i actually kind ve like warhammer even though its not as polish as warcraft is now , still it is in its first month and i remember warcraft having all sorts of issues at the start .  i think people who are bored with warcraft would find a comfortable home in warhammer . it has a very familiar feel . the pvp i d say outshines wows also you dont have to wait a number of levels to actually experiance it in a battleground situation . i dont think it is a wowkiller but to be honest does there really need to be a wowkiller . what we want is a vibrant mmorpg market with good competition , what we ve vritually had untill now is wow virtually manopolising the market ( that is not to say games like lord of the rings or eve ar nt great but they dont have the same mass appeal ) i think thats just changed somewhat with the release of warhammer .

maybe it wont be the most successful mmo but second place is pretty good .

I can see War haveing problems in two to three months after the the frist influx of player has finished, the games simply isn't casual friendly to new players in the long run there going to be stuck grinding and level 1 pqs which I think will give the game a poor retention rate for new players in the future.

Originally posted by Abrahmm

/sigh... Another one of these threads?

No, WAR will not kill WoW, and will never kill WoW. Throw around your "750k registered accounts" all you want, but the people actually playing the game are far far less then that considering that number includes all of the open beta and preview weekend players, some of which(like me) never actually bought the game when it came out, and  the people actually playing will drop even further once the free month is over. I think WAR will settle in at around 300k subs after the first couple months, and continue to bleed off subs until it settles around 150k.

Oh, btw, I think WotLK will have more impact on WAR than WAR did on WoW.

i m not so sure the drop off will be quite as great with warhammer . even though i intend to return to warcraft and lord of the rings at some point in the future i m not going to be rushing back as soon as the lich king or mines of moria are out . had warhammer been another conan i would have left after the first month . of course i can only speak for myself and a few people i know in warhammer . the difference between warhammer and other mmos i ve seen released over the last three years is that its pretty solid . i think its regular user base with echo that . but by no means will it be as great a success as wow . i d hazzard a guess that in its first year it stay around 600k to 1 million mark . 300 k subs is about the same as lord of the rings ( i think ) warhammer has much more mass appeal than that game .

My question is, will WAR survive the next 1 or 2 years?

It's just not that fun and as people have afk'd their way (in what is a really booring BG grind) to 40, how long will they stay intrigued with the game?

I really wanted a new MMO, I bought and played the game but got fed up with it after a week or so. It's just not  fun.

As an independant analyst said, it will settle around the 250k mark. It's selling within EA expectations but not overly exceding them.

At this point AoC had 800k registered users. it means very little when they use "registered users" instead of "subscribers".

A game loosing it's subscriberbase by >25%-15% pr week will absolutely not kill anything. www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/

The consensus on the game seem to be that the game becomes boring very quickly. I bet WAR will settle at about 100 000 subs sometime after Lich king has launched.

No. The world is too empty.

Originally posted by WargPest

A game loosing it's subscriberbase by >25%-15% pr week will absolutely not kill anything. www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/

The consensus on the game seem to be that the game becomes boring very quickly. I bet WAR will settle at about 100 000 subs sometime after Lich king has launched.

 

This game kicks ass and it WILL eventually be the WoW killer.  Wait and see. :)

Originally posted by Abrahmm

/sigh... Another one of these threads?

No, WAR will not kill WoW, and will never kill WoW. Throw around your "750k registered accounts" all you want, but the people actually playing the game are far far less then that considering that number includes all of the open beta and preview weekend players, some of which(like me) never actually bought the game when it came out, and  the people actually playing will drop even further once the free month is over. I think WAR will settle in at around 300k subs after the first couple months, and continue to bleed off subs until it settles around 150k.

Oh, btw, I think WotLK will have more impact on WAR than WAR did on WoW.

You are likely to be very correct on wow expansion.  WAR had a great chance, but it may have had too much expectation built up over the past two years.

Cookies or cake? cake is better than cookies! NO! cookies are better then cake! why is this in debate?

