Age of Conan

Because of the Mature Rating of this game

100k to 200k initial release

If they play their cards right, 100k to 200+k  6months after release. Not much increase because the game, like all the newly released games, will have TONS AND TONS of bugs, almost non-existant content, severe server lags, and huge balance issues. In case you didn't know, WoW started like a fcking broken project with all the server resets and downtime before it became the behemoth it is now.

If they have believers and fanbois up the wazoo like Blizzard, 200k to 400+k to steady subscription climb from fanboi hype after a year of fixes/upgrades. Freak scenes of subscription spikes will sometimes happen thanks to all the tired WoW/exWoW players looking for that next big mmo.

Fanbois super hyping will result in an increase on blind subscription by new mmorpg players resulting in a sudden spike in the game's subscription numbers and then blowing it up even bigger by new subscripting gold farmer base.

increase in subscription = increase in gold farmer base = successful business errrr  mmorpg

toooooooooooo bad System Requirements, for the game to be playable, is not practical for most gold farming businesses out there.  (I still play WoW using my 2002 computer. I'm now assembling a new computer just for this game.)

First 6months to year bug fixes and toned down graphic option for the masses will be the deciding factors if the company wants to increase subs IMO

omgawd i didn't know i have been watching this site since 2003... i feel old

anything over 150k subscribers is good

for copies sold:

WoW sold over 800,000 copies in its 1st 3 months  ( North America only)

www.joystiq.com/2005/02/28/world-of-warcraft-sells-800-000-copies-in-first-three-months/

Guild Wars sold 1 million copies in its 1st 5 months  (North America and Europe)

www.guildwars.com/events/press/releases/pressrelease-2005-09-22.php

First few months it will peak at 150k, then slowly drop as people start to his the highest level.

Funcom has their servers prepared for an intial load of 650k. They probably won't hit that right off the bat so I'd assume maybe 300k after the first month. Some ppl complain about the high requirements but hello, next gen game. If you are too cheap to upgrade your rig go play console. And by console I mean xbox 360 since they are making AOC for that too. Even broke college kids I know have upgraded their rigs in the past two years enough to play aoc. Work 1 month flippin burgers = 600 bucks = 8800gtx + 3.2 dual core + asus m2n sli mobo. Maybe funcom assumed that "mature" people make money which imo is a valid assumption.

I'm going to say by the 3 month mark it will hit 250k

if the game goes well, then i will say by 6 months they will have 450k-500k

if the game is incredible then by a year i think they will top out at somewhere between 750k-800k

if the game bombs early, i will say they'll hit 150k subs by 3 months

if the game continues to bomb, i'll say 200k-250k by 6 months

if the game is still alive and still bombing, i will say 90k-100k subs by the 1 year mark

That is my guess, I checked mmogchart.com and compared other games of similar marketing and release quality

Originally posted by bachanam

I'm going to say by the 3 month mark it will hit 250k

if the game goes well, then i will say by 6 months they will have 450k-500k

if the game is incredible then by a year i think they will top out at somewhere between 750k-800k

 

if the game bombs early, i will say they'll hit 150k subs by 3 months

if the game continues to bomb, i'll say 200k-250k by 6 months

if the game is still alive and still bombing, i will say 90k-100k subs by the 1 year mark

 

That is my guess, I checked mmogchart.com and compared other games of similar marketing and release quality

Not all that far from mine, and I based all mine on assumptions and made up facts! ;)

A game with lots of merely satisfied subscribers will succeed.

A game with only a few, very rabid, very vocal fans will not do as well.

I get the feeling AoC will turn out to be the latter.

There are a lot of interested people now, and that may generate some initial sales, but a year from now I'll be very surprised if it has even 75K.  I expect subs will settle to something more like 40-50K.

This is mainly based on my impressions of Funcom as a company and on the video footage I've seen.

I actually have changed my mind on this game alot after looking into alot of leaked information and especially the pvp weekend reviews. they all are pretty promising with not alot of huge game breaking bugs or issues. in most reports its a very playable game.

I think funcom stated they are planning for upwords of 500k on launch day with the ability to increase if needed. at lowest they expected something like 200-300k. i think that is pretty good for a non wow mmo. what is going to break the game is if the 1-80 progression is not fun and decent and will not hold that initial subscriber base untill they can get out a content push that will keep players involved post 80, and give those that are still leveling something to aspire to and continue playing. if they cant get a GOOD pvp system or raiding game established in 2-3 months the game is gonna lose alot of players. they already have some pvp in so this cant be a total wash.

really, unless AOC has a  horribly bugged client it should do as well if not better than LOTRO on release day simply based on the IP and the vacuum of new mmo titles, and that isnt bad at all imo.

yeah im gonna throw out a crazy number....800,000 to 1 million in 5 months..

all the pre-orders, the boredom of the summer, WaR delay, lich king long development ....AoC acutally being a good game with great pvp..... should be money in the bank