VG has the same problem as EQ2, a bad start, SOE has enough money to keep it up for about 20-50 years, so i doubt they'll give up yet, and i've heard that VG is going through some changes at the moment...

Doubt it will be shut down. It's probably safest with SoE, its not like SoE going to disepair in the near future.

I'm not currently playing it, but I do have Station access, so I do try it now or then. To me it seems alot more stable and better performance compared to the 2 months I did play it active. Its a nice world they have, and some decent classes (just love the healers in that game). Whenever I cut down on EQ2 (no plans atm), VG is a good alterantive in my eyes.

why did eq2 have a bad start apart from a certain rival mmo being more popular

eq2 was great but grindy, too hard to solo, too many home town zones and no pvp areas, but these were not start up problems

BTW vanguard very stable and hardly any bugs just missed the boat now as no mmo recovers from bad start if it goes on too long and unlike LOTRO there are too many start up zones so still feels lonely (LOTRO has too few IMO)

ATB

Chrimwinster

Originally posted by Daffid011

 

No, you showed no proof other than the mmodata link and that doesn't even differentiate full subscribers vs station pass subscribers (which only a percentage of their sub fees go to the game based on time spent playing). 

 

 Simply saying "station pass" doesn't exlain anything or show that you somehow have insider information on their financials.  Are you trying to say stationpass provides profit/loss sheets or that simply being on the station pass guarentees a game makes enough money to sustain itself?

Show the link where they say they will relaunch.  I've asked a few people to provide it and so far none can.  Sigil said it, but never have I seen SOE say it.  Making a free trial isn't relaunching.  Advertising, new boxes... anything else?

My point is you criticize someone for not doing something then turn around and do the same thing yourself.

 As for Vanguard making enough to sustain iteself.  Who knows, but it has over twice the number of devs as SWG and the two games have similar populations.  Can it sustain twice the staff of swg on the same subscriber base?  That would be some magic for sure.

 To the other posters who don't want to blame SoE for any of vanguards faults, I can see that.  However Sigil was composed of mostly ex-soe people.  The heads in charge are certainly of that breed and Sigil was in bed for the last year or so with SoE.  Business as usual, but the programming talents were worth more than the game for SoE.  Getting a game they can put on life support station pass for pennies on the dollar was just a bonus. 

I'm not sure that there can be 'proof' anymore, but fortunately there is still logic, which helps to educate our guesses.

First, the word 'relaunch' is probably misleading, it was a term coined in Sigil days, but officially what they meant was after a year of work on the game optimizing and finishing it, they felt they would be ready with a trial island, that they could launch as a media campaign to re-stoke interest. This concept was in fact first stated by Sigil and then re-iterated and clarified by SOE. I went looking for it, but found that the 'soe/sigil discussion' forum had been removed from the official site. This may have been where it was, not sure, but it was most certainly out there for the public to digest. Now, if people have removed those interviews from their websites, I can't do anything about it. But wouldn't it only be logical that this fact is true? I mean, the only alternative is that there is some mass halucination that we are all experiencing. I guess take your pick, either SOE plans on investing in a media campaign to make their investment in Vanguard payoff, logically after it is polished, -or- everyone following Vanguard is under a mass dilusion that this was stated and SOE planned on investing millions (likely) in a game they planned not to fix or make money from.

Logically you don't need 'proof' to know that SOE has a long term business plan for the 30million dollar game they bought. Logically, it would involve finishing the game, polishing the game and then media blitzing it to the public. It may be unfortunate that the word 'relaunch' was bandied about for a bit, but I'm not sure what a 're-launch' would have to entail to make it different from the above.

The part about the station pass is a little off, but there is certainly some logical math that points to Vanguard doing just fine. Example, let us go with the widely accepted figure of 30k to 40k subscribers. Although this is certainly not fact, it could be lower or higher, but this is the number most have speculated most often. There is no place on earth you can go to find the actual paying subscriber numbers without committing a crime. Ok so here we go with the easy math. If 30k people are paying 14.99 a month then Vanguard has a revenue of 450, 000$ a month. If you go with the high number of 40k then it is making 600,000$ each month. But you may scream 'station pass' station pass....well, as you stated earlier, if you aren't playing VG then you aren't contributing to it. However, if you are playing it, the revenue increases. I would guess a relatively large percentage of VG players are paying 24.99 a month.

