General Discussion

Originally posted by Delanor

Originally posted by SgtFrog

TCOS

200K USA

150K EU

500K Asia

 

 

No, no, no.
 

 

TCOS

50K USA

450K EU

2M Asia

50K US

50K EU

150k Asia

At best.

Originally posted by bluealien1

Originally posted by Delanor

Originally posted by SgtFrog

TCOS

200K USA

150K EU

500K Asia

 

 

No, no, no.
 

 

TCOS

50K USA

450K EU

2M Asia

50K US

50K EU

150k Asia

At best.

You better watch your heart then.

wat exactly are u guys doing?

i mean think about it.

Originally posted by Delanor

Originally posted by bluealien1

Originally posted by Delanor

Originally posted by SgtFrog

TCOS

200K USA

150K EU

500K Asia

 

 

No, no, no.
 

 

TCOS

50K USA

450K EU

2M Asia

50K US

50K EU

150k Asia

At best.

 

You better watch your heart then.

There is absolutely nothing indicating that TCOS will do well in asia, nothing at all. considering how many western mmorpg's have crashed and failed in Asia, TCOs has the odds against it and it's quite shocking how little hype there is.

[quote]That's right, I believe that by two years Warhammer will more active US subscribers than WoW. The writing is on the wall. I have been following message boards for many months now, and currently Warhammer has a buzz that AoC and others never had. The US market is dying for something new
Of the current 10 million WoW has, 5.5 million of them are the Asian market. The remaining USA and Europe market will be pulled away. I listed some other "notables", so please dont ask why I didn't include "X" game. I think the MMO market is starving for something new so that's why I feel Darkfall at 200k will be somewhat of a success. I didnt list LOTRO or Vanguard because I think their numbers will stay the same.
The main point here is, I think if Warhammer turns out to be everything that is promised, the US market will jump on it.

Thoughts?[/b][/quote]Warhammer isn't revolutionary enough to steal the market share from WoW.

And basing a forecast on forums?

Originally posted by brostyn

Originally posted by donjn

 
That's right, I believe that by two years Warhammer will more active US subscribers than WoW. The writing is on the wall. I have been following message boards for many months now, and currently Warhammer has a buzz that AoC and others never had. The US market is dying for something new

 

Then we are going to be sorely disappointed according to a lot of reports. I'm not saying WAR won't be a fun game. WoW is obviously a fun game. A little too generic, but obviously fun to millions of people. WAR has stated they are looking to copy WoW's hand holding and WoW's low computer requirements. Why would established WoW players quit their toons to start a very similar game? Maybe, just maybe WAR will be different enough from WoW to attract those of us who want a bit more depth in a game. I dunno, we shall see.

Why would established wow  subs cancel for WAR? Its simple really. WoW has gotten a fairly large PvP crowd and when they hear how much better WAR's pvp is they will move. As to PvE thats yet to be seen. WAR has some neat PvE ideas (ToK and public quests) and if thoes are a sucsess they could easily pull some of the non raiding PvE crowd as well.

Games like Darfkall, Spellborn, Ryzom, Mortal, Earthrise, and Fallen Earth will find some success with niche crowds, but nothing huge.  They don't need to be huge to provide what the people who want to play them need. 

WoW will have a surge from WotLK, but then their subs will drop after the content is gone to around 7-8 million by 2010.  WAR may get 1-2 million concurrent subs that last until 2010 due to the style of game play.  (RvR to many players can become tedious and arcade like which eventually wears off...).  Aion will also pull together 1-2 million concurrent subs that last until 2010 hurting WoW's asian market.

Then Blizzard will release their new and upcoming MMO sometime around 2010-2011 and many low budget games will die, WoW numbers will drop drastically as will WAR's.  Aion will remain strong due to the asian market.

....

The US market is dying for something new

The problem is, Warhammer isn't anything new.  It's basically DAoC with WoW skins.

....

 if Warhammer turns out to be everything that is promised....

What MMO has ever turned out to be everything that was promised?

Long story short, there is no reliable way to predict which MMOs will succeed and which ones will not.

Nobody reasonably believed that WoW would have 10 million subscribers by now.

Nobody reasonably predicted that AoC would sell out from stores in a week and ship a million copies in its first month.

Nobody reasonably predicted that SWG and Vanguard would be a complete and utter flop.

Warhammer looks solid so far, and I cant rule out that the OP will be right.

Of course, such a massive success as WoW can only be reached and beaten if you have the advertisement for it. Does Warhammer have it ?

AoC had the advertisement. Somehow EVERYONE talked about AoC before its release. If that game would have rocket, it would have actually been able to beat WoW. Not at release and not in the course of a year, but over the years. Of course it was always what it was and people where very delusional about its nature. Just reading the Wikipedia entry clearly showed its nature, and the final game was just exactly just that. So even if it would have rocket in every other aspect, which it never was intended to do - too high hardware requirements and too violent content where the killers for the idea of a WoW-like success of that game.

Warhammer has none of these flaws. But its a very specialized game, for all I know. Do really that many people like this cross between strategy games and roleplaying games, called RvR ? Personally, I dont like strategy games, and I hate the idea of being part of one. I dont know the opinion of the general public in this respect, though.