General Discussion

Originally posted by Vrazule

If you people are so fricken insistent that his numbers aren't even accurate for ballpark figures, then why don't you get off your lazy asses and do your own research and publish your "accurate" numbers.  Otherwise, just shut up, you're not debunking anything nor are you being constructive.  Obviously there are more people that respect these numbers than don't.  That alone is good enough to use the graphs as a general tool for evaluating MMO's for whatever reason.  If companies want to use that data, that is their business, not yours.  You people think you're so smart, but these companies make money off you anyway.  Even SWG is still making money after all the uproar you people made.  Makes you wonder how much of a real impact you whining bulletin board lurkers really have on the industry.

And remember... Bruce is the one that brought this to us here for open discussion through the interview.  If you don't like the discussion... well, don't read it. 

I'm still not getting why is this charlatan getting so much space here. He's got a big adv on the main site. Is a guessing competition or using UNCONFIRMED DATA good enough? Don't you wanna pay him a TV adv?

Originally posted by Thillian

I'm still not getting why is this charlatan getting so much space here. He's got a big adv on the main site. Is a guessing competition or using UNCONFIRMED DATA good enough? Don't you wanna pay him a TV adv?

I agree with Cabe2323... This would all be moot if the hard data was listed separate from the just guesses data.  It's pretty easy to see which MMOs have reliable data and which ones don't when you download the spreadsheet.  Problem is that the vast majority of people don't take the time to download the spreadsheet and look at the numbers.  Then when you try and tell people that very fact... they say you're lying. 

Whatever... if people want to believe something just because it's got a web site and a graph... good grief... we're in bigger trouble than I thought. 

well, if you believe that 46% of all statistics are totally meaningless then this site shows the general trends of subscriptions in games, and not hard data. Nobody's every going to release hard data anyway because they are all scared of what it could do to their credibility. Weird, I reckon.

I'm interested to see that he's now listing the trands of concurrent online users. The data's too vague to mean anything, but certainly something you could throw under the nose of a marketing manager, investor or hosting provider (e.g. someone so far removed from the real world it's a surprise the even exist) in order to dupe them into giving you more money, better equipment, etc.

I like the site. I don't use it as a reference, more as a feeling.

Discussion?  You guys aren't discussing a damn thing.  All you do is attack the validity of his data and give absolutely no proof.  Where are your hard numbers that prove his are completely and utterly wrong?  You guys aren't being in the least bit constructive and you complain of personal attacks and yet the very language you use in your posts does the exact same thing, puking hypocrites.  Here, I'll even reflect your own idiocy back at ya, if you don't like the topic of discussion then don't participate in this thread.  Yes, this is a public forum, but there is still a code of conduct, he hasn't done a damn thing to earn the vitriol you guys keep spewing at him in every post.  You don't believe the numbers, fine, then move along instead of badgering the guy with statements that literally and figuratively call his work bullshit.

Originally posted by Vrazule

Discussion?  You guys aren't discussing a damn thing.  All you do is attack the validity of his data and give absolutely no proof.  Where are your hard numbers that prove his are completely and utterly wrong?  You guys aren't being in the least bit constructive and you complain of personal attacks and yet the very language you use in your posts does the exact same thing, puking hypocrites.  Here, I'll even reflect your own idiocy back at ya, if you don't like the topic of discussion then don't participate in this thread.  Yes, this is a public forum, but there is still a code of conduct, he hasn't done a damn thing to earn the vitriol you guys keep spewing at him in every post.  You don't believe the numbers, fine, then move along instead of badgering the guy with statements that literally and figuratively call his work bullshit.

As to the "complain of personal attacks"... and where was it that I did that again?    And then the "very language you use in your posts"... excuse me?   Show me where I posted a single personal attack.

Really I do think you're a bit too emotionally attached to this.  You might want to take a step away from the keyboard for awhile if something this insignificant gets you so worked up. 

