Lets do a little bit of math just for fun and see how much the NGE has really cost SOE over the years.

THIS IS ONLY ESTIMATING LOST MONEY FROM SUBSCRIPTION INCOME ONLY

Now, the magic number floating around is 200k subscribers at the time of the NGE. We will take a low ball estimate of 175k for the calculations sake(to account for loss of subscribers over time, ect) Now, 175k x $15 a month x 38 months(for the roughly 3 years since the NGE ) = $99,750,000 of subscription money over 3 years had the CU stayed in the game.

Now, lets take a rather high estimation for the NGE population of 50k subscribers over the course of it's existence.(Judging by the fact that less than 1/4 of the old servers actually have a decent population, and the vets have been able to play for free for like half the year for the last 3 years, it's probably less then this but whatever). 50k x $15 x 38 months = $28,500,000.

Subtract $28,500,000 from $99,750,000 and....

The NGE has cost SOE a total of $71,250,000.

Yes, according to my estimations, the NGE has cost SOE over 71 million dollars.

An astonishing business move by Mr. Smedley.

Well, that was fun.

Yeah but making this game more wowlike tehy managed to kill the only alternative to eve if your looking for a sandboxy game.

Originally posted by beaverz

Yeah but making this game more wowlike tehy managed to kill the only alternative to eve if your looking for a sandboxy game.

Oh, I have no arguments with the extremely large amount of ways this executive decision was wrong and ruined a lot of things, I just wanted to look at the main driving force for why they made this decision, and how that panned out for them. They clearly were pushing to make more money, and they clearly didn't.

At the time of the end of the CU era SWG was bleeding 10,000 subs a month (quoted by various dev sources), so you will have to lower your estimate quite a bit. It is hard to say what the bottom figure would be if the devs had kept the CU code as the game code.

And you have to keep in mind that SONY is a 88.7 billion a year company, SWG is but a very small part of Sony.

What was the driving force behind the necessity for yet another thread trying to display what people already claim to know? Nobody knows what would have happened we only know what did happen after the fact.

Estimated numbers pulled from ones ass are estimated numbers pulled from ones ass.

Originally posted by beaverz

Yeah but making this game more wowlike tehy managed to kill the only alternative to eve if your looking for a sandboxy game.

That's what make it even more mind blogging.
I always said that Smedley is not up for such a job, not just because I don't like him, but being into business myself I really don't see him as a skillful executive.

He doesn't have a clear vision by letting the marketing departement take all the decisions for him.
He can't market his games outside the US, in Europe SoE games are almost unknown and difficult to find in shop, although there is clearly a big market there, Smedley seems still unaware of it.
He doesn't respect his customers by imposing changes that are widely opposed by the majority of his customers.

I don't understand what qualities does he bring to SoE, and why Sony didn't fired him yet.
Actually to be fair on him, I have to say that Smed is an excellent organiser and task master, SoE games are well budgeted, the teams are well organised and the games usually launch in time and with few bugs.
But this doesn't help SoE becoming a global brand.

SoE should keep Smed in charge of coordinatinfg the various teams and games, but shouldn't be left in charge of the entire business, he is not good at that, and he is losing SoE lots of millions.
 

Originally posted by Gutboy

At the time of the end of the CU era SWG was bleeding 10,000 subs a month (quoted by various dev sources), so you will have to lower your estimate quite a bit. It is hard to say what the bottom figure would be if the devs had kept the CU code as the game code.

And you have to keep in mind that SONY is a 88.7 billion a year company, SWG is but a very small part of Sony.

Firstly, I don't believe that 10,000 a month bleeding one bit. The "dev blog" that claimed that also claimed "everyone quit right after launch", which clearly wasn't the case.  Secondly, I made some compensations for accounts lost by lowering the amount of subs with the CU, and giving a high estimation of the amount of subs for the NGE. Third, if SOE hadn't spent so much time re-writing the game, the CU(or pre-CU) would have probably been in much better shape then it was, which would have likely lessened any bleeding that was occurring. 

And I didn't even factor in money lost from the reputation SOE got with the NGE. I know lots of people stopped playing, or refused to play any SOE games after the NGE happened. So I think my assessment is quite fair.

And lastly, Sony is forcasting a net loss of $1.6 billion dollars on the year.

www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gHqEoLle79Wp7nEztgSq6Hy8yHQAD960Q0MG1

Originally posted by Abrahmm

Lets do a little bit of math just for fun and see how much the NGE has really cost SOE over the years.

Now, the magic number floating around is 200k subscribers at the time of the NGE. We will take a low ball estimate of 175k for the calculations sake(to account for loss of subscribers over time, ect) Now, 175k x $15 a month x 38 months(for the roughly 3 years since the NGE ) = $99,750,000 of subscription money over 3 years had the CU stayed in the game.

