indelible's MMORPG.com Gaming Blog

An extension of my new gaming blog: http://dotdotdashblog.blogspot.com

Author: dotdotdash

Over the years me and my close friends have spent a great deal of time discussing the merits of the Free2Play market versus the merits of the Pay2Play market. In the end we always reasoned that a well presented and non-exploitative Free2Play model will always outperform any Pay2Play model, regardless of the prices involved, because in reality the Pay2Play model is exploitative by default. Of course at the time we played World of Warcraft exclusively and so our conversations inevitably rounded on the “Big Debate” that many hardcore WoW players have had: when will Blizzard march towards a Free2Play model?

It always stood to reason that Blizzard were not going to jump to the Free2Play model out of free and unpressured choice. Whilst Pay2Play was not hampering player growth Blizzard could get away with charging a premium for access to the game without fear of driving away potential customers. These days however things aren’t looking so bright for the behemoth MMO; earlier in the year Blizzard confirmed a massive 5% subscriber decline over the course of 3 months. What was odd about this decline was that is wasn’t the usual seasonal decline, or the decline Blizzard are used to seeing when a new challenger launches into the MMO space. This decline, perhaps THE decline many MMO pundits have been waiting for, was a consistent downward trend new to World of Warcraft and based on the atmosphere on the WoW forums (as well as in my own multi-gaming guild) the decline hasn’t abated.

It’s easy to assume, maybe erroneously so, that World of Warcraft is entering its twilight years.

That could all be changed however if Blizzard make one little alteration to the way it delivers World of Warcraft. The Pay2Play model is now hampering the games potential for growth and whilst many die-hard World of Warcraft players claim they would abandon the game if Blizzard ever dropped the subscription model, there is more than enough evidence that this is largely hot air coming out of a “social elite” within the game. Other, less established franchises have made the jump to the model and subsequently confirmed massive surges in optional subscriptions as well as whopping profit margin increases on the back of micro-transaction based content. If these observations and projections are extended to World of Warcraft Blizzard could maintain their $1 billion plus margins for years to come without the need to maintain the arguably restrictive subscription model.

Of course there are those who will contest that there is no sign Blizzard intend to move World of Warcraft over to such an economic model at any point in the near future, if at all; I would disagree. The truth is that Blizzard have been testing the water when it comes to micro-transactions for the past year or so, carefully quizzing players without their knowledge on just what they’d be willing to spend their money on. Service orientated offerings that add new layers to the game have been unveiled under Blizzards “Premium” brand of WoW orientated offerings but players have quickly condemned such actions vocally; Blizzard now know they can’t charge for seemingly game altering features such as Cross Realm Grouping for instances without alienating a small but dedicated element of the player base. On the other hand Blizzard have learned that players are more than willing to spend through the tooth to get hold of in game pets and mounts, meaning that Blizzard can make their bread and butter out of easily developed and implemented vanity items that could potentially make them millions in a few hours (as their first mount did by netting them a cool $2 million in under 24 hours). Whilst many will argue that this is just another form of corporate greed and not a sign of Blizzard’s intent towards Free2Play I would again disagree. Blizzard are always very careful when it comes to content additions, preferring to test the current with small alterations and experiments before they move full pace in one particular direction. We’ve seen this with past changes to major content and we’ve also seen it with service offerings such as cross-realm transfers and other account orientated services.

Of course the most obvious sign of their intentions came with the additions of the “unlimited trial”, a move many viewed as an effort to boost ailing subscriptions. It didn’t work, but what it has certainly shown Blizzard is that there is a healthy and not unsubstantial amount of people out there that would be willing to play (and pay for) World of Warcraft if they did not feel forced into the arrangement. After all, the illusion of choice is better than no choice at all.

Whatever the future holds for World of Warcraft I think it’s safe to assume that Free2Play is very much on Blizzard’s mind. With Star Wars The Old Republic and Guild Wars 2 ushering in a new generation for MMOs, World of Warcraft stands to be the next Ultima Online or Everquest of the MMO world; the aged grandfather that players refer to in hushed tones. The Free2Play model could ensure that World of Warcraft remains relevant to gamers for another near-decade to come. Blizzard have already shown their willingness to move into new and controversial waters with the addition of an RMT driven Auction House to Diablo 3, as well as a freely tradable new pet to the Pet Store (that effectively allows players to buy currency off of Blizzard directly without having to resort to seedy third party sellers). A move to Free2Play would not be out of character for a a studio clearly willing to take risks by messing with the established formulas they have pioneered.

In short, don’t be surprised if the next expansion or two ushers in a hybrid Free2Play model for World of Warcraft, and don’t be surprised if it cements World of Warcraft at the top of the MMO charts for years to come.

http://dotdotdashblog.blogspot.com/2011/10/world-of-warcraft-march-to-free2play.html