Originally posted by Vrazule

Discussion?  You guys aren't discussing a damn thing.  All you do is attack the validity of his data and give absolutely no proof.  Where are your hard numbers that prove his are completely and utterly wrong?  You guys aren't being in the least bit constructive and you complain of personal attacks and yet the very language you use in your posts does the exact same thing, puking hypocrites.  Here, I'll even reflect your own idiocy back at ya, if you don't like the topic of discussion then don't participate in this thread.  Yes, this is a public forum, but there is still a code of conduct, he hasn't done a damn thing to earn the vitriol you guys keep spewing at him in every post.  You don't believe the numbers, fine, then move along instead of badgering the guy with statements that literally and figuratively call his work bullshit.

Doh, please I beg you, if you ever gonna post something in the future, read the whole thread first. It was Bruce (not the one from Canada) but the Bruce, the Great Conjurer who said that some of the data are UNCONFIRMED.  

I too would like to see some sort of notation/separation between what is solid, public and actual numbers, and guesswork and info from insiders (which are about as reliable as NDA breakers for betas... doesn't matter if their info is right, they're still doing something they shouldn't).

Personally I don't use this site because there's no way to really tell between what's real and guess. While some might argue that it's a good "guide," it's not if half the stuff is just guess work. How useful are these numbers if you have to take all of them with a huge helping of salt? Not much.

Originally posted by Cabe2323

Originally posted by SirBruce

 

Originally posted by Cabe2323

 

For instance he makes a guess on how many more copies of LOTRO above the 172K were sold,  he then guesses how many people still subscribe.  Heck I would be happy if he listed the 172K as the subscriber number.  At least that has some basis in reality.  But using sales numbers from 3 months out of the about 12 months the game has existed and from only 1 publisher out of the 5 publishers who sell the game is just not good reporting.  If a newspaper published information with that type of poor research and not clearly marked as "guesses" on the main charts, they would get sued. 

No, they wouldn't, and once again you misstake the facts because of some personal stake you have in your preciousssss LOTRO.  The 200K number isn't a guess; it's a minimum based on Turbine saying they're at least as large as the reported data for the 2nd largest MMO in NA at that time, which is 200K.  It has absolutely *nothing* to do with adding a guess to 172K.  172K was from 2 months previous, and simply serves as a sanity check to tell us that, yes Virginia, they've at least sold that many copies.  Subsequent sales numbers again tell us NOTHING other than the fact there's an upper limit to the number of subscribers during that time, which was probably no more than 300K in August.  It good be God-knows-what now, but that's irrelevant; those sales are not the basis for subsequent data points.

 

And I can also assure you that those sales in those "4 other publishers" you're touting aren't that high, or else you can bet Turbine would be crowing about how they've passsed 500K subscribers, 1 million subscribers, etc.  They haven't, and they aren't going to, because the game, as great as it is, ain't never gonna get there.  Unless a bunch of people in China suddenly decide to start playing it.

Bruce

 

Preciousss?  Huh?  Falling to personal attacks?  I don't even play LOTRO as a full time MMO.  I played for a few months and then quit for awhile and played again for a month.  (Not lifetime subscription either)  I have as much personal stake in just about any MMO.  Since I have played about 30+ of them.  AC1, DAoC, WoW are the big three I have played and the only ones I have played full-time. 

Heh. Yeah, I noticed the facade of objectivity slip a bit there, too. Quite unbecoming of someone who wants to be taken seriously as an impartial collector and reporter of stats.

Bruce, you're sounding more like your typical mmorpg.com LoTRO hater in that post than someone trying to defend objective research.

"And I can also assure you that those sales in those "4 other publishers" you're touting aren't that high, or else you can bet Turbine would be crowing about how they've passsed 500K subscribers, 1 million subscribers, etc.  They haven't, and they aren't going to, because the game, as great as it is, ain't never gonna get there.  Unless a bunch of people in China suddenly decide to start playing it."