And so you may want your 'proof' now of 30k to 40k players. Well, it doesn't exist. So cut the number in half...still enough to pay for it. Double the number...now they are really raking in the dough. Logically, you don't need 'proof' to know VG is making money.

450k to 600k a month is quite enough to run VG and pay for the overhead, salaries, benefits and OT. The initial investment in VG was 30mil or so....it was paid for in 6 months. The game isn't on life support if it is generating that kind of revenue, if they have twice the developers working on VG, then isn't that 'proof' they are investing in the game?

Why attack on the employees who left SOE, work at SIGIL and then went back to SOE ? ....have you ever worked someplace you didn't like? Did you ever think at your job, this place is run so lousy, I could do better? Did you ever realize after leaving one job you hated, that it wasn't so bad after all? How would you feel if I were to judge your professional merits based on the fact that you worked at someplaces that were less than desirable? Oh! You worked at Wal-Mart? So that's who you've been in bed with...I'm sure you take your Wal-Marty ideas every where now. (Replace Wal-Mart with whatever job you had you hated). Those devs are people trying to make a living, they draw a paycheck, their bosses might be great, they may be lousy. They may be great bosses who churn out lousy games, they may be lousy bosses that turn out great games...these are just guys who said, 'hey, i can make computer games at SOE, that sounds like a job I want'. Which I would do, and probably you would as well. Really, would you morally object to working at SOE on the basis that they may A) corrupt you with their evil ways -or- B) Feel a moral obligation not to work there for what they did to SWG? In either case, you'd be insane to reject a developing job at Sony. Especially if the gamble you took on Sigil didn't pay off...which it didn't.  No need to defame these guys or suggest that because they are SOE they are automatically corrupt.

This is posted on Wikipedia (and is backed up by a reference) -

" The game has sold about 242,000 copies, while the number of active subscriptions (those who play longer than the free month included when buying the game) is around 130,000^{[3]. "}

I was just holding thullians feet to the fire for demanding links from someone and then making similar claims without practicing what he preaches. 

That aside I agree in to various degrees with what you say.  Does SOE have a gameplan for Vanguard, I think so.  I do think they got involved knowing this would happen and now they rehired those people with talent as that seems to be more valuable than a busted game with a bad reputation.  It isn't like they are investing millions and millions with the hope of reviving this game from the ashes.  Will it pan out to be a decent game with some strong aspects?  Sure it will. 

The whole 'relaunch' as you and I agree was a sigil statement, but as normal with internet forums is has grown to become some more than it was originally stated and people are stating it as some sort of promise by SOE.  As far as I can tell it isn't phantom post removals aside.    There is no guarentee or even indication that SOE is going to relaunch the game.  Just a trial with some graphics tweaks. 

By your math alone the game is at best making 600k before any overhead.  Less revenue than SWG and over twice the staff.  EQ2 has a better reputation, bigger team and more budget and it's "relaunch" didn't turn the game around jsut flattened its decline.  Matrix online was purchased for other assets and sits on life support.  It we are talking about logic as in writting on the wall, everything really points to life support considering how much work needs to be done and the pace it is coming.  Were you see logic I see people falling back on hope and faith that SOE is in this to rebuild the game.

Nikoz,

The number mentioned was about 90k at that wasn't a sure number from an anonymous source in may.

"Ex-Sigil: Numbers I heard yesterday were 90k. But I can't be sure. Actual subscription numbers were something management was very reluctant to tell us."

The game has 4 servers.  42,250 active accounts per server if what you say is true....

Originally posted by Nikoz78

This is posted on Wikipedia (and is backed up by a reference) -

" The game has sold about 242,000 copies, while the number of active subscriptions (those who play longer than the free month included when buying the game) is around 130,000^{[3]. "}

If VG had anywhere near 130K subscribers, they'd have more than 4 servers now. They'd also have almost three times the population of SWG.

By way of comparison, City of Heroes/Villains has about 150-160K subscribers and they've got around a dozen servers here in the States, and a few in the UK.

Also, that VG figure is from May, before the server merges. It's safe to say it's a wholly outdated figure by now.

