Easy enough...

I think that if SOE/LA aggressively promoted a CURB version of the game, with a good n00bie island introduction to it like Tansarii station, they'd be moderately successful with it, not WoW successful.  WoW is a simpler game to get into than SWG because its complexity is more subtle and not nearly so deep as SWG preCU was.  SWG preCU had a very steep learning curve which a tutorial would only partially compensate for.  Frankly that was part of its appeal to me...that I had the freedom to decide what my own goals were, unlike in WoW where you're basically handed a goal (to level up) and your taken by the hand most of the way along the path.

I picked 500k-1mil.

 SWG was losing customers pre-cu,not drastically ,but losing none the less.Imo mostly because of bugs that weren't fixed and issues that were ignored.As in the Jedi thing.They should have made a server cap on the numbers of Jedi.I don't have a solution on that,maybe perma-death after 3 deaths or something and then it opened a slot for someone else.

 If they had focused on polishing what they had started,I believe that  a lot of the WoW burnouts would have migrated to SWG.

 A lot of the people that left SWG for Wow were like me. I left to try it out,fully intending to return to SWG.

I tried it out for a while,and returned to SWG...And thought..WTH..this isn't the same game..It's a frakin teenie bopper shootum up.

How many posts do you see an boards such as this one of people asking and begging for something exactly like what SWG could have been ??

very simple answer
              They would still have mine , I can only speak for myself .

cheers

Originally posted by Prime8

very simple answer
              They would still have mine , I can only speak for myself .

cheers

Good answer!

I'd likely still be there too.

Originally posted by Prime8

very simple answer
              They would still have mine , I can only speak for myself .

cheers

Well I know from personal experience that they would probably have at least 50 more.  That's around the number of guildmates that left with the CU/NGE.  About 20 long term vets left when the CU hit, and the rest took off with the NGE.  Looking back, I can only maybe think of maybe 5 people who kept playing after the NGE.

I don't know though, it's hard to say whether they would still be maintaining their highest pre-CU numbers.  Change is inevitable in mmo's, usually it's slow and small, spaced out over patches over an entire length of a game.  With SWG, it happened on a massive scale, twice, in a short period of time.  Who's to say that a lot of those players who scream for the Pre-CU days wouldn't have left over the last few years due to class nerfs, ability tweaking, balancing issues, server merges, etc.

I will say again, I do long for the pre-CU/NGE days and the strong community I was a part of.  But it's impossible to say that, if those events hadn't occurred, it would still be the same game today.

I think EVE has shown that a Sci-Fi sandbox that is nurtured with additions to it, grows.

Add to this the fact that it was Star Wars, and I think they'd have 400K subs by now.  Problem with SOE was that they were incompetent even back in the Pre-CU, they never did have the talent to release a patch that didn't piss off a large segment of their customers, mainly because their solution to everything was nerf, nerf, nerf. 

It's easier to destroy (nerf) than to create (enhance).

SWG Devs have ALWAYS taken the quick and easy path.  Forever will the NGE dominate their destiny.

would be propably there and voted for 500k -1mil but can a monster conceal his true nature ? $OE would have  shown there greed and the willingness to sacrifice the playerbase sooner or later anyway.

Originally posted by DarthRaiden

would be propably there and voted for 500k -1mil but can a monster conceal his true nature ? $OE would have  shown there greed and the willingness to sacrifice the playerbase sooner or later anyway.

This is true.  The reason why SOE doesn't produce sandbox style games and eliminated the one that they had is that they completely lack the expertise or mentality needed to succeed with such a game.  SOE likes to control their customers, including every aspect of how they play, so as to be able to push additional product (such as expansions).  When you run a sandbox, the customers control the game, as things almost always don't go according to any pre-existing plan.  This is something CCP has gotten good at adapting to.  SOE never could adapt, so they'd make HARSH changes to SWG to bring the players "back into line". 

Want to know why crafted weapons will NEVER compete with looted/reward ones?  Simple:  Crafters would be competing with SOE for business.  SOE wants to be able (even if they dont' do this anymore in SWG) to sell their customers expansions with better looted and reward weapons.  They don't want someone to elect not to buy an expansion because "Weaponsmith Bob' can supply him with a weapon that is as good or maybe better.  Nevermind that expansions should be about adding stuff to the game, not just lengthening the linear treadmill.

