General Discussion

Here is my prediction two years from now, Summer of 2010...

World of Warcraft: 9 Million
7 Million Asia
1 Million USA
1 Million Europe

Warhammer: 4 Million
2 Million USA
1 Million Europe
1 Million Asia

Other Predictions..

Age of Conan
300k total

Darkfall (yes it will be released)
200k total

That's right, I believe that by two years Warhammer will more active US subscribers than WoW. The writing is on the wall. I have been following message boards for many months now, and currently Warhammer has a buzz that AoC and others never had. The US market is dying for something new

Of the current 10 million WoW has, 5.5 million of them are the Asian market. The remaining USA and Europe market will be pulled away. I listed some other "notables", so please dont ask why I didn't include "X" game. I think the MMO market is starving for something new so that's why I feel Darkfall at 200k will be somewhat of a success. I didnt list LOTRO or Vanguard because I think their numbers will stay the same.

The main point here is, I think if Warhammer turns out to be everything that is promised, the US market will jump on it.

Thoughts?

Originally posted by donjn

 

Here is my prediction two years from now, Summer of 2010...

World of Warcraft: 9 Million
7 Million Asia
1 Million USA
1 Million Europe

Warhammer: 4 Million
2 Million USA
1 Million Europe
1 Million Asia

Other Predictions..

Age of Conan
300k total

Darkfall (yes it will be released)
200k total

That's right, I believe that by two years Warhammer will more active US subscribers than WoW. The writing is on the wall. I have been following message boards for many months now, and currently Warhammer has a buzz that AoC and others never had. The US market is dying for something new

Of the current 10 million WoW has, 7 million of them are the Asian market. The remaining USA and Europe market will be pulled away. I listed some other "notables", so please dont ask why I didn't include "X" game. I think the MMO market is starving for something new so that's why I feel Darkfall at 200k will be somewhat of a success. I didnt list LOTRO or Vanguard because I think their numbers will stay the same.

The main point here is, I think if Warhammer turns out to be everything that is promised, the US market will jump on it.

Thoughts?

sure, i'll play...

World of Warcraft: 12 Million
8 Million Asia
2 Million USA
2 Million Europe

Warhammer: 4.5 Million
1 Million USA
1.5 Million Europe
2 Million Asia

Other Predictions..

Age of Conan
200k total

Darkfall (yes it will be released)
75k total

I actually think it will beat WOW in NA. Asia i don t think so as you said as well, but you never know.

sure, i'll play...

 

World of Warcraft: 12 Million
8 Million Asia
2 Million USA
2 Million Europe

Warhammer: 4.5 Million
1 Million USA
1.5 Million Europe
2 Million Asia

Other Predictions..

Age of Conan
200k total

Darkfall (yes it will be released)
75k total

So you think in two years WoW will gain 2 million users?

Can you explain why you think this? I have seen evidence of WoW slowdown. Maybe not a drop off but they definitely aren't gaining subscriptions, except in Asia of course lol.

I don't want to spread false information, but I'm certain I read that there would be local servers for Taiwan and Hong Kong (thus China) and this indicates (the bit I'm not sure about) there will be a Chinese language client.

If this is the case, I think your Asian subscriber predictions are too low.

3 mil users more actually.  the expansion coming out is a big factor.  in 2 years you're going to see maybe 1-2 more expansions.

also i really think people are underestimating WoW subscribers cancelling to move to WAR.  i'm sure people will reply saying they will but i think (at least for 6 months or so) lots of WAR players will still keep their WoW active "just in case".

Your base WoW numbers are incorrect.

WoW has 2.5 million US subscribers and 2 million European and 5.5 million in Asia as of their last press release.  That was prior to their announcement of 10.7 million subs so I would guess it is an even spread considering the game is still on the best seller charts.

I think even with Warhammer WoW overall will see an increase of subs if they launch in Russia this year or early next, but it will see a decline in Warhammer countries.

That being said I think you are right that the market is starved for a new game.  Your numbers look right, but I don't think Warhammer will get 2 million U.S. seeing that the game is so PvP heavy, unless the US market doubles in size compared to todays total numbers.  Personally, I've never been impressed with Mythics PvE designs so I don't know if they will have the staying power to attract and hold that crowd, but anything is possible I guess. 

Originally posted by donjn

 
That's right, I believe that by two years Warhammer will more active US subscribers than WoW. The writing is on the wall. I have been following message boards for many months now, and currently Warhammer has a buzz that AoC and others never had. The US market is dying for something new

Then we are going to be sorely disappointed according to a lot of reports. I'm not saying WAR won't be a fun game. WoW is obviously a fun game. A little too generic, but obviously fun to millions of people. WAR has stated they are looking to copy WoW's hand holding and WoW's low computer requirements. Why would established WoW players quit their toons to start a very similar game? Maybe, just maybe WAR will be different enough from WoW to attract those of us who want a bit more depth in a game. I dunno, we shall see.

Originally posted by donjn

 

Here is my prediction two years from now, Summer of 2010...

World of Warcraft: 9 Million
7 Million Asia
1 Million USA
1 Million Europe

Warhammer: 4 Million
2 Million USA
1 Million Europe
1 Million Asia

Other Predictions..

Age of Conan
300k total

Darkfall (yes it will be released)
200k total

That's right, I believe that by two years Warhammer will more active US subscribers than WoW. The writing is on the wall. I have been following message boards for many mo