Well the smart thing to do would be shutting it down, but apparently SOE's strategy is to have an armada of crappy games under their station pass so their players can cycle through them.

So in short Quantity > Quality is their motto.

Originally posted by Nikoz78

This is posted on Wikipedia (and is backed up by a reference) -

" The game has sold about 242,000 copies, while the number of active subscriptions (those who play longer than the free month included when buying the game) is around 130,000^{[3]. "}

lol.  Why not make it 5 million?  Just as accurate.  I would be willing to bet there are less than 10k VG subs and decreasing.  This time next year I seriously doubt VG will be around.

Wikipedia claims these sub numbers. Guess I should point out that the reference is linked to the interview from an ex-Sigil employee from f13.

Also, I believe SWG is sitting around the 75-90K mark these days (it's far from dead, as folks just love to claim). An SOE employee stated awhile back that people claiming SWG had low numbers (like 10k-50k) were 'way off. ' But then I played SWG since 2003 and to be honest the game never had a huge population. Certainly higher than present day, but nothing to write home about.

Except that SOE actually posted subscription numbers for the game once and it was around 350k.    The game was packed the first few months.  You couldn't buy a copy for weeks as they sold out so fast.

Now you can't even find a screenshot of more that 5 people outside mos eisley without it being a guild function.  I remember seeing more people in player cities and even the wilderness of yavin than I see in the entire game right now.

Originally posted by Tnice

 This time next year I seriously doubt VG will be around.

I provided a link and a reference. It's not my information. I humbly post it here at mmorpg.com for your review.

Feel free to form your own opinion.

If the american president makes a decision we are all intelligent enough to realise that it's not the decision of one man. He has a whole army of advisors and a backroonm staff. SOE isnot run by one man alone! surely people can see that. They too have a team that will analyse whether they can make a profit on VG. Now lets say for instance last month they realised they didnt have enouch active subs to run the servers they had up. Now they have to make a decision! cut the servers down to a number where we can cater for all the active subs and still make a profit. So would they keep running 4 servers knowing that they dont have enough active subs? I think if it was my company i would only keep 4 running if i had enough active subs to still make a profit. Now soe are most probably better at this game than me, they are probably more informed than any who post here! so if they have made a decision to run 4 servers surely even we can see that they must have enough active subs to still be making a profit?

Lets look at some points which i think point towards facts. Ok granted these can't be proved but lets face it not much can.

People still argue about this game! there are two sides. one plays the game, the other doesnt. what does that tell you? it tells you people play the game. like or not it's the closest you will come to fact.

Soe still employ people to work on this game. Am i wrong? of course not. So again whether it £1.00 or £1.000000 money is being invested Fact!

I like the game and have fun playing it FACT! no matter how much i am told that i dont really like it, i do FACT!

Even the people that dont like the game keep a keen interest of the game FACT!

i dont like sprouts FACT! but i dont convince others not to like them because i simply am not interested. yet still people that dont like VG will keep coming back again and again checking up on stats for VG and trying to come up with reasons it will die. it borders on obsession! i really hope i one day can play the game with as much commitement as you guys!

Originally posted by Daffid011

Now you can't even find a screenshot of more that 5 people outside mos eisley without it being a guild function. 

I took these personally at a base bust, etc. (just making a point about people who make false claims). Note:  none of these shots are in Mos Eisley (or even on Tattooine for that mater).

Originally posted by Nikoz78

Wikipedia claims these sub numbers. Guess I should point out that the reference is linked to the interview from an ex-Sigil employee from f13.

Also, I believe SWG is sitting around the 75-90K mark these days (it's far from dead, as folks just love to claim). An SOE employee stated awhile back that people claiming SWG had low numbers (like 10k-50k) were 'way off. ' But then I played SWG since 2003 and to be honest the game never had a huge population. Certainly higher than present day, but nothing to write home about.

Wikipedia is also a notoriously unreliable source because it's user edited, and even companies have been known to go in and "clean up" articles about themselves. It might give decent general information about stuff, but don't ever take it as gospel.

And SWG, at least according to that MMOGData site, is currently sitting at 49K as of the end of August '07. Not only that, they supposedly had a rather nasty drop in subs after March of this year.

I don't know how reliable that is either, but it's the closest to real numbers we're going to get from SOE, who as a rule don't release subscriber info about their games.

