General Discussion

Originally posted by Housam

 

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Originally posted by TookyG

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Originally posted by Housam

 

there are allot of new mmo coming out in the next few moths. which one do you think will make it big and which ones wont...and why
JUST MY OPINIONS
Age of Conan - Will draw at max, a respectable 200k
Aion Closed within a year
The Chronicles of Spellborn Closed within a year or purchased by SOE
Fallen Earth Closed within a year
Jumpgate Evolution If Jumpgate is still going somehow, this will last a while but won't get alot of players
Requiem: Bloodymare Closed within a year
Star Trek Online Will eventually be launched by some company but hopefully won't resemble the crap Perpetual was doing
WAR (Warhammer Online) - Will draw at max, 300k in the US

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lol your pretty harsh hehe

Probably a mix of being realistic and being jaded.

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Originally posted by TookyG

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Originally posted by Housam

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Originally posted by TookyG

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Originally posted by Housam

there are allot of new mmo coming out in the next few moths. which one do you think will make it big and which ones wont...and why
JUST MY OPINIONS
Age of Conan - Will draw at max, a respectable 200k
Aion Closed within a year
The Chronicles of Spellborn Closed within a year or purchased by SOE
Fallen Earth Closed within a year
Jumpgate Evolution If Jumpgate is still going somehow, this will last a while but won't get alot of players
Requiem: Bloodymare Closed within a year
Star Trek Online Will eventually be launched by some company but hopefully won't resemble the crap Perpetual was doing
WAR (Warhammer Online) - Will draw at max, 300k in the US

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lol your pretty harsh hehe

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Probably a mix of being realistic and being jaded.

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i think Aion and TCOS will defiantly not do as badly as he predicted...:)

I've been hearing that LOTRO has surpassed 500K and is near 1 million players. If that's true and if Mythic actually delivers on all the hype, I really wouldn't be surprised if WAR hit 1-2 million players.

AOC may hit pretty high numbers too, although the crazy high system reqs are going to be an issue IMHO.

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Originally posted by BattleFelon
I've been hearing that LOTRO has surpassed 500K and is near 1 million players. If that's true and if Mythic actually delivers on all the hype, I really wouldn't be surprised if WAR hit 1-2 million players.
AOC may hit pretty high numbers too, although the crazy high system reqs are going to be an issue IMHO.

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Originally posted by severius

 

Doubt that any of them will bring in millions of western subscribers. 

 

Age of Conan will probably bring in a 250-300k in the first couple months then settle down around 150k after 6 months or so after release.  Probably decreasing numbers after that until the first expansion comes out.

Chronicles of Spellborn I imagine will hit 150k subscribers give or take 20k.  After the first month I suspect this number will decrease significantly

Fallen Earth I do not believe will ever hit mainstream success and will probably go the way of Auto Assault.

Jumpgate Evolution will be interesting to watch.  Being that it's resuscitation is by NetDevil the people that brought us Auto Assault.  I would wager 50-75k people to start with if they are lucky.

Star Trek Online... well this one is definitely not "coming soon".  Hype had built up quick and interest died off just as fast with the more information that Perpetual had released.  Now that it is shuffled off onto a new dev house we have seen nothing.  We know that they are starting over from square one and that's about it.  If they handle it right could see 350k-500k subscribers but more than likely will peak at around 75k maybe 100k.

Warhammer Online... over 650k beta applications to date.  I would wager 325k max subscribers at launch.  This of course depends on how the rest of hte beta is handled and how much work Mythic really puts into the game.  I honestly believe that THQ will do better with their WH40k game.

Aion will most likely bring in numbers close to that of lineage 2.  In the west those numbers are pretty small but it is an eastern game and it appears that the people in Asia are voracious when it comes to their mmo games.  Most likely millions of folks over there will play it lol.

 

These seem pretty realistic.  You have to think that WAR will pull in the biggest numbers, although not as big as some expect.  From what Ive seen/heard, AoC could have the classic, rushed launch that brings the hype machine to a screeching halt.  And, many of the smaller titles are extremely low key right now, so who knows how that will turn out. 

The two big wild card scenarios that could surprise everyone are:

1) If one of the big titles is a complete flop

2) One of the smaller titles starts off quiet (yet solid) and slowly builds steam

Ah I hate to rain on the War people, but come on now, Mythic is making War and Mark Jacobs is still in charge.   He was the big reason DAoC fell from everyone's graces and why alot of the original DAoC devs left.

People don't change.  So I look to see a lot of discontented people once War hits the ether. 

Age of Conan - Will be the best MMO of 2008. Why ?  It won't be a WOW clone and people want something different these days not to mention it will be a fun game to play long term.

Aion - It will have more success overseas than the US but it will be overlooked because more people will be interested in AOC and WAR.

 
WAR (Warhammer Online) - The biggest flop of 2008. It's WOW1.5 PvP version and no innovation whatsoever. If you're playing or have played DAOC and WOW I see no reason why people would switch over to subscribe long term to the game.

Champions Online will be the most profitable MMO title in the near future.  (Investments vs profits)

WAR, AoC and Aion will be profitable, but I doubt they would be up to what they should have been.

Stargate World is promising, could be a sleeper hit.

Originally posted by Ozmodan

Ah I hate to rain on the War people, but come on now, Mythic is making War and Mark Jacobs is still in charge.   He was the big reason DAoC fell from everyone's graces and why alot of the original DAoC devs left.

People don't change.  So I look to see a lot of discontented people once War hits the ether. 

When there's money involved, hundreds of thousands, millions, most people can change pretty damn fast.

AoC - 200k CONSISTENT subs, I cannot and will not predict how many it will have at release because it's so hyped up.

WAR - Similar to AoC, though with around 500k consistent subs, approx. If it has a good release.

Aion - Glanced at this but haven't been following it, it's the only other one I might be interested in if it works out, but no predictions.