So First month is up in a few days.  Lay down your predictions.  Winner gets a Qualtoo coin.

 Oops messed it up. no 60%. 

Use this one instead :)

My prediction is 60%. It's not over reaching. There are lots of people that didn't enjoy enough to stay, but I think there are more that did.

Even so, I don't think its a relative number for the acusition numbers they'll see as the game grows. It's one of the very very very few games to come out -mostly- accepted by the community, and made progress in patches in the first few weeks, and still has many availible avenues to grow on. As time progresses, I think we'll see a large end game culture spur those that weren't convinced and those burned by other games' releases to join in coming months.

But, as to Oct 18th, I think we'll see about 60-70% retention. And that's of the 500K subs. Not the bullocks 750 they are claiming.

it's hard to predict something unpredictable HAHA...that was deep !

 isaid 70%, if they fix open rvr gains/rewards/penalties....it could be higher

Originally posted by miagisan

 isaid 70%, if they fix open rvr gains/rewards/penalties....it could be higher

I said 60% because they REALLY need to do something about low population server and thier RvR is a mess.  Messed up zone control, Scenario bleeding too many out of RvR lakes, the mismanagement of populations and realm imbalance.  Realm imbalance is especially bad because it can make open RvR and few and far between even on a populace server.

So far it looks like people are not fed up enough to just up and leave.  So I say 60%.  If Mythic does/palns something in tomorrows state of the game that addresses these then it might stay there.  Othewise I will predict retnetion will get a lot worse.  Maybe as bad as 40%.  But that will take 1-2 more months and a lot of inaction on Mythics part.

I doubt Mythic will be that inactive but some of the their solutons so far have been well pathetic.  The phase 2 experience thing was super weak.  So who knows.

I said 80%

Even though you won't have an answer..

The game isn't in AoC state (that is, a state were people still playing the game.. really like the game).. but it's not far off as far as people playing the game.. really liking it.  I'm glad to see there are less and less "Wahn Wahn Wahn.. I quit" and more constructive posts.

I chose 70% as well.  The game is ok but does not appeal to everyone.

A perfect MMO (if it were possible to make one) would have a retention of around 80% after the free month

Age of Conan had either 40 or 65% depending on when the 415k sub numbers came from (dont start that debate again please) It took people 2 months to realise that game was horrible and then it dropped really fast

Vanguard / Tabula Rasa / Hellgate London

Those had horrible retentions of between 25-50%

So my guess would be around 55-65% retention for Warhammer since its better than all those but nowhere near perfect. Xfire has an average of around 65% at this moment and will probably lower a bit more when the 19th comes.

 I chose 50% retention rate. Even that may be a bit high. WAR has limited appeal in that it is predominately a PvP game. PvE and all the fluff is viewed as lacking by quite a few people on this site.

So, for every person that tries the game, 1 will like it and 1 will hate it. In My Opinion.

Who knows?

Originally posted by Locklain

I chose 70% as well.  The game is ok but does not appeal to everyone.

An MMO that was only ok probably would have like 50% retention.  70% is quite good.

I voted 60% it's a decent game but it's a very niched game which will limit it's overall appeal to the general gamer.

They will be VERY lucky to keep 30%.

Too many of the same mistakes.Expect this game to do about what DAoC did, and follow about the same downward path.

I said 60% but it won't surprise me if it's 50%.  I hope it's 60% or better.  I'd like the game to be successful.  I'm still on the fence on whether I'm staying.

I think it's a good game, but it won't appeal to everyone.

I'll guess 60%... but it will still have more subs than all the other commercial MMOs released in the past few years :-/

i chose 70% it could be more or less who knows.  i think that ppl are screaming EPIC FAIL way to quiclkly.  its been out a month and people are already saying its dying.  give it a little time if it doesnt get better well then you can have fun somewhere else but as for me i'll stay in war and have fun.  and hope that they put the missing content in (classes, cities)

Originally posted by nikoliath

 I chose 50% retention rate. Even that may be a bit high. WAR has limited appeal in that it is predominately a PvP game. PvE and all the fluff is viewed as lacking by quite a few people on this site.

So, for every person that tries the game, 1 will like it and 1 will hate it. In My Opinion.

 

Who knows?

