Age of Conan

This time next year, (Summer 2009), we'll have these games to choose from;

1. WoW: Wrath of the Lich King
2. Warhammer Online
3. Age of Conan
4. The Chronicles of Spellborn
5. Aion
6. Stargate Worlds
7. Huxley (unsure of this one's release date?)
8. Darkfall...sighs..nuff said 'bout this one's release
9. Earthrise, (again unsure about true release date?)

In truth, folks where do you actually believe AoC will fall in overall popularity by Summer of 2009 with all these upcoming choices?  My guess is that Aion is going to be the sleeper actually giving both WAR and WoW a good run for it's money, based on the world-wide fan base for the similar,but different Lineage 2. TCoS will have something to say as well in this mix as it will be popular to many, especially in Europe.  Stargate Worlds could grab many sci-fi fans if it works as hoped.  The rest on the list, I simply don't know enough about.

We must remember what over-hyping does to a game and it's company. Sigil/SoE's Vanguard had this to deal with at release and it was an "EPIC failure", only now becoming playable and interesting after over one year of release.  Both AoC and Warhammer have slammed us with hype and commercial offers for at least a year now.  Are we witnessing what a player base's expectations are based on over-hype with FunCom's AoC?  Possibly not as bad a failure as Vanguard, but a close second, I wager.

NCSoft and TCoS have been very, very conservative with the amount of information released about their upcoming offerings.  This bodes well I have to say.  Less of those overwhelming and sometimes unrealistic expectations upon release.  Thus, it could be that these two MMO's may possibly be very successful and compete very well with WoW and WAR.  Warhammer most certainly will have a faction imbalance, possibly and is so very similar in style to WoW.  I said similar, NOT exactly!  NCSoft produce Lineage and later Lineage 2.  Arguably L2 was the world's most popular MMO from April to December of 2004 before the release of EQ 2 and WoW.  It remained a close competitor even into 2005.  Not until 2006 did L 2 begin to wane in popularity.  I base my attitude of Aion based on these past historical observations.  Aion may not be on top by Jan 2010, but I'll bet it will be in the top 3.  TCoS could very well be right up there with the top guns as well, based on what I have read on their official forums and the following they have built from the past several years of development.

Will be very interesting to watch all this transpire going into next year.  We shall see, won't we?

can add a few more

DC Universe MMO is expected for 2009

www.massively.com/2008/06/27/dc-universe-online-details-emerge/

Lego Universe is 2009

www.massively.com/2008/07/06/lego-universe-revamps-website-and-opens-the-creation-lab/

and who knows what else

that said --- MMO tastes are different for everyone

IF all these titles meet their release dates, or even come close it will be a great thing. To long has there been little to no new quality MMOs realease.

That said, I think the game(s) that hold off on rushed releases to meet artificial or marketing inspired release dates will be the most popular. If there is one thing we have seen with the AOC release, people no longer are willing to accept unfinished games. Honestly, I think the biggest reason for the AOC unrest is the fact that the features hyped and even ON THE BOX are not in the game. To me that is completely false advertising boarding on fraud.  Not working quite right, expected. Some unforeseen bugs and balance fixes needed, expected.

But to release a retail box with all these fabulous features and then load up the game and they are not included is, as I said, Fraud. If I went down to BEst Buy and made picked out say a DVD player based on the features listed on the box, then   got it home and low and behold it actually didn't have those features, ya I would be returning it to the store, demanding my money back and probably never trust in that company again. Because it is a video game makes no difference in my mind. Its a consumer product. The ad features need to be in the game at launch.

Realistically, no one expects a game at launch to be bug free and polished like a 4 year old game. Some things do not come to light until a players base on mass  has at it. But to use AOC as an example. Unacceptable IMO.

1) WoW will destroy AoC in both sales and subs

2) WAR will also destroy AOC in subs, dunno about sales.  Probably WAR will initially sell similar maybe slightly less  to AoC but its retention will be double AoC and will not have the truly gigantic drop in sales/subs that AoC is now having

3) Chronicles, Aion, earthrise  - meh some buzz on these but I just don't see them catching on that much.  Probably similar to AoC's eventual ~200k subs

4) I really do not think Stargate worlds will do well

5) Huxley - I dunno isn't that an FPS and not a RPG?  that makes comparison hard.  Also itsbeen in development and pushed back and such eh meh

6) Darkfall is vaporware not even gonna speculate

darkfall vapurware... earthrise coming out in sum 09, my balls it is. only interesting one is huxley which is an instanced FPS. war will be popular but then we all know why.

I woudl say the game would last will summ 09 but the current patchs are a pile of crap that break more things than fix.

