I think Aion has a shot at least at taking 7 digit numbers in NA/Europe.  It's graphically impressive, solid game, very polished, and released by a big name company.  A bit of well-timed advertisement, and it could definitely eclipse the non-WoW market.

Originally posted by Sharajat

I think Aion has a shot at least at taking 7 digit numbers in NA/Europe.  It's graphically impressive, solid game, very polished, and released by a big name company.  A bit of well-timed advertisement, and it could definitely eclipse the non-WoW market.

Asian grinders just don't appeal to Westerners as much as other games. Sure, it will be big in Korea.

Asia is where it counts. I think for WoW subs the US has like 2.5M and Europe has like 2.5M. The other 6M of WoWs subs are in Asia so a game will have to take over Asia to compete with WoW. I think AION has a very good chance to do this. As of right now the game is doing spectacular over there. I am just waiting to see how things go afther the first month. Will the subs go up or will the go down. The days of the grinder are gone and NCSoft has buit there game knowing this and thats why its doing so well. Only time will tell.

Yeah someday when a company figures out how to win over the asian gaming market other than Blizzard.

I still believe the fact that WoW is so damn popular 95% due to the strategy games that Blizzard made before it. I have played the game a little bit, and find that it does not quite do as much as DAoC does in the sense of immersing the player into the world.

For me, in all senses, there has already existed a WoW-killer, but due to it's old age, and the non-popularity it had, since it had no popular series leading up to it, DAoC could only go so far, and so Mythic decided to choose a new form of strategy, taking a note of popularity, and advancing on the large population of WAR players out among the masses, to hopefully show that true expertise in MMO design is not in popularity, not in cartoony looks, but in the functionality.

And of course, referring to both DAoC and WAR, there is no game out there that can beat the ultimate RvR gameplay. Grrraawww, man that is a killer awesome feature.

Originally posted by Bioturn

I still believe the fact that WoW is so damn popular 95% due to the strategy games that Blizzard made before it. I have played the game a little bit, and find that it does not quite do as much as DAoC does in the sense of immersing the player into the world.

For me, in all senses, there has already existed a WoW-killer, but due to it's old age, and the non-popularity it had, since it had no popular series leading up to it, DAoC could only go so far, and so Mythic decided to choose a new form of strategy, taking a note of popularity, and advancing on the large population of WAR players out among the masses, to hopefully show that true expertise in MMO design is not in popularity, not in cartoony looks, but in the functionality.

And of course, referring to both DAoC and WAR, there is no game out there that can beat the ultimate RvR gameplay. Grrraawww, man that is a killer awesome feature.

That may be, but actually according to what Blizzard has announced WoW grew after WAR was released. 

At this stage, I don't think it has much at all to do with the RTS games.  That helped the initial push for WoW.  What blasted WoW into the stratosphere was word of mouth, and the tremendous growth the game had during 2005 when there wasn't much competition in the market.  Most of those people had not played any of the RTS series.  And at this point, on the brink of 2009, most of WoW's players are not people who played WCIII or Diablo, really. 

What sustains WoW today is the fact that it has more polish and content than any of the newer MMOs did when they were released, and millions of people have level capped characters in WoW (often more than one).  What this does is disincentivize people to level all over again in a new game, especially if that game has less content than WoW, more bugs, needs further polish and so forth.  This scenario has repeated itself in game after game after game since 2006.  At this point,  WoW's position appears to be nigh-on impregnable for the time being.

Originally posted by SaintViktor

Yeah someday when a company figures out how to win over the asian gaming market other than Blizzard.

This doesn't even begin to make sense.

Originally posted by pencilrick

And it will have to do what no recent release has done:

1)  Be polished.

2)  Be well-thought out (i.e., good design, simple and intuitive, make sense, etc...)

3)  Run well on almost any computer.

Vanguard, AOC, WAR, and a host of others have failed to really nail all three conditions.  And until they do, they cannot compete.

But WOW can be outdone (and really sort of deserves to be).

So you're saying that in the future of human history, hundreds of years from now, there will have been a game that had more subscriptions than WoW currently does...?

Epic, truly epic.

Originally posted by Bioturn

I still believe the fact that WoW is so damn popular 95% due to the strategy games that Blizzard made before it. I have played the game a little bit, and find that it does not quite do as much as DAoC does in the sense of immersing the player into the world.

And of course, referring to both DAoC and WAR, there is no game out there that can beat the ultimate RvR gameplay. Grrraawww, man that is a killer awesome feature.

