The fact is WAR has a lower system requirement and is WOW like. Many of the WOW community have already said they are moving to WAR and you can't underestimate the many millions of people who currently play low end MMORPG's that can run on their older PC's.

We will probably see AOC get maybe 500k subscribers, perhaps less but WAR on the other hand will get over a million subscribers on the first month of release.  This has everything to do with how good of a PC do you have. We already know WOW can run on a 8year old PC smoothly with a low end AGP video card, and so will WAR at launch. This gives a huge advantage to WAR and also because of what WOW did to path the road for WAR's launch.

Advantage WAR. AOC will struggle with finding that many people who can run the game decently with all that eyecandy turned on. Nobody wants to play a game like AOC on the lowest graphical setting and see how ugly the game will look, a game like AOC needs to have everything looking good or else you take away from the immersion aspect that game creates.  I could run AOC max settings on my 30'' LCD but I prefer WAR over AOC for the simple fact of pure enjoyment of seeing the millions of players that will be playing. More players = better PVP.

So here is the major POLL at which we will revisit after 1month of launch of each title and try and see if any info has been released on numbers yet.

Post your predictions and also use the polls below. Whoever is closer to the subscriber numbers for the 1month period will get nothing from me but perhaps a forum title could be rewarded for the winner???

My guess is 2.5mill War, AOC 500k

AOC poll below

You have an interesting definition of the word "fact".

Originally posted by Vincenz

You have an interesting definition of the word "fact".

Yeah to late to take it out, I wanted to say something else then Fact. Fact being my definitive on WAR being the more popular with the most subscribers. If you look at the history of the last 4 top MMORPG's you see how WOW went from 600k subs at it's first month to over 3mill in a few months. Now that people know what to expect from WAR and how it will run and how similar it is you can only guess they will have a huge advantage over AOC on subscribers in it's first month.

Edit: I was able to take that off the title for the thread, I never changed a title word before guess you can

lol 500k subscribers in the first month?  name ONE game that managed that.   500k in 2 or 3 months thats believable but not in 1month

Yea WAR will have more people playing it simply because it looks, plays and feels very much like WoW.

However, AoC will be a FAR better game. Mark my words :)

As to numbers, I'm not gonna say which game will get what. But as of right now, I think WAR will get a lot of people at first, but a great many of them will go back to WoW within 2 months.

AoC on the other hand will attract players looking for something different, that furthers the genre and has some innovation instead of upcoming MMOGs that are basically carbon copy typical MMOGs just trying to steal WoWs thunder. For that reason AoC will retain a lot more players, though probably the games over-all population won't be as high as WARs.. initially.

"Fact"?  ...what ever

Originally posted by Death1942

lol 500k subscribers in the first month?  name ONE game that managed that.   500k in 2 or 3 months thats believable but not in 1month

Yeah thats why it is a guess. AOC is by far one of the most global marketed advanced MMORPG to come out. Look at the European forums, there are some forums with over 2million people visiting them. I think AOC is got a leg up on over hype from day one and so has WAR, this is what I am basing my findings on and WOW did have a impressive 600k subscribers on it's first month if I do recall that press release.

I can confirm that the 'crap-o-meter' has offically blown a fuse when fed this threads contents...

I think AoC particularly, and possibly both games will actually see a drop from month 1 to month 2 and beyond.  It just doesn't deliver what has been promised and is expected by a lot of people.

Originally posted by Fion

Yea WAR will have more people playing it simply because it looks, plays and feels very much like WoW.

 

However, AoC will be a FAR better game. Mark my words :)

 

As to numbers, I'm not gonna say which game will get what. But as of right now, I think WAR will get a lot of people at first, but a great many of them will go back to WoW within 2 months.

Mark my words War will be far better game. Oh wait thats my opinion and it doesn t play like WOW my god enough of the WAR=WOW crap hell AOC probably has more similarities with WOW then WAR does.