Now, lets take a rather high estimation for the NGE population of 50k subscribers over the course of it's existence.(Judging by the fact that less than 1/4 of the old servers actually have a decent population, and the vets have been able to play for free for like half the year for the last 3 years, it's probably less then this but whatever). 50k x $15 x 38 months = $28,500,000.

 

Subtract $28,500,000 from $99,750,000 and....

 

The NGE has cost SOE a total of $71,250,000.

Yes, according to my estimations, the NGE has cost SOE over 71 million dollars.

An astonishing business move by Mr. Smedley.

Well, that was fun.

99% of all internet statistics are made up. Just like yours and mine.

Your assumption thet NGE caused more people to leave the game than if they had done nothing has no factual basis. Nice try though.

Originally posted by zymurgeist

Originally posted by Abrahmm

Lets do a little bit of math just for fun and see how much the NGE has really cost SOE over the years.

Now, the magic number floating around is 200k subscribers at the time of the NGE. We will take a low ball estimate of 175k for the calculations sake(to account for loss of subscribers over time, ect) Now, 175k x $15 a month x 38 months(for the roughly 3 years since the NGE ) = $99,750,000 of subscription money over 3 years had the CU stayed in the game.

Now, lets take a rather high estimation for the NGE population of 50k subscribers over the course of it's existence.(Judging by the fact that less than 1/4 of the old servers actually have a decent population, and the vets have been able to play for free for like half the year for the last 3 years, it's probably less then this but whatever). 50k x $15 x 38 months = $28,500,000.

 

Subtract $28,500,000 from $99,750,000 and....

 

The NGE has cost SOE a total of $71,250,000.

Yes, according to my estimations, the NGE has cost SOE over 71 million dollars.

An astonishing business move by Mr. Smedley.

Well, that was fun.

 

99% of all internet statistics are made up. Just like yours and mine.

Your assumption thet NGE caused more people to leave the game than if they had done nothing has no factual basis. Nice try though.

You are kidding right? Really? Honestly? You don't think the NGE caused people to leave?

I thought the mass exodus was common knowledge, are the fans trying to even cover that up now???

Only factual basis I need is that my server was as healthy as could be before the NGE, and just a few months after was a ghost town.

Oh, and nothing about these are statistical. I clearly stated, and even underlined it, that these were MY ESTIMATIONS.

Originally posted by Abrahmm

 

You are kidding right? Really? Honestly? You don't think the NGE caused people to leave?

I thought the mass exodus was common knowledge, are the fans trying to even cover that up now???

Only factual basis I need is that my server was as healthy as could be before the NGE, and just a few months after was a ghost town.

Every change causes people to leave MMOs. Even good ones. Good changes just bring in more people or bring more people back. It's more of a case that you have no evidence they wouldn't have left anyway. Or that more people wouldn't have left if there were no NGE or that SWG wouldn't have closed down entirely if there hadn't been an NGE. Basically you're pulling numbers out of your behind and making specific claims about them.You're firmly in "what if" territory  and that's no place to be making hard calculations.

In my opinion SWG wasn't healthy before NGE. It was salvageable it wasn't healthy.

Originally posted by zymurgeist

Originally posted by Abrahmm

 

You are kidding right? Really? Honestly? You don't think the NGE caused people to leave?

I thought the mass exodus was common knowledge, are the fans trying to even cover that up now???

Only factual basis I need is that my server was as healthy as could be before the NGE, and just a few months after was a ghost town.

 

Every change causes people to leave MMOs. Even good ones. Good changes just bring in more people or bring more people back. It's more of a case that you have no evidence they wouldn't have left anyway. Or that more people wouldn't have left if there were no NGE or that SWG wouldn't have closed down entirely if there hadn't been an NGE. Basically you're pulling numbers out of your behind and making specific claims about them.You're firmly in "what if" territory  and that's no place to be making hard calculations.

 

In my opinion SWG wasn't healthy before NGE. It was salvageable it wasn't healthy.

 

If you don't think SWG was healthy before the NGE then you are delusional from the aftermath of WoW. SWG had a very respectable number of subscribers for the pre-WoW era it was created in. In fact, even in the post-WoW era, how many pay to play games have consistently matched or bettered the 200k SWG had? WoW, Eve, Lineage I & II, .... ? Just because it doesn't have millions of subscribers doesn't mean it wasn't successful, and doesn't mean it isn't healthy.

You can also make a fairly safe assumption that if the game had relatively maintained it's population over 2 years, then it wasn't suddenly going to fall off the chart for no reason.

Basically, I don't know what would have happened, and you don't know what would have happened. Nobody ever knows what is GOING to happen because it hasn't happened and you can't predict the future. What you can do is make guesses based on what HAS happened, which is what I did.

