Age of Conan

Source: http://forums.ageofconan.com/showthread.php?t=91025

I wager this has been discussed before. I have no reason to disputte this number, but I wonder why so much emphasis is placed on the number of beta applicants. I wager a large majority of that pool also applied for WAR and heck any other beta that was out.

Still, It just goes to show that AoC has a healthy following. I expect easily 250K subs within the first 3 months and a million by years end

That would be great, I personally think this is true as well its a good game.

I hope you are right, but I seriously doubt there are even 1 million gamers with rigs that can handle AoC.  We are talking about a rather small market segment for adults, here are exapmles:  high end PC's, people who like gore & nudity, people who like Conan and people who are willing to leave WoW.  After you filter all of these down, I think you are left with about 250k potential subs.

WoW is only succesful since eMachines and low end PC's can run it.  MapleStory and other browser games are only succesful because crappy computers can run them as well.  AoC can't compete with either of these two, they are dealing with separate segments.

And I read a post where a guy signed up for a beta, then signed his grandmother up, his wife, even his dog.. So beta sign ups prove nothing really.

You really are pretty gullible to believe that number.  One thing you learn on the net, question everything.  There is more nonsense published on the web than any other medium, by a huge margin.

If they actually had that many, then about 750,000 found out they don't have the computer to run the game, but then I extremely doubt they had even half that many if that.  Whatever the number this game is going to have a huge drop off after 30 days, the client needs ALOT of work.

Well I gave 3 different emails and adresses to have a go at closed beta.

My son also applied twice with different e-mail adresses.

Signing up for trying to get in with a Beta product is one thing...

Keep paying 15 Euro to play an MMO a few months after release is a whole other ball game.

I agree with the above 250 K IF the client is stable.

Far under this IF the client/server relationship keeps the memory leaks and isn't stable.

Think about Hellgate London: sold at one third of its initial price 5 months after launch ......

Consider this...

Age of conan ranks 5th in amazon.com VIDEO GAMES sales rank, givin this was the un-favorable pre-order says alot... 5th....and thats just the regular edition.

http://www.amazon.com/Age-of-Conan-Hyborian-Adventures/dp/B000RZPW9W/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=videogames&qid=1210721165&sr=8-1

Gamestop now shows that AoC is ranked as the number 1 best seller.... above GTA IV... thats for the online store... http://www.gamestop.com just scroll to the bottom you'll see it.

So if you consider more traditional store like Best buy and Circut city... they must be seeing simular numbers if not better.

A Part of me worries that the first few days may be bumpy... but then again... if the servers stay stable and the game can handle that amount...

I can say we could see about 1 million subs at start. Not sure by 3 months, all depends on how stable the game is... but if they produce a solid effort i could see that number sticking for a while, at least till warhammer, face it some are going to go no matter what.

Originally posted by Atrious

Consider this...

Age of conan ranks 5th in amazon.com VIDEO GAMES sales rank, givin this was the un-favorable pre-order says alot... 5th....and thats just the regular edition.

http://www.amazon.com/Age-of-Conan-Hyborian-Adventures/dp/B000RZPW9W/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=videogames&qid=1210721165&sr=8-1

Gamestop now shows that AoC is ranked as the number 1 best seller.... above GTA IV... thats for the online store... http://www.gamestop.com just scroll to the bottom you'll see it.

So if you consider more traditional store like Best buy and Circut city... they must be seeing simular numbers if not better.

A Part of me worries that the first few days may be bumpy... but then again... if the servers stay stable and the game can handle that amount...

I can say we could see about 1 million subs at start. Not sure by 3 months, all depends on how stable the game is... but if they produce a solid effort i could see that number sticking for a while, at least till warhammer, face it some are going to go no matter what.

the game can handle 650k people at best, even the devs announced this. No game will ever start with 1 mil people (WAR, maybe, considering it's aim). The game will have 500k at the top how I see it, at the very best, which for any game is considered amazing. The numbers will dip quickly to about 150k - 250k (I do suspect no less than 200k, but we will see how many of the customers are those unknowing of system specs...). From here I can see them slowly growing, seeing how intelligently FC has been marketting their game so far. They've grown dramatically since the launch of AO and have become a respected and knowledgeable company. They have potential to make this game a hit (not a "WoW" hit, but eventually the possibility of 1 mil). No way will this happen any time soon, though.

Has a lot of people signed up several times? Yes of course. Hell I did it myself. Do people sign up for everything and every crappy gamebeta they hear about? No they don't.  People doesn't show an interest in something they believe to be junk. It's not like people like to bore themselves unnecessarily. Besides the rules that applies to AoC also applied to WoW, LoTRO, WAR and so on. That means you better believe that people has signed up several times for those games betas as well, and AoC still had more applicants.

So we can all assume the numbers are flawed, but even so it shows an unprecedented number and interest in the game. This is a fact it's hard to evade even for the most rabid AoC-hater.