People will drop out of this game because its not there style of game play and other people will join because it is. The big spikes you see is because of hype and free preview at the start. You see this trend in any game released. 

Regarding server status, some time ago there where about 5-7 servers with queues to log into.

Now barely one or two, so maybe the OP is right.

So.. this is what I've noticed..

AoC folks like to talk about how WAR is going to become like AoC..

And WoW folks are talking about how WAR is less of a game..

I think we got some trolls here.. Trolls be coming out!!!

So OP, you are here with Xfire statistics again. So you are now back on the "Xfire means something" bandwagon? Even though there are quotes from you that Xfire means nothing?

So which is it and please make up your mind.
 

And in the mean time, learn what statistics means and how to intrepret your data. You made so many statistical errors in your data, you would be laughed right out your argument.

Well I don't see WARs popularity going down at all.  Your asceration is shaky and unreliable at best.  However, I will state that lag in the large scale RvR battles has been a serious issue that Mythic needs to address.  There are a number of other performance issues that need addressed as well such as itemization, mail system, and balance issues, however, lag is the biggest issue for large scale RvR that if not addressed may kill WAR.

EDIT:  Tried to make the post easier to understand, and fixed some broken quotes (twice, the traditional editor keeps breaking them)
 

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Originally posted by OrionMan

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Originally posted by Vrika

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Originally posted by OrionMan
 
www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/
As you can see WAR is still dropping in popularity and if you compare WAR gamingtime Monday the 13th of Oct to Sep 29th you see there is about a -40% reduction in gamingtime and -35% reduction in gaming population
 

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According to XFire, XFire users played WAR 52 661 hours on October 29th and 38 198 hours on September 13th. That means (52 661 - 38 198) / 52 661 * 100% drop in playtime. It's about 27% drop, not 40% drop.
 

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Thanks, my bad. -27% gamingtime and -35% reduction in gamer population it is. 

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Holy crap, WAR down -20% in gametime (-19% logging customers) since last monday in Xfire:
 

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I'll mark the average gaming time of WAR player 2 weeks ago as z (z = x/y)

Counting from this, average gaming time of WAR player 1 week ago was 0.8x / 0.81y = 0.9877z minutes, wich can be rounded to about z minutes.

Now using your number that gaming population dropped 35% in two weeks, the amount of WAR gaming population on this Monday would be 0.65y.
The gamingtime this Monday (according to assumption) is 0.73x.

That would mean average player playing 0.73x / 0.65y = 1.12 z minutes, so 12% more than week before.

I can't check if your gamer population reduction is correct or not since I can't find the XFire numbers. But why on Monday 2 weeks ago and Monday 1 weeks ago, average XFire user who played WAR played about z minutes on both days, but now this Monday that same average XFire user played 12% more? Did something special happen (holiday somewhere? server problems on two previous Mondays?), or is your number of 35% reduction maybe wrong?
 

Good data analysis. So let's look at Monday...was it special?

Well, in the United States it was. It was a HOLIDAY! Many colleges and high schools had an extended weekend due to it being Columbus Day. So probably a lot of people were out and about and on vacation.

So maybe that was part of the issue?

Here's something fun to think about:

If xfire players is a good sample of the population.  That's a big IF, but we're going to assume Orionman is correct.

WoW's current numbers are around 90k.  WAR's current numbers are around 12k.  So roughly 1/8th of the numbers.

Also someone mention that Xfire is available in Europe and North America.  So going by MMOGchart numbers.  Europe and North America combined has WoW sitting at 4.5 million accounts.

Now if we're to say that WAR has 1/8th of the accounts WoW has going by the numbers on xfire for users, we can say that WAR has 1/2 a million accounts.  And if this is failing, then I don't know what failing is.

If we however use another projection.  90k is 8 million * .125.  So if we take 12k and divide it by .125 we get .5 million accounts.

And if we're going to assume that Orionman is accurate with his xfire numbers.  Then WAR has over 500k accounts.