IMHO

When contemplating wheter or not War will be a 'WoW killer', there is one single fact you might want to focus on ..

 What was WoW like after its first month?

 How does that stack up to War in its first month?

 A lot of people seem to be comparing WoW (now) to War (now). IMHo, thats a silly and unfair argument.

Originally posted by WargPest

A game loosing it's subscriberbase by >25%-15% pr week will absolutely not kill anything. www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/

The consensus on the game seem to be that the game becomes boring very quickly. I bet WAR will settle at about 100 000 subs sometime after Lich king has launched.

 

 Please. please stop using xfire as if it somehow an 'impartial' MMo game polling device.

 I dont use XFire and I have only known 1 person who used it out of (easily) over a hundred gamers that I have mer in teamspeak and in person.... and that person didn't use it much.

 Its almost as bad as using  MoveOn.org for a political poll.

Originally posted by veratutazz

IMHO

When contemplating wheter or not War will be a 'WoW killer', there is one single fact you might want to focus on ..

 

 What was WoW like after its first month?

 How does that stack up to War in its first month?

 

 A lot of people seem to be comparing WoW (now) to War (now). IMHo, thats a silly and unfair argument.

Thats abit stupid to say the least WAR isn't completing against the wow of 4 years ago it's completing against the wow thats here now it maybe unfair but thats the way it is.

Originally posted by Newhopes

Originally posted by veratutazz

IMHO

When contemplating wheter or not War will be a 'WoW killer', there is one single fact you might want to focus on ..

 

 What was WoW like after its first month?

 How does that stack up to War in its first month?

 

 A lot of people seem to be comparing WoW (now) to War (now). IMHo, thats a silly and unfair argument.

 

Thats abit stupid to say the least WAR isn't completing against the wow of 4 years ago it's completing against the wow thats here now it maybe unfair but thats the way it is.

It's not as off  the mark as it sounds. What you have to consider is growth rates. WoW didn't spring into the world fully fledged  with ten million subscriptions. It grew over a period of years.  War still has growth potential whereas the majority of people who will ever play WoW already have. I don't believe WoW is in decline but that day isn't that far off. Technology has advanced and I'm sure Blizzard is planning some new things for the future after the next round of single/multiplayer player games. War on the other hand should be getting better and gaining ground. In the end though the only thing that will kill WoW is time.

Originally posted by veratutazz

Originally posted by WargPest

A game loosing it's subscriberbase by >25%-15% pr week will absolutely not kill anything. www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/

The consensus on the game seem to be that the game becomes boring very quickly. I bet WAR will settle at about 100 000 subs sometime after Lich king has launched.

 

 

 Please. please stop using xfire as if it somehow an 'impartial' MMo game polling device.

 I dont use XFire and I have only known 1 person who used it out of (easily) over a hundred gamers that I have mer in teamspeak and in person.... and that person didn't use it much.

 Its almost as bad as using  MoveOn.org for a political poll.

 

on one day it logged 74000 hours played. Now let's assume that the average player plays an absurd amount, say 6 hours a day. That's still 12300 xfire users logging their activity in the game.

That sample size is more than adequate to determine trends. In the presidential elections they often times use smaller sample sizes to accurately predict the voting trends of 200 million people.

Originally posted by zymurgeist

Originally posted by Newhopes

Originally posted by veratutazz

IMHO

When contemplating wheter or not War will be a 'WoW killer', there is one single fact you might want to focus on ..

 

 What was WoW like after its first month?

 How does that stack up to War in its first month?

 

 A lot of people seem to be comparing WoW (now) to War (now). IMHo, thats a silly and unfair argument.

 

Thats abit stupid to say the least WAR isn't completing against the wow of 4 years ago it's completing against the wow thats here now it maybe unfair but thats the way it is.