Two reactions:

Most players of Wow these days didn't play the Warcraft 2 or Warcraft 3 series. A lot of older people that hardly touch computer games also play Wow. I know I skipped WC2 and WC3, because I didn't like RTS (I didn't know it wasn't a real RTS like AoE and C&C etc, because it had more adventure elements).

Secondly PvP games (or like you call it RvR) are indeed "killer" games, because they tend to ... kill off subscriptions.

Let me explain: the side that constantly gets beaten ... quits or ... joins the other side.

Since I tried to play AoC (and later a few weeks of War) I now understand these game don't last long for a player UNLESS there is a high polished and very high end PVE content to play.

War is the worst of the bunch because it only has two factions (DAoC had 3) and so you end up with  bending over to the side which wins most - if not all the time. OF COURSE some time and in some place there may be a good balanced fight on one of those servers, but that is just far too few and between to play a game where you always win or loose.

So people .... hide in scenarios because of this. And as these scenarios don't have the same game play as say open RvR, the game doesn't hold on to a decent retention rate. ...

Folllowing a path of even more unbalanced servers, half empty servers and servers without players.

it's a downward spiral that can only be broken by new players (War is sold at 30% these days) or extreme good new PVE content because you are already selling with a loss.

So yes PvP alone ... is awesome and it is indeed ... a killer.

Originally posted by bodypass 

it's a downward spiral that can only be broken by new players (War is sold at 30% these days) or extreme good new PVE content because you are already selling with a loss.

 

Indeed -- at amazon.com in the US, WAR is selling at a 54% discount, compared with AoC being discounted by 8%, and LK selling at full price, still.  By any estimate, WAR is a in a very, very bad place right now financially, but I still think that the game will survive, with a small population, so that EA can recoup the development cost, at least -- that is, if the server population stabilizes in the new year.

Originally posted by bodypass

Two reactions:

Most players of Wow these days didn't play the Warcraft 2 or Warcraft 3 series. A lot of older people that hardly touch computer games also play Wow. I know I skipped WC2 and WC3, because I didn't like RTS (I didn't know it wasn't a real RTS like AoE and C&C etc, because it had

dont forget Diablo 2

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diablo_II

awarded a spot in the Guinness Book of World Records 2000 edition

for being the fastest selling computer game ever sold, with more than 1 million units sold in the first two weeks of availability

Blizzard games were wildly popular 4 years before WOW existed

Originally posted by Somniferous

Originally posted by Sharajat

I think Aion has a shot at least at taking 7 digit numbers in NA/Europe.  It's graphically impressive, solid game, very polished, and released by a big name company.  A bit of well-timed advertisement, and it could definitely eclipse the non-WoW market.

 

Asian grinders just don't appeal to Westerners as much as other games. Sure, it will be big in Korea.

Well that's good, not a grinder.

If you mean asian games in general, I direct your attention to the Final Fantasy series.  It did reasonably well over here. 

Originally posted by Novaseeker

Originally posted by Bioturn

I still believe the fact that WoW is so damn popular 95% due to the strategy games that Blizzard made before it. I have played the game a little bit, and find that it does not quite do as much as DAoC does in the sense of immersing the player into the world.

For me, in all senses, there has already existed a WoW-killer, but due to it's old age, and the non-popularity it had, since it had no popular series leading up to it, DAoC could only go so far, and so Mythic decided to choose a new form of strategy, taking a note of popularity, and advancing on the large population of WAR players out among the masses, to hopefully show that true expertise in MMO design is not in popularity, not in cartoony looks, but in the functionality.

And of course, referring to both DAoC and WAR, there is no game out there that can beat the ultimate RvR gameplay. Grrraawww, man that is a killer awesome feature.

 

That may be, but actually according to what Blizzard has announced WoW grew after WAR was released. 

At this stage, I don't think it has much at all to do with the RTS games.  That helped the initial push for WoW.  What blasted WoW into the stratosphere was word of mouth, and the tremendous growth the game had during 2005 when there wasn't much competition in the market.  Most of those people had not played any of the RTS series.  And at this point, on the brink of 2009, most of WoW's players are not people who played WCIII or Diablo, really. 

What sustains WoW today is the fact that it has more polish and content than any of the newer MMOs did when they were released, and millions of people have level capped characters in WoW (often more than one).  What this does is disincentivize people to level all over again in a new game, especially if that game has less content than WoW, more bugs, needs further polish and so forth.  This scenario has repeated itself in game after game after game since 2006.  At this point,  WoW's position appears to be nigh-on impregnable for the time being.

Well I still do think it has a lot to do with Existing Blizzard fans.  I forget the total number but it was around 20+million Battle.net users and those people all were advertised to for World of Warcraft. 

