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Bent
 Novice Member
Joined: 1/22/04
PvP is not balanced unless everyone dies at the same time. |
It makes sense to me. Mythic drops classes and capitols and is thus able to get WAR shipped a number of months early, avoiding a WAR and wotlk release near the same time. Smartest thing they could of done. They will get tired WoW players and the AoC drops. As oppose to posting a Dec 2008 release date and having blizz offer a open wotlk, or SCII open beta at the same time, if not a released product. |
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In part yes.
But there are many other factors involved as well ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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I think Blizz is perfectly happy releasing Wotlk after WAR. People are more likely to stick to their last try and they probably know there'll be people who try out WAR yet will still give Wotlk a look.
Those people would probably sooner stick to WAR if they tried WOTLK first and then WAR but the other way around...
I see no reason why Blizz would've wanted to release before WAR.
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Bent
Novice Member
Joined: 1/22/04
PvP is not balanced unless everyone dies at the same time. |
Oh, I don't think blizz is in any danger. Mythic just needs high release sales to stay in the game. High release sales = increased stock prices = happy investors/parent company. If WAR and wotlk came out at the same time I think everyone would agree WAR would lose prospective sales to blizzard. By WAR coming out first and blizzard not stating a wotlk release day yet, players that are waiting for wotlk will be very prone to picking up WAR and giving it a try to pass the time. If players stay with WAR or not doesn't really matter. If release sales are high enough, Mythic will be given the okay to start work on the first expansion pack. |
Originally posted by Bent
WotLK is already in open beta, there just not gonna let all 10 million players in at once or even at all. Hold on Snow Leopard, imma let you finish, but Windows had one of the best operating systems of all time. If the Powerball lottery was like Lotro, nobody would win for 2 years, and then everyone in Nebraska would win on the same day. AMD 4800 2.4ghz-3GB RAM 533mhz-EVGA 9500GT 512mb-320gb HD |
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dude WotLK is gonna beat WAR no matter how much earlier they release it. i do wanna play WAR but i doubt its gonna be the "WoW killer" itll be up there with WoW, but it wont dominate it like most ppl are thinking Playing:WoW,Guild Wars |
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Originally posted by hXcFecal
I don't think anyone here thinks it will kill WoW. It will grab a nice size number of PvP fans and a good amount of people new too mmos. 2million tops but that will still be very good, Hold on Snow Leopard, imma let you finish, but Windows had one of the best operating systems of all time. If the Powerball lottery was like Lotro, nobody would win for 2 years, and then everyone in Nebraska would win on the same day. AMD 4800 2.4ghz-3GB RAM 533mhz-EVGA 9500GT 512mb-320gb HD |
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Originally posted by Bent I think you are most likely correct.This same thing back in the EQ2/WOW releases.Eq2 said they could meet a early release and it scared Blizzard so much that they released WOW like 2 weeks later ,even though it wasn't quite ready,by there own standards.Both SOE and Blizzard wanted pre christmas releases.Also remeber that kids will be going back to school soon,so they need to get those bored at home kids buying them up before they go back and won't have the time. |
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Bent
Novice Member
Joined: 1/22/04
PvP is not balanced unless everyone dies at the same time. |
WAR subscriptions won't matter until a year or so after release. Mythic has enough backing to easily get them through one year game upkeep. What matters is, what kind of press release they will be able to put out within three months of release. If they can say they sold 500k units within 3month, they are golden until the first expansion comes out, regardless of whether 1/3 of those players return to WoW for WotLK. Investors/parent company EA will see 500k units sold and see that funds are available to get an expansion pack developed. If only 150k units sold the first 3mo, an xpac would be long in waiting.
I personally expect 250k+ box sales within a month of release and that number building to 500k+ within six months. It really depends on how stable the launch is. If launch is very stable and playable I could see 500K units sold within 3 months and bridging 750k within a year. DAoC never had over 1mil subs as I am aware, and alot of the DAoC players are now older and have families that took them away from MMOs. I don't expect more than 1/3 of past DAoC players to make it to WAR. Maybe more if Mythic offers some returning customer deal. |
Originally posted by Bent
Your being funny right? AoC had 3 times that during the first month and they only had 1/2 the beta applications that Warhammer has. 250k box sale is a joke :) My guess is 1 mil box sale during first month.
Like many others I also believe War is being released in september to not have to face off directly against wotlk. It would be a marketing disaster if they did, most people would rather stick with what they know than try something new. They already said in an interview that they could have gone to EA and asked for more funds and they would have given it to them. |
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Originally posted by Bent
The target customers of War and WoW are different. War = full PvP/RvR oriented game WoW = PvE/raiding oriented game with some instanced PvP flavor Of course many people will try both, but in the end if you are a true PvP/RvR fan you will stick with War, if you are a raider you will play WoW.
