Since top 10 lists of primitive nature are a thing at the moment, I decided I'd throw in the towel by jumping into the ring of doom and pitting my predictions against those of the blogging vets. So what do Armageddon, 2012, John Cusack and the Mayan Calendar have in common? MMORPG rankings of course... no? ... wait I was just informed a few of those options have nothing to do with MMO's but do not allow that to crush the seriousness of the information I'm about to unveil to you though. Straight from Pandora's Box into the palm of your hands I give you some stolen goods, that makes you an accomplice because you now know about it. Sorry.
Now for clarification this list will detail a games success from December 2011 - December 2012 and by success I mean cash flow. Sales & Subs ftw?
#10 Who knows...
The greatest WoW similar to date... the first MMO to launch with polish in years... the first title Trion Worlds ever made? Yup that's Rift, like it or hate it for biased illogical troll face reasons... Rift is a solid MMO. I don't play it anymore but I don't bash it. The god mode Mage era killed it for me but I won't bash it. They made some mistakes and made a lot of things right. Rift has retention, how much? I don't know for sure but I don't think it's going anywhere anytime soon. The new games with pretty boxes and the hype machines will do more sales in 2012 but when pitted against every game other than WoW that has been out I think Rift will dwarf it. Rift is solid graphics, polished game play, a lot of dungeons and raids, a ton of rifts and now they're putting in PvP content. GG
300-400k will remain
#8 The Secret World
Funcom creates the most unique setting for a MMO to exist thus far, modern day in a what if every nightmare scenario came true type of thing. But... it's Funcom and that's scary in itself. I love the idea and the videos look amazing, the information sounds FUN sounds GOOD but... it's Funcom. There is no company I fear more at selling me a product and letting every player leave before they start to fix anything than that of Funcoms inability to coherently manage their products. I mean seriously... are you guys legitimate game designers? Do you have business skills? Age of Conan could of completely decimated the competition from launch to now but faltered at the hands of Funcom...
The game has gone f2p and people are still so destroyed by Funcom they refuse to try it out. So Funcom... here we go again, a new and innovative game that could blow up in a MAJOR way and attract all sorts of players from console horror fans to fantasy gamers who want the dive into the mystery and gore... but are you going to let another title fail? I'm aware you almost went bankrupt and barely managed to get by after the AoC subs left... Did you learn your lesson? Please tell me you did... because I'm a fan of the industry and if you kill what I'd consider to be one of the most unique products on the market ever... I may cry
Potential: 1 Million, After people see "Funcom" 500k
TERA was the first game to get largely popular advertising this new age of action oriented combat but the reviews aren't that great. I've played the game on the Korean Client and was not impressed, um although take into consideration En Masse claimed early on to have complete control over the game to change it any way they want so it sales to the NA/EU player-base... I guess we'll see how much that was to quiet the rumbling of another Korean game as opposed to being true. Still it has a different combat system, open world, ffa pvp, unique and fun races/classes (mainly because of the combat system) and a political system that lets douche bags run your life... it's like the government all over again =(. Either way I see this game doing some decent numbers and pretty much absorbing the NA/EU asian mmo market. Aion goes on life support.
#6 Arche Age
Arche Age is a unique specimen, it's a mix of a sandbox world with a theme park system with some aspects of sandbox progression. I mean you tab target and level up but can be thrown into the slammer for ganking too many of your kinfolk. FFA PvP, Naval combat, Guild Cities and player housing = massive selling points and the PvE doesn't completely and utterly make me regurgitate my breakfast like Dark Falls did. So with this game launching over seas first and here by the end of the year I'm throwing this bad boy in the mix for a million subs. People claim to want a game like this if they don't play it I'm simply going to psychiatric blog helping people discover their own likes and dislikes.