 

It's not as off  the mark as it sounds. What you have to consider is growth rates. WoW didn't spring into the world fully fledged  with ten million subscriptions. It grew over a period of years.  War still has growth potential whereas the majority of people who will ever play WoW already have. I don't believe WoW is in decline but that day isn't that far off. Technology has advanced and I'm sure Blizzard is planning some new things for the future after the next round of single/multiplayer player games. War on the other hand should be getting better and gaining ground. In the end though the only thing that will kill WoW is time.

I'll agree that WOW will probably start it's decline soon.. probably about 6 months after wraith.  But by then it will be at about 13M and still have a long way to fall.

Now, I do think Xfire has it's uses, but lets forget about the 20%-30% drop in Warhammer and say Xfire doesn't matter..

again, lets do something I disagree with and not compare WOW today to Warhammer today. In my opinion, players have to decide 'today' where they are going to spend their time and money.. but let's drop that.

Lets compare Warhammer today to WOW 4 years ago.

WOW... 4 years ago, and to the current time, has maintained box sales in the top 10 of total game sales.  Warhammer has already dropped to #72 on Amazon's best selling games list.   While people may say that Warhammer 'may' continue to grow like WOW did 4 years ago..   I don't see how.   WOW lost a ton of players over the years.. but it always sold boxes to replace those players.  Warhammer box sales are drying up...  I'll guess that almost every day for the past two weeks the number of people who quit is higher than the number of people who bought boxes.  If Warhammer is truly growing, its box sales would have to be much higher.  Especially considering almost every MMORPG has a 25% loss after the free month.

And lets compare WOW(4yrs ago) to Warhammer today.  For about 6 months after the launch of WOW.. new servers were constantly added and EVERY server in NA/EU had a queue.  It was insane.. they would add 6 servers and they would instantly be full and yet you would see barely a drop in the queues for the old servers.  This was when WOW actually had to stop shipping boxes to retailers until they had time to get a ton more servers Online.   Now look at what happened to Warhammer.  They have a handful of servers that have queues, but the vast majority of servers (at least 60-70%) almost always never break Med/Med.  There has also not been any positive change in that trend.  There aren't any more servers hitting full/full now then there was that first friday.

Warhammer is a good game, but it's not great.  And the hype is over. There are just as many disappointed players posting everywhere as their are happy players.  I personally liked the game, but the devs made a single fundamental flaw which has completely ruined the game.   Scenarios simply are too rewarding and take too many players away from RvR.   Warhammer is RvR, and RvR has a critical mass of players needed for it to work.  That is not happening because of scenarios.  Without RvR, warhammer is a PvE and scenarios game.. and I'll stick to WOW for those features.  I wanted RvR.

hello mr troll..

my direct answer is...NO this may indeed be a pretty popular game but it can never rise up to 10 million subscribers....also your statement is false not many people are leaving wow to play war wow is already a couple hundred subs away from 11 million players.... plus when the expansion is out it'll be more... to be honest though most of the war playerbase is actually coming from games like LOTRO.

but i can assure you many players today are ready to leave war when the wow expansion is released since it will practically be ten times better than war pvp.

Of course this could be a WoW killer.  I don't think it will happen in the first year.  2nd year its possible.  3rd year is its best chance.  We will easily know by the end of the first year. 

I higly doubt it will be wow killer - But it will most likely be better MMO than WOW can ever be.  It has everything that a MMO can wish for.  With the game out and more PVE players giving feedback on what needs to be worked on - that part of the game can become even stronger than it already is.  I find the questing in the game just sooo much fun.  I love how its done but would like to see abit more challenging solo content while making the group content (PQs) suited for not just a "perfect" setup.  

I consider LOTRO and WAR to already be better MMOs than WOW.  LOTRO was not my cup of tea cause of the music playing in combats but I love how mythic have manage to create so great varieties in classes that I really can't wait to try out.

Ok for starters im playing WAR and im having a blast and love the game so before you call me a troll and all that.But nothing will kill WoW give it a Fing rest allready.Also you have to remember that 750k is every person that has registered for the free month and doesnt include anyone that has/will cancell before the free month.Once the free month is over we will start to see some numbers that matter.If they release any.Personally i dont care im having fun thats what matters.