You know....I would do anything....anything(well anything within reason of course) to have a good sci-fi game come along.  
With massive seamless worlds to explore.   Start with like 5 worlds and build from there.   Whole worlds.  Not half-baked ones.   With their own mobs, races, cultures.  Try to add at least 2 new worlds every six months.   The tech is here to do this.   With the right people and proper tools I believe it can be done. 
Instances - like your own house, apartment to keep unwelcome visitors out - toggable - so people can enter whenever they want.
FPS style combat for ranged attacks.  
Yes melee would be viable since players would have to aim with their ranged weapons.
Trading.  
Crafting.  
Resource gathering. 
Ships we can fly in the atmosphere as well as in space - and you don't ahve to wait till 40 to get one!  Get the money, train the skill and buy one!
Mounts!  You don't would have to be 40 to get one!  Just get the money train the skill and buy one!  
Full on PvP...with the ability to loot corpses(to some extent).  
PvP rulesets that would discourage and punish griefers (harshly).
New voice tech added for chat - like proximity and morphing abilities.  Ugh I can't stand looking at a PC that is a girl and hearing a guys voice come on vent for it.   :(  So we'd figure out a way to fix that!  ^_^
It would be a leveless game.  
Skill based.  The more your character uses a skill the better they get at it - never caps...but eventaully will be almost impossible to get enough points to raise it.
No classes per se, but your skills determine your class.  
Stats that determine what skills you can get.  
Graphics would be like WoW's just a little better in the realism.  
Lots of cool emotes.  
The game would provide lots of tools for RP'ers.
Housing.  Becoming a part of a city in game.  
PC owned shops, that have NPC vendors when you're not online or off doing other things in game.
I'd elimante the grind by having the game randomly generate quest and missons.  
Missions and quest would scale to the abilities of the player/s involved  - (no more "Oh damn I cannot do that quest because I out leveled it!) 
Some story driven content that would be added on a monthly basis.
Players can have an impact on the game and how it progresses.
There would be no raids!   
No PvP gear.   Gear is gear.  Lots of cool gear mind you though.  
I'd have loot that drops with randomly generated stats like the way AC's did. 
Crafted gear has the potential to be better than looted gear (key word potential). 
MoBs would have better AI then we see in current games and they would scale with the player in some cases. 
Content would be added and the players would not know until they discovered it. 
Good players that frequently report flaws or bugs would be rewarded and might even be asked to become members of a special team of game testers to try out new content.
Excellent customer service.  Not half arsed.   But excellent.
Above all else - the game would reek of fun!

If I had the money and the means I would make such a game. 

I actually think i will step off The MMorpg train, and cruise abit in a smart little MiMorpg. Mini multiplayer online role playing game(!!). Or in other words; i think im going to play Diablo 3.

I miss the old isometrich view. Most of the 3d mmo`s just dosnt tickle my dream away parts. They are like crappy, uninspiring IRL simulations. Isometrich 2d games are like fine toys. They leave abit to the imagination. And they focus more on gameplay, then game engine. And are better at creating atsmopheres.  Like kids who enjoy playing with small toycars more then sitting in those noisy, Police cars with  nauseating movements, toystores placed at theier fronts. Short version; im abit tired of beeing forced into a 3d world, mainly created by geeks.

But if i had to estimate....

1.Wow will climb to 14-15 mill

2.Warhammer will have around 6-700k -they will prolly have to much blizz competetion.

3. Aion can end anywhere between 150k and 2mill sub`s

4. Star gate World. Prolly like Tabula rasa when it was on its highest ( at launch?)

5. Chronicle. I think this game will end up with a small but tight and fanatic community.

6. Aoc will float away with very low subs for a periode. After a year it might become popular again; when ppl have forgot most of the troubles they had...

7. Huxley will reveal itself as a shooter.

8. No idea where Darkfall is..

9. Earthrise.  Seems like the game lack like 95% production time,  However if they nail that Fallout feel; count me in...

Thanks to everyone's input here.  As we all realize nothing's written in stone until the games are released.  We can only surmise what it will be.  I suppose that's half the fun of all this. 

I do believe thus far everyone has some good points in their estimations.  Blizzard will be the only factor in the demise of it's current "flagship".  Somewhere along the Blizz rumor mill you can find that many believe Blizz's next great offering in the MMO market will indeed be a sci-fi styled game.

At any rate, whatever that gaming giant does in the future, I hope they will improve game design/graphics, communications, tech support, and animation engine, to name a few.  Upgrade for the 21st century in other words.

I might also add as a question here what are top four or five gaming developers at this time?  As of now, I see three powerhouses; Blizzard, Mythic, and NCSoft.  Any others that are just as well-suited to foot the bill for designing and marketing new games?  I do believe we are going to start seeing more hyper-intensive commercials online as well as on Television possibly as soon as this Christmas season.  Anyone have a feel for this prediction?

Thanks again ladies and gentlmen for your input, makes for an interesting thread.