For the sale numbers: 1.25 million upto 1.5 million in the first month. After all, even AoC with half the features sold 750k. ----------------------------- Ted Treffon: I don't represent Hardbodies. Ted Treffon: No, I don't represent that either. |
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Quite possible but I really do think that it has alot to do with EA pressure to release and Mythic possibly running out of funds to support further content at this time. |
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I predict WotLK will fail if it costs $50 while WAR a full game would also cost $50...am I right? |
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Originally posted by Magter
not how the industry works, WotLK could be $60 and still sell millions easy. |
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Originally posted by Magter
blizzard is the only company to get away with 40$ expansions
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I think both will do fine. World of Warcraft is too rooted to be so easily toppled by another game this early, less known games are still up and kicking after all.
For sure Warhammer will take a decent chunk of WoW's playerbase, mostly people looking for something new, but it will hardly overshadow WotLK because that expansion has a lot of things that will make current wow players giggle with joy.  |
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Originally posted by Myrdek
Your being funny right? AoC had 3 times that during the first month and they only had 1/2 the beta applications that Warhammer has. 250k box sale is a joke :) My guess is 1 mil box sale during first month.
Like many others I also believe War is being released in september to not have to face off directly against wotlk. It would be a marketing disaster if they did, most people would rather stick with what they know than try something new. They already said in an interview that they could have gone to EA and asked for more funds and they would have given it to them.
AoC had both larger beta sign ups and beta invites than WAR. I expect 400K sales, 200K subs retained. Mythic has one month to get ready for launch. They talk about being feature complete but once NDA is dropped we can talk more about what did and did not make the feature list. |
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Originally posted by Solude
AoC had both larger beta sign ups and beta invites than WAR. I expect 400K sales, 200K subs retained. Mythic has one month to get ready for launch. They talk about being feature complete but once NDA is dropped we can talk more about what did and did not make the feature list. dude those numbers are way to low. First off what your saying is tha half the people who signed up for beta will not play. Further you suspect 1/4th of beta players will still play. This game has the most hype hands don, not even generated by them, but by the players, Im honestly suspecting 1mil within a month, retain 800,000 and if good, will go up from there.
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At the begining of 2009 we'll know how "good" the game is... since by then we'll have the first "filtered" subscription numbers... But also i have my suspicions that there will be some problems... Mark said they still want 3 things implemented before the NDA drops... i guess one was the graphics engine improvement we heard about recently... one is the (can't say, nda)... but IMHO it's bad this is still not in yet... but then again it's more or less simple to implement... and the thrid, i have no idea :o) But when i hear from gamespy that one of the mastery tree skills isn't even ingame yet... 1 month before launch... that DOES make me worried... again... skills are not hard to implement but then again, aoc concentrated on dance emotes instead of fixing game breaking bugs... Let's just wait till the NDA drops before any guesses... And as to why they release early... only mythic knows |
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Originally posted by Myrdek
Your being funny right? AoC had 3 times that during the first month and they only had 1/2 the beta applications that Warhammer has. 250k box sale is a joke :) My guess is 1 mil box sale during first month.
Like many others I also believe War is being released in september to not have to face off directly against wotlk. It would be a marketing disaster if they did, most people would rather stick with what they know than try something new. They already said in an interview that they could have gone to EA and asked for more funds and they would have given it to them.
They sold out of over 150,000 COLLECTOR'S EDITIONS. I'd be shocked if Warhammer wasn't at over 1 million boxes after 1 month. - - - |
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Originally posted by JonnyBigBoss
They sold out of over 150,000 COLLECTOR'S EDITIONS. I'd be shocked if Warhammer wasn't at over 1 million boxes after 1 month. i thought it was only 60k collectors? 50k us and 10k EU o.O 
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But as a long time Wow player and a long time beta member of WAR, WAR is a breath of fresh air. PvP wise it blows WoW out of the water. In all honesty in the fantasy genre it blows any game out of the water to date. Other than lacking full loot like UO, best PvP game yet. And to the OP, the capital cities were not taken out to push the game out sooner. They were taken out because it makes sense. There is NO way that there will be enough people fighting on all fronts to take 3 citites at a time. |
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It won't take WoW's place, WoW is simply too big and too fashionable (an MMO to becoming mainstream would've been unthinkable before WoW). I'd say WoW has one more expansion pack left after WotLK. Its population is already decreasing (WoTLK will give it a 6 month surge) and each new expansion pack makes all the older content obsolete which will make players less likely to stick with it. However second place is still extremely lucrative and it's looking at the moment that WAR will easily take that. There's a lot of hype around it and unlike AoC, it's not going to have a huge portion of its playerbase leave after a couple of weeks. |
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Originally posted by PureChaos
AoC had both larger beta sign ups and beta invites than WAR. I expect 400K sales, 200K subs retained. Mythic has one month to get ready for launch. They talk about being feature complete but once NDA is dropped we can talk more about what did and did not make the feature list. dude those numbers are way to low. First off what your saying is tha half the people who signed up for beta will not play. Further you suspect 1/4th of beta players will still play. This game has the most hype hands don, not even generated by them, but by the players, Im honestly suspecting 1mil within a month, retain 800,000 and if good, will go up from there.
Signing for a beta to test the game = free Buying a game you never played = 50$/€
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I think it's a stupid move to make war with WOW because you just ain't gonna win and you'll come off worse with less subscribers than if you just wait until all the WOW people are bored of WoTLK. |
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