Some good points here.  The pve does need some work and there are some who still didn't realize that WAR was not the new and updated WoW.  Those folks are probably disappointed and will choose not to renew along with the standard MMO tards who will try a game for a month, piss and moan the whole time and then quit as if they are accomplishing some great thing by "not paying that evil MMO company my hard earned money, I'm going to make a stand!" (Btw, I have been that tard before) 

I am not even worried about the 1 month retention rate to be honest.  The numbers are going to fall off, most MMO vets know this.  I put retention at 65% for the first 3 months.  What I really want to know is the percentage of resubs after 6 months.  WoW saw a fall off in subscriptions during their first 6 months and then a dramatic increase after that.  This can be attributed to an aweful initial launch followed by rapid and excellent fixes and additions by Blizzard over the next 6 months.  Hopefully Mythic will keep working hard on things and the game will grow at that 6 month mark. 

I'd like to know what the retention rate for both sides are my guts telling me the drop out rate is going to be alot worse order side which could be really bad for the game.

Depends on how you plan to measure it.  The simplest way is to take the average of all the Saturdays  before the resub and subtract  the Saturday after the resub.

You can't really use the 'peak' saturday (first saturday) because that is unnaturally high because players play more the first week.  You also can't take the last Saturday before the resub because a lot of players who aren't resubbing have already stopped playing by then. ( I know i'm not going to grind Scenerios in a game I'm not resubing for).

probably the most statistically reliable way we have to do is to just average the 4 saturdays before and compare to the saturday after.

I'm guessing 50%.

By the way. Jacobs is a pretty smart guy.. he is going to have this huge ' state of the game' announcement hype right before the resub day which will promise a lot of fixes.   It's this type of deceptiveness that caused a lot of hate toward Funcom.   I think I'm going to do a video of it with the song "please don't go" playing in the background.

Originally posted by Azrile

....
I'm guessing 50%.

By the way. Jacobs is a pretty smart guy.. he is going to have this huge ' state of the game' announcement hype right before the resub day which will promise a lot of fixes.   It's this type of deceptiveness that caused a lot of hate toward Funcom.   I think I'm going to do a video of it with the song "please don't go" playing in the background.

You know what I am thinking ....

I am thinking of ALL of those people (100.000's) who thought FIRST they would have a good game with AOC and then 4 months later they would have a good Wow killer with WAR.

And I am thinking of all those gamers who forked out 100 Dollars/Euros or more to be taken by the marketing intelligence of these guys.

Yep, hyped marketing sells PC games alright but they don't sell long term subscriptions, that is a wise and expensive lesson to be learned these last 2 years.

The sad fact is that people don't learn from these marketing techniques that excell in hype and thin air.

They pay and they HOPE. That's why they defend the new kids on the blocks. They pay and they hope.....

Originally posted by Azrile

By the way. Jacobs is a pretty smart guy.. he is going to have this huge ' state of the game' announcement hype right before the resub day which will promise a lot of fixes.   It's this type of deceptiveness that caused a lot of hate toward Funcom.   I think I'm going to do a video of it with the song "please don't go" playing in the background.

Deceptiveness??? Really?

Hasn't mythic already made changes based on the player base?  Haven't they already asked for player feedback?

Haven't they already done all the things that Funcom hasn't?

Why now are they still considered deceptive?

They haven't once said "We're going to put this in" and then weeks later it's still not in.

The empty promises thing doesn't really work with Mythic so far.

And to bodypass.  What exactly did Mythic market that was thin air?  So far I've seen everything they marketted in the game.

Even the mice that occasionally come out of chaos players when they're hit.

Originally posted by checkthis500

Originally posted by Azrile

By the way. Jacobs is a pretty smart guy.. he is going to have this huge ' state of the game' announcement hype right before the resub day which will promise a lot of fixes.   It's this type of deceptiveness that caused a lot of hate toward Funcom.   I think I'm going to do a video of it with the song "please don't go" playing in the background.

Deceptiveness??? Really?

Hasn't mythic already made changes based on the player base?  Haven't they already asked for player feedback?

Haven't they already done all the things that Funcom hasn't?

Why now are they still considered deceptive?

They haven't once said "We're going to put this in" and then weeks later it's still not in.

The empty promises thing doesn't really work with Mythic so far.