Originally posted by Abrahmm

 

If you don't think SWG was healthy before the NGE then you are delusional from the aftermath of WoW. SWG had a very respectable number of subscribers for the pre-WoW era it was created in. In fact, even in the post-WoW era, how many pay to play games have consistently matched or bettered the 200k SWG had? WoW, Eve, Lineage I & II, .... ? Just because it doesn't have millions of subscribers doesn't mean it wasn't successful, and doesn't mean it isn't healthy.

You can also make a fairly safe assumption that if the game had relatively maintained it's population over 2 years, then it wasn't suddenly going to fall off the chart for no reason.

Basically, I don't know what would have happened, and you don't know what would have happened. Nobody ever knows what is GOING to happen because it hasn't happened and you can't predict the future. What you can do is make guesses based on what HAS happened, which is what I did.

If disagreeing with you makes me delusional disagreeing with me means your thumbs are on backwards. I didn't say number of subscribers was the determinant of game health. Pardon me for not engaging in a futile dissection of my opinions with a fanboi.
 

There are no safe asumptions. So you're "guessing" NGE caused SOE to lose money in a specific amount? Gee that's some rigorous accounting methodology. I should use that technique on my taxes.

Originally posted by zymurgeist

Originally posted by Abrahmm

 

If you don't think SWG was healthy before the NGE then you are delusional from the aftermath of WoW. SWG had a very respectable number of subscribers for the pre-WoW era it was created in. In fact, even in the post-WoW era, how many pay to play games have consistently matched or bettered the 200k SWG had? WoW, Eve, Lineage I & II, .... ? Just because it doesn't have millions of subscribers doesn't mean it wasn't successful, and doesn't mean it isn't healthy.

You can also make a fairly safe assumption that if the game had relatively maintained it's population over 2 years, then it wasn't suddenly going to fall off the chart for no reason.

Basically, I don't know what would have happened, and you don't know what would have happened. Nobody ever knows what is GOING to happen because it hasn't happened and you can't predict the future. What you can do is make guesses based on what HAS happened, which is what I did.

 

If disagreeing with you makes me delusional disagreeing with me means your thumbs are on backwards. I didn't say number of subscribers was the determinant of game health. Pardon me for not engaging in a futile dissection of my opinions with a fanboi.
 

There are no safe asumptions. So you're "guessing" NGE caused SOE to lose money in a specific amount? Gee that's some rigorous accounting methodology. I should use that technique on my taxes.

 

Well when you mention nothing but population numbers, then claim the game was unhealthy with no further explanation, then that only leaves us to assume what you mean. So explain yourself before you get defensive.

Beyond that, this isn't rocket science. I wasn't speculating what the CU would have done. I simply took what the subscribers were before the NGE, and what they were after, and made an estimation of the differences in subscription income. What aren't you getting? It was MY ESTIMATION. Mine.

Originally posted by Abrahmm

Well when you mention nothing but population numbers, then claim the game was unhealthy with no further explanation, then that only leaves us to assume what you mean. So explain yourself before you get defensive.

Beyond that, this isn't rocket science. I wasn't speculating what the CU would have done. I simply took what the subscribers were before the NGE, and what they were after, and made an estimation of the differences in subscription income. What aren't you getting? It was MY ESTIMATION. Mine.

I never mentioned population numbers. I mentioned your lack of any possible numbers basis for your conclusion.

There's a big difference between making up nonsensical numbers based on a complete lack of information  and an estimate.

Originally posted by Abrahmm

Lets do a little bit of math just for fun and see how much the NGE has really cost SOE over the years.

Now, the magic number floating around is 200k subscribers at the time of the NGE. We will take a low ball estimate of 175k for the calculations sake(to account for loss of subscribers over time, ect) Now, 175k x $15 a month x 38 months(for the roughly 3 years since the NGE ) = $99,750,000 of subscription money over 3 years had the CU stayed in the game.

Now, lets take a rather high estimation for the NGE population of 50k subscribers over the course of it's existence.(Judging by the fact that less than 1/4 of the old servers actually have a decent population, and the vets have been able to play for free for like half the year for the last 3 years, it's probably less then this but whatever). 50k x $15 x 38 months = $28,500,000.

 

Subtract $28,500,000 from $99,750,000 and....

 

The NGE has cost SOE a total of $71,250,000.

Yes, according to my estimations, the NGE has cost SOE over 71 million dollars.

An astonishing business move by Mr. Smedley.

Well, that was fun.

Amazing...and your estimate is quite conservative at that. It makes me wonder how the Smedster holds on to his position at $OE after such a huge multimillion dollar business blunder. You didn't even mention the huge loss of revenue  the mass refunds for the ToOW expansion the NGE triggered.  Any idea or estimate on that?

Originally posted by Kazara

Originally posted by Abrahmm

Lets do a little bit of math just for fun and see how much the NGE has really cost SOE over the years.

