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 Thread (64 posts)
nethervoid  4/09/08 2:34:34 PM

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Posts: 302

Originally posted by dragonace
Originally posted by SirBruce

 

Originally posted by dragonace

 It means that there is a lot of guesswork going on.   There are 3 or 4 MMOs that look like they are reliable (They have an A accuracy rating AND have frequent data points - highlighted above).  Most of the others... well, decide for yourself.  You can download the spreadsheet and analyze the numbers for yourself if you want (that's what I did). 


Actually I'd modify that slightly and say that guesswork is only going on with C-grade MMOs, but it's pretty darn good guesswork.  B-grade MMOs aren't guesses; they're simply inside sources that may or may not be accurate.  Almost always these have turned out to be confirmed by other sources later.  But they aren't guesses.

 

Bruce

 

Heh... the highlighted section above is MY definition of a guess.  I guess you can have your own. 

 

Even if you want to debate the "accuracy" of the B rated MMOs.  There simply are not enough data points for them to be all that worth-while.  There are quite a few games there that don't have a data point going back 3 years!   That's not really even worth discussing is it? 

 

I'd question any data point older than 6 months.   In this industry even anything older than 3 months is already getting pretty old.  So yeah, perhaps as an entire genre analysis project (which is what I stated that I liked about it)... the numbers work. 

As a month by month tracking feature... not so much. 

How is an inside source's information a guess again?  I'm failing to see how you piece that logic together.  And by those standards, it would make every official press release a guess because the information is a source from the company?  I mean it's like if Jesus came down and said, I'm f***ing Jesus H. Christ, and you're like oh really?  You've shown me miracles, but I want to see heaven.  Better yet, give me all your powers and maybe I'll believe in you.

What is 'real' proof?  Have you any proof of half the s*** spouted at you in any books you ever read in school?  Do you have to SEE the Haulocaust to know it really happened?  Damn, man.  I think you just don't want to believe, and are biased for some other reason than just to know the facts.

Lastly, if there is some set of information on this topic you feel is more accurate, please link it.  If you don't have a better source, this is the best we have.  You can't argue that it is untrue, just as Bruce can't reveal his sources.

To argue against these stats with no stats of your own or sources of your own, etc etc, then please just take the data as is.  Sir Bruce has given you all the proof he can, and you have no facts to refute his claims; therefore, all your bitching is mute.

The world is round?  I don't fing believe it.  I mean it just can't be, so it isn't.  I have no evidence to say it is or not, even though you do have evidence.  But still I don't believe you.  Why?  Cause I just don't want to.

LAWL to you sir.

 

-----------------------------------------
nethervoid - Est. '97 - 'Tankin' sh** before you were even spankin' it'
[UO|EQ|SB|SWG|PS|HZ|EVE|NWN|WoW|VG]

"Oog think it miss something."
"What?"
"Kick *** fighting games with action missiles."

Cabe2323  4/09/08 2:58:02 PM

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Joined: 8/03/06
Posts: 2568

The nine most terrifying words are: I''m from the government and I''m here to help. -Reagan

Originally posted by nethervoid

 

Originally posted by dragonace
Originally posted by SirBruce

 

Originally posted by dragonace

 It means that there is a lot of guesswork going on.   There are 3 or 4 MMOs that look like they are reliable (They have an A accuracy rating AND have frequent data points - highlighted above).  Most of the others... well, decide for yourself.  You can download the spreadsheet and analyze the numbers for yourself if you want (that's what I did). 


Actually I'd modify that slightly and say that guesswork is only going on with C-grade MMOs, but it's pretty darn good guesswork.  B-grade MMOs aren't guesses; they're simply inside sources that may or may not be accurate.  Almost always these have turned out to be confirmed by other sources later.  But they aren't guesses.

 

Bruce

 

Heh... the highlighted section above is MY definition of a guess.  I guess you can have your own. 

 

Even if you want to debate the "accuracy" of the B rated MMOs.  There simply are not enough data points for them to be all that worth-while.  There are quite a few games there that don't have a data point going back 3 years!   That's not really even worth discussing is it? 

 

I'd question any data point older than 6 months.   In this industry even anything older than 3 months is already getting pretty old.  So yeah, perhaps as an entire genre analysis project (which is what I stated that I liked about it)... the numbers work. 

As a month by month tracking feature... not so much. 

How is an inside source's information a guess again?  I'm failing to see how you piece that logic together.  And by those standards, it would make every official press release a guess because the information is a source from the company?  I mean it's like if Jesus came down and said, I'm f***ing Jesus H. Christ, and you're like oh really?  You've shown me miracles, but I want to see heaven.  Better yet, give me all your powers and maybe I'll believe in you.