That is a huge preset playing base of fans of Diablo, Warcraft, and Starcraft. 

Originally posted by Cabe2323

 

Well I still do think it has a lot to do with Existing Blizzard fans.  I forget the total number but it was around 20+million Battle.net users and those people all were advertised to for World of Warcraft. 

That is a huge preset playing base of fans of Diablo, Warcraft, and Starcraft. 

Yes that was the initial push, no doubt.  But it isn't what made WoW a pop culture phenomenon, the MMO your grandma plays, South Park episodes and the like.  In 2005, the game moved beyond the "Blizzard fanboi" base that helped it get started and just took off in a very unpredictable and unlikely way.

At the moment, there doesn't seem to be a lot of games coming out that will beat World of Warcraft as far as subscription base goes. Sure, there are quite a few games that are popular and are on the brink of a closed beta or being released to the world, but it's very hard to give even an estimate as to the amount of subscribers that will appear after a given amount of time.

Only time will tell. I'm sure that there will be a game at some time that will overtake World of Warcraft, but perhaps not now.

Just remember that every game loses subscribers every now and then.

There will be a WoW killer, and I won't be playing it.  Niche games that go for a kind of complexity that will keep away the masses are what I am looking for.  Any game that is actively going after WoW's subcription numbers will inherently be easy to play, shallow, and dull in my opinion.  This is how I see WoW and all the current clones, so it will be the same for any Wow- killer that appeals to WoW's base.

Hey, don't get me wrong.  I understand why people like WoW.  I say keep on making WoW clones as long as there are people willing to play them.  Just don't make them all WoW clones.  We need more devs like CCP (EVE) that understand they have a niche market, and will cater to that market rather than pander to mass appeal. Here's to hoping Earthrise and Darkfall stay on their own path, and create their own niche community of die hard fans.

Originally posted by pencilrick

And it will have to do what no recent release has done:

1)  Be polished.

2)  Be well-thought out (i.e., good design, simple and intuitive, make sense, etc...)

3)  Run well on almost any computer.

Vanguard, AOC, WAR, and a host of others have failed to really nail all three conditions.  And until they do, they cannot compete.

But WOW can be outdone (and really sort of deserves to be).

There is this game I am currently playing called atlantica online. Its a F2P MMORPG and I think these three categories are all met even better than WoW (for me)..

1. The game is polished - the game is generally polished (based from my experience).. There seems to be few bugs that I can think of but the developers are quick to patch things up.. hehe..

2. Well-though out - the game is not your typical MMO since this game introduces the  "turn-based" battle system which is unlike to typical MMOs that is hack-and-slash type which I personally find dull and repetitive.. Another new feature of this game is the option of guildmasters to govern towns and eventually form nations.. Sweet.. There are lots of new things I can post here tregarding this MMO but I will leave it up to guys to discover..

3. Run well on almost any computer - Well almost all MMOs, including atlantica, must subscribe to this priciple or risk losing potential players to try the game..

Well this is just my opinion guys (from a former player of WoW).. hehehe

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Originally posted by Bioturn
I still believe the fact that WoW is so damn popular 95% due to the strategy games that Blizzard made before it. I have played the game a little bit, and find that it does not quite do as much as DAoC does in the sense of immersing the player into the world.
For me, in all senses, there has already existed a WoW-killer, but due to it's old age, and the non-popularity it had, since it had no popular series leading up to it, DAoC could only go so far, and so Mythic decided to choose a new form of strategy, taking a note of popularity, and advancing on the large population of WAR players out among the masses, to hopefully show that true expertise in MMO design is not in popularity, not in cartoony looks, but in the functionality.
And of course, referring to both DAoC and WAR, there is no game out there that can beat the ultimate RvR gameplay. Grrraawww, man that is a killer awesome feature.

---

After your logic, there is no way that SW:TOR wont be successful right? I hope so because i think Bioware also got a huge fanbase but if they pull it over to a MMO? Time will tell.

WoW has a HUGE advantage to any other game coming out in that it is very well known so its the first thing new gamers who want an mmo look to, very few people even know of any other mmos, and its simplistic enough that even less skilled gamers can play it very well.

I've been a WoW player for some time but am trying to find a replacement for it (let's face it, the game just gets old after a while ) and have been talking to my friends about other mmos. None of them have heard of anything but WoW, WAR, AoC and a few ive played before. Most mmos just don't get enough talk outside of sites like this to attract gamers. You really have to LOOK to find mmos other than ones like WoW and WAR.