WAR (Warhammer Online)

I think its fair to say that anyone playing wow WILL know someone that is going to drop WOW for WAR.  That in itself will amount to at least 500k - 1 million players over the first 6 months IMO.

So yes there will be a noticeable move from WOW and no it will not be the end of WOW by a long shot but a definite wake up call and a constant steady stream of players moving to WAR over the first year.

Originally posted by Iselin

 

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Originally posted by neonaka

 

 

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Originally posted by Iselin

 

Let's see... since everybody and their dog plays or has played WOW, everytime a new MMO worth playing launches it gets the bulk of their subscribers from WOW players... and WOW just keeps on trucking. With 10,000,000 players they can absorb the losses. Love it or leave it (I left it) WOW is here to stay. You, personally may loose a friend or two, but Blizzard won't notice.
I play LOTRO now and I'd say 90-95% of the players I've met there played WOW at some point in their life. In the 1 year since LOTRO launched, WOW subscriptions continued to increase.
So, yeah... there will be an exodus... and an influx... and they'll probably hit 11,000,000 after all is said and done.

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It will have the opposite effect of what this guy is talking about .
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In the end each will sit on 3.5 million or so subs and as AOC and WAR perfect what they do best within thier first year of release, we will hopefully and finally see the downfall of warcraft, and all eagerly await blizzards next attempt at crack in the form of a game.

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Allright, you're on. I'll mark this and come back sometime after next Christmas to collect my case of beer. :)

And for the record... I don't really care what happens to WOW either way. I'll be checking out both AOC and WAR (just like I did with Vanguard and LOTRO last year...LOTRO won for me) and will stick with the one I enjoy the most.
 

LOL that's what I'm talking about BEER! ALRIGHT!

CMON WAR DON'T LET ME DOWN NOW!!! BEER IS ON THE LINE!!! PULL THOSE SUBS!

Heh... Neonaka you are crazy (no offence meant).

There is no way any new MMO will repeat launch succes of WoW. It just won't happen. Most hyped / polished ones will probably start with 500k and _slowly_ climb to 1M, 2M if the game is really great / polished / casual friendly.

And about that WoW exodus, its not that easy. Majority of WoW players are casuals, they won't just drop their 1-2 year toons and run to new title that is just slightly beter that WoW. So unless something comes that offers true revolution in the gerne, wow won't drop in subs to much unless Blizzard will do something really stupid. (And as for now they are doing quite oposite, patch 2.4 seem like huge casual love patch from what i can tell.)

Another thing is, even if im wrong AoC will never reach numbers you claim, not in this year and probably not in next one. Why? Just looking at the screens you can tell system requirements will be preety harsh, such games don't sell to well

Originally posted by Vortigon

I think its fair to say that anyone playing wow WILL know someone that is going to drop WOW for WAR.  That in itself will amount to at least 500k - 1 million players over the first 6 months IMO.

 

So yes there will be a noticeable move from WOW and no it will not be the end of WOW by a long shot but a definite wake up call and a constant steady stream of players moving to WAR over the first year.

That could happen.

Yet you are assuming it will appeal to WoW players.. that it will appeal to them over a long period of time.

That it will release soon(tm) and will be a quility game.

But what if... it sucks?

Personally I would rather let the game release.. wait a year.  Then look at what happened.

Putting what many would see as an unreasonable expectation on a game that is still in beta.. sounds like a good way to end up with a mangled product imho.

Before WoW launched.. having 250,000-450,000 subs was success.

I don't know of many North American releases since WoW that can claim 1 million active subs...

Originally posted by Raztor

Originally posted by slask777

Originally posted by Raztor

Originally posted by iatre

 

Originally posted by fyerwall

I can see a small exodus from WoW to Warhammer, but not a noticable amount. I say around maybe 50k players who outright ditch thier WoW account, and more who will play both for a while.

 

I think you're off by a factor of at least 10. You seriously think only one half of one percent of WoW's player base is leaving? One out of 200?

My estimate is at least 1 out of 20 will leave WoW for WAR within the first month of release, with many more playing both games.