 

What is 'real' proof?  Have you any proof of half the s*** spouted at you in any books you ever read in school?  Do you have to SEE the Haulocaust to know it really happened?  Damn, man.  I think you just don't want to believe, and are biased for some other reason than just to know the facts.

Lastly, if there is some set of information on this topic you feel is more accurate, please link it.  If you don't have a better source, this is the best we have.  You can't argue that it is untrue, just as Bruce can't reveal his sources.

To argue against these stats with no stats of your own or sources of your own, etc etc, then please just take the data as is.  Sir Bruce has given you all the proof he can, and you have no facts to refute his claims; therefore, all your bitching is mute.

The world is round?  I don't fing believe it.  I mean it just can't be, so it isn't.  I have no evidence to say it is or not, even though you do have evidence.  But still I don't believe you.  Why?  Cause I just don't want to.

LAWL to you sir.

 

Yes my cousin's sister's boyfriend's uncle works at Turbine and he unofficially told me that Lord of the Rings has 4 million subscribers, of course this information may or may not be accurate. 

 

It is ridiculous to take anything, but company released official information, as in anyway factual.  Otherwise any information is guesswork at best and complete fiction at worst. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We are a nation that has a government — not the other way around. And this makes us special among the nations of the Earth. Our government has no power except that granted it by the people. It is time to check and reverse the growth of government which shows signs of having grown beyond the consent of the governed." ---Ronald Reagan

Munki  4/09/08 3:29:33 PM

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Posts: 1120

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Playing now: COD4

All these people make me chuckle sometimes...

A great job as per usual Bruce. What people need to understand is that Bruce is simply compiling all the information available. He even lists which ones are official, reliable sources, or ones that were found through peiceing together information.

He has never said this is the definitive list of exactly how many people play, its a visual representation so you can get a look at how things are lining up.

What agenda would Bruce have? Now really come on. Is Blizzard paying him off? maybe Sony?
Yea right... lol Sony and Blizzard have much better, and effective ways to drum up excitement for their games.

Its great that you want to critique others work, but atleast be logical about it. What Bruce has compiled is a great gift to the community and should be treated as such.

Cabe2323  4/09/08 3:33:44 PM

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Elite Member

Joined: 8/03/06
Posts: 2568

The nine most terrifying words are: I''m from the government and I''m here to help. -Reagan

Originally posted by Munki

All these people make me chuckle sometimes...

A great job as per usual Bruce. What people need to understand is that Bruce is simply compiling all the information available. He even lists which ones are official, reliable sources, or ones that were found through peiceing together information.

He has never said this is the definitive list of exactly how many people play, its a visual representation so you can get a look at how things are lining up.

What agenda would Bruce have? Now really come on. Is Blizzard paying him off? maybe Sony?
Yea right... lol Sony and Blizzard have much better, and effective ways to drum up excitement for their games.

Its great that you want to critique others work, but atleast be logical about it. What Bruce has compiled is a great gift to the community and should be treated as such.

Yes I do think its a great deal of work that he does and is an asset to the community, but I think he should really downgrade any non official sources in his rankings.  For instance the "insider source"  should be regulated to a C grade. 

Also I personally think people put way too much stock into population numbers.  Since they very rarely affect your personally gameplay.  There are plenty of games with a lot lower populations that have added way more content to their games then World of Warcraft has which has the highest population.  Considering that Blizzard has been extremely stingy in their updates. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We are a nation that has a government — not the other way around. And this makes us special among the nations of the Earth. Our government has no power except that granted it by the people. It is time to check and reverse the growth of government which shows signs of having grown beyond the consent of the governed." ---Ronald Reagan

Zorvan  4/09/08 3:58:12 PM

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Joined: 10/02/06
Posts: 6804

Originally posted by Munki

All these people make me chuckle sometimes...

A great job as per usual Bruce. What people need to understand is that Bruce is simply compiling all the information available. He even lists which ones are official, reliable sources, or ones that were found through peiceing together information.

He has never said this is the definitive list of exactly how many people play, its a visual representation so you can get a look at how things are lining up.

What agenda would Bruce have? Now really come on. Is Blizzard paying him off? maybe Sony?
Yea right... lol Sony and Blizzard have much better, and effective ways to drum up excitement for their games.

Its great that you want to critique others work, but atleast be logical about it. What Bruce has compiled is a great gift to the community and should be treated as such.

Anyone can say they have an "insider source" and post whatever numbers they want. As far as official numbers given out by companies, anyone can find those easily enough if they're interested. The only credit I'll give Bruce is for putting the official numbers all in one spot ( must've took at least 2 hours ).

Far as what he has to gain? Hell, everyone wants their 15 minutes of fame. Unfortunately, his site is more famous as a joke cited by those who don't know better, than an accurate representation of the game industry. But hey, to each their own.