So I'd just like to say thank you to Orionman for letting us know how successful WAR is. :) 

EDIT: Quick math doesn't equal accurate math.  Edited for stupidity and quick calculations. :p

Originally posted by checkthis500

Here's something fun to think about:

If xfire players is a good sample of the population.  That's a big IF, but we're going to assume Orionman is correct.

WoW's current numbers are around 90k.  WAR's current numbers are around 12k.  So roughly 1/8th of the numbers.

Also someone mention that Xfire is available in Europe and North America.  So going by MMOGchart numbers.  Europe and North America combined has WoW sitting at 8 million accounts.

Now if we're to say that WAR has 1/8th of the accounts WoW has going by the numbers on xfire for users, we can say that WAR has 1 million accounts.  And if this is failing, then I don't know what failing is.

If we however use another projection.  90k is 8 million * .01125.  So if we take 12k and divide it by .01125 we get 1.06 million accounts.

And if we're going to assume that Orionman is accurate with his xfire numbers.  Then WAR has over a million accounts.

So I'd just like to say thank you to Orionman for letting us know how successful WAR is. :)

One Problem in your enthousiastic reasoning....

Wow has 4.5 million subscriptions in US/EU, not 8. As not all will be playing now before the expansion of Wow, while WAR is new you should roughly take 4 million

So divided by 8 .... would mean : 500 K users for WAR only.

Now enters the best part: Mythic said 750 K "accounts created"  - whatever that means - on Oct 10th (and 500K on the first 24/48 hours).

So that means already 33% of WAR are no longer playing even before the free play time runs out.

It IS intersting to read that there are LESS players playing War (Xfire wise) than on the launching date and weekend. .... but ...

after 3 weeks their number of players has incresed with 50% according to Mythic.

..... This can only mean .... 250 K are no longer playing.

But yes a rating of about 40/50 K on Xfire could mean about 500 K active players (not subscribers but active players), as AoC also had 400 K subscribers at that period they had 40/50 K Xfire players (end of June).

So the number IS 500K not 1 M like you deducted.

I can tell you why people are not playing it.The game is an average game.The only new thing it has done is PQ's and thats it.

I can tell you this if i had purchased a CE edition of this i would be dissapointed.The game is no worse than VG or WoW ot ANY game that came out in the last 5 years.

The PvP system has no consequence to the player in a direct fashion.

This is what i call the "post hype syndrome"(PHS) when people realize that after the novelty does wear off of a new game launch that it is a standard mmo.

Originally posted by bodypass

Originally posted by checkthis500

Here's something fun to think about:

If xfire players is a good sample of the population.  That's a big IF, but we're going to assume Orionman is correct.

WoW's current numbers are around 90k.  WAR's current numbers are around 12k.  So roughly 1/8th of the numbers.

Also someone mention that Xfire is available in Europe and North America.  So going by MMOGchart numbers.  Europe and North America combined has WoW sitting at 8 million accounts.

Now if we're to say that WAR has 1/8th of the accounts WoW has going by the numbers on xfire for users, we can say that WAR has 1 million accounts.  And if this is failing, then I don't know what failing is.

If we however use another projection.  90k is 8 million * .01125.  So if we take 12k and divide it by .01125 we get 1.06 million accounts.

And if we're going to assume that Orionman is accurate with his xfire numbers.  Then WAR has over a million accounts.

So I'd just like to say thank you to Orionman for letting us know how successful WAR is. :)

 

One Problem in your enthousiastic reasoning....

Wow has 4.5 million subscriptions in US/EU, not 8. As not all will be playing now before the expansion of Wow, while WAR is new you should roughly take 4 million

So divided by 8 .... would mean : 500 K users for WAR only.

Now enters the best part: Mythic said 750 K "accounts created"  - whatever that means - on Oct 10th (and 500K on the first 24/48 hours).

So that means already 33% of WAR are no longer playing even before the free play time runs out.

It IS intersting to read that there are LESS players playing War (Xfire wise) than on the launching date and weekend. .... but ...

after 3 weeks their number of players has incresed with 50% according to Mythic.

..... This can only mean .... 250 K are no longer playing.

