TO PUBLIC when game launched to prevent information about the real state of the game coming out.

Serioulsy....

Some things can be defended - but there are others that can not.   AOC is probably the last game in the genre that will be launched without lifing NDA.  Around mililon ppl bought a game based on false promises including such small issues as the first every MMORPG game with DX10 support. 

Im sorry.... Did Funcom even put the announchment info that DX was not in on their closed "public" forums ?  Very open with information what ? 

This statement from AA pretty much shows everyone that hes not really here to bring out the truth about the game.  Hes here only to talk about his/Funcom version of the truth.  That truth is about selling a game no matter what.   And adding few lies about how Funcom has been open with information sounds pretty nice - But its also sounds alot like the same lies that have been going on from day one of this game title.

The reason for the forums being closed to the public was most likely so that AoC players wouldn't have their forum crashed by a bunch on non-players. I don't remember how long the were restricted, but it wasn't long.

They should have waited until dx10 was ready, but then we probably wouldn't have AoC launch until this year.

Anyway dx10 is suppose to come in next patch and i reckon it will, I haven't seen anything saying it won't.

And it's not like Funcom is different than any other company, all the mmo's are out there to make money, at least enough to keep the wheels going.

Originally posted by Inzra

They should have waited until dx10 was ready, but then we probably wouldn't have AoC launch until this year.

And would have kept a helluva lot more of it's day one customers. FC wouldn't have been labeled as 'two time losers' or 'liars and thieves', an earned reputation they will probably never get past

My guess is many gamer's will be much more skeptical about any title launched by any company** post-AoC, I'll bet pre-orders will be fewer, and 'pro' reviews won't carry as much weight, and launch days won't bring in crowds as large. I truly think AoC's launch will have a long lasting impact on how MMO companies advertise / hype, and decide when a title is 'launch ready'. FunCom has become a cautionary tale.

** Except Blizzard - and no I am not a fan

Originally posted by Vhaln

My guess would be in that area, too. I don't think AOC did as well as WAR, but while WAR's numbers continue to plummet, I think AOC's might be slowly growing - now that it's playable, and people are able to see what a solid game it is.  Maybe as mainstream rigs are catching up, I dunno. In the long run, I'm think AOC might do ok. If it can just surive in the interim.

According to GamerDNA's 2008 report:

• Warhammer Online subs are still dropping.
• Age of Conan subs are rising sharply.
• Lord of the Rings Online & EVE Online are the fastest growing titles (no shit).
• World of Warcraft sub-count has effectively leveled off (after it's expansion pack was released)

Granted: that's based on their own user's Xfire activity, so some data might be schewed a little (you have to account for their own increase in members and the fact that some games are more popular on Xfire than others) but it's probably a decent approximation of what's going on with the overall sub-count for each game. You can't actually extract total sub counts from that, but you can extract the direction the game's sub-count is headed in. Those 'fanboys' who've been proclaiming that AoC has seen more players recently do appear to be correct, for the moment.

See: http://www.massively.com/2008/12/29/gamerdna-and-massively-look-back-at-the-mmo-year-in-review/

Originally posted by Droniac

Originally posted by Vhaln

My guess would be in that area, too. I don't think AOC did as well as WAR, but while WAR's numbers continue to plummet, I think AOC's might be slowly growing - now that it's playable, and people are able to see what a solid game it is.  Maybe as mainstream rigs are catching up, I dunno. In the long run, I'm think AOC might do ok. If it can just surive in the interim.

 

According to GamerDNA's 2008 report:

• Warhammer Online subs are still dropping.
• Age of Conan subs are rising sharply.
• Lord of the Rings Online & EVE Online are the fastest growing titles (no shit).
• World of Warcraft sub-count has effectively leveled off (after it's expansion pack was released)

Granted: that's based on their own user's Xfire activity, so some data might be schewed a little (you have to account for their own increase in members and the fact that some games are more popular on Xfire than others) but it's probably a decent approximation of what's going on with the overall sub-count for each game. You can't actually extract total sub counts from that, but you can extract the direction the game's sub-count is headed in. Those 'fanboys' who've been proclaiming that AoC has seen more players recently do appear to be correct, for the moment.

See: http://www.massively.com/2008/12/29/gamerdna-and-massively-look-back-at-the-mmo-year-in-review/

So your interpretation of this: "WAR's companion in the PVP fantasy niche, Age of Conan, was trending downwards before WAR's launch. Logins dropped dramatically during that event, and then resumed the slower bleed. However, AoC can't be counted out of the game in 2009. Its developer doesn't give up easily. Anarchy Online, which I included just for this paragraph's comparison, put up raw numbers close to Dungeons and Dragons Online and EverQuest 2 – and had a much more consistent year than either of those two products – and had an even worse starting year. The numbers for December were very encouraging – players had already played more in the first half of the month than they had in November." is this: "Age of Conan subs are rising sharply."?