Age of Conan

My guess is at least 20% at the beginning of AoC release will go to from WoW community and it will be a big hit for Blizzard even if its <20% :)

What is your Estimation?

I say 30%. People are hungry for something new no matter what MMORPG they're currently immersed in. The question is: Will the majority of people who try it like it enough to ditch whatever MMORPG they're playing at the moment? I know I'm speaking in general, but so many people play WoW that I might as well speak in general lol.

If Funcom really sticks to their guns and follow through with all of their promises, Blizzard is going to take a punch that might actually hurt this time.

I know plenty of people on this forum are big fans of AoC.  I will also say that I have been looking forward to it as well, just to silence flamers that will just say "oh you just hate AoC."  Also there are only 10 votes right now, so its hardly time to say much yet.  But seriously you guys are smoking a ridiculous amount of crack if you think AoC is going to steal 30% of WoW's subs even in the short term on release.  You do realize that is 3 Million subs?!?!  So ya as far as I'm concerned there is NO way AoC is going to come close to stealing 30% of WoW's subs.  By the way I voted 5%, but I would say its possible it gets 10%. 

i think it may have 250k subs tops. which is great. the real question will be how many subs it has after the 30 free days are up.

Yeah, really. Considering I estimate this will have ~200k subs, it's less than 5%. But how many they will steal from WoW? Well, kind of hard to tell. I'm sure all super AoC fans will try to get their friends to play, even if those friends don't play WoW. So, well, I'd say 1-2%. We're not talking too big numbers here! Nothing is going to compete with WoW at its release right now. Wait 2-3 years.

who gives a toss?

The amount of subs to start with will probably be a decently high number. Nowhere near 30% of what WoW has now (it took them years to get as many people as they have), but maybe around 10% IF the game gets really good reviews and has a bigger fanbase than I assume it has.

Its overall success, however, ultimately depends on how good the game is. There really isn't much of a way to tell... people polling are merely guessing based on how they feel about the game, yet nobody has really played the game yet. You can't really take the beta into consideration because the actual game won't be like that... the only people who really know so far how it will turn out are the people working over at Funcom. And even then they can't really assume how many people they will get. I believe it is safe to believe that it will be a very good start, considering, like someone already mentioned, people are looking for a change and this game is coming on queue at a perfect time, but nobody knows how decent it will be...

All I want to say to the OP is this... it depends on what 20%.. because certain parts of that game (which coulud be the 20%) can just stay where they are.

I don't care if anyone from WoW plays AoC...  only thing I care about is how good the game is or isn't from my personal perspective.  If i like the game 0% or 50% from WoW won't matter.  If I hate the game.. same thing.

0%. 350K try out AoC. Most don't make it past the first month. WoW users go back to WoW. Others do whatever they were doing before AoC.