But yes a rating of about 40/50 K on Xfire could mean about 500 K active players (not subscribers but active players), as AoC also had 400 K subscribers at that period they had 40/50 K Xfire players (end of June).

So the number IS 500K not 1 M like you deducted.

 

Ouch, you got me.  It is 500k.  Bah.  Like I said before quick math could be wrong. :p

Asia != Europe :p

Europe + NA = 4.5 million from mmogchart.com.  I'll edit my original post and put it here as well.

562000 is the right number. :p

Which makes more sense, since new MMOs have a drop off. 

Yarg.  Oh well, my point still somewhat stands.  500k subs isn't that bad 3.5 weeks after launch.

Thanks for pointing that out.  My goal wasn't misinformation. :)

 How come X-Fire is these peoples arguement that this game is gonna fail? I don't use X-Fire, my friends don't, and im pretty sure well over 50 pct of the pop don't use it. So please, get more info. X-Fire users don' dictate the success of the game. 

If this makes you feel smart or prove a point, your so wrong. I have never seen a game get released and not have the population slowly drop. Its unheard of. ALOT of people never join a game on release because they know bugs come with new releases. So they will wait. So guess what, new players will take those spots, and probably won't use X-Fire

I just wish all these haters and people saying this game is a flop would just quit the game, the forums and go somewhere else. Your trash threads and meaningless information are not wanted here.

Results of the poll is getting very interesting. This should in fact give Mythic a good clue about what they need to work on.

Originally posted by Gregtheexcon

 How come X-Fire is these peoples arguement that this game is gonna fail? I don't use X-Fire, my friends don't, and im pretty sure well over 50 pct of the pop don't use it. So please, get more info. X-Fire users don' dictate the success of the game. 

If this makes you feel smart or prove a point, your so wrong. I have never seen a game get released and not have the population slowly drop. Its unheard of. ALOT of people never join a game on release because they know bugs come with new releases. So they will wait. So guess what, new players will take those spots, and probably won't use X-Fire

I just wish all these haters and people saying this game is a flop would just quit the game, the forums and go somewhere else. Your trash threads and meaningless information are not wanted here.

 

Every sample needs to be taken with a little "reserve", but  xfire shows what their users do. As Xfire users are part of the gaming community, they repesent "gamers using xfire". As such gamers are not from Mars or Jupiter, they behave like most other "western" gamers do.

I don't think that in these days games "grow" after the initial launch period. Too many new games, too many new releases, too many choices and hypes for "the next kid on the block".

Unless.... unless you can open up a market which is not a traditional gaming public.

Like Wow did or Nintendo did with the Wii and DS

War is too niche to enter that market (apart from what I think of it).

So the maximum number of subs War willl have is about "now", because there are no subs to pay yet....

Originally posted by bodypass

Originally posted by Gregtheexcon

 How come X-Fire is these peoples arguement that this game is gonna fail? I don't use X-Fire, my friends don't, and im pretty sure well over 50 pct of the pop don't use it. So please, get more info. X-Fire users don' dictate the success of the game. 

If this makes you feel smart or prove a point, your so wrong. I have never seen a game get released and not have the population slowly drop. Its unheard of. ALOT of people never join a game on release because they know bugs come with new releases. So they will wait. So guess what, new players will take those spots, and probably won't use X-Fire

I just wish all these haters and people saying this game is a flop would just quit the game, the forums and go somewhere else. Your trash threads and meaningless information are not wanted here.

 

 

Every sample needs to be taken with a little "reserve", but  xfire shows what their users do. As Xfire users are part of the gaming community, they repesent "gamers using xfire". As such gamers are not from Mars or Jupiter, they behave like most other "western" gamers do.

I don't think that in these days games "grow" after the initial launch period. Too many new games, too many new releases, too many choices and hypes for "the next kid on the block".

Unless.... unless you can open up a market which is not a traditional gaming public.

Like Wow did or Nintendo did with the Wii and DS

War is too niche to enter that market (apart from what I think of it).

So the maximum number of subs War willl have is about "now", because there are no subs to pay yet....

