Another speculation thread with all resources of no hard facts and even more redundant speculation. Face this fact. Turbine doesn't have to tell you how many people play there games. Get Over It.

the way i see it.....the only reason theyre marking an expansion is because of the high demand for more content.....wouldnt it make sence that they have a lot of subs because theyre marking an expansion?

The real question is this: who cares? If the game is still profitable, and there are people to enjoy it with (groups/raids/MPvP), what does it matter how many people are playing.

Originally posted by solareus

Another speculation thread with all resources of no hard facts and even more redundant speculation. Face this fact. Turbine doesn't have to tell you how many people play there games. Get Over It.

Well, noone accuses LoTO of being a bad game. We are just speculating and trying to come up with a number. I dont understand why you appear so offended. I think that the OPs analysis looks correct. "Get over it"?

Also, about this article in businessweek. I can't beleive that they are publishing such a crappy news report. Apart from the completely foobar 800k number and the 5 chars per subscription "fact" they also say that "Well now that they have 800k subs, they are *propably* profitable". These guys obviously have absolutely no clue about the MMO industry. Because if LOTRO is struggling to have a profit with 800k subs, what should happen to the hundreds of MMOs that have much less than that? An MMO can be profitable with 10k subs, but these guys in bussinessweek are just clueless.

Originally posted by huxflux2004

 

Originally posted by solareus

Another speculation thread with all resources of no hard facts and even more redundant speculation. Face this fact. Turbine doesn't have to tell you how many people play there games. Get Over It.

 

Well, noone accuses LoTO of being a bad game. We are just speculating and trying to come up with a number. I dont understand why you appear so offended. I think that the OPs analysis looks correct. "Get over it"?

 

Also, about this article in businessweek. I can't beleive that they are publishing such a crappy news report. Apart from the completely foobar 800k number and the 5 chars per subscription "fact" they also say that "Well now that they have 800k subs, they are *propably* profitable". These guys obviously have absolutely no clue about the MMO industry. Because if LOTRO is struggling to have a profit with 800k subs, what should happen to the hundreds of MMOs that have much less than that? An MMO can be profitable with 10k subs, but these guys in bussinessweek are just clueless.

You can not create a fact out of speculation.

Originally posted by solareus

 

Originally posted by huxflux2004

 

Originally posted by solareus

Another speculation thread with all resources of no hard facts and even more redundant speculation. Face this fact. Turbine doesn't have to tell you how many people play there games. Get Over It.

 

Well, noone accuses LoTO of being a bad game. We are just speculating and trying to come up with a number. I dont understand why you appear so offended. I think that the OPs analysis looks correct. "Get over it"?

 

Also, about this article in businessweek. I can't beleive that they are publishing such a crappy news report. Apart from the completely foobar 800k number and the 5 chars per subscription "fact" they also say that "Well now that they have 800k subs, they are *propably* profitable". These guys obviously have absolutely no clue about the MMO industry. Because if LOTRO is struggling to have a profit with 800k subs, what should happen to the hundreds of MMOs that have much less than that? An MMO can be profitable with 10k subs, but these guys in bussinessweek are just clueless.

Bottom Line.

 

You can not create a fact out of speculation.

Of course not. But why do you get pissed about it? Does this thread affect you in any way as a LorRO player?

The only ones that get pissed off are those that wish there were some opposing evidence that the player versus artificial intelligence LoTRO did better, or those that are invested into LoTRO in some way.

Most of us find knowing MMO subscription numbers interesting, it's fun to know how many people are playing a game with you.

One thing is for sure, Turbine is inviting people to estimate subscription numbers by not releasing the numbers themselves.  The only reason Turbine has to not release the numbers, is if they fall far below expectations.  You can be sure that if LoTRO was even near 1 million subscribers, they would be announcing it publicly everywhere.  So the fact that a company does not release any type of subscription numbers is very telling in and of itself.

And still more necro...

Originally posted by sempiternal

The only ones that get pissed off are those that wish there were some opposing evidence that the player versus artificial intelligence LoTRO did better, or those that are invested into LoTRO in some way.

Most of us find knowing MMO subscription numbers interesting, it's fun to know how many people are playing a game with you.