Originally posted by Daffid011

 

Originally posted by Thillian

Originally posted by Daffid011

 

Originally posted by Thillian

Please provide links to those forum threads.

Vanguard has 30.000 subs currently. Making enough to pay for itself. SoE is planning re-releasea and another investment. Don't scare the public!

You know it really isn't fair to ask someone to provide links/proof and then turn around and not do the same.

 

 

Can you show where you get your figures and facts from?

a) 30,000 subscriber

http://mmogdata.voig.com

b) the cost/revenue of what it takes to run vanguard showing that it is indeed paying for itself (start with the overhead of 45 devs maybe?)

Station pass explains all.

c) that SoE is planning a re-release (I heard sigil say this many times, but NEVER SoE.  Making a free island trial is not a re-release with advertising and boxes on shelves)

That was officially announced on official Vanguard forums.

d) investing more in the game. 

 They gonna invest into rerelease + trial island + re-advertising, new manuals, new boxes as its stated in the official announce.

 

You make some rather concrete statements about a game that is anything but stable at the moment.  So please feel free to list your sources as you have asked someone else do.

 Good enough ?

 

 

No, you showed no proof other than the mmodata link and that doesn't even differentiate full subscribers vs station pass subscribers (which only a percentage of their sub fees go to the game based on time spent playing). 

 

 

Simply saying "station pass" doesn't exlain anything or show that you somehow have insider information on their financials.  Are you trying to say stationpass provides profit/loss sheets or that simply being on the station pass guarentees a game makes enough money to sustain itself?

Show the link where they say they will relaunch.  I've asked a few people to provide it and so far none can.  Sigil said it, but never have I seen SOE say it.  Making a free trial isn't relaunching.  Advertising, new boxes... anything else?

My point is you criticize someone for not doing something then turn around and do the same thing yourself.

 

As for Vanguard making enough to sustain iteself.  Who knows, but it has over twice the number of devs as SWG and the two games have similar populations.  Can it sustain twice the staff of swg on the same subscriber base?  That would be some magic for sure.

 

To the other posters who don't want to blame SoE for any of vanguards faults, I can see that.  However Sigil was composed of mostly ex-soe people.  The heads in charge are certainly of that breed and Sigil was in bed for the last year or so with SoE.  Business as usual, but the programming talents were worth more than the game for SoE.  Getting a game they can put on life support station pass for pennies on the dollar was just a bonus.

 

Look Daffid, I didnt start this thread to moan that VG is dying and has hardly 7500 subs. I provided a link where it shows it has 30k subs. If you have better and more reliable information other than your personnal opinion link it here.

Originally posted by Nikoz78

This is posted on Wikipedia (and is backed up by a reference) -

" The game has sold about 242,000 copies, while the number of active subscriptions (those who play longer than the free month included when buying the game) is around 130,000^{[3]. "}

That 130 000 may have been the total amount of players that ever paid a monthly subscription to  vanguard but it most certainly isnt the number of players now subscribing to the game.  The number I've heard most commonly is @ 20,000 - 30,000.  I'd be surprised if it's much more than that.  Even with the merged servers the population still isnt what it was at release.

What you think you proving with pictures?

Most of us have pictures just like this one of long ago but these pics mean squat.. Trying to pass off pics of crowds is an old trick, even doctoring dates is too.

Originally posted by caldis

 

Originally posted by Nikoz78

This is posted on Wikipedia (and is backed up by a reference) -

" The game has sold about 242,000 copies, while the number of active subscriptions (those who play longer than the free month included when buying the game) is around 130,000^{[3]. "}

 

That 130 000 may have been the total amount of players that ever paid a monthly subscription to  vanguard but it most certainly isnt the number of players now subscribing to the game.  The number I've heard most commonly is @ 20,000 - 30,000.  I'd be surprised if it's much more than that.  Even with the merged servers the population still isnt what it was at release.

I knew evidence drops were rare compared to rumor and hearsay but damn, this is madness (go on, you know you want to).

SOE is working on the next update, a trial island, and a re-release. These are factual plans that have been factually posted by factual Sony people. This is in the works right now, it's not "some vague future plan" that may still get scrapped. After that, who knows. But for now, Vanguard is going nowhere but forward.