A good example of how far down that road SOE is, think back to when they first put the new "Foozle" instances in.  A talented group of players found a way to solve it (not using ANY exploits mind you) that was different from how the devs themselves designed it to be solved.  What did they do: 

1.  Praise their players and consider themselves lucky that despite all SWG has been through they still have SOME players with some brains.

2. Immediately alter the instance so as to make solving it that way impossible.

SOE chose option #2.  And did so RAPIDLY. 

Think on that one for a minute.  Is a company that reacts to things like that IN that way ever going to be able to design or run any sort of virtual world game where the players have ANY control over the world? 

This is why every SOE game is a never ending gear grind level treadmill.  They can't think beyond the linear.  That, in a nutshell, is why SOE fails.  Blizzard has perfected THAT particular model, to the point where there is no air left in that room for competition.  There are plenty of other models for MMO games that could be tried.  SOE can't do that, they completely lack creative or managerial people who can think outside that small box.

TBH, if SOE/LEC was to actually fix bugs, add content & polish, and spend some marketing dollars, there's no reason why they wouldn't be in the millions (probably low millions due to not really being of interest in the asian market) today.

The problem is, it would be a slow burn, much like you see with EVE. It would require patience, no small amount of money, and delicacy when communicating with your customers. Unfortunetly, these qualities (with the exception of money) are not typically things large publicly traded companies are known for. All they see is the next quarters financials. The crystal ball doesn't look more than a year into the future where their marketing folks are concerned.

Slow build ups aren't an option for companies like SOE and LEC. They want their money, and they want it NOW!

Word to all MMO developers: The rules of the game industry do not apply here. Momentum does not build soley during pre-launch, and does not end once a product has been launched.  If you fail to deliver on promises, momentum will continue without you... negative momentum (ie: word of mouth).

Word of mouth is huge. It helped to destroy SWG, and helped to build EVE. Word of mouth is honest and cannot be spun by PR cronies.

If SOE stayed the course and commited (and I mean really commited) to Pre-CU SWG, word of mouth would have turned that 250,000 subs into a far greater number. Easily.

Unfortunetly, we all know SOE is incapable of commiting for the long haul. Which is why they will soon fail altogether as a company.

Very good points.  The "instant gratification" model won't work in this industry, either as game design or as a business revenue model.

If bloated, large companies can't handle the type of model that makes successful MMO games, then they will exit the industry.  Which won't be a bad thing in the long run.

The would have over 500k IMO.

Especially with the PreCU system combined with the new content they have created.

IE, PreCU with the new instances could have been a great combination.

Agree with posts to this thread that $OE and LA are both blinded by greed and totally fail to understand that profitt follows quality and not the other way around.

Originally posted by Evilsam

I picked 500k-1mil.

 SWG was losing customers pre-cu,not drastically ,but losing none the less.Imo mostly because of bugs that weren't fixed and issues that were ignored.As in the Jedi thing.They should have made a server cap on the numbers of Jedi.I don't have a solution on that,maybe perma-death after 3 deaths or something and then it opened a slot for someone else.

 If they had focused on polishing what they had started,I believe that  a lot of the WoW burnouts would have migrated to SWG.

 A lot of the people that left SWG for Wow were like me. I left to try it out,fully intending to return to SWG.

I tried it out for a while,and returned to SWG...And thought..WTH..this isn't the same game..It's a frakin teenie bopper shootum up.

How many posts do you see an boards such as this one of people asking and begging for something exactly like what SWG could have been ??

I agree with much of what you have said except I would add that if SOE had invested the capital that they ploughed into the two planetary expansions, limited, restrictive and anti-the spirit of the game, into fixing bugs, balancing professions (balancing not equalising) and, above all, properly marketing the game, then SWG would have grown with the same incrementa strength as Eve - except that SWG started with 350,000 subs rather than Eve's 5000-10,000.

When $OE starts listening to thier customer base and give refugee players a  reason to come back it will be always look like this. Instant Gratificiation sites to buy items for RL money is the lamest thing Ive ever heard of makes you think what kind of player base they have these days last time I played they acted like this....