Now, the magic number floating around is 200k subscribers at the time of the NGE. We will take a low ball estimate of 175k for the calculations sake(to account for loss of subscribers over time, ect) Now, 175k x $15 a month x 38 months(for the roughly 3 years since the NGE ) = $99,750,000 of subscription money over 3 years had the CU stayed in the game.

Now, lets take a rather high estimation for the NGE population of 50k subscribers over the course of it's existence.(Judging by the fact that less than 1/4 of the old servers actually have a decent population, and the vets have been able to play for free for like half the year for the last 3 years, it's probably less then this but whatever). 50k x $15 x 38 months = $28,500,000.

 

Subtract $28,500,000 from $99,750,000 and....

 

The NGE has cost SOE a total of $71,250,000.

Yes, according to my estimations, the NGE has cost SOE over 71 million dollars.

An astonishing business move by Mr. Smedley.

Well, that was fun.

 

Amazing...and your estimate is quite conservative at that. It makes me wonder how the Smedster holds on to his position at $OE after such a huge multimillion dollar business blunder. You didn't even mention the huge loss of revenue  the mass refunds for the ToOW expansion the NGE triggered.  Any idea or estimate on that?

 

Don't forget what could cost them more in the long run: the damage done to their brand as a market leader in the online gaming world. The fanbois would like everyone to believe that it's just a handful of angry vets who hate SOE but it's really not. You can go onto any gaming forum or go into any online game and mention SOE and get dozens of negative responses.

The station pass which was revolutionary when it was first introduced has become a joke and is known as the place where bad mmos go to get life support while SOE squeezes every last penny out of their users.

For crying out loud, let it go already, life’s too short for people to still be thrashing this dead horse. Move on or seriously consider seeking professional help, the nge and all the arguments for and against were done to death in the first 6 months. Its old news, this constant crying about it YEARS later will change nothing, it just marks you out as some sorry ass individual who has no life and cannot move on.

It was and still is only a game; take a deep breath, calm your nerves and go outside, there is life beyond SOE bashing.

Originally posted by Hexcaliber

For crying out loud, let it go already, life’s too short for people to still be thrashing this dead horse. Move on or seriously consider seeking professional help, the nge and all the arguments for and against were done to death in the first 6 months. Its old news, this constant crying about it YEARS later will change nothing, it just marks you out as some sorry ass individual who has no life and cannot move on.

It was and still is only a game; take a deep breath, calm your nerves and go outside, there is life beyond SOE bashing.

Yet you feel compelled to come into this particular forum (vet refuge no less), bash vets and hi-jack an otherwise interesting discussion .  What better advice to take than your own?  

Originally posted by Hexcaliber

For crying out loud, let it go already, life’s too short for people to still be thrashing this dead horse. Move on or seriously consider seeking professional help, the nge and all the arguments for and against were done to death in the first 6 months. Its old news, this constant crying about it YEARS later will change nothing, it just marks you out as some sorry ass individual who has no life and cannot move on.

It was and still is only a game; take a deep breath, calm your nerves and go outside, there is life beyond SOE bashing.

Ah, I'll never stop being entertained by the people that feel the need to complain about other people's complaining, when they know full well what the thread will be about when they enter it, yet they enter it anyway. Amazing isn't it?

Originally posted by Kazara

Originally posted by Abrahmm

Lets do a little bit of math just for fun and see how much the NGE has really cost SOE over the years.

Now, the magic number floating around is 200k subscribers at the time of the NGE. We will take a low ball estimate of 175k for the calculations sake(to account for loss of subscribers over time, ect) Now, 175k x $15 a month x 38 months(for the roughly 3 years since the NGE ) = $99,750,000 of subscription money over 3 years had the CU stayed in the game.

Now, lets take a rather high estimation for the NGE population of 50k subscribers over the course of it's existence.(Judging by the fact that less than 1/4 of the old servers actually have a decent population, and the vets have been able to play for free for like half the year for the last 3 years, it's probably less then this but whatever). 50k x $15 x 38 months = $28,500,000.

 

Subtract $28,500,000 from $99,750,000 and....

 

The NGE has cost SOE a total of $71,250,000.

Yes, according to my estimations, the NGE has cost SOE over 71 million dollars.

An astonishing business move by Mr. Smedley.

Well, that was fun.

 

Amazing...and your estimate is quite conservative at that. It makes me wonder how the Smedster holds on to his position at $OE after such a huge multimillion dollar business blunder. You didn't even mention the huge loss of revenue  the mass refunds for the ToOW expansion the NGE triggered.  Any idea or estimate on that?

 

Ahh yes, I forgot about the whole ToOW fiasco. No way to really estimate that as we have no way of knowing who actually got a refund and who didn't.

I'll just be happy knowing I got my $30 back.