I also think people are failing to notice that Warhammer has dropped to #72 on the sales charts.  There just isn't a huge influx of new players coming any time soon.  That 750k is about all you have to work with for the next 6 months.. we'll see how many you keep.

Originally posted by Azrile

I also think people are failing to notice that Warhammer has dropped to #72 on the sales charts.  There just isn't a huge influx of new players coming any time soon.  That 750k is about all you have to work with for the next 6 months.. we'll see how many you keep.

That means nothing since World of Warcraft is #261.

Originally posted by lorndarken

Statisticaly speaking it has success,  750,000 registered people. and rising.

I wish i could find the numbers  of popuplation decress  in wow  on a mmo site but i cant , But it seems  people cant wait to leave wow.   So i ask , Is warhammer a wow killer ?    Much like wow was a killer to most mmos around   , 2005 ,2006 , 2007?.

Now i know one single mmo dose not actully kill another mmo because people will still play the mmo, So don't get angry or think this is meant as a post to flame people or certain mmo's. But more in terms of marketing and sells that drives the game itself , Shows weather or not the game has life or not.

In other words, if the game is on the shelf  at the stores, then it must mean the game has some life still because people are buying the mmo.

Wow killer no. inface war's succes happened because of wow, Just like wow's success  happened thanks to previous mmos.

The mmo market boomed when wow, gw and eq2 came out. Wow's success was also made by blizzards Huge investment to market it world wide. They even hired big celebs world wide from different contries to promote the darn thing.Even southpark promoted it.

This is why the bliz devs mentioned alot of money is needed to make a game as successful as wow and proved to the war devs that the small amount they invested could do just as good.

Now dont get me wrong both games are great, however blizzard has and still is investing millions promoting their game while war well is not.

i also dont see war going anywhere, it will steadly increase also and prob pas 1 mil as time goes by.

as for wow players leaveing for war. those who crave pvp have probably have. but in terms of pve, bliz has everyone hyped up by allowing the release of a few senarios that poped out of the beta testers.  Knowing alone that sarufangs son dies and  that silvanas lost her city has everyone itching to play the expantion.

From what i know war has tons of lore that can be used to its advantage. all it takes is the devs to slowly polish the rvr and work overtime on making pve very fun and entertaining and use the lore to its best.

Originally posted by dougmysticey

There will never be a WOW "killer. First off, it is an anomoly I doubt we will see repeated.  A combination of timing and good design choices that allowed a person with a less than great computer to play, plus being backed by Blizzard, and it is a one off that will not come again.

That being said, other MMOs will have a measure of success. WAR will do fine as will AOC and the others that are soon to come. Each will capture their small piece of the market segment.

QFT!!!

This has to be one of the most sensible statements I've ever read here at mmorpg and I've been reading for quite some time. Short simple and honest.

Wish there were more people like this guy.

That being said I have never played WoW. I started my online gaming days in Desert Combat (a mod for BF1942), then found out about mmos through some of the people I played with and began my mmo venture with Anarchy Online. I then swicthed to EQ2 when it launched and stayed with it for a year then switched to SWG for a year and then a mix of EVE, back to EQ2....beta in TR and POTBS. I then ended up going back to SWG then to AoC and was waiting for WAR because I was waiting for a game that offered meaningful PvP.....I am now in love with WAR.

I am now waiting on STO and hopefully one day a FireFly mmo.

Originally posted by Manchine

Originally posted by Azrile

I also think people are failing to notice that Warhammer has dropped to #72 on the sales charts.  There just isn't a huge influx of new players coming any time soon.  That 750k is about all you have to work with for the next 6 months.. we'll see how many you keep.

 

That means nothing since World of Warcraft is #261.

Um..  WOW is #1 with wraith, and like #18 with the battlechest (vanilla + burning crusade), #22 with BC and #28 with vanilla WOW.   Also, they only go to #100.. which I'm guessing, in another week or two will be where Warhammer is.