Imagine how the game would have done if it was more complete and less buggy right from day 1...

Imagine the skill system, with all the mechanics working correctly, and all the cool animations, and the profession interdependence, and the sandbox, and some quest-type content options (for those that like that sort of thing), a functional ground-game, a functional complementary space game, and a functional Galactic Civil War.  If that was in place, really the sky would be the limit.

Per the terms outlined in the OPs question, I believe it would have had 100K-250K subs at this point.  Pretty much where it was always assumed to have been.  And, as another sage pointed out, I would have still been there too.  Cheers,

I would say 1kk more.

Why ? Because before WoW MMO wasnt a game to play by all most PC player's, they did prefer other games online, and now they know the world of the MMO games, and about 30 to 40% of the WoW are tired of the game, they just dont leave because there isnt any good MMO out there, and since SWG Pre-CU was so very diferent then WoW and most of MMO out there, they would give it a try, at least the TRIAL of the game, and that would increse the sub of the game in my opinion.

     I'd put it at 400-500k now given the OP's points.

  All of that and; an obvious commitment to updated/refined graphics through the future, a continuation of an ever rising peak of complexity in character/crafting development through lvl/mastery, plus free content updates with bi-annual lvl cap increases.  I would've voted 1mil++ easy and with these additions I'd still be playing hardcore.

  Without them, at this point, I'd have to say I'd be playing, nothing else outhere to date keeps my interest.  It was a unique MMO but because my other additions wouldn't be there I'd have to say I'd always be on the lookout for something similar but new.  I luv SW but, in the here and now, SWG without my other requirements would be little more than the old comfy couch needing a replacement.  Which is what I really want anyhow a new SW MMO.   

Originally posted by salvaje

Very good points.  The "instant gratification" model won't work in this industry, either as game design or as a business revenue model.

If bloated, large companies can't handle the type of model that makes successful MMO games, then they will exit the industry.  Which won't be a bad thing in the long run.

 

Now, I realize this is just a matter of opinion and I apologize if I have gotten away from the original purpose of this thread. I would say SW:G was always a niche game, as is EvE. So I voted 250k-500k. I'm not saying that SW:G being a niche game is bad. Even pre-NGE with about 250k people (if that number is corrrect) SW:G was still profitable and there is still a place for niche MMO's in todays market, like PotBS. I will say that if we had actually gotten the first version of the CU, the one that fixed alot of problems, probably would have reveresed the slow bleeding of subscriptions.

I disagree.  The hardcore market is gold, as proven by EVE's success.  Want to make money for a long time?  Follow the sandbox model.  EVE proves that a true sandbox that is pretty hardcore will grow over time, even as the game approaches being 5 years old.  EVE has more subscribers than any single SOE game, btw, having passed 220K and projected to close 2008 at 300k! 

Which player do you think over time pumps more money into the game, a hardocre EVE player, or a fickle, "i wantz shineyz" casual player who will pick up a game and drop it after at most weeks like most console players do?

"Casual" gaming will only make you money if it is:

1. Cheap to develop because you wont' have as long to recoup your development costs

2. Damn near perfect at release because while your "target audience" isn't expecting depth or complexity, being an uncommitted "casual" player he will expect "instant gratification" upon first starting the game.  Glaring bugs, stuff that doesn't work won't be tolerated. 

3. Budgeted in such a way as to be able to make money with HEAVY churn (ie: turnover of players).

In my mind, looking at EVE, and looking at the failure of damn near every MMO launched since WOW (except LOTRO) the sandbox model appealing to the committed, rather than the "casual" WOW clone is the much smarter investment.  Sandbox players, if handed a great framework, will tolerate more, will be more patient, and will stick it out for the long haul if made a partner in the process. 

The "casual" player has to be instantly satisfied with perfection right out of the gate, or your whole investment is wasted.  After all, he can choose another of the dozens of WOW clones that will be out soon, why does he have to play yours that has massive lag (despite low populations), a combat system that doesn't work, unrealistic graphics (stuff shooting through objects) to name a few examples of how badly put together the "casual" NGE game is?