I'm pretty sure WAR will be good.  AOC will be either really revolutionary or really bad.  I'm looking forward to both really, and will give them both a try unless one gets terrible reviews.

Will

sorry but even the giant that WoW turned out to be did not rake in over 500k subscribers in the 1st month.  its unrealistic especially now with all the cautious MMO players around (ex SWG, ex Vanguard and so on).

WAR will have a larger following but AoC is definatly the more intellectual game.  WAR is for those who want to get into PvP or have fun asap.  long term appeal is very small atm unless u love PvP and live for constant fighting (which is what Warhammer is all about so good job Mythic).  AoC on the other hand is a slower game to play but has a much better endgame prospect and long term appeal.

i will play both and i predict i will stay with AoC longer

Youre an idiot if you think AoC will have more subscribers than Warhammer. Warhammer is coming out after AoC, the people who dont like aoc will move to war.. common sense... im not playing either so its not bias

Maybe so but i don t think WAR will be a short term game i m sure it will have a very lasting appeal to alot other then just rvr this is my opinion of course.

Originally posted by Trenyt

I can confirm that the 'crap-o-meter' has offically blown a fuse when fed this threads contents...

In all honesty, speculating how many subscribers a game will get is pointless. Who gives a fig if it has 10 thousand or 10 million subscribers, at the end of the day the game is a success if you enjoy playing it. Plus the OPs post is full of  'hearsay' and your opinions are based on no factual evidence what-so-ever.

So what this thread boils down to is pointless humor, to amuse the flamebaiters and flamers alike, because your pitting two games against each other when this should not be the case. Im an avid Blizzard fan and have enjoyed and enjoy all their titles but at the end of the day I want a market that has variety which at the moment the MMO sector doesnt.

So I dont care which game gets 'more subscribers' aslong as they provide variety to a stale genre.

Originally posted by Trenyt

In all honesty, speculating how many subscribers a game will get is pointless. Who gives a fig if it has 10 thousand or 10 million subscribers, at the end of the day the game is a success if you enjoy playing it. Plus the OPs post is full of  'hearsay' and your opinions are based on no factual evidence what-so-ever.

So what this thread boils down to is pointless humor, to amuse the flamebaiters and flamers alike, because your pitting two games against each other when this should not be the case. Im an avid Blizzard fan and have enjoyed and enjoy all their titles but at the end of the day I want a market that has variety which at the moment the MMO sector doesnt.

So I dont care which game gets 'more subscribers' aslong as they provide variety to a stale genre.

Subscriber levels are more popular now then they ever where. It gives the company and players an idea on how well that MMO is doing. Notice my thread isn't about telling you in factual terms how many subs each will have but rather a nice thread to get people to make a guess. This is all for fun, not a flame thread where everyone can bash each person saying my title is going to be better then yours.

Yes I'm sure WAR will get 1 million subscribers. I mean the only competition they have the next WoW expansion, Age of Conan and Aion. I mean come on, it's completely normal for a western mmorpg to reach the 1 million subscriber mark [/sarcasm]

I don't follow these two IP's, Warhammer & Conan, very well so feel free to refute whatever I say.

Your numbers depend on how many fans will make the transition of the IP's primary form to video game form.  For Warhammer that's a board game and Conan a novel even though they both saw video game release form. (I'm not sure on the numbers of those games)

As has been repeated in the past WoW had a large following because millions were already playing the Warcraft series and since Blizzard made the next Warcraft in MMO form playing that was the next logical step for Warcraft enthusiasts.  Going into Asia, who definitely likes the Starcraft series, helped too.

LOTRO which I would think would be a strong IP in and of itself is sporting around 200k something subscribers if you believe a poster on that board.   I can because they usually argue a very well though out response. EDIT:  Want to make sure that is only understood as a guess and not actual fact END EDIT

Since that game was an IP from a novel form, which also saw some game releases, it will be interesting to see what the transition numbers to these IP's to MMO form will be.