Originally posted by Talyn

#1: Steefel does not say he thinks LOTRO will overcome WoW. What he said was that WoW is the only MMO to date to achieve critical mass. MMO's are social games, and within the context of sociodynamics critical mass means sufficient momentum is achieved where it becomes self-sustaining and continues to grow based on that momentum. WoW has done this by slick marketing but mostly word-of-mouth. "Everyone" plays WoW, "everyone" has heard of WoW, it's the "in" thing. That's what Steefel is hoping for, that between the game itself, the movie marketing, etc. that LOTRO will gain its own critical mass for its own growth and success. At no point is Steefel laying out numbers or saying LOTRO will "beat" WoW, WAR, or anything else. He's just wanting it to gain a self-sustaining growth.

#2: Like it or not, the subscription model's days are probably numbered. That doesn't mean it's going to happen in the immediate future, and that also doesn't mean the only other alternative is the F2P+Item Mall model. 15 years ago I was paying hourly to play what became MMO's. In the present I'm paying monthly. 15 years in the future, I suspect I'll be paying on a different model.

Stuff like this is what I was referring to when I commented on Darren's thread about your tendencies to come to these forums and put up material in an intentionally provocative manner.

I will assume I know you, and you just happen to be using a different name here...

Anyways, lets me get to your comments.

#1. How does one attain "mass market MMO success"? By either matching or overtaking the champion of this genre. I am not the only one who feels Turbine is over reaching..

Tobold

"But step 3, market dominance, seems to be totally out of reach for LotRO. Even with the Mines of Moria expansion and The Hobbit movie."

It does not matter that I wrote this, it is an overall opinion of others.

The words are not spoken, but the implications are wide reaching. By making such statements (like Codemasters Million Subscriber mark) is where the issue of language applies. You read it as he was not saying market dominance like WoW, but to reach mass market appeal, you have to get pretty darn close.

Is EQ a part of national phenomena like WoW? Do you see TV shows or commercials touting EQ? No. Thus, EQ with such a larger legacy in the MMO space cannot reach that mass market. Yet Steefel is quoting LOTRO can.

This is not just about sales. This is about becoming part of culture...mass market, and critical success...which calls to mind Stargate episodes talking about WoW..

Thats mass market.

#2. I agree, as I believe we have in the past (if you are who I think you are) that the current monthly model may not work for much longer. The Asian markets model of pay by the hour or F2P with cash shop is going to move the payment model into a different direction.

As to provocative. I see no issue with calling out something being said that could have wide implications such as what is being said by Steefel.

Want to read provocative...try this...

Tobold again says "Well, he (Steefel) sure could use some better marketing, but I don't think he'll even reach Warhammer's numbers just with that."

or

Ardwulf - "Now, maybe Mines of Moria is going to be a blockbuster expansion, introducing hitherto unseen elements into LotRO. Like fun, perhaps."

I am pretty tame....

Cheers.

I don't believe this game will ever go F2P, but what they might do is have like a 4.99/mo model in which you would then pay a bit extra for the free content updates. It seems this is something they want to do for casual gamers without as much time on there hands. Or they might chagre a small fee for access, like 4.99/mo for 30hrs of play. Something like that.

Changing the paying model doesn't mean that it's going to be F2P with item mall, GW is F2P and don't have item mall, isn't it? Well maybe they are thinking in a new system to reduce the use of huge servers, like a peer-to-peer system, who knows...

Originally posted by jarish

I don't believe this game will ever go F2P, but what they might do is have like a 4.99/mo model in which you would then pay a bit extra for the free content updates. It seems this is something they want to do for casual gamers without as much time on there hands. Or they might chagre a small fee for access, like 4.99/mo for 30hrs of play. Something like that.

This is truly what I imagine, and I think would be the most awesome move.

This would be innovative for Western audiences who like to play casually, and could be a major money maker overall for Turbine.

I imagine this more than the GW model of pay once, play forever.

GW2 I think will have to introduce a new model. Should be interesting there as well, or else, they could lose some cash big time.

Turbine could be considered a pioneer if they come out of the gate with this model.

One of the things I've noticed (hard not to notice) is that a ton of people quit after their free trial.  Maybe a cheaper, casual plan (say 10-15 hours a month of play for $5) would make them stay?

I find it hard to believe that LOTRO is such a success, though. While it seems crowded enough during prime time hours, much of the time after (or before) that it's basically a ghost town.  Hitting the O panel while I'm out in the wilderness someplace, usually there's only 1-2 other players (sometimes I'm the only one).  Good in a sense because I get minerals without much competition, but it's lousy because I have no one to group with.

Maybe it's doing a lot better in Europe?

I think they (Turbine) need to be careful abotu what they say and how they say it, that entire interview seemed to be very presumptious and speaking a little too far ahead.

But LOTRO Is very successful. My server (Brandywine) is constantly packed at all hours of the day. At night it thins out some, which is to be expected, but there's still tons of people running around.

~yawn ~

I don't marry games I just play them. If they are not fun I just delete em off my drive.Life is simple so why over analyze?  LoTRO has a free trial if people don't like it there is nothing says they have to subscribe.

I have over 750 gigs of hard drive space, plenty of room for lots of games :) I suppose if my drive was only 35 or 40 gigs I might have to be a bit more choosy. Right now I am playing LoTRO,  CoD4, and EQII. Next week I will be playing LoTRO and WAR. When Spore releases I plan on playing that also, same with Fallout 3, Moria is also on my gonna play list. Shrug