No, it's not going to kill WoW, but you're going to see at least 500,000 people make the switch.

 

I still prefer my HKO (Hello Kitty Online) theory better tbh. And funnily enough, there's more chances of it happening than what you're suggesting.

How can that be? WAR got over a half a million betatesters ffs, and alot more waiting to get in. Get your head out of blizzards fanbutt and smell reality for once.

So did lord of the rings online and they are now around 200k ish subscriptions. Get your head out of Mythic's fanbutt and smell reality for once. See what I did there?

Yes I can see what you did. You wrote exactly the same shit I wrote, just changed some words. Did you learn that somewhere? Oh, and provide urls for your 'facts' else its just random numbers pulled from nowhere and before you point any fingers my way, www.warhammeronline.com/english/home/index.php and check the number below the beta ticker on the middle, right side.

I would like to point out that Lord of The Rings Online is not Warhammer Online.

Originally posted by Shifty360

I would like to point out that Lord of The Rings Online is not Warhammer Online.

Ummm...yeah. I'm assuming by that you mean that even though LOTRO had negligible to no impact on WOW subscription, WAR, will because it's a better game...is that it? May turn out to be a better game but the impact won't be all that different.

Maybe you should take a look at http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart2.html

Let's assume that everyone who has previously played a Mythic MMO, as I did with Dark Age of Camelot, comes over to WAR... DAoC had a peak subscription of 250,000 four years ago and is now down to 50,000. Let's say all of us from 2004 come and add a bunch more who are fans of the Warhammer world... 300,000 sound about right? or are you putting a lot of stock on the 600,000 applicants for beta? 600K willing to play for free that is...how many will cough-up the cash on a monthly basis?

LOTRO had ~ 200,000 at launch... and the end result was a net INCREASE to WOW... I'm still having a hard time seeing WAR and AOC combined putting much a dent in the 10,000,000 WOW comunity... a comunity which, by the way, is more than half from places where neither WAR nor AOC will be available (China and vicinity)

Here's the WOW chart http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart1.html 

Notice which are the only 2 games that come anywhere near remotely close to WOW? Lineage (~3,000,000 at peak) and Lineage II (~2,000,000)... hmm.. I wonder where those games are most popular? North America? Europe? Oh, wait! Those are also mostly asian numbers.

Think of WOW as Windows and all the other MMOs as different versions of Linux and you'll get the picture.

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Originally posted by neonaka

 

{ Mod Edit }

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I neither play nor like WOW... haven't for a couple of years... Man, it felt good to say that!

Just stating the facts... I like my fantasy inside the games.

Originally posted by Iselin

 

Originally posted by Shifty360

I would like to point out that Lord of The Rings Online is not Warhammer Online.

Ummm...yeah. I'm assuming by that you mean that even though LOTRO had negligible to no impact on WOW subscription, WAR, will because it's a better game...is that it? May turn out to be a better game but the impact won't be all that different.

 

Maybe you should take a look at http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart2.html

Let's assume that everyone who has previously played a Mythic MMO, as I did with Dark Age of Camelot, comes over to WAR... DAoC had a peak subscription of 250,000 four years ago and is now down to 50,000. Let's say all of us from 2004 come and add a bunch more who are fans of the Warhammer world... 300,000 sound about right? or are you putting a lot of stock on the 600,000 applicants for beta? 600K willing to play for free that is...how many will cough-up the cash on a monthly basis?

LOTRO had ~ 200,000 at launch... and the end result was a net INCREASE to WOW... I'm still having a hard time seeing WAR and AOC combined putting much a dent in the 10,000,000 WOW comunity... a comunity which, by the way, is more than half from places where neither WAR nor AOC will be available (China and vicinity)

Here's the WOW chart http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart1.html 

Notice which are the only 2 games that come anywhere near remotely close to WOW? Lineage (~3,000,000 at peak) and Lineage II (~2,000,000)... hmm.. I wonder where those games are most popular? North America? Europe? Oh, wait! Those are also mostly asian numbers.

Think of WOW as Windows and all the other MMOs as different versions of Linux and you'll get the picture.

D