In memory of Sir Ladyflower Ironforge- Laura "Taera" Genender 1986-2008 R.I.P.

dragonace  4/09/08 4:57:28 PM

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Novice Member

Joined: 4/18/06
Posts: 1201

"This is the Master-Ring, the One Ring to rule them all."

Originally posted by nethervoid

 

Originally posted by dragonace
Originally posted by SirBruce

 

Originally posted by dragonace

 It means that there is a lot of guesswork going on.   There are 3 or 4 MMOs that look like they are reliable (They have an A accuracy rating AND have frequent data points - highlighted above).  Most of the others... well, decide for yourself.  You can download the spreadsheet and analyze the numbers for yourself if you want (that's what I did). 


Actually I'd modify that slightly and say that guesswork is only going on with C-grade MMOs, but it's pretty darn good guesswork.  B-grade MMOs aren't guesses; they're simply inside sources that may or may not be accurate.  Almost always these have turned out to be confirmed by other sources later.  But they aren't guesses.

 

Bruce

 

Heh... the highlighted section above is MY definition of a guess.  I guess you can have your own. 

 

Even if you want to debate the "accuracy" of the B rated MMOs.  There simply are not enough data points for them to be all that worth-while.  There are quite a few games there that don't have a data point going back 3 years!   That's not really even worth discussing is it? 

 

I'd question any data point older than 6 months.   In this industry even anything older than 3 months is already getting pretty old.  So yeah, perhaps as an entire genre analysis project (which is what I stated that I liked about it)... the numbers work. 

As a month by month tracking feature... not so much. 

How is an inside source's information a guess again?  I'm failing to see how you piece that logic together.  And by those standards, it would make every official press release a guess because the information is a source from the company?  I mean it's like if Jesus came down and said, I'm f***ing Jesus H. Christ, and you're like oh really?  You've shown me miracles, but I want to see heaven.  Better yet, give me all your powers and maybe I'll believe in you.

 

What is 'real' proof?  Have you any proof of half the s*** spouted at you in any books you ever read in school?  Do you have to SEE the Haulocaust to know it really happened?  Damn, man.  I think you just don't want to believe, and are biased for some other reason than just to know the facts.

Lastly, if there is some set of information on this topic you feel is more accurate, please link it.  If you don't have a better source, this is the best we have.  You can't argue that it is untrue, just as Bruce can't reveal his sources.

To argue against these stats with no stats of your own or sources of your own, etc etc, then please just take the data as is.  Sir Bruce has given you all the proof he can, and you have no facts to refute his claims; therefore, all your bitching is mute.

The world is round?  I don't fing believe it.  I mean it just can't be, so it isn't.  I have no evidence to say it is or not, even though you do have evidence.  But still I don't believe you.  Why?  Cause I just don't want to.

LAWL to you sir.

 

It's a guess because the inside source is UNPROVEN.

 

Hopefully that word will jump out at you so that you see it.  Anyone can claim they are an "inside source".  Anyone can claim they have "inside source" information.  See... that's the part that a lot of us are having trouble with.

 

I applaud Bruce's efforts on this.  And, I've said that I think the numbers as a whole are a great tool for looking at the MMO genre.  I just don't put a lot of stock in the month to month tracking, as after looking at the spreadsheet... I'm not a "convert".   If the numbers do it for you... great!  Just don't get all upset that I'm not buying them as "Facts".  I have a bit higher standard than that. 

 
dragonace  4/09/08 5:02:50 PM

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Novice Member

Joined: 4/18/06
Posts: 1201

"This is the Master-Ring, the One Ring to rule them all."

Originally posted by Munki

All these people make me chuckle sometimes...

A great job as per usual Bruce. What people need to understand is that Bruce is simply compiling all the information available. He even lists which ones are official, reliable sources, or ones that were found through peiceing together information.

He has never said this is the definitive list of exactly how many people play, its a visual representation so you can get a look at how things are lining up.

What agenda would Bruce have? Now really come on. Is Blizzard paying him off? maybe Sony?
Yea right... lol Sony and Blizzard have much better, and effective ways to drum up excitement for their games.

Its great that you want to critique others work, but atleast be logical about it. What Bruce has compiled is a great gift to the community and should be treated as such.

Exactly!

 

I'm not trying to say that Bruce is doing anything under-handed.  On the contrary, since he is so honest with his numbers, it is open for us to determine the weight we will give to their meaning.

 

I also agree that he has never tried to say the numbers are gospel.  (Unfortunately, that's not the case with some of the "disciples").  In fact, for his Accuracy of C rated games he even says "Their numbers should be taken with a large grain of salt."

So, why do some people get so upset when some of us do just that? 
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