One thing is for sure, Turbine is inviting people to estimate subscription numbers by not releasing the numbers themselves.  The only reason Turbine has to not release the numbers, is if they fall far below expectations.  You can be sure that if LoTRO was even near 1 million subscribers, they would be announcing it publicly everywhere.  So the fact that a company does not release any type of subscription numbers is very telling in and of itself.

I hope the rest of your 1000+ posts have been as good as this one!

Keep up the good work mate :)

Originally posted by sempiternal

One thing is for sure, Turbine is inviting people to estimate subscription numbers by not releasing the numbers themselves.  The only reason Turbine has to not release the numbers, is if they fall far below expectations.  You can be sure that if LoTRO was even near 1 million subscribers, they would be announcing it publicly everywhere.  So the fact that a company does not release any type of subscription numbers is very telling in and of itself.

Having the licence renewed for how many more years? and having another 40 mil invested by the holder of many other IP's is very telling in and of itself as well. Probably a little more telling than having a company policy to not release sub numbers. I would think that would be more of an indication of how well Turbine is doing. Im just guessing though, I have no idea..maybe Turbine was the only one that would take the 40 mil from that particular investor...cause they needed it worse than everyone else:)

I estimate LOTRO subs between 161,009 ~181,213. Not including lifetime members. Not as good as they hoped, but still enough to be rolling in dough from the sale of the expansion. I base this estimate off of my own research and sources and stuff, that i, like turbine, do not release to the public. Accuracy rating: F. If you want to add my updated estimates to your original thread feel free.

Actually even if LoTRO is far exceeding their expectations, they can't release the subs now or it would behoove them to release sub numbers for all of their other games.  I doubt any of the other games has more than 50K susb (if that). So regardless of how well LoTRO is doing, it's in their interest to have a corportae policy of "we don't release sub numbres."

The only thing I've seen that I put stock in is the NPD report.  The rest are all ass math as far as I;m concerened.

It will be interesting to see how AoC changes things in their next quarterly report.  I'm guessing it will knock LoTRO down to 4th place, it did some crazy box sales.  

Originally posted by Yeebo

Actually even if LoTRO is far exceeding their expectations, they can't release the subs now or it would behoove them to release sub numbers for all of their other games.  I doubt any of the other games has more than 50K susb (if that). So regardless of how well LoTRO is doing, it's in their interest to have a corportae policy of "we don't release sub numbres."

The only thing I've seen that I put stock in is the NPD report.  The rest are all ass math as far as I;m concerened.

It will be interesting to see how AoC changes things in their next quarterly report.  I'm guessing it will knock LoTRO down to 4th place, it did some crazy box sales.  

Saying "LOTRO have a million subs" doesn't really forces them to say anything about their other games. Also, I think DDO got more than 50K subs anyways.

But why the secret with the number of subs? It should be a big list updating every month for all games. I mean, you can check the top list for CDs or even console games, why not a list for the MMOs too?

http://www.nebusiness.co.uk/business...1140-21108133/

Tell us about Lord of the Rings…

The number of subscribers is into six figures and we’ve had 300,000 box sales in Europe - you can also double that into the States. If you want to enter the fantasy-based market you must be mad. Unless you have a licence like Lord of the Rings, it’s too competitive. We are launching a space-based combat game which you can play online, but our game is all action like Battle Star Gallactica. Whether there’s space in the fantasy market I don’t know.

Here's the first numbers I've seen posted anywhere since LoTRO launched. Codemasters is saying they had 300k box sales in Europe alone- and double that for the US. So, it's either 600k total or 900k total- depending upon what the fella means:) And that wouldn't be counting digital downloads either but I don't know how many people actually download games that way.

Either way- it's WAY- WAY -WAY more than the OP estimated for Europe. He was guessing 30k  in Europe and 200k in the USA. Here's verification they sold at LEAST 600k boxes.

And I'm going to say digital D/L is pretty high. I know here in the US (at least west coast) it is really hard to find the box on the shelves. Most people that do the trial just upgrade on the site. That's how I did it and I know a number of people that have done the same, especially since the recent 9.99 to buy the game didn't include retail stores but online only.

and dont forget that the game is also in Japan (2 servers)

and it doesnt say anything about Australia..