And to bodypass.  What exactly did Mythic market that was thin air?  So far I've seen everything they marketted in the game.

Even the mice that occasionally come out of chaos players when they're hit.

During two years I've seen the most ridiculous looking game developper jumping before a camere and promising the most "awesome" kind of things we could dream off.

Have you seen the game he was talking about? Those SIX armies with 6 capitols ? That RvR that would be a blow to all we knew in the MMORPG scene?

Hope ... to get a product you paid for.

Hope doesn't deliver good games.

Not by a long shot.

Originally posted by bodypass

Originally posted by checkthis500

Originally posted by Azrile

By the way. Jacobs is a pretty smart guy.. he is going to have this huge ' state of the game' announcement hype right before the resub day which will promise a lot of fixes.   It's this type of deceptiveness that caused a lot of hate toward Funcom.   I think I'm going to do a video of it with the song "please don't go" playing in the background.

Deceptiveness??? Really?

Hasn't mythic already made changes based on the player base?  Haven't they already asked for player feedback?

Haven't they already done all the things that Funcom hasn't?

Why now are they still considered deceptive?

They haven't once said "We're going to put this in" and then weeks later it's still not in.

The empty promises thing doesn't really work with Mythic so far.

And to bodypass.  What exactly did Mythic market that was thin air?  So far I've seen everything they marketted in the game.

Even the mice that occasionally come out of chaos players when they're hit.

 

During two years I've seen the most ridiculous looking game developper jumping before a camere and promising the most "awesome" kind of things we could dream off.

Have you seen the game he was talking about? Those SIX armies with 6 capitols ? That RvR that would be a blow to all we knew in the MMORPG scene?

Hope ... to get a product you paid for.

Hope doesn't deliver good games.

Not by a long shot.

To be honest I don't think they need 6 capital cities.

Even with full first day populations, it was very apparent that 6 capital cities would dilute the playerbase too much. I think that's one of those things that seems good in theory but once put in practice isn't so great.

As far as hype goes, that is for people to decide. We aren't 8 year old kids. most of us have been around the block once or twice and some of us three times.

We should all be able to temper the marketing and excitement that any particular company generates when they are working on a new product.

Warhammer is a fun game and I've enjoyed it. But I've also had very realistic expectations (actually I had no expectations as I never intended to try it).

I think people are desperately trying to capture that "something" they had when they tried their first game and therefore no game will be able to get a fair shake.

Either that or essentially what they want is a remake of their very first game before any game changing updates but with new graphics.

That's just not going to happen.

I'm gonna be optomistic and suggest an 80% retention. After reading this thread though I'm doubting my vote!

I think realistically it will be about 70%. Mainly due to the fact that most players respect the way Mythic have been addressing issues. So yeah they will sub for the first month just to see how things go. Oh and lets not forget the people who half heartedly sign up for a 3 month sub then QQ half way. They will no doubt count for something.

Originally posted by Azrile

Depends on how you plan to measure it.  The simplest way is to take the average of all the Saturdays  before the resub and subtract  the Saturday after the resub.

You can't really use the 'peak' saturday (first saturday) because that is unnaturally high because players play more the first week.  You also can't take the last Saturday before the resub because a lot of players who aren't resubbing have already stopped playing by then. ( I know i'm not going to grind Scenerios in a game I'm not resubing for).

probably the most statistically reliable way we have to do is to just average the 4 saturdays before and compare to the saturday after.

I'm guessing 50%.

By the way. Jacobs is a pretty smart guy.. he is going to have this huge ' state of the game' announcement hype right before the resub day which will promise a lot of fixes.   It's this type of deceptiveness that caused a lot of hate toward Funcom.   I think I'm going to do a video of it with the song "please don't go" playing in the background.

I followed you right till your last paragraph.  There is no way you can objectively compare the debacle of AoC and Funcom's mismanagement of that game to the way Mythic is managing WAR to this point.  You may be right that they will come out with a state of the game address to potentially entice players who are on the bubble to stick it out for a few more months.  That's good marketing, not deception....especially when up to this point Mythic is actively responding to player concerns and trying to adjust as quickly as possible to them.  Things may not happen as quickly as some would like but really, your whole post was ruined for me by your off base assertions in the last paragraph. =/