750k-1 Million (World Wide)
#5 DOTA 2
Dota 2 will have a strong player base for a few reasons. All HoN players will flock to DOTA 2, LoL players who cant rank up will flock to DOTA 2, Long Term LOL players who are "tired" of LoL so they go play a reskinned LoL will flock to DOTA 2 and the rebels, those who hate anything mainstream will go to DOTA 2. All and All that's a lot of players! Dota 2 will be successful and provide more people with outlets of rage and e peen stroking. Live cam feeds will be on the decline if anymore of these games launch.
Oh and just to touch up on something that may of bunched some panties, yes DOTA 2 is a re-skinned LoL. LoL is a DOTA clone, LoL is much more successful than DOTA EVER WAS!!! EVER!!! so which game do you think DOTA 2 took from? I mean just look at the character designs and art style to answer that.
750k - 1 million @ the end of 2012, HoN dies.
#4 League of Legends
The top MOBA on the market will continue to be the top MOBA on the market. and before anyone rages with a bunch of exclamation marks as to why League of Legends is under SWTOR or any other MMO's and then want's to throw numbers out there... No. Accounts created and Active players are different stories. LoL is a f2p and anyone can make 1,000 accounts if they so choose. The active player base in NA is much smaller but EU has a strong burst of life... so much in fact they had to split EU in 2 regions! League of Legends is launching it's asian client and I believe will have between 1-2 million active players world wide. It still ranks 4th because theres no box sales. DOTA 2 tried to dwarf LoL by offering 1 million dollars in a tournament following Riots 100k last year... so Riot then offered 5 million. GG.
1-2 Million @ the end of 2012
#3 Star Wars: The Old Republic
This game is going to be good for the industry, a company like Bioware releasing a MMO should really help shapen the future of games to come. I know a lot of people are consumed with the same over bearing hatred that makes them detest WoW, Hate GW2 and SWTOR... but the thing you need to realize are those people are the dim minority, sure you see a lot of hate because they scream louder and more often but they are still the minority. SWTOR brings the closest movie oriented experience to a massively multiplayer game that we "May" ever see. It has the name alone to earn a million to 2 million box sales but... the big question is can it maintain subscribers. Only WoW maintains subscribers and that's because a majority of them are in the east. NA/EU fans have ADD, they get bored and hate everything after a month, pardon my biased but it's been true for a while now.
I'm going to say SWTOR will have a much larger retention than other MMO's but without Rifts style of constant content patches it'll greatly weaken in the first 6 months. Rift is the only game to offer their level of content adding so I don't know. It's possible but Bioware has other games to make too, Trion has much less to work on than Bioware. Stay Tuned.
1-2 million @ the end of 2012
#2 Guild Wars 2
Contrary to popular fanboi(ism) and hate mongering Guild Wars 2 will be the next big thing in the MMO front. When you offer the industry a revamped combat system, solid visuals, action oriented game play, large open world, balance so well done it's picked up by E-Sports.. you offer the MMO World the next big thing. Now I would never count WoW out but a part of me things this game could rival World of Warcraft in player base because lets look at facts. League of Legends is a start up f2p DOTA clone that then eventually grew to be worth 554 million dollars after getting snatched up as a e-sport.
Dota is a much more niche market then MMO's are so you can hate through every orphus in your body and throw all logic out the window when you spew your vomit and belligerence on Arena Nets gem. It's not going to change what this game achieves and this game will achieve success with 1/10th of WoW's numbers because that alone would be the second biggest MMO atm (Asia not included) Now take into note that there's no monthly fee and can be played on and off at anytime and come second to any other MMO addiction you currently have. That sounds like success to me as I know GW2 will be on my desktop for years and even if it's not my main love it'll be my girl on the side.
4-5 Million @ the end of 2012
#1 WORLD OF WARCRAFT
Yes that's right folks, the supreme ruler of souls does it again with little to no effort. Warcraft sits upon it's Frozen Throne laughing as it reigns chaos down on all competition. On December 21st, 2012 when said destruction sits on our horizon, the only gathering of 12 million people potentially unified anywhere on this planet combine together and care bear stare the oncoming apocalypse as a humanoid pixilated Voltron and then bow to earths new ruler. The Liche King. GG
9-10 Million @ the end of 2012