I estimate 200k subs

will probably be alot higher when MoM releases

Originally posted by silkakc

http://www.nebusiness.co.uk/business...1140-21108133/

Tell us about Lord of the Rings…

The number of subscribers is into six figures and we’ve had 300,000 box sales in Europe - you can also double that into the States. If you want to enter the fantasy-based market you must be mad. Unless you have a licence like Lord of the Rings, it’s too competitive. We are launching a space-based combat game which you can play online, but our game is all action like Battle Star Gallactica. Whether there’s space in the fantasy market I don’t know.

 

Here's the first numbers I've seen posted anywhere since LoTRO launched. Codemasters is saying they had 300k box sales in Europe alone- and double that for the US. So, it's either 600k total or 900k total- depending upon what the fella means:) And that wouldn't be counting digital downloads either but I don't know how many people actually download games that way.

Either way- it's WAY- WAY -WAY more than the OP estimated for Europe. He was guessing 30k  in Europe and 200k in the USA. Here's verification they sold at LEAST 600k boxes.

Well, I'm sure he will conjure up another "trustworthy" estimation... (30k for Europe, that's priceless...lol).

And I also believe he'll have no problems discrediting a source like Codemasters :)

DB

150-200,000 is a very healthy population.  take into account the expansion coming soon and the updates to follow and i think we can see a 200-250,000 population.

If you think LOTRO is going anywhere any time soon then you must be crazy. I currently play LOTRO and have been playing since around release and the community and population is fantastic.

Now its nowhere near as close tO WoW when it comes to population but I would guess it has a healthy 150-200k subscribers. Is that anywhere close to being a failure? Of course not! This game us a huge success!  Just look at their updates, every 2-3 months they release huge updates that add massive new areas, hundreds of new quests, new MP classes, and they are all high quality.

Now you may think that Warhammer, AOC, and whatever MMO that is being released will kill LOTRO but that is just crazy. UO, AC, EQ, and many other MMOs still have thriving communties and are not affected by new big MMO so why would LOTRO? Also, people in LOTRO don't play only for PVP since the game is primarly a PVE game so why would they leave for Warhammer? They play LOTRO because they love the tolkein lore and middle earth. So I see little reason to think that Warhammer or any new MMO will hurt LOTRO in any way.  Especially since AOC didn't hurt lOTRO at all.

Originally posted by silkakc

http://www.nebusiness.co.uk/business...1140-21108133/

Tell us about Lord of the Rings…

The number of subscribers is into six figures and we’ve had 300,000 box sales in Europe - you can also double that into the States. If you want to enter the fantasy-based market you must be mad. Unless you have a licence like Lord of the Rings, it’s too competitive. We are launching a space-based combat game which you can play online, but our game is all action like Battle Star Gallactica. Whether there’s space in the fantasy market I don’t know.

 

Here's the first numbers I've seen posted anywhere since LoTRO launched. Codemasters is saying they had 300k box sales in Europe alone- and double that for the US. So, it's either 600k total or 900k total- depending upon what the fella means:) And that wouldn't be counting digital downloads either but I don't know how many people actually download games that way.

 

Either way- it's WAY- WAY -WAY more than the OP estimated for Europe. He was guessing 30k  in Europe and 200k in the USA. Here's verification they sold at LEAST 600k boxes.

First of all, it's 600k copies that have been sold, not 900k, and that includes online sales.

Second, you seemed to have missed one of the main points in the initial post, copies sold does not equal subscribers, not even close.

Third, I did not say that only 30k were sold in Europe total,  this is just a failure to read or comprehend on your part.  What I estimated is that 30k were sold in Europe during the same time period that 28k were sold in the US.

It's also very telling that in the very response to a question about LoTRO numbers, he goes on to say that it's very competitive, and then even begins talking about other games.  Those are not good indicators.

Actually we have to realize that LTA-Holders are figured into these numbers, even if they do not play anymore, or just log on every 3 months to play for 2 days through the new content.

I would say for all intents and purposes these players dont really count as active subs, since they neither pay, nor are available to play with, nor take part in anything in the game world, be it economy, competition or PvP. They basically do not exist at all, until they buy ( or dont, as in my circle of friends none of the LTAs consider buying MoM) an expansion.

I suppose 150k by December means a little less now, seeing how apparently Subscriber Numbers are steadily dropping, but not too fast. Maybe 130 to 135k?

That would be my guess based on what little information is available, and the general direction the game seems to be going (casual pve niche)