 

Wii and DS were pretty good revolutions. It's just unfortunate that they didn't really make alot of good games for the wii. I've seen maybe a select few that really utillize their new remote system the way it should be used or games that make good use of the duel screens on the DS. I guess seeing as how it's a relitivaly new design that many gaming companies have yet to utilize them to their full potential. Hopefully given time WAR will evolve to utilize it's full potential as well.

I don't know about the numbers but I gave up on Warhammer after being in beta for several months (hell after they dropped the 4 classes, I was through with the game).

My brother and his girl friend who also played throughout beta bought the game and ended up going back to WOW (I joined them) as they felt the game was rushed out too early (and they played 24/7 throughout beta).

I think, in order for you to get a good count of numbers and accurate counts you may wanna try running these numbers after the 30 day trial period ( one whole month of Mondays at least).

Makes me wonder.. all the time you guys spend trying to get some hit on this game, why don't you learn something new in that time? You just might see you aren't such an average joe after all. I play the game every night and this is what I see in one keep (multiple are being attacked)..

granted I didn't take them to show the wide popularity game, just because I thought it was neat at the time. However, it worked both ways I assume.

Hell.. just taking a SS of the Scenario town lovers is enough to say the popularity of the game.

Originally posted by bodypass

Originally posted by Gregtheexcon

 How come X-Fire is these peoples arguement that this game is gonna fail? I don't use X-Fire, my friends don't, and im pretty sure well over 50 pct of the pop don't use it. So please, get more info. X-Fire users don' dictate the success of the game. 

If this makes you feel smart or prove a point, your so wrong. I have never seen a game get released and not have the population slowly drop. Its unheard of. ALOT of people never join a game on release because they know bugs come with new releases. So they will wait. So guess what, new players will take those spots, and probably won't use X-Fire

I just wish all these haters and people saying this game is a flop would just quit the game, the forums and go somewhere else. Your trash threads and meaningless information are not wanted here.

 

 

Every sample needs to be taken with a little "reserve", but  xfire shows what their users do. As Xfire users are part of the gaming community, they repesent "gamers using xfire". As such gamers are not from Mars or Jupiter, they behave like most other "western" gamers do.

I don't think that in these days games "grow" after the initial launch period. Too many new games, too many new releases, too many choices and hypes for "the next kid on the block".

Unless.... unless you can open up a market which is not a traditional gaming public.

Like Wow did or Nintendo did with the Wii and DS

War is too niche to enter that market (apart from what I think of it).

So the maximum number of subs War willl have is about "now", because there are no subs to pay yet....

 

Im not arguing about the games overall success, its the point of people using such a bland, not overly used program to dictate the success of a game. It makes no sense. What people are failing to realise is this is not a WOW killer, or it ever was suppose to be. WOW revolutionized mmo's. Plain and simple. It will die on its on.

People just need to let go of the fact that as far as ice breaking for a new evolution in gaming is no where close. All mmo's will be same for at least another generation, its the extras that make it appealing to others. WAR isn't perfect at it yet, but with perfection comes time which people are giving it (except the haters)

People gotta come up with more usefull information on this game being a "flop" instead of x-fire. Its not a good source for a games success. Thats all there is to it.

Originally posted by Tonev

I don't know about the numbers but I gave up on Warhammer after being in beta for several months (hell after they dropped the 4 classes, I was through with the game).

 

My brother and his girl friend who also played throughout beta bought the game and ended up going back to WOW (I joined them) as they felt the game was rushed out too early (and they played 24/7 throughout beta).

I think, in order for you to get a good count of numbers and accurate counts you may wanna try running these numbers after the 30 day trial period ( one whole month of Mondays at least).

No, you're brother and his girlfriend were pure leeches to the game. Ofcourse, they're going to play it 24/7 when it is free and ofcourse they're going to say the game was rushed out too early. This the #1 statement all beta testers say and to be honest, I don't by it; you're playing a free game and you don't want to pay for it. Simply as that.

Reason I'm not